'Absolutely crazy': Alberta could topple Ontario in new housing construction

Ottawa Citizen

2 days ago

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For the first time in more than 40 years, Alberta is on track to potentially build more homes than Ontario this year — despite having a much smaller population.
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In a recent note titled 'Go West, Young Homebuilders,' Bank of Montreal economists said Alberta is having a banner year in new housing construction.
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Based on data for the first six months of the year, the province is on pace to build 58,900 homes by the end of 2025. If it hit that mark, it would shatter the previous record and put the province within striking distance of Ontario, which has more than triple the population, according to Doug Porter, BMO's chief economist.
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Canada's largest province, meanwhile, is on track to build 60,200 homes this year — barely above the projection for Alberta, leaving the western province some leeway to potentially overtake Ontario. Alberta hasn't led the country in residential construction since at least the 1980s, during another housing boom, Porter said.
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Alberta's current building phenomenon is surprising, he said, and probably a sign of its economic strength during a period of trade uncertainty.
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'I actually do think the bigger story is the blast-off in Alberta,' Porter said.
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Canadian provinces have been hit differently by flip-flopping tariff pressures from the United States, Porter said. With its robust auto and steel industries, Ontario has likely been hit the hardest by the tariffs, he said. Alberta, on the other hand, managed to skirt some of the worst impacts, buoyed by population growth, a rapidly expanding housing market, and the energy sector.
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'Whatever wild success that existed in Alberta in terms of new permits and new starts on the ground, the Ontario story is the exact opposite,' said Adil Kodian, executive vice-president of Rohit Group, which develops homes across the country.
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'Supply coming on is absolutely crazy at the moment,' said Kodian, adding that the blistering pace of new construction — along with a sharp slowdown in immigration — is creating new worries.
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'Now our biggest concern is oversupply.'
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Porter said that Alberta isn't the only province that should be looking at immigration.
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'I think every housing market has to have a pretty keen eye trained on what's going on in immigration and population growth,' he said.
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'The interesting thing is, Alberta's still got pretty robust population growth,' said Porter, noting many of the new people are coming from other provinces, notably Ontario and British Columbia.