Latest news with #DavidSeif
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Walmart & Target earning to offer look at consumer health
Investors will get insight into the health of the economy and the state of the consumer with earnings from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT). Nomura's chief economist, David Seif, and Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Allie Canal outline what investors need to know. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Opening Bid. Consumer Price Index. People got excited by rate cuts. You got the PPI out. Uh, that was a little hot retail sales this morning. Uh, the prior month, June, was revised up. July was okay. Like, what the hell is going on out there? I thought this economic data was supposed to get hit because of tariffs. Well, you know, you know, you're certainly not seeing that. And and and, uh, it it had been our view that that we we we could easily see that this month. I think it was the view of a lot of people, but, um, when you look at the inflation data, yes, it was a little bit hot, but it was certainly not hot due to tariffs. Um, and so, when we look back at the past several months, sort of, uh, ex-tariffs, um, notwithstanding this month, it actually has been, um, a a slowing of, uh, inflation. You can put the the the year-over-year change up there, but but you know, if you look just at back at sort of where is sort of the rolling three-month average of inflation gone. So so zeroing in on more recent history, um, things had been coming down for a while and only backtracked a little bit this month. Uh, this, you know, for the data that came out this week. And then when we, you know, when we dig into it, the things that caused inflation were really not the things that, uh, that the Fed has said it was worried about, meaning it really wasn't stuff that was related to, uh, to tariffs. Um, so, when when that's all put together, uh, we don't think that the inflation data was hot enough for the Fed to deviate from its, uh, from its SEP, which had, uh, or its summary a dot plot so to speak, which is, uh, for a cut in, uh, in September, and then another one in December. And then, you know, today we looked at the retail sales data, and you can see that the consumer is still pretty strong. Um, I think a lot of the reason the consumer is still doing so well relatively speaking is that, um, even if there's been some weakening of the labor market, some loss of momentum, you're still really not seeing people being fired. Um, you're not seeing companies lay off. You're seeing companies hire less people, fewer people, but not really lay anyone off. And it's when people are getting laid off that they tend to rapidly slash their spending. Um, with that really not being what's going on right now, it it it leads the consumer to still be pretty healthy and still probably willing to continue to spend at a at at least a decently robust pace. David, economists love to characterize economies and letters: Ws, Us, uh, Zs, As, whatever it is. What what type of economy does this look like to you? You you know, it looks sort of like a hyphen. So, I'm gonna I'm gonna I haven't heard that one before. I've been doing this for 20 years. I've never heard that one before. That's pretty good. Well, you know, the economy is losing a little bit of momentum. Um, it's slowing. That was something that was happening already when when, uh, Trump became president this time. And it's really just on the back of the the fading of the, you know, massive stimulus post Covid. So, that's all gone now. We revert a little bit down to to to trend and probably revert a little bit below trend because there is still some impact of the tariffs. But what this isn't, and this is what I really think is is most important. This is not a collapse. We don't see a recession or anytime soon. We don't see a spike in the unemployment rate that would be characteristic of a of a deeper slowdown. So, we're sort of muddling along. Uh, certainly doesn't look fantastic right now with the slowdown in, uh, in, uh, job creation, but it looks far from terrible. Ali, last word to you here. Uh, big week coming up for earnings: Walmart, Target, uh, and even Home Depot. It's these names that are going to put this thesis of, yeah, we need a rate cut or we might get one, I think to the test. If these, uh, results come out like garbage and we don't get strong outlooks, none of that's going to be good. Right, and we've been talking about the state of the consumer, and that really is what all this hinges on. As long as consumers keep spending, if the economy can keep chugging along, that's a good thing. And that really whips back around to the labor side of the equation. We were just talking about how we're not seeing many layoffs at this point, and that's really why we've seen this economy sustain itself at this point. But the results that we get next week, Walmart, obviously, a big bellwether when we think about the consumer, and it's not just the results. It's really the commentary on the earnings call. You really have to take all this data and aggregate, not just the eco data, also the earnings commentary, the results. That's really going to give you the best picture of the economy, and when it comes to the consumer, these are the companies that you want to be hearing from. So, big earnings week to really round out what's been a pretty chaotic summer, yet we still have stocks at record highs. Related Videos Standard Chartered, Joby, Target downgrade: Trending Tickers Salesforce gets an upgrade at DA Davidson Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold Apple shares. Should you? 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Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How Trump's meeting with Putin impacts investors
US President Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Slatestone Wealth chief market strategist and host of Yahoo Finance's Trader Talk, Kenny Polcari, shares his expectations for the meeting and how it could move markets, while Nomura's chief economist David Seif examines the potential economic impact of the meeting's outcome. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Opening Bid. Kenny, I want to go over to you here. This is a market that is still inclined to trade on economic data rather than geopolitical events, but this meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin could that change the tone of the market, do you think? Listen, it can change the tone temporarily. Geopolitical stuff can cause chaos, short term chaos in the market because it doesn't really price stocks in the long term. So on a day like today, everybody's gonna be paying attention. They want to see how long Trump stays in the room or not in the room, right? He's already made it very clear. If he stays in there less than five minutes, there's no deal, he doesn't want to talk about it. And there's going to be more more threats and sanctions on Russia. If the if the if the meeting goes longer than five minutes, then we can all assume that maybe they're making some progress. And that should help to settle things down. So yes, while it's not gonna price stocks in the long term, people should be paying attention although it's not going to hit until 3:00 this afternoon just because of the time difference. So the market may not have a lot of time to react. David, good to see you here this morning, David. What What Hey, how are you? Good. What are the economic ramifications of a meeting like this? Well, you know, I think that the the Russia Ukraine war, of course, is is sort of a travesty, um, from a humanitarian basis. It's not a first order importance to the United States. And I actually think that if there were to be some sort of a solution, either coming out of this meeting, or or in the near future, uh, one of the biggest beneficiaries at least in sort of the developed world would actually be Europe. Europe has this war on its on this war on its doorstep. And, um, solving it would unlock a lot of the potential that, uh, or undo a lot of the hit that occurred in 2022 when the war began. Uh, In addition, I think other countries could benefit such as India because that would allow them to avoid these, the the tariffs that Trump has talked about from trading with Russia. And so relief from those could also be a benefit to, uh, to India in particular, which is is one of the main trading partners with Russia that's also been a historic US ally. Ali, I've been making the argument all week, the market has totally forgotten about geopolitical risks, so focused on corporate earnings, what's happening with interest rates, but look, any bad headline from this meeting will likely dent stocks. Full stop. Look, Brian, geopolitical risks are always lurking around the corner, and you often don't know when they're going to hit. And I referenced earlier that Israel-Iran escalation, and that really took markets by surprise. We saw that intense spike in oil. We saw equities fall. There was a lot of concern whether we could be heading into a World War III situation. So that's always something that you have to keep in mind. But I totally agree with you. There's just a lot of momentum in stocks right now. There's a lot of risk trading. We are looking at Big Tech cap companies continuing to outperform. Crypto stocks have surged. And like you were saying, earnings have really been a big driver for that. And across the board, we've seen analysts raise their forecast for the S&P 500, specifically citing earnings. And it's not just earnings expectations for 2025. It's really for 2026 and beyond as well. So that is where the optimism is stemming from that this rally has legs and that it can also continue to trade higher from here. And I've been speaking to a lot of sources about whether or not we are overbought in this market. And they tell me no, that we're really at a fair value considering where earnings are and how the fundamental story has largely remained intact. Of course, we saw those hotter than expected inflation reports this week. TBD on the impact of that will have on the Fed and equities and trade policy moving forward. Kenny, I originally met you eons ago down the New York Stock Exchange trading floor. So let's pretend we are back there right now. What trades do you put in or put on going into the close, knowing that this meeting with Trump and Putin will happen likely 30 minutes before the market closes? So I think you have to decide on where you stand, right? I'm more optimistic. I actually think that there's going to be a deal. So if that were the case, then I'm gonna I'm going to go long the market, right? I'm going to be I'm going to buy bets. I'm going to be in the market. If you're on the side of the case that you think there's not going to be a deal and the market's going to back off, then you want to get short the market or at least maybe you want to get short parts of the market, right? You'd want to go long oil. You'd want to go long gold if in fact, you think that there's not going to be a deal. So it depends on who you are is gonna dictate how you set yourself up or how you how you get ready for what this may be. I'm optimistic. I think there's going to be a deal. I think oil's going to go lower. I think gold's going to go lower. And I think stocks will continue to move higher. Related Videos Why Trump might push for a US gov't. stake in Intel Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold Apple shares. Should you? US July Retail Sales Rise Despite Tariff Uncertainty Watch: Trump Departs White House for Putin Summit on Ukraine Errore nel recupero dei dati Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Single Best Idea: Seif & Nordvig
Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with David Seif & Jens Nordvig. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube:
CNBC
01-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Some banks say Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' will be a boon for the U.S. economy
U.S. President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" — or officially, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — is a controversial piece of legislation, but some banks are in favor of it, saying it's the shot in the arm the economy needs. It was advanced in a narrow 51-49 vote in the U.S. Senate late Saturday, moving the large spending measure closer to the president's desk. The bill, which is characterized by sweeping tax reforms and targeted incentives and is forecast to add to the federal deficit, has triggered warnings from credit agencies and drawn criticism. But some banks say they think the bill could boost the U.S. economy. In a letter published Sunday, the American Bankers Association it "strongly supports" many provisions within the bill for the "much needed tax relief" they offer. "I think the OBBB would almost unquestionably be good for the US economy over the next couple of years compared to passing nothing," said David Seif, Nomura's chief economist for developed markets, given that taxes will rise substantially next year following the expiry of many provisions under Trump's 2017 tax bill. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, passed in 2017, includes lower income tax rates, greater child tax credits and generous deductions for businesses. Without Congressional action, many provisions under the act are set to expire by the end of 2025 — a shift analysts said could shrink household consumption and corporate investment. The short-term appeal of the "Big Beautiful Bill"' lies in its ability to avert a sharp fiscal contraction in 2026, they said. "The most important thing OBBB does for the next few years is renew most of those expiring tax provisions, preventing a major and sudden fiscal contraction from occurring," Seif told CNBC. "Provisions of OBBB allowing for faster business expensing of capital investments may raise investment over the next couple of years, though likely at the expense of investment in later years," he added. Citi strategists, likewise, said in a note published last Wednesday the passing of the bill will be an economic tailwind. "In the near term, trade deals (UK, China, eventually Japan, India, Europe, etc) and the passing of the (net stimulatory) Big Beautiful Bill in July should improve growth sentiment," they wrote. Citi also expects that the Federal Reserve will loosen its monetary policy, bolstering growth sentiment, and said "we do not see a bond vigilante moment during 2025/2026 as the BBB delta is largely funded by tariff revenues." Others, however, flagged serious drawbacks. The debt load is a central concern for many critics. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects the BBB will add at least $3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. Although Morgan Stanley noted in early June that the bill's pro-growth tax provisions may benefit businesses and individuals, as well key equity sectors such as communication services, industrials and energy, it said it could raise concerns about fiscal sustainability. Similarly, Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at Tax Foundation's Center for Federal Tax Policy, said, "It is fiscally irresponsible, significantly increasing budget deficits and debt even when accounting for growth." York said many of the tax cuts are complicated and poorly designed, giving tax cuts to certain types of workers and leaving others out. On top of that, because of the bill, which includes many narrowly tailored tax rules, the Internal Revenue Service will need to spend more time and resources updating forms, guidance and enforcement tools, adding to the administrative burden of an already stretched agency, York said.
