Latest news with #DavidLjunggren
Reuters
11 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Bank of Canada says risk of severe global trade conflict has diminished
OTTAWA, July 30 (Reuters) - The risk of a severe and escalating global trade conflict has diminished since April and there is some clarity about what U.S. tariffs will look like, the Bank of Canada said on Wednesday. But for the second quarter in a row, the bank did not issue regular economic forecasts, citing the uncertainty over the direction of U.S. trade policy. Instead it issued three scenarios as to what might happen. In the current tariff scenario, based on conditions on July 27, GDP grows by about 1% in the second half of 2025 and then picks up, hitting 1.8% in 2027. Inflation stays at around 2%. In the de-escalation scenario, where the U.S. and others cut tariffs, growth hits about 2% in the second half of 2025 and then averages 1.7% through the end of 2027. Inflation falls in the first quarter of 2026 before rising close to 2% in 2027. In the escalation scenario, where the U.S. and others raise tariffs, growth falls in 2025 before picking up in the first half of 2026 and rising to an average of 2%. Inflation rises to just above 2.5% in the third quarter of 2026 and then falls to around 2% in 2027. (Reporting by David Ljunggren, editing by Promit Mukherjee) ((Reuters Ottawa bureau, +1 647 480 7921; opens new tab)) Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/FORECASTS
Reuters
5 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Canada budget deficit over first two months of 2025/26 jumps to C$6.50 bln
OTTAWA, July 25 (Reuters) - Canada recorded a sharply higher C$6.50 billion ($4.71 billion) budget deficit for the first two months of the 2025/26 fiscal year as government expenditures grew but revenues stalled, the finance ministry said on Friday. By comparison, the deficit in the same period a year earlier had been just C$3.82 billion, it said in a statement. Program expenses rose 4% on increases across all major categories of spending. Public debt charges increased by 3.8% largely because of higher rates of government bonds. Year-to-date revenues marginally increased by C$26 million, largely reflecting lower corporate income tax and lower revenues from GST. This was partly offset by higher income from customs import duties and personal income tax revenue. Canada's government has been earning higher import duty revenues because of counter-tariffs on the U.S. in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs. The data showed that customs import duties for the first two months of the fiscal year jumped 180% from the same period a year ago. On a monthly basis, Canada posted a deficit of C$228 million in May, compared to a C$1.17 billion surplus in May 2024. ($1 = 1.3701 Canadian dollars) (Reporting by Promit Mukherjee, editing by David Ljunggren) ((Reuters Ottawa bureau; opens new tab)) Keywords: CANADA BUDGET/
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of Canada survey: firms less worried by worst-case tariff scenarios
By Promit Mukherjee and David Ljunggren OTTAWA, July 21 (Reuters) - Canadian businesses see less chance of a worst-case tariffs scenario but remain cautious and are keeping hiring and investment under check, the Bank of Canada said in a regular quarterly survey on Monday. Firms' short-term inflation expectations have returned to levels observed at the end of last year and the number of businesses planning for recession has declined slightly, the bank's Business Outlook Survey said. Earlier this year firms had fretted that U.S. tariffs would hit the economy hard, triggering inflation, weak economic growth and joblessness. But their impact has largely been contained to the steel, aluminum and automobile sectors. Inflation, job numbers and the economy have not deteriorated markedly. "Tariffs and related uncertainty ... continue to have major impacts on businesses' outlooks. However, the worst-case scenarios that firms envisioned last quarter are now seen as less likely to occur," the survey said. Around one-third of the firms expect higher tariff-related costs, down from roughly two-thirds in the last quarter, the bank said. A separate monthly survey of business leaders suggests the outlook amongst companies, especially exporters, improved as few have been directly affected by the tariffs so far. But there is still widespread uncertainty on how the U.S. measures and their impacts will play out in the economy. The business outlook indicator - a metric of what business prospects look like under current economic conditions - fell to its lowest level in a year to a negative 2.42. The quarterly survey said around 35% of the firms reported their indicators of order books, advance bookings and sales inquiries had deteriorated compared with 12 months ago as against 29% who said indicators had improved. Investment intentions remain muted, the survey said, adding the balance of opinion is well below its long-term average. Analysts and economists say the business outlook survey gives the central bank more teeth to take a call on rates. The Bank of Canada has kept its key rate steady at 2.75% since April. Only around 12% of the current money market bets show a likely cut on July 30 when the bank will announce its monetary policy decision. A separate survey by the central bank into consumer expectations showed 64.5% of Canadians expect a recession within the next 12 months, down from 66.5% in the first quarter. "The trade conflict is leading consumers to become increasingly cautious about their spending plans and to change their spending behavior," the report said. Many respondents wanted to spend money on Canadian goods and local vacations. ((Reuters Ottawa bureau)) Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/
Reuters
21-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Bank of Canada survey: firms less worried by worst-case tariff scenarios
By Promit Mukherjee and David Ljunggren OTTAWA, July 21 (Reuters) - Canadian businesses see less chance of a worst-case tariffs scenario but remain cautious and are keeping hiring and investment under check, the Bank of Canada said in a regular quarterly survey on Monday. Firms' short-term inflation expectations have returned to levels observed at the end of last year and the number of businesses planning for recession has declined slightly, the bank's Business Outlook Survey said. Earlier this year firms had fretted that U.S. tariffs would hit the economy hard, triggering inflation, weak economic growth and joblessness. But their impact has largely been contained to the steel, aluminum and automobile sectors. Inflation, job numbers and the economy have not deteriorated markedly. "Tariffs and related uncertainty ... continue to have major impacts on businesses' outlooks. However, the worst-case scenarios that firms envisioned last quarter are now seen as less likely to occur," the survey said. Around one-third of the firms expect higher tariff-related costs, down from roughly two-thirds in the last quarter, the bank said. A separate monthly survey of business leaders suggests the outlook amongst companies, especially exporters, improved as few have been directly affected by the tariffs so far. But there is still widespread uncertainty on how the U.S. measures and their impacts will play out in the economy. The business outlook indicator - a metric of what business prospects look like under current economic conditions - fell to its lowest level in a year to a negative 2.42. The quarterly survey said around 35% of the firms reported their indicators of order books, advance bookings and sales inquiries had deteriorated compared with 12 months ago as against 29% who said indicators had improved. Investment intentions remain muted, the survey said, adding the balance of opinion is well below its long-term average. Analysts and economists say the business outlook survey gives the central bank more teeth to take a call on rates. The Bank of Canada has kept its key rate steady at 2.75% since April. Only around 12% of the current money market bets show a likely cut on July 30 when the bank will announce its monetary policy decision. A separate survey by the central bank into consumer expectations showed 64.5% of Canadians expect a recession within the next 12 months, down from 66.5% in the first quarter. "The trade conflict is leading consumers to become increasingly cautious about their spending plans and to change their spending behavior," the report said. Many respondents wanted to spend money on Canadian goods and local vacations. ((Reuters Ottawa bureau)) Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/
CTV News
10-06-2025
- Business
- CTV News
Canada's antitrust watchdog sues DoorDash over prices, discounts
A Doordash delivery bag is seen in New York City on May 9, 2022. (Andrew Kelly/Reuters via CNN Newsource) Canada's Competition Bureau said on Monday it was suing DoorDash and its Canadian subsidiary for allegedly advertising misleading prices and discounts. The bureau said in a statement it found that consumers were unable to purchase food and other items at the advertised price on DoorDash's websites and mobile applications due to the addition of mandatory fees at checkout. The bureau said it was suing to stop DoorDash from what it called deceptive price and discount advertising. It is seeking a penalty from the companies and wants them to offer restitution to affected consumers. In response, DoorDash said it did not hide fees from consumers or mislead consumers and said the bureau was wrong. 'We believe that this ... is an overly punitive attempt to make an example of an industry leader in local commerce,' it said in a statement. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Mark Porter and Paul Simao)
