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National Observer
09-05-2025
- Business
- National Observer
Unemployment rate rises to 6.9% in April as trade war hits factory jobs
The national unemployment rate ticked up to 6.9 per cent in April as the manufacturing sector started to strain under the weight of tariffs from the United States, Statistics Canada said Friday. The Canadian economy added 7,400 jobs last month, the agency said, slightly outpacing economist expectations for a gain of 2,500 positions. But the unemployment rate also rose two tenths of a percentage point in April, topping economists' call for a jobless rate of 6.8 per cent. At 6.9 per cent, the unemployment rate is back at its recent high seen in November. Before then, the jobless rate had not hit that level since January 2017, outside the pandemic years. While the economy did add jobs in April, the rising unemployment rate suggests employers were not hiring as quickly as Canada's population was growing. Statistics Canada noted that's a reversal of earlier this year, when strong employment gains coincided with slowing population growth. Canada's manufacturing industry led job losses in April, shedding 31,000 positions, with the bulk of the impact in Ontario. Canada's manufacturing industry contracted in April as the sector grappled with tariffs from the United States. The hit came after the United States imposed tariffs starting in March on non-CUSMA compliant imports from Canada as well as sector-specific levies on steel and aluminum and automobiles. Manufacturing-heavy Windsor, Ont., saw its unemployment rate jump 1.4 percentage points to 10.7 per cent last month. Statistics Canada said the April figures showed the first significant decline in manufacturing jobs since November, though employment levels for the industry remain steady year-over-year. The wholesale and retail trade sector also lost some 27,000 jobs in April. Offsetting the declines last month was a gain of 37,000 jobs in the public administration sector, which Statistics Canada said was largely temporary work tied to the federal election in April. Average hourly wages rose 3.4 per cent in April, down slightly from 3.6 per cent in March. BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients Friday that the details of the April jobs report are worthy of a failing grade for the labour market, with the trade war serving as a clear source of weakness. "This is the first major data reading for April, and it shows that tariffs are already taking a material bite out of the economy," he said. The April job figures mark the last reading the Bank of Canada will get on the health of the labour market before its next interest rate decision set for June 4. The central bank held its benchmark rate steady at 2.75 per cent at its decision last month, breaking a streak of seven consecutive cuts as it waited for more clarity on how Canada's trade dispute with the United States would unfold. Ali Jaffery, senior economist at CIBC, said in a note that the latest jobs report supports the case for a return to cuts in June. "Overall, we are seeing a job market that was weak heading into the trade war, now looking like it could soon buckle," Jaffery said. Porter echoed that call, arguing the odds are now higher for a quarter-point cut for June. Despite economic uncertainty tied to the U.S. trade dispute, most workers were telling Statistics Canada they felt secure in their jobs. Some 73.9 per cent of workers aged 15-69 disagreed when asked if they thought they'd lose their job in the next six months, though the proportion of those who felt otherwise was highest in industries reliant on exports to the United States.
Axios
11-02-2025
- Business
- Axios
Canada has a lot to lose
The North American trade drama is unfolding against a backdrop of diverging economic performance that gives President Trump leverage in the trade war. Why it matters: The two nations are tightly linked by the trade patterns that the White House threatens to blow up. Canada is already on weak footing. Heightened conflict that would disentangle its economy from the U.S. would be a crushing blow. What they're saying: "It's odd to have such a large difference in the two economies as we've seen in the last two years," Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO, tells Axios. The U.S. economy has grown at an annual rate of 2.8% over the last couple of years, versus 1.2% for Canada's economy. The unemployment rate in the U.S. is a low 4%; in Canada, it is 6.6%. Between the lines: It looks like the U.S. economy nailed a soft landing after the inflation shock, but Canada's landing was bumpier. Like much of the rest of the world, Canada's central bank aggressively raised interest rates to squeeze out inflation. But Canadians felt the squeeze, and many homeowner mortgages reset in as little as three years. Other factors are at play: There was no productivity surge in Canada, business investment is stagnant, and the country is not benefiting from the animal spirits behind the AI boom. The intrigue: Canadian monetary policy typically moves in lockstep with that of the U.S. But this time, it cut interest rates sooner, and at a much quicker pace relative to the U.S., to protect its economy. Since June, the Bank of Canada has cut rates by 2 percentage points — a full point above the Fed's cumulative cuts that are now on hold. "Throughout most of the past 20 years, Canada-U.S. interest rates have been fairly similar," Porter says. "It's really unusual to have such a large gap in rates, but these are unusual times." What we're watching: Trump said he would put 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, an announcement that could come as soon as Monday. It's unclear whether Canada — the overwhelming source of U.S. steel imports — will be subject to these tariffs, even as others remain on hold. If the tariffs go ahead, few nations will be impacted like Canada, which risks losing its biggest buyer if the U.S. ramps up domestic production. That is, at least, what the stock market is betting: Shares of steel producers are soaring. Flashback: The tariffs have shades of 2018, when Trump imposed similar levies on steel and aluminum. Like the U.S., Canada was in the midst of a lengthy economic expansion. Exports of its aluminum fell almost 20% and steel exports dropped by 40%, according to a TD Bank report released this month. Canada's economy continued to grow, though at a slower rate, and unemployment and inflation stayed low.
