29-01-2025
A Formula One playoff system what-if. Plus: Inside driver development programs
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Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we're wondering why I couldn't drive a car until I passed my driving test when Kimi Antonelli only passed his test this week.
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We are not the same. 🙁
I'm Patrick, and Luke Smith will be along shortly. Let's dive in.
This week, The Athletic's Jeff Gluck reported that NASCAR won't change up its occasionally controversial playoff system for 2025. Since it's in the news, I thought I'd bring back this 2023 thought exercise: what if the 2024 Formula One season had implemented NASCAR's playoff format?
With 10 races left, 16 drivers qualify based on regular season points and wins. After each round, the lowest-scoring drivers are eliminated, with the final race determining the champion among the remaining four contenders. To keep things simple, we're not including drivers who didn't finish the season or only raced a partial season. I'm also ignoring sprint races, which will no doubt please many of you.
Like last year, we'll take the top 16 drivers with 10 races to go (so, after the Belgian Grand Prix). The round of 16 consists of the Dutch GP, the Italian GP and the Azerbaijan GP. Here's how that round shook out:
Hm. Aston Martin sticks out here. Fernando Alonso barely squeaks by the Williams, and Lance Stroll (again) exits stage left in the first round. Nico Hülkenberg advances via tiebreaker (better higher finish) over Kevin Magnussen. On to the round of 12: the Singapore GP, U.S. GP and Mexico City GP.
Haas is into the round of eight! Also, interesting to see the point gaps between teammates forming in this stretch. (Or not forming, in consistent Ferrari's case.) We felt around this time that Sergio Pérez's Red Bull seat was truly in jeopardy, and the numbers here bear it out.
On to the round of eight, then: The São Paulo GP, Las Vegas GP and Qatar GP.
Three rounds, three different winners and three different constructors on top. Again, the numbers reflect the way I remember feeling around that time: Verstappen emphatically slammed the door shut on Norris for the title fight in Brazil and Vegas.
When I started this scenario, I expected Norris to have won the title at Abu Dhabi in the championship round. No! His round-of-eight finishes (sixth, sixth and 10th) absolutely doomed him under this playoff system.
Instead, we have a surprise champion in the final race …
Congratulations to none of you who predicted this final four order before the 2024 season. If you think NASCAR fans are upset about their playoff system, imagine if neither Verstappen nor Norris won the title last year! Imagine if they lost it to Leclerc, who trailed Verstappen by 81 points by season's end.
I love the NASCAR playoffs. They make must-watch events out of late-season races that otherwise wouldn't be interesting. But, yeah… sometimes the playoff system produces outrageous results. The 2024 F1 season was a good season to not have it.
Ever wondered how F1 teams find their drivers? We wrote an explainer piece on F1's sophisticated driver development programs and academies.
I loved this analogy from McLaren's F1 business operations director, Stephanie Carlin: it's like filling up a glass of water. Every driver starts with different levels and needs different things to reach the top. That's where these programs come in.
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While being part of these programs helps (just look at the 2025 grid, where all the new drivers came from team academies), there's no guaranteed ticket to F1. The stars still need to align with perfect timing and available seats, making the journey to F1 one of sport's most exclusive paths. (You could still end up playing Candy Crush, as we found out last year.)
Learn about F1 driver development below, and you can read the rest of our explainers on our F1 page.
GO DEEPER
What are F1 driver development programs? Inside the academies that nurture future champions
News that Johnny Herbert will no longer be a race steward due to the 'incompatible' nature of his media work demonstrates the latest change in F1's officiating.
It's no surprise. The idea of a football referee doing media work where they would talk about their decisions, particularly the awarding of penalties, is fanciful. So why would it be any different in F1?
One key difference is that F1's stewards are still volunteers. The system was thrust into the spotlight toward the end of last year amid controversy over some penalties awarded, prompting drivers to call for greater consistency moving forward.
It is with regret that we announce that Johnny Herbert will no longer fulfil the position of F1 driver steward for the FIA#FIA
— FIA (@fia) January 29, 2025
The way to do that? Make it a full-time, professional panel. I attended the Autosport Business Exchange in London on Wednesday, where Zak Brown, the McLaren Racing CEO, spoke about the issue. He agreed that it was time to make the change to a professional panel doing the role, ensuring there would be consistency.
There is the question of who would pay for it, but Brown said McLaren would be happy to contribute if all the teams, F1 and the FIA were on board. Splitting the costs 13 ways (11 teams from 2026, plus the commercial rights holder, plus the regulator) makes sense. There would be some contractual details to work out, naturally, particularly between FOM and the FIA. But it makes sense.
Dropping Herbert makes sense. But if the FIA is going to really take steps to shore up its stewarding in F1, taking Brown's suggestion on board would be something to consider.
A 1954 Mercedes once driven by F1 legends Juan Manuel Fangio and Stirling Moss might become the most expensive grand prix car in history when auctioned this weekend. Bids are expected to start at $52 million.
It's just a great pic.
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Lewis Hamilton was unhurt after he crashed his Ferrari during a testing session in Barcelona, Spain, on Wednesday. Glad he's OK. Good to get your first crash with your new team out of the way in testing, I suppose. If you missed it, catch up on Hamilton's first week with Ferrari here.
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