Latest news with #DigantHaria
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
IT in a trading zone; defence out of reach of value investors: Digant Haria
Digant Haria , Co-founder, GreenEdge Wealth , says IT stocks face muted expectations due to AI risks and economic uncertainty, favoring technical trading over fundamental analysis. The defence sector , experiencing strong growth between 2020 and 2024, boasts of high order books and positive sentiment. While existing investors can benefit, new entrants might find better opportunities in related industries like shipbuilding or welding material suppliers . I guess the litmus test is going to be out soon. The earnings season is coming up and we will start off with IT as always. Is another uneventful quarter in store for us? Digant Haria: Yes, I think the IT stocks are not expecting anything big and they have a high base and muted guidance. There is this AI risk and also the US economy which continues to oscillate between hope and fear. It is a setup where even the dollar is not strong. So, IT will just do those technical bounces and technicals are a better way to play it right now than fundamentals because fundamentally there is not much to say that they will do great or badly or whatever. IT remains in a firm trading zone. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Join new Free to Play WWII MMO War Thunder War Thunder Play Now Undo Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Other than that, the defence counters are holding well and we are seeing a lot of news trickling in. One of those stocks is BEL, which is seen to be hitting an all-time high. What is your overall take coming in on defence as a pack right now? Yes, there are concerns with respect to valuations, but how do you see the sector as a whole? Digant Haria: This sector started its great growth journey from 2020 to 2023. The sector is still doing pretty well. It is growing at more than 15%; the good companies are probably growing at 20-25%. Order books are high. Sentiment is great. Defence spending across the world is up. So, whatever good can happen is already there. Old investors should definitely stay put and enjoy the ride for a few more years but for a new investor, it is always a point of discomfort and maybe that has been the case for the last two years. But, the old ones can enjoy the ride, while the new ones have to struggle and hope for a correction or try and find proxies. For example, all the shipyards are trading at really good valuations. It is very difficult to say that you will make a lot of money from these levels, but people like us have no other choice but to find derivatives, like ship building involves a lot of welding activities. So companies which supply those welding materials, are proxies one can play on defence. But defence itself is very richly valued, and rightly so. And yes, it is difficult for a value investor to have a large stake in that sector now. What is your take on what is shaping up when it comes to the paint sector? JSW Paints is acquiring Akzo Nobel and aiming to become the third largest entity within the paint sector. On the other hand, Grasim is saying that Asian Paints is abusing their dominant position, and trying various methods to keep their leading position in the market. CCI has ordered an investigation as well. How do you see the picture of the paint sector shaping up and what could this mean for the companies involved? Digant Haria: Yes, it has been three years of pain for the leaders like Asian Paints and Berger Paints. Right from when Grasim and JSW announced their entries, the sector has been under pain and it is just a coincidence that even the category growth declined in those three years, from 10-11% sector level growth to 2-3% sector growth. So, growth is down and competition has increased. Net-net, see, the sector does not become as attractive as it was in the past decade, but we can say that probably the worst is over because one player, Akzo Nobel has sold out to JSW. Live Events You Might Also Like: Macro's good, if micros pick up by festive season, stock and sector specific party will continue: Digant Haria So there is one player less to contend with. But having said that, Birla Opus and JSW Paints still have to use their capacities and sell their products in the market. It will take some more time for the sector to start normal economics and when I say normal economics, it is 10% kind of a revenue growth and maybe 12-13% kind of earnings growth. Even those modest expectations are some time away. So, while we can say that a lot of these paint stocks would have bottomed out in terms of the price performance, it is not as if they have bottomed out. They will go up 30% tomorrow. For making returns, they have to wait for another 12-18 months. Asian Paints is known to have very aggressive market practices when it comes to distribution and when there is competition, these things happen. It is just what happens in the business side of things and yes, Asian Paints will probably pay some fine and the things will move on, that is what we think. You Might Also Like: As paints industry consolidates, what happens to the margin? Deven Choksey explains Expect mixed results in Q1; capital goods, infrastructure, power & automation poised for growth: Devang Mehta
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Automotive
- Economic Times
Macro's good, if micros pick up by festive season, stock and sector specific party will continue: Digant Haria
Digant Haria, Co-founder, GreenEdge Wealth, says favorable macro factors, including government initiatives, RBI rate cuts, and positive rainfall, are expected to boost demand during the festive season. While weak demand is anticipated for the next couple of quarters, PSU banks are poised to lead the credit cycle and drive demand revival. The government is urging PSU banks to increase lending to achieve higher economic growth. However, macro and micro are not tallying for India. The rally is mostly in response to good macros. If micros follow up, which is expected around the Diwali or festival season, we can have a stock specific, sector specific party continuing. Haria further says that consumer durable companies, including air conditioner and washing machine manufacturers, are expected to perform well. Experts anticipate a resurgence in the car and two-wheeler markets, driven by both rural and urban demand, with bikes appealing to rural areas and scooters to urban centers. Are you surprised that two-wheeler sales have not picked up properly? There is disappointment from Bajaj Auto amongst others. Digant Haria: The pickup in the economy really happens after August or September, so it's not really a surprise. The first quarter (Q1), the monsoon season, is generally slow. So, we are not really surprised. But if this continues till September, October, or the festive season, then that shall be a big negative surprise. The numbers have to pick up in the coming months; otherwise there is some problem. But yes, we are hopeful that it will pick up. Why are you hopeful it will pick up because monsoons are solid, interest rates have come down, yet demand is not making a comeback. Digant Haria: The government gave a budget bonanza, then RBI gave a rate cut bonanza, then mother nature gave the rainfall bonanza. Whatever can help in pushing up the demand, all those factors are very much there and even now, if the demand does not pick up, then we have a slightly deeper problem. We should see some bit of pickup because all the macro factors are very much aligned. Even the metal prices are down. The two-wheeler or the car companies are not facing pressure and they can give discounts. So, a lot of things are in place for things to come back in the festive season. What will come back? Could good old cars or two-wheelers also see the effect of good monsoon, low-rate cuts, and high tax benefits? Digant Haria: It should be a mix of all. All the consumer durable names, the air conditioners, and washing machines should also do well and in addition to that, cars and two-wheelers should make a comeback because this kind of a bonanza should be across both rural and urban. The bikes are more rural, the scooters are more urban. So, it will be across the board, at least that is what we are expecting. The M&M tractor segment, Eicher Motors, RE, and Ashok Leyland have continued to perform and that is a telling point because there is a premium bike, a farm equipment major, and a CV player as well which have done well and have posted above estimated sales. Do you think this is indicative of leadership in all of these segments with Eicher, RE, M&M tractor division, and Ashok Leyland? Digant Haria: Yes, this is a season where the tractors do well. There are different cycles. The commercial vehicle space will probably slow down because we had three great years in the past. For tractors, the last two years were roughly flat or there was hardly any growth or even degrowth to some extent. We have not even crossed the 2023 numbers. This year was expected to be a good year for tractors and good monsoons always play that catalyst for the tractor numbers. So, tractor numbers have come through and now it is time for two-wheelers and auto, the four-wheelers to have a slightly better festive season. And I would even put all these AC companies or the home durable companies in that same pack. AC companies are interesting because they are going through a bad patch because of early rains. There are discounts everywhere, yet you feel that one should look at air conditioning and air cooling stocks? Digant Haria: Yes, air conditioning is a structural theme. It is probably one of the fastest growing categories. The category itself is slated to grow at 14-15%. We will only buy one fridge, one washing machine in our large homes, but we will still buy three-four air conditioners. And then the penetration is hardly 6%. So, it is a genuine structural story. You will not find these stocks cheap. The only time when you find these stocks cheap is when the summer season has not been good and you find Voltas and Blue Star at a good 30% markdown from their all-time highs. When the summer is not very strong, the AC sales pick up around Diwali or post that. So, we are very hopeful that it is a good entry point, obviously not for one quarter, but if somebody has a 12-month horizon, it is a good time to get into these themes. For the rest of the market, what is your view? Is it getting too easy, is this as good as it gets for the rest of the year? Digant Haria: Yes, it is a complicated question. We all keep scratching our heads that we have a brilliant macro setup, like oil is down, US dollar or the DXY is weak. Gold is doing well. Metals or the energy prices in India are down. Interest rates RBI has pushed it down. So, macros are as good as it can be. Micro, if we talk sector by sector, everywhere there are some problems, like even if you look at banking, the large banks, they will report a good amount of pressure on margins. The credit growth in the system is 9%. So, macro and micro do not tally so much. Right now, the rally is mostly in response to the good macros. And if micros do follow up, which we feel they will around the Diwali or the festival season, these markets will hold up and we can have a stock specific, sector specific party continuing. But be careful. There is nothing to say that this party cannot end, but yes, macros are good. We are hopeful that the performance will come through. For this one-two quarters, we still have to live with weak demand. Even in the markets, banking sector, especially the PSU banks are probably going to lead the whole credit cycle and the demand revival for the country because they are the ones who will first go out and lend. The private banks will always hide behind the PSUs and then do their lending. The government had a big meeting with the PSU heads where they were probably told that they need to go out and lend as 8-9% credit growth is not what India should be growing at, we should grow at 12-13% at least.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Automotive
- Time of India
Macro's good, if micros pick up by festive season, stock and sector specific party will continue: Digant Haria
Digant Haria , Co-founder, GreenEdge Wealth , says favorable macro factors, including government initiatives, RBI rate cuts, and positive rainfall, are expected to boost demand during the festive season. While weak demand is anticipated for the next couple of quarters, PSU banks are poised to lead the credit cycle and drive demand revival. The government is urging PSU banks to increase lending to achieve higher economic growth. However, macro and micro are not tallying for India. The rally is mostly in response to good macros. If micros follow up, which is expected around the Diwali or festival season, we can have a stock specific, sector specific party continuing. Haria further says that consumer durable companies , including air conditioner and washing machine manufacturers, are expected to perform well. Experts anticipate a resurgence in the car and two-wheeler markets, driven by both rural and urban demand, with bikes appealing to rural areas and scooters to urban centers. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 곧 마감, 임플란트 개당 30만원 이벤트 진행 중 치아케어센터 지금 신청하기 Undo Are you surprised that two-wheeler sales have not picked up properly? There is disappointment from Bajaj Auto amongst others. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Digant Haria: The pickup in the economy really happens after August or September, so it's not really a surprise. The first quarter (Q1), the monsoon season, is generally slow. So, we are not really surprised. But if this continues till September, October, or the festive season, then that shall be a big negative surprise. The numbers have to pick up in the coming months; otherwise there is some problem. But yes, we are hopeful that it will pick up. Why are you hopeful it will pick up because monsoons are solid, interest rates have come down, yet demand is not making a comeback. Digant Haria: The government gave a budget bonanza, then RBI gave a rate cut bonanza, then mother nature gave the rainfall bonanza. Whatever can help in pushing up the demand, all those factors are very much there and even now, if the demand does not pick up, then we have a slightly deeper problem. We should see some bit of pickup because all the macro factors are very much aligned. Even the metal prices are down. The two-wheeler or the car companies are not facing pressure and they can give discounts. So, a lot of things are in place for things to come back in the festive season. What will come back? Could good old cars or two-wheelers also see the effect of good monsoon, low-rate cuts, and high tax benefits? Digant Haria: It should be a mix of all. All the consumer durable names, the air conditioners, and washing machines should also do well and in addition to that, cars and two-wheelers should make a comeback because this kind of a bonanza should be across both rural and urban. The bikes are more rural, the scooters are more urban. So, it will be across the board, at least that is what we are expecting. Live Events You Might Also Like: Mega trend emerging in silver, time to sell gold and top up in silver? Gautam Shah answers The M&M tractor segment, Eicher Motors, RE, and Ashok Leyland have continued to perform and that is a telling point because there is a premium bike, a farm equipment major, and a CV player as well which have done well and have posted above estimated sales. Do you think this is indicative of leadership in all of these segments with Eicher, RE, M&M tractor division, and Ashok Leyland? Digant Haria: Yes, this is a season where the tractors do well. There are different cycles. The commercial vehicle space will probably slow down because we had three great years in the past. For tractors, the last two years were roughly flat or there was hardly any growth or even degrowth to some extent. We have not even crossed the 2023 numbers. This year was expected to be a good year for tractors and good monsoons always play that catalyst for the tractor numbers. So, tractor numbers have come through and now it is time for two-wheelers and auto, the four-wheelers to have a slightly better festive season. And I would even put all these AC companies or the home durable companies in that same pack. AC companies are interesting because they are going through a bad patch because of early rains. There are discounts everywhere, yet you feel that one should look at air conditioning and air cooling stocks? Digant Haria: Yes, air conditioning is a structural theme. It is probably one of the fastest growing categories. The category itself is slated to grow at 14-15%. We will only buy one fridge, one washing machine in our large homes, but we will still buy three-four air conditioners. And then the penetration is hardly 6%. So, it is a genuine structural story. You will not find these stocks cheap. The only time when you find these stocks cheap is when the summer season has not been good and you find Voltas and Blue Star at a good 30% markdown from their all-time highs. When the summer is not very strong, the AC sales pick up around Diwali or post that. So, we are very hopeful that it is a good entry point, obviously not for one quarter, but if somebody has a 12-month horizon, it is a good time to get into these themes. You Might Also Like: Expect mixed results in Q1; capital goods, infrastructure, power & automation poised for growth: Devang Mehta For the rest of the market, what is your view? Is it getting too easy, is this as good as it gets for the rest of the year? Digant Haria: Yes, it is a complicated question. We all keep scratching our heads that we have a brilliant macro setup, like oil is down, US dollar or the DXY is weak. Gold is doing well. Metals or the energy prices in India are down. Interest rates RBI has pushed it down. So, macros are as good as it can be. Micro, if we talk sector by sector, everywhere there are some problems, like even if you look at banking, the large banks, they will report a good amount of pressure on margins. The credit growth in the system is 9%. So, macro and micro do not tally so much. Right now, the rally is mostly in response to the good macros. And if micros do follow up, which we feel they will around the Diwali or the festival season, these markets will hold up and we can have a stock specific, sector specific party continuing. But be careful. There is nothing to say that this party cannot end, but yes, macros are good. We are hopeful that the performance will come through. For this one-two quarters, we still have to live with weak demand. Even in the markets, banking sector, especially the PSU banks are probably going to lead the whole credit cycle and the demand revival for the country because they are the ones who will first go out and lend. The private banks will always hide behind the PSUs and then do their lending. The government had a big meeting with the PSU heads where they were probably told that they need to go out and lend as 8-9% credit growth is not what India should be growing at, we should grow at 12-13% at least.
Economic Times
21-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Digant Haria sees continued volatility amid debt concerns in US and Japan
"The setup overall is decent, something where we do not make lifetime highs, but we do not fall either and that sector rotation should happen," says Digant Haria, GreenEdge Wealth. ADVERTISEMENT Give us a sense of what you are expecting the market to be like today, which sectors are expected to tip once again back into the green given that we have ended in the red across all sectors yesterday. Sharp cuts coming in across realty, FMCG, IT, auto, some heavy weights and defensives that were under pressure. Do you see them edging towards the green today given that they have consolidated significantly yesterday? Digant Haria: I do not think I have a day-to-day view on all of these things. See, Japan and US are two economies which are laden with debt and they will keep on pestering the world markets time and again till at least September. So, you will get these bouts of volatility, but the overall setup for India is pretty clear that India and maybe a lot of other emerging markets that crude oil is down, commodities are down, US dollar is no more strong, the DXY is weakening. So, this is a setup where we should do well. The numbers have not been too bad. So, we will again see a market where there will be rotation like the financials could make a comeback. The financial sector in India could make a comeback, the industrial and the PSU sector which has been down and out for the last six months that could make some comeback. So, the setup overall is decent, something where we do not make lifetime highs, but we do not fall either and that sector rotation should happen. The point you just highlighted, I wanted to get a more sense on this one because for Japan long-term bond auctions that has actually got the weakest demand since 2012. Do you believe that the next signal for the markets will come from the bond markets and how crucial it is to watch for the bond movement, especially for the Japanese bond auctions and the prices that we go ahead because for now Japan has been one of those spots which actually offered the lowest interest or rather the kind of the lowest, the safest of the heavens for investors. So, do you believe that it could have some implications on the FII number for emerging market as well? Digant Haria: See, US and Japan these are the two economies which have a lot of debt which comes for refinancing and see the world has had enough of these two economies binging on debt. Trump is already trying to do its bit by de-addicting the American economy from debt. But they still have to do all the refinancing. So, similarly, for Japan and then if you look at US the rates have increased from say 1% to almost 5% in the last two years. Japan was probably around zero percent, now we are getting close to three. So, Japan is also adjusting to those realities of a debt laden economy. ADVERTISEMENT We will see some more shocks from US bond markets as well as from Japan over the next six months, but world is ready to move on because we have already seen one or two shocks in the last six months. Countries like China, a lot of them are banking on gold, so we saw a very good rally in gold. So, this is a move away from that old world order of US dollar and Japanese yen dominating everything, but see, they have been the very strong currencies and the bellwether of world market. So, whenever there is something wrong which happens there, we will correct for a day or two, but I do not see that we go back to those March lows or anything because we are doing well, a lot of other emerging markets are doing well and they are probably like just saying hey, you guys manage your problems, yes, these are not our problems, so at least that is what we think. ADVERTISEMENT Pretty much at the fag end of the earning season. What has been your analysis and read through from earnings so far and where is it that you have your sector overweights and underweights? Digant Haria: So, see, the earnings were quite robust versus the expectations because if you remember like from October to March we had a continuous round of correction and the talk then was that capex is slowing down, consumer there is absolutely no revival. ADVERTISEMENT So, the earnings expectation were quite muted and versus that earnings expectation we have done quite well especially when it comes to sectors like industrials and PSU and capex and even some pockets of the consumer sector, not the large FMCG ones but something like a Whirlpool, a lot of them give decent set of numbers, the cement stocks. So, there is not much to complain on the numbers. Again, it is very standard response that we have to be stock specific and choose our battles because it is not going to be an all-out bull market, but it will be a reasonably stock specific, sector specific bull market. And something like financials, the results were absolutely lacklustre, but that was expected, Q4 was going to be a reasonably bad quarter for all the large banks, the mid-sized banks, even a lot of these microfinance and high lending NBFCs, something like a Bajaj Finance, everything was lacklustre, but that was expected. June should be one more quarter of lacklustre performance, but after that you will see three, four, five quarters of really improving performance from the financials. So, maybe the results were not good, but probably this is the quarter where you start building positions in beaten down financials or beaten down consumer names because that is where it looks like we will have the next bull market coming. ADVERTISEMENT So, our read through is that in industrials and capex space if your stocks are delivering good numbers, you continue there, but otherwise you can start building positions in the beaten down financials and beaten down consumer names because those early signs are there that results will improve in the coming three-four quarters. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
21-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Digant Haria sees continued volatility amid debt concerns in US and Japan
"The setup overall is decent, something where we do not make lifetime highs, but we do not fall either and that sector rotation should happen," says Digant Haria , GreenEdge Wealth . Give us a sense of what you are expecting the market to be like today, which sectors are expected to tip once again back into the green given that we have ended in the red across all sectors yesterday. Sharp cuts coming in across realty, FMCG, IT, auto, some heavy weights and defensives that were under pressure. Do you see them edging towards the green today given that they have consolidated significantly yesterday? Digant Haria: I do not think I have a day-to-day view on all of these things. See, Japan and US are two economies which are laden with debt and they will keep on pestering the world markets time and again till at least September. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Senior Living Homes in Kuningan Barat May Surprise You Senior Living | Search Ads Undo So, you will get these bouts of volatility, but the overall setup for India is pretty clear that India and maybe a lot of other emerging markets that crude oil is down, commodities are down, US dollar is no more strong, the DXY is weakening. So, this is a setup where we should do well. The numbers have not been too bad. So, we will again see a market where there will be rotation like the financials could make a comeback. The financial sector in India could make a comeback, the industrial and the PSU sector which has been down and out for the last six months that could make some comeback. So, the setup overall is decent, something where we do not make lifetime highs, but we do not fall either and that sector rotation should happen. The point you just highlighted, I wanted to get a more sense on this one because for Japan long-term bond auctions that has actually got the weakest demand since 2012. Do you believe that the next signal for the markets will come from the bond markets and how crucial it is to watch for the bond movement, especially for the Japanese bond auctions and the prices that we go ahead because for now Japan has been one of those spots which actually offered the lowest interest or rather the kind of the lowest, the safest of the heavens for investors. So, do you believe that it could have some implications on the FII number for emerging market as well? Digant Haria: See, US and Japan these are the two economies which have a lot of debt which comes for refinancing and see the world has had enough of these two economies binging on debt. Live Events Trump is already trying to do its bit by de-addicting the American economy from debt. But they still have to do all the refinancing. So, similarly, for Japan and then if you look at US the rates have increased from say 1% to almost 5% in the last two years. Japan was probably around zero percent, now we are getting close to three. So, Japan is also adjusting to those realities of a debt laden economy. We will see some more shocks from US bond markets as well as from Japan over the next six months, but world is ready to move on because we have already seen one or two shocks in the last six months. Countries like China, a lot of them are banking on gold, so we saw a very good rally in gold. So, this is a move away from that old world order of US dollar and Japanese yen dominating everything, but see, they have been the very strong currencies and the bellwether of world market. So, whenever there is something wrong which happens there, we will correct for a day or two, but I do not see that we go back to those March lows or anything because we are doing well, a lot of other emerging markets are doing well and they are probably like just saying hey, you guys manage your problems, yes, these are not our problems, so at least that is what we think. Pretty much at the fag end of the earning season. What has been your analysis and read through from earnings so far and where is it that you have your sector overweights and underweights? Digant Haria: So, see, the earnings were quite robust versus the expectations because if you remember like from October to March we had a continuous round of correction and the talk then was that capex is slowing down, consumer there is absolutely no revival. So, the earnings expectation were quite muted and versus that earnings expectation we have done quite well especially when it comes to sectors like industrials and PSU and capex and even some pockets of the consumer sector, not the large FMCG ones but something like a Whirlpool, a lot of them give decent set of numbers, the cement stocks. So, there is not much to complain on the numbers. Again, it is very standard response that we have to be stock specific and choose our battles because it is not going to be an all-out bull market, but it will be a reasonably stock specific, sector specific bull market. And something like financials, the results were absolutely lacklustre, but that was expected, Q4 was going to be a reasonably bad quarter for all the large banks, the mid-sized banks, even a lot of these microfinance and high lending NBFCs, something like a Bajaj Finance, everything was lacklustre, but that was expected. June should be one more quarter of lacklustre performance, but after that you will see three, four, five quarters of really improving performance from the financials. So, maybe the results were not good, but probably this is the quarter where you start building positions in beaten down financials or beaten down consumer names because that is where it looks like we will have the next bull market coming. So, our read through is that in industrials and capex space if your stocks are delivering good numbers, you continue there, but otherwise you can start building positions in the beaten down financials and beaten down consumer names because those early signs are there that results will improve in the coming three-four quarters.
