20 hours ago
Trump is torpedoing his own Ukraine peace deal
Security guarantees can come in many forms, the direct involvement of ground troops by supporting nations being the most significant, but also hardest to sell at home to voters. Short of that, they could provide airpower and ballistic missile support; training of Ukrainian troops; more equipment and weapons; logistics and communications capabilities; and intelligence sharing.
Zelensky needs to understand the specifics of what is being offered before he can evaluate the pros and cons of any deal. The same holds true for European countries that are increasingly stepping up to boost their military readiness and assume more of the burden for Europe's defence, in response to US demands. In the absence of a meaningful US presence to secure peace, it will fall to them to stand with Ukraine in the face of Russia's expansionist goals.
So, when president Trump uses vague language implying some sort of coordinating role, it is no wonder that allies are left uneasy and non-committal. Some have now seemed to downgrade their own commitments to Ukraine – from tens of thousands of soldiers, to a much smaller force well away from the Russian border. And that's not to mention the not so minor detail that Russia was always unlikely to accept any Western forces stationed in Ukraine. The Kremlin now says it wants an effective veto over any Western guarantees.
But these, as it turns out, are not the details that interest Trump.
This is not to say that no details matter to the president. Some seem to be quite important. Like the placement of a red carpet on the ground in Alaska to welcome the Russian leader. Or the spectacle of a flyover by US military aircraft. Or the staging of an Honour Guard for all the international media to see. Trump the showman knows how to throw a hell of an event, with little regard to the signal it sends to the rest of the world when he greets a murderous dictator like a revered statesman.
We shouldn't be surprised. This is the president who gilded the Oval Office in gold. He must have spent countless hours considering the optics of political rallies, only to ascend to the podium with no script in hand, leading to rambling speeches. His carefully laid out 'liberation day' announcement, threatening tariffs on friends and foes alike, was followed by months of back and forth about if-and-when those tariffs would come into effect, and against whom, and at what level. Most relevant was his brash promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his inauguration, a promise that was self-evidently short on details.
And here is the rub: diplomacy is the stuff of details and specifics. Negotiations require patience and consistency. Just ask the US diplomats who brokered the Dayton Accords and Good Friday Agreement. The hard part happens behind closed doors, not in front of the cameras.
It turns out president Trump doesn't seem to care about those particulars. His impulse for an immediate end to the killing in Ukraine is understandable, but the danger is that he is so hooked on the optics of achieving peace and the diplomatic spectacle of high-stake summits, that he'll force Kyiv to accept any deal, even one that leaves it seriously worse off. If so, his desperation to be seen as a dealmaker will leave the entire democratic world worse off.
