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Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Kumbh Mela's ₹2.8 lakh crore question: Did faith drive India's Q4 GDP growth? CEA weighs in
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran has cautiously acknowledged the potential economic contribution of the Maha Kumbh Mela to the country's fourth quarter consumption in FY25, even as he underlined the difficulty in assigning a precise number. 'It can be said that the Maha Kumbh had a contribution (to consumption in Q4FY25), but to give a precise estimate of the contribution is difficult at this stage,' he comment comes amid reports estimating that the 2025 edition of the Maha Kumbh Mela facilitated an eye-watering Rs 2.8 lakh crore in economic activity, turning the world's largest religious gathering into an economic report, released by Dun & Bradstreet in April and cited by PTI, paints a staggering picture of consumption. The total estimated economic output includes Rs 90,000 crore in direct spending, Rs 80,000 crore in indirect economic activity, and a further Rs 1.1 lakh crore in induced impacts, driven largely by increased local consumption and economic circulation among vendors, workers, and service terms of consumption alone, Rs 2.3 lakh crore of the total was attributed to everyday expenditures — transportation, food, accommodation, and tourism. The remaining Rs 50,000 crore was identified as capital expenditure, with significant outlays on infrastructure to accommodate the surge in emerged as the star contributor, raking in Rs 37,000 crore, with the Indian Railways alone earning Rs 17,700 crore during the festival period. Recreation and spiritual tourism also saw significant gains, with pilgrims spending Rs 10,000 crore on everything from helicopter rides and hot air balloons to yoga sessions and guided impact on small businesses was profound: 2 lakh vendors engaged in retail reportedly generated Rs 7,000 crore, while food services added another Rs 6,500 crore. The humble tea and puri stalls thrived, with some tea sellers earning up to Rs 30,000 a day, and puri vendors clocking Rs 1,500 daily in average these eye-popping figures, the CEA maintained a cautious stance, citing challenges in definitively attributing macroeconomic growth figures to individual events like the Kumbh. 'Given that India is a domestic demand-driven economy, private sector investment will continue — but it's difficult to precisely anticipate how much they will grow amid the tough global environment,' Nageswaran added.
Malaysian Reserve
3 days ago
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
Tariff truce keeps China-US trade flowing across the Pacific
THE ceasefire in the tariff fight between the world's two largest economies is encouraging trade across the Pacific, holding up freight prices three weeks on, even as container bookings have begun to slow. Thanks to the reprieve, which began earlier this month, the price of shipping a forty-foot equivalent unit from Shanghai to Los Angeles notched its biggest relative weekly gain this year, rising by nearly 17% to $3,738. The price per container in the week through May 29 was still almost a third below this year's peak in January, but above a late-March nadir of $2,487, just before President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcement. Bookings for containers have eased though. In the first three days of this week, bookings totaled about 106,000 twenty-foot equivalent units, data from Vizion and Dun & Bradstreet show. That's a drop from 137,000 TEUs in the same period the previous week, as the initial enthusiasm that followed the announcement of the truce began to ease. Globally, the week beginning May 19 marked the highest volume of bookings so far this year. Data tracking shipping over the last two weeks, which tends to move at a lag to bookings, showed a similar softening. There were about 34 vessels departing Chinese ports for the US over the past 15 days, according to a Bloomberg analysis of transponder data. That's down from an average of 48 the previous week. The ships were also carrying one-third fewer containers. The delay between booking and sailing means that current departures from China to the US are frequently a reflection of the reality at the start of the month — in this case, when the US and China were still at loggerheads — prompting container liners to cancel or blank some services, meaning vessels sail empty. 'It's a fluid situation. What we're seeing is a constant rebalancing of the supply chain and between indicators like freight rates, bookings and sailings,' said Jayendu Krishna, a director at Drewry Maritime Services. Other factors contributing to the drop include Chinese companies' supply chains, which can allow them to ship products from other countries around the region, according to Bloomberg Intelligence shipping and logistics analyst Kenneth Loh. Capacity, however, is beginning to recover. Major container liners have already promised to add more, while smaller forwarders are also returning to the route after years of absence as demand improves. Chinese operator China United Lines will start shipping across the Pacific to connect Chinese ports with Long Beach, while South Korea's KMTC Line will resume a trans-Pacific service after pulling out from it for decades. Chinese trade overall is still at high levels, with the total number of containers processed at the country's ports up 6% last week from the same period a year earlier, the 16th straight week of improvement. And air cargo flights have also continued to rise, despite the US ending the de minimis tariff exemption for small packages. Earlier this month, Trump reduced duties on items valued up to $800 to 54% from 120%. –BLOOMBERG
Mint
25-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
The 90-day rush to get goods out of China
Adam Leeb is rushing to ship $700,000 of electronic typewriters from China while the trade truce holds. After forking out $23,000 for tariffs in March when President Trump hit Chinese goods with a new 20% levy, Leeb, a Detroit-based business owner, decided to pause shipments altogether when the administration then pushed tariffs to an eye-watering 145%. Now that a 90-day truce agreed between Washington and Beijing this month has brought that down to 30%, Leeb's company, Astrohaus, which makes typewriters, keyboards and other tools for writers, is taking the opportunity to restock. 'I'm assuming this is probably the best-case scenario for a while,' Leeb said. Sky-high tariffs pummeled U.S.-China trade and now the cease-fire is causing a snapback. Firms across the U.S. are racing to rebook canceled orders and find space on containerships to get products out of China and bring them stateside before the 90-day window closes in August. In the week beginning May 12, when the trade truce was announced, bookings for containers to the U.S. from China more than doubled compared with the week before as the tariff rollback unleashed a wave of pent-up demand. Bookings surged to the equivalent of around 2.2 million 20-foot boxes, a level not seen in more than a year, according to data from Vizion, a container-tracking software company, and data provider Dun & Bradstreet. Executives, logistics specialists and analysts are cautious about how big the rebound will get. They say there is still too much uncertainty over tariff policy and the health of the U.S.'s consumer-driven economy to fuel a splurge in new orders. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said earlier this month that he doesn't anticipate a big surge in imports after the rollback. Vizion's data show container bookings last week fell back to the equivalent of around 1.4 million 20-foot containers. Nonetheless, many Chinese manufacturers are welcoming any bump in activity after the high tariffs froze orders and halted production. Lisa Wang, a salesperson at a textile manufacturer in China's Zhejiang province, said the 90-day tariff pause has been a huge help to her company. The company has been able to ship out about a dozen containers of previously delayed orders, mostly mattress protectors and pillows. Clients are also placing some new orders. 'Because we don't know what the policy will be like after 90 days, we are rushing to ship what we can now,' she said. Shipping executives in Asia say one headache for importers is there aren't enough ships available to move goods to the U.S. right away. Carriers diverted some of the vessels that would usually ship goods to the U.S. West Coast from China to other busy routes when tariffs slammed U.S.-China trade. Some carriers replaced their biggest containerships with smaller vessels, while others canceled some scheduled sailings altogether, shipping executives say. Now, freight rates are picking up as importers compete for scarce space as carriers rush to bring ships back. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's index of container prices to ship goods from Shanghai jumped 10% in the week beginning May 12, compared with the week before. 'The next 90 days will be quite chaotic,' said a senior logistics executive in Asia, who said it would take weeks to return rerouted vessels. But for many industries, 90 days just isn't long enough to get products ordered, manufactured and shipped across the Pacific. Vincent Ambrose, chief commercial officer of FranklinWH Energy Storage, which makes home energy-storage systems in California and Shenzhen, China, said the 90-day reprieve on tariffs isn't long enough to rush in extra stock, as manufacturing and delivery typically takes about 12 weeks. Even if he could, he said he can't compete with the likes of Amazon, Apple and Walmart for scarce space on U.S.-bound containerships. 'There's really no opportunity to rush a bunch of products here,' he said. Industry executives also say that a 30% tariff is still high enough to pinch trade, albeit not as severely as a 145% levy. Some products from China are subject to tariffs higher than the baseline 30% because of prior duties, making other countries more attractive for manufacturing still. 'Yes, there is a reprieve. Does that suddenly result in masses of volume? I honestly doubt it,' said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, an international shipping association. Godfrey Chan, who started his business as a paper-goods manufacturer in China more than 30 years ago before opening a factory in northern Vietnam in 2023, said the trade truce hasn't sparked a rush back to China. Tariffs on the products he makes—which include paper bags with flowers, hearts and colorful designs for Christmas and birthdays—would total 55% if they were produced in China, compared with 10% currently on Vietnamese goods. His Vietnamese factory, Max Fortune VN Paper Products, has been slammed with orders from customers hoping to get products as soon as possible, while tariffs on Vietnamese goods are much lower than those on Chinese imports. 'You can easily see the difference,' Chan said. Earlier this year, the Trump administration placed tariffs of 46% on Vietnamese imports, but suspended them for 90 days, pending trade talks. Leeb, the typewriter maker, is keeping another order with his Chinese manufacturers on hold that was previously scheduled for production in August. He is worried about buying too much inventory and running short on cash if tariffs return to higher levels after the pause ends. He tried to negotiate lower prices with his Chinese manufacturers to reduce the burden of tariffs, but didn't manage to get price cuts because the factories are operating on low profit margins. Astrohaus has already raised prices up to 10% on certain products to deal with the tariff increase and is giving priority to presale orders. Leeb recently toured factories in Vietnam and Indonesia to explore moving some production outside of China for the first time. 'I have to take it seriously now,' he said. Write to Hannah Miao at and Jason Douglas at
Business Times
21-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
China-US trade soars as exporters race to hit trade truce window
[HONG KONG] A temporary trade truce between the world's two largest economies has sparked a knee-jerk bounce across China's ports and factory floors. In the week beginning May 12, when the US and China agreed to sharply reduce tariffs for 90 days, bookings on freighters headed from China to US shores more than doubled from the prior week to about 228,000 TEUs, or twenty-foot equivalent units, data from container-tracking platform Vizion and data provider Dun & Bradstreet shows. Prices for space on ships across the Pacific into the US also rose, with spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles jumping about 16 per cent – the biggest increase for the route this year – to US$3,136 per forty-foot equivalent unit for the week ending May 15, according to the Drewry World Container Index. The global composite index also rose the most this year. And the demand was not just by sea: The number of international air cargo flights rose almost 18 per cent, according to data released by China's Ministry of Transport. The surge is likely a wave of front-loading as the trade truce opens a window to avoid steep US tariffs, said Jayendu Krishna, a director at Drewry Maritime Services. It's also an important buying season for the holidays – it takes about a month for items to arrive stateside and retailers are rapidly running through inventory they have had on hand awaiting some trade certainty. 'The current surge in bookings is likely to lead to supply chain disruptions for the next two to three months, unless there is another tariff shock from Trump,' Krishna said. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Bookings on ships are due to be filled by factories like supply-chain manager Chen Lei's, which makes various types of home appliance products from coffee machines and toasters to irons and humidifiers. The Guangdong-based manufacturer where Chen works counts Royal Philips and Walmart among clients, and has received a flurry of requests from the US to resume production on orders that were put on hold in April. 'Machines in the factories are working non-stop now,' said Chen. '90 days is too short. Production, shipping – we can't wait a single minute.' AP Moller-Maersk, a major container liner that's also one of the largest on the trans-Pacific route, added capacity again after seeing an increase in bookings when the truce was announced, a spokesperson said. Even with the boost in activity from earlier weeks, the overall level of shipments remains in-line with this time last year. That shows many retailers are either not ordering to the same extent, waiting for more certainty, or maybe have already stocked up earlier this year. Liners were also bringing unused capacity already on these routes back online, with the share of voided sailings down to 13 per cent as at May 26, compared to 25 per cent a week before, data from HSBC and Flexport show. A flurry of trade figures from across Asia this week show the chaos that Trump's policies have wrought this year. In South Korea, the value of exports fell 2.4 per cent in the first 20 days of May from the prior year, with outbound shipments to the US down about 15 per cent. Japanese exports rose only 2 per cent in April – the weakest growth in seven months, data out on Wednesday (May 21) showed. BLOOMBERG
Straits Times
21-05-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
China-US trade soars as exporters race to hit tariff truce window
In the week beginning May 12, bookings on freighters headed from China to US more than doubled from prior week. PHOTO: AFP BEIJING - A temporary trade truce between the world's two largest economies has sparked a knee-jerk bounce across China's ports and factory floors. In the week beginning May 12, when the United States and China agreed to sharply reduce tariffs for 90 days, bookings on freighters headed from China to US shores more than doubled from the prior week to about 228,000 TEUs, or twenty-foot equivalent units, data from container-tracking platform Vizion and data provider Dun & Bradstreet shows. Prices for space on ships across the Pacific into the US also rose, with spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles jumping about 16 per cent – the biggest increase for the route this year – to US$3,136 per forty-foot equivalent unit for the week ending May 15, according to the Drewry World Container Index. The global composite index also rose the most this year. And the demand wasn't just by sea: The number of international air cargo flights rose almost 18 per cent, according to data released by China's Ministry of Transport. The surge is likely a wave of front-loading as the trade truce opens a window to avoid steep US tariffs, said Jayendu Krishna, a director at Drewry Maritime Services. It's also an important buying season for the holidays – it takes about a month for items to arrive stateside and retailers are rapidly running through inventory they've had on hand awaiting some trade certainty. 'The current surge in bookings is likely to lead to supply chain disruptions for the next two to three months, unless there is another tariff shock from Mr Trump,' Mr Krishna said. Bookings on ships are due to be filled by factories like supply-chain manager Chen Lei's, which makes various types of home appliance products from coffee machines and toasters to irons and humidifiers. The Guangdong-based manufacturer where Chen works counts Royal Philips and Walmart among clients, and has received a flurry of requests from the US to resume production on orders that were put on hold in April. 'Machines in the factories are working non-stop now,' said Mr Chen, '90 days is too short. Production, shipping - we can't wait a single minute.' A.P. Moller-Maersk, a major container liner that's also one of the largest on the trans-Pacific route, added capacity again after seeing an increase in bookings when the truce was announced, a spokesman said. Even with the boost in activity from earlier weeks, the overall level of shipments remains in-line with this time in 2024. That shows many retailers are either not ordering to the same extent, waiting for more certainty, or maybe have already stocked up earlier this year. Liners were also bringing unused capacity already on these routes back online, with the share of voided sailings down to 13 per cent as of May 26, compared to 25 per cent a week before, data from HSBC and Flexport show. A flurry of trade figures from across Asia this week show the chaos that Mr Trump's policies have wrought this year. In South Korea, the value of exports fell 2.4 per cent in the first 20 days of May from the prior year, with outbound shipments to the US down about 15 per cent. Japanese exports rose only 2 per cent in April – the weakest growth in seven months, data out on May 21 showed. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
