Macro's good, if micros pick up by festive season, stock and sector specific party will continue: Digant Haria
Haria further says that consumer durable companies, including air conditioner and washing machine manufacturers, are expected to perform well. Experts anticipate a resurgence in the car and two-wheeler markets, driven by both rural and urban demand, with bikes appealing to rural areas and scooters to urban centers.
Are you surprised that two-wheeler sales have not picked up properly? There is disappointment from Bajaj Auto amongst others.
Digant Haria: The pickup in the economy really happens after August or September, so it's not really a surprise. The first quarter (Q1), the monsoon season, is generally slow. So, we are not really surprised. But if this continues till September, October, or the festive season, then that shall be a big negative surprise. The numbers have to pick up in the coming months; otherwise there is some problem. But yes, we are hopeful that it will pick up.
Why are you hopeful it will pick up because monsoons are solid, interest rates have come down, yet demand is not making a comeback.
Digant Haria: The government gave a budget bonanza, then RBI gave a rate cut bonanza, then mother nature gave the rainfall bonanza. Whatever can help in pushing up the demand, all those factors are very much there and even now, if the demand does not pick up, then we have a slightly deeper problem. We should see some bit of pickup because all the macro factors are very much aligned. Even the metal prices are down. The two-wheeler or the car companies are not facing pressure and they can give discounts. So, a lot of things are in place for things to come back in the festive season. What will come back? Could good old cars or two-wheelers also see the effect of good monsoon, low-rate cuts, and high tax benefits?
Digant Haria: It should be a mix of all. All the consumer durable names, the air conditioners, and washing machines should also do well and in addition to that, cars and two-wheelers should make a comeback because this kind of a bonanza should be across both rural and urban. The bikes are more rural, the scooters are more urban. So, it will be across the board, at least that is what we are expecting. The M&M tractor segment, Eicher Motors, RE, and Ashok Leyland have continued to perform and that is a telling point because there is a premium bike, a farm equipment major, and a CV player as well which have done well and have posted above estimated sales. Do you think this is indicative of leadership in all of these segments with Eicher, RE, M&M tractor division, and Ashok Leyland?
Digant Haria: Yes, this is a season where the tractors do well. There are different cycles. The commercial vehicle space will probably slow down because we had three great years in the past. For tractors, the last two years were roughly flat or there was hardly any growth or even degrowth to some extent. We have not even crossed the 2023 numbers. This year was expected to be a good year for tractors and good monsoons always play that catalyst for the tractor numbers.
So, tractor numbers have come through and now it is time for two-wheelers and auto, the four-wheelers to have a slightly better festive season. And I would even put all these AC companies or the home durable companies in that same pack.
AC companies are interesting because they are going through a bad patch because of early rains. There are discounts everywhere, yet you feel that one should look at air conditioning and air cooling stocks?
Digant Haria: Yes, air conditioning is a structural theme. It is probably one of the fastest growing categories. The category itself is slated to grow at 14-15%. We will only buy one fridge, one washing machine in our large homes, but we will still buy three-four air conditioners. And then the penetration is hardly 6%. So, it is a genuine structural story.
You will not find these stocks cheap. The only time when you find these stocks cheap is when the summer season has not been good and you find Voltas and Blue Star at a good 30% markdown from their all-time highs. When the summer is not very strong, the AC sales pick up around Diwali or post that. So, we are very hopeful that it is a good entry point, obviously not for one quarter, but if somebody has a 12-month horizon, it is a good time to get into these themes. For the rest of the market, what is your view? Is it getting too easy, is this as good as it gets for the rest of the year?
Digant Haria: Yes, it is a complicated question. We all keep scratching our heads that we have a brilliant macro setup, like oil is down, US dollar or the DXY is weak. Gold is doing well. Metals or the energy prices in India are down. Interest rates RBI has pushed it down. So, macros are as good as it can be. Micro, if we talk sector by sector, everywhere there are some problems, like even if you look at banking, the large banks, they will report a good amount of pressure on margins.
The credit growth in the system is 9%. So, macro and micro do not tally so much. Right now, the rally is mostly in response to the good macros. And if micros do follow up, which we feel they will around the Diwali or the festival season, these markets will hold up and we can have a stock specific, sector specific party continuing. But be careful. There is nothing to say that this party cannot end, but yes, macros are good. We are hopeful that the performance will come through. For this one-two quarters, we still have to live with weak demand. Even in the markets, banking sector, especially the PSU banks are probably going to lead the whole credit cycle and the demand revival for the country because they are the ones who will first go out and lend. The private banks will always hide behind the PSUs and then do their lending. The government had a big meeting with the PSU heads where they were probably told that they need to go out and lend as 8-9% credit growth is not what India should be growing at, we should grow at 12-13% at least.
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