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Economic Times
12 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Next bullish phase for Indian markets likely after September 2025, says Samvitti Capital's Prabhakar Kudva
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, S Prabhakar Kudva, Director and Principal Officer at Samvitti Capital, shares his outlook on Indian equities amid ongoing market believes the next major bullish phase for Indian markets is likely to begin after September 2025, following a period of digestion after two strong years of highlights the role of mid and small-cap stocks in driving growth, the resilience of domestic liquidity, and potential FII inflows as global dynamics also discusses key sectors to watch and explains why he views the current phase as a stock picker's market. Edited Excerpts –A) I think we need to take a step back and look at the big picture. We are coming off two very good years (Mar'23 to Sep'24) in the broader equity we are going through in 2025 is best described as a period of digestion or consolidation. In the interim, the markets have navigated elections, multiple wars, and most recently, the 'Trump tantrums'.Against this backdrop, the markets are doing just okay. That said, there is no major reason for any immediate large upside as earnings growth has been good but is already well priced there is little fear of a large downside given the strong domestic liquidity and under-weight FII positioning.A) Typically, Q1 is a weaker quarter compared to Q4, so the first thing is we should avoid QoQ comparisons. Last year, Q1 was all about elections, followed by a low-growth year, I expect both Q1 and Q2—and maybe even Q3—to enjoy a low base effect and deliver reasonably good growth has been the trend over the last few years, the action is likely to be in the mid and small-cap space, while large caps will provide more sedate returns overall.A) As mentioned earlier, we are now in a rangebound market after a bullish phase that lasted 18-24 months until Sep'24. This rangebound phase typically lasts around 12 months, so the next leg may start only after Sep'25 or course, this is just conjecture based on historical patterns. In this environment, only a few sectors will do well. One needs to identify these outperforming sectors and allocate to quality stocks during corrective phases.A) The SIP momentum picked up post-Covid and has been continuing ever since. I believe the new generation of investors understands that significant wealth creation is possible only in equity investors who started small in 2021 have done very well over the last four years and are consistently increasing their looks like a secular trend, and we should not be surprised if SIP flows continue to rise and the numbers become truly staggering over the next decade.A) I think it's neither valuations nor growth. FIIs have been under-weight on India over the last few years primarily because they've been doing so well in their home countries, especially with the Mag7 and big tech companies performing exceedingly hasn't been a pressing reason for them to step out, particularly when most global markets struggled post-Covid. India, of course, has been an exception with strong in terms of allocations, we're still bucketed with other Emerging Markets, and overall allocations to this segment were probably reduced. Also, the US dollar has been very strong during this only now, post-Trump, that the dollar weakness has begun, and as a result, emerging markets—including India—are starting to pick this trend continues, we can expect FII allocations to India and other EMs to increase materially, something we've started to see in recent months.A) My focus has always been on growth. I believe sectors like Pharma, Auto Components, Defence, Power, Data Centres, EPC, Value Retail, and Wealth Management are likely to perform well.A) We've seen a reasonable correction across the board over the last six months, so a lot of froth has been cleared out. I wouldn't say valuations are cheap, but at the same time, they're not overheated either—broadly course, on a stock-specific basis, there will always be pockets of over-valuation, but overall, I don't see much overheating at this point.A) I believe the responsibility doesn't lie solely with SEBI but with the entire ecosystem. Investor education is crucial because, ultimately, if people are inclined to gamble, they'll find ways to do so outside of markets as said, I'm not in favour of over-regulation as long as there's no misconduct, because excessive regulations can also hurt genuine players. It's a delicate balance, and SEBI has been doing an exemplary job in keeping our markets clean. That focus should continue.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Next bullish phase for Indian markets likely after September 2025, says Samvitti Capital's Prabhakar Kudva
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, S Prabhakar Kudva, Director and Principal Officer at Samvitti Capital, shares his outlook on Indian equities amid ongoing market consolidation. Kudva believes the next major bullish phase for Indian markets is likely to begin after September 2025, following a period of digestion after two strong years of rally. He highlights the role of mid and small-cap stocks in driving growth, the resilience of domestic liquidity, and potential FII inflows as global dynamics shift. Kudva also discusses key sectors to watch and explains why he views the current phase as a stock picker's market. Edited Excerpts – Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Operations Management Leadership Management CXO MCA Design Thinking Others Technology Cybersecurity PGDM Healthcare Degree Data Analytics Public Policy healthcare MBA Product Management Finance Data Science Digital Marketing Data Science others Artificial Intelligence Project Management Skills you'll gain: Quality Management & Lean Six Sigma Analytical Tools Supply Chain Management & Strategies Service Operations Management Duration: 10 Months IIM Lucknow IIML Executive Programme in Strategic Operations Management & Supply Chain Analytics Starts on Jan 27, 2024 Get Details Q) Markets are struggling in the first month of 2H2025. What is limiting the upside? A) I think we need to take a step back and look at the big picture. We are coming off two very good years (Mar'23 to Sep'24) in the broader equity market. What we are going through in 2025 is best described as a period of digestion or consolidation. In the interim, the markets have navigated elections, multiple wars, and most recently, the 'Trump tantrums'. Against this backdrop, the markets are doing just okay. That said, there is no major reason for any immediate large upside as earnings growth has been good but is already well priced in. Also, there is little fear of a large downside given the strong domestic liquidity and under-weight FII positioning. Q) The June quarter season has just begun – how do you see India Inc. faring in this quarter? Which sectors should investors watch out for? A) Typically, Q1 is a weaker quarter compared to Q4, so the first thing is we should avoid QoQ comparisons. Last year, Q1 was all about elections, followed by a low-growth Q2. This year, I expect both Q1 and Q2—and maybe even Q3—to enjoy a low base effect and deliver reasonably good growth overall. As has been the trend over the last few years, the action is likely to be in the mid and small-cap space, while large caps will provide more sedate returns overall. Q) Everyone says it is a stock pickers' market now and the days of easy money are over. What are your views? A) As mentioned earlier, we are now in a rangebound market after a bullish phase that lasted 18-24 months until Sep'24. This rangebound phase typically lasts around 12 months, so the next leg may start only after Sep'25 or so. Of course, this is just conjecture based on historical patterns. In this environment, only a few sectors will do well. One needs to identify these outperforming sectors and allocate to quality stocks during corrective phases. Q) SIP crossed ₹27,000 crore for the first time in June. What is boosting the momentum? A) The SIP momentum picked up post-Covid and has been continuing ever since. I believe the new generation of investors understands that significant wealth creation is possible only in equity markets. Many investors who started small in 2021 have done very well over the last four years and are consistently increasing their exposure. This looks like a secular trend, and we should not be surprised if SIP flows continue to rise and the numbers become truly staggering over the next decade. Q) FIIs are still not back in India completely. Are valuations or earnings acting as headwinds? A) I think it's neither valuations nor growth. FIIs have been under-weight on India over the last few years primarily because they've been doing so well in their home countries, especially with the Mag7 and big tech companies performing exceedingly well. There hasn't been a pressing reason for them to step out, particularly when most global markets struggled post-Covid. India, of course, has been an exception with strong growth. However, in terms of allocations, we're still bucketed with other Emerging Markets, and overall allocations to this segment were probably reduced. Also, the US dollar has been very strong during this period. It's only now, post-Trump, that the dollar weakness has begun, and as a result, emerging markets—including India—are starting to pick up. If this trend continues, we can expect FII allocations to India and other EMs to increase materially, something we've started to see in recent months. Q) Which sectors are likely to drive momentum in 2H2025? A) My focus has always been on growth. I believe sectors like Pharma, Auto Components, Defence, Power, Data Centres, EPC, Value Retail, and Wealth Management are likely to perform well. Q) Any sectors you think are overheated? A) We've seen a reasonable correction across the board over the last six months, so a lot of froth has been cleared out. I wouldn't say valuations are cheap, but at the same time, they're not overheated either—broadly speaking. Of course, on a stock-specific basis, there will always be pockets of over-valuation, but overall, I don't see much overheating at this point. Q) Despite recent regulatory steps, retail investors still account for 91% of the losses in the derivatives segment. What more can SEBI do to protect them? A) I believe the responsibility doesn't lie solely with SEBI but with the entire ecosystem. Investor education is crucial because, ultimately, if people are inclined to gamble, they'll find ways to do so outside of markets as well. That said, I'm not in favour of over-regulation as long as there's no misconduct, because excessive regulations can also hurt genuine players. It's a delicate balance, and SEBI has been doing an exemplary job in keeping our markets clean. That focus should continue.
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Chasing easy money is the quickest way to lose it, warns Vivek Sharma of Estee Advisors
Vivek Sharma of Estee Advisors suggests discipline beats speculation for wealth. Markets are near September levels, Q1 earnings are modest. Sharma dismisses chasing quick money. Estee's Long Alpha portfolio delivered nearly 35% returns over five years. FII inflows are modest, domestic funds cushion impact. SEBI is a regulator, not a guardian, on derivatives losses. Investors must take responsibility. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Vivek Sharma, Vice President and Head of Investments at Estee Advisors, highlights why chasing quick returns in the market often leads to financial explains that successful investing isn't about finding the next multibagger or following market noise, but about maintaining discipline and on Estee's systematic, quant-driven approach, he shares insights on why data and long-term strategy trump speculation and short-term bets in creating sustainable wealth. Edited Excerpts –A) Struggling is a stretch—we're just ten days into H2. Markets are back near September 2024 levels, absorbing the gains from a strong the short term, there's more noise than signal. Q1 earnings are expected to be modest at 4–5% YoY, below the 10% projected for FY26, and global jitters aren't it's hard to reliably translate any of this into clear outcomes. It's always more prudent to focus on the long term than react to short-term noise.A) It's very hard to make reliable quarter-on-quarter projections. Short-term earnings and market movements are often dominated by noise and sentiments rather than information.A well-known study by Philip Tetlock showed that expert forecasts—particularly those made with high confidence—were often no better than random chance. At Estee, we take that than trying to predict how each quarter will play out, we focus on maintaining a long-term, systematic models adapt to evolving data over time, allowing us to stay responsive without being reactive. That's been far more effective than chasing short-term noise.A) In my experience, chasing easy money is the quickest way to lose hard-earned a systematic quant investor, I don't subscribe to the idea that wealth creation depends on finding that one golden multibagger or having access to insider Long Alpha portfolio is built on a disciplined, factor-based strategy and typically holds 80 to 100 stocks. This breadth helps manage risk efficiently while still generating healthy the past five years, the strategy has delivered returns of nearly 35%. That's not luck—it's the result of staying systematic and consistent. In investing, it's discipline that compounds, not shortcuts.A) FIIs have been net sellers since October last year and were a major catalyst behind the market drawdown. While some inflows have returned, they remain modest relative to the earlier flows are rarely dictated by a single factor—it's a blend of valuations, earnings outlook, global rates, amongst other stood out in this phase was the strength of domestic mutual fund flows. Equity inflows remained strong and helped cushion the impact of FII selling—reflecting the rising confidence among retail investors in India's long-term fundamentals.A) We don't make directional sector calls. Sector performance tends to be cyclical and unpredictable—what outperforms in one half can underperform in the approach remains sector-agnostic, relying on data and factor signals to dynamically allocate exposure. This helps us stay balanced and responsive, without anchoring to short-term themes.A) Rather than label sectors as overheated, we prefer to let the data speak. Our models track valuation dislocations and crowding indicators, and rebalance exposure excesses—when they appear—get corrected through our systematic process without needing to make subjective calls.A) I think we need to move beyond the notion of SEBI being a protector of retail investors. SEBI is a regulator, not a guardian. Greed is a deeply rooted human trait—despite knowing the odds are stacked against them, people still gamble, and that industry thrives in derivatives to earn quick money taps into the same impulse. SEBI has done commendable work on investor education, and the risks are now well ultimately, adults making wilful decisions in pursuit of profit must bear responsibility for the outcomes.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Fixed Income is portfolio's seatbelt against volatility: Chakri Lokapriya of LGT Wealth India
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Chakri Lokapriya, CIO – Equities at LGT Wealth India , explains why fixed income should be viewed as a critical stabilizer in any investment portfolio Comparing it to a 'seatbelt' that quietly cushions against market volatility, Lokapriya highlights the importance of allocating 20–30% of portfolios to high-quality bonds , especially in today's uncertain global believes fixed income is not just about safety but about steady compounding and risk management, making it a foundational element in long-term wealth creation. Edited Excerpts –A) The scene is the place for a lovely outcome of markets moving higher, and closing CY2025 with a 10% to 12% gain. However, the big elephant in the room is US Tariffs India is expected to conclude the talks by the end of July 2025. And it is evident that India would not budge on allowing access to US agricultural or dairy products, as it is detrimental to the livelihood of 60% of India's farmers.A tariff deal without the above two items is the big event to watch for and markets would take a decisive directional move based on the outcome of the U.S. Tariff deal with India.A) We are running well diversified portfolios with good earnings we are taking a balanced approach in rebalancing portfolios to volatile decisions such as raising and lowering tariffs.A) 2020 was a watershed moment for India's corporate in managing cash flows and maintaining sufficient liquidity to counter uncertain 2020, many Indian companies have balanced capital expenditure versus profit growth admirably a number of Sunrise sectors, old-world in many respects such as Defence, Railways, Semiconductors are structurally allowing Corporate India's profits to growth faster than the GDPA) In Electronics and Semiconductors: growth is Fuelled by import substitution ,PLI. US and Europe shifting sourcing from China to is the leader in Electronics System Design and Manufacturing (ESDM), (40% of output and 30% of exports). India stands at 2% therefore huge room to rising share of electronic content across automobiles, CD, Industrial translates into a higher addressable market for EMS. India semiconductor market size to surpass $55 bn by electronics market is at $150 bn, to grow to $500 bn and create 6mn jobs by 2030. PM Modi's goal 100% of electronic manufacturing in India.A) In an uncertain world, fixed income is your portfolio's seatbelt—quiet, steady, and critical when volatility hits. Allocating 20–30% of your portfolio to bonds can help cushion equity swings and deliver a reliable environment of moderating rates and strong credit spreads makes this a smart time to lock into high-quality instruments, such as government bonds, AAA corporates, and select high-yield of it as earning while you wait—letting your capital work quietly in the background. The goal isn't just safety—it's smart, steady compounding through cycles. In a well-built portfolio, fixed income isn't optional—it's foundational.A) Energy as a sector will be in the spotlight in 2H2025. India with 1.4 billion population, urbanization, 22 GW by 2032, net-zero by 2070. Retrofitting coal-fired plants for efficiency and nuclear energy, targets of 500 GW by 2030 (50% non-fossil fuel electricity), with PLI, waived transmission charges, National Solar Mission, Hydro and Wind. Nuclear power generation target of 100 GW by managing solar and wind energy, Battery energy storage systems (BESS) demand to reach 60 GW by 2030. India's abundance in thorium, uranium, solar, and wind reduce import dependency.A) Yes Indeed, India was and is a stock pickers market with over 6,000 companies to select from. We aim to look for stocks that have strong earnings visibility due to an acceleration of business, recovering balance sheets.A) Past two years have had multiple war-like situations and the US too joined the the tariff has left countries finding ways to control inflation. Against this backdrop, Gold continues to be a hedge against inflation and an investment vehicle.A) The cumulative 100bps rate cut significantly reduces borrowing and working capital costs, especially for capital-intensive sectors like power utilities (thermal/renewable) and spending is poised to benefit ahead of the upcoming budget, potentially accelerating revenue growth by 12–18%. The mid cap sector is expected to grow at 17% to 20% outpacing 8% to 10% growth of the large cap.A) Telecom as a sector has huge levels of debt, and regulatory and court interventions and therefore remain cautious.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Fixed Income is portfolio's seatbelt against volatility: Chakri Lokapriya of LGT Wealth India
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Chakri Lokapriya, CIO – Equities at LGT Wealth India , explains why fixed income should be viewed as a critical stabilizer in any investment portfolio . Comparing it to a 'seatbelt' that quietly cushions against market volatility, Lokapriya highlights the importance of allocating 20–30% of portfolios to high-quality bonds , especially in today's uncertain global environment. He believes fixed income is not just about safety but about steady compounding and risk management, making it a foundational element in long-term wealth creation. Edited Excerpts – Q) Nifty closed with marginal gains in June, but for the first six months of 2025, it is up over 7%. How do you see markets for the rest of FY26? Any big events to watch out for? A) The scene is the place for a lovely outcome of markets moving higher, and closing CY2025 with a 10% to 12% gain. However, the big elephant in the room is US Tariffs . Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Data Science healthcare Artificial Intelligence Product Management Project Management CXO MCA Data Analytics Degree Operations Management Design Thinking PGDM Leadership MBA Management Digital Marketing Healthcare Public Policy Cybersecurity Finance Technology Others Data Science others Skills you'll gain: Strategic Data-Analysis, including Data Mining & Preparation Predictive Modeling & Advanced Clustering Techniques Machine Learning Concepts & Regression Analysis Cutting-edge applications of AI, like NLP & Generative AI Duration: 8 Months IIM Kozhikode Professional Certificate in Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Starts on Jun 26, 2024 Get Details Skills you'll gain: Data Analysis & Interpretation Programming Proficiency Problem-Solving Skills Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence Duration: 24 Months Vellore Institute of Technology VIT MSc in Data Science Starts on Aug 14, 2024 Get Details India is expected to conclude the talks by the end of July 2025. And it is evident that India would not budge on allowing access to US agricultural or dairy products, as it is detrimental to the livelihood of 60% of India's farmers. Bonds Corner Powered By India bonds seen steady ahead of RBI's debt sale, liquidity moves Indian government bond yields are anticipated to remain stable as traders await the weekly debt auction. The central bank's substantial liquidity withdrawal operation is fostering investor caution. Rate cut bets have increased following a drop in retail inflation, while shorter duration overnight index swap rates are expected to experience paying pressure due to the RBI's cash withdrawal. Why did RBI accept 79% of buyback bids despite high demand? Japan bonds tread water as wary investors await weekend election ETMarkets Smart Talk | Fixed Income is portfolio's seatbelt against volatility: Chakri Lokapriya of LGT Wealth India RBI plans bond switch to ease redemption load Browse all Bonds News with A tariff deal without the above two items is the big event to watch for and markets would take a decisive directional move based on the outcome of the U.S. Tariff deal with India. Q) How are you managing the volatility in your portfolio? Any key learnings which you would like to share from 1H2025? Live Events A) We are running well diversified portfolios with good earnings visibility. Furthermore, we are taking a balanced approach in rebalancing portfolios to volatile decisions such as raising and lowering tariffs. Q) One of the reports suggested that India Inc.'s profits have grown nearly 3x faster than GDP since FY20. What structural factors are driving this divergence? A) 2020 was a watershed moment for India's corporate in managing cash flows and maintaining sufficient liquidity to counter uncertain periods. Since 2020, many Indian companies have balanced capital expenditure versus profit growth admirably well. Moreover, a number of Sunrise sectors, old-world in many respects such as Defence, Railways, Semiconductors are structurally allowing Corporate India's profits to growth faster than the GDP Q) With the China+1 theme gaining traction, which Indian sectors are best placed to attract global capital and scale? A) In Electronics and Semiconductors: growth is Fuelled by import substitution ,PLI. US and Europe shifting sourcing from China to India. China is the leader in Electronics System Design and Manufacturing (ESDM), (40% of output and 30% of exports). India stands at 2% therefore huge room to grow. The rising share of electronic content across automobiles, CD, Industrial translates into a higher addressable market for EMS. India semiconductor market size to surpass $55 bn by 2026. India's electronics market is at $150 bn, to grow to $500 bn and create 6mn jobs by 2030. PM Modi's goal 100% of electronic manufacturing in India. Q) How is fixed income as an asset class looking for long-term investment? How much money should one allocate as a hedge to combat volatility? A) In an uncertain world, fixed income is your portfolio's seatbelt—quiet, steady, and critical when volatility hits. Allocating 20–30% of your portfolio to bonds can help cushion equity swings and deliver a reliable income. Today's environment of moderating rates and strong credit spreads makes this a smart time to lock into high-quality instruments, such as government bonds, AAA corporates, and select high-yield credits. Think of it as earning while you wait—letting your capital work quietly in the background. The goal isn't just safety—it's smart, steady compounding through cycles. In a well-built portfolio, fixed income isn't optional—it's foundational. Q) Which sectors are likely to remain in the spotlight in 2H2025? A) Energy as a sector will be in the spotlight in 2H2025. India with 1.4 billion population, urbanization, 22 GW by 2032, net-zero by 2070. Retrofitting coal-fired plants for efficiency and nuclear hubs. Renewable energy, targets of 500 GW by 2030 (50% non-fossil fuel electricity), with PLI, waived transmission charges, National Solar Mission, Hydro and Wind. Nuclear power generation target of 100 GW by 2047. For managing solar and wind energy, Battery energy storage systems (BESS) demand to reach 60 GW by 2030. India's abundance in thorium, uranium, solar, and wind reduce import dependency. Q) Can we say that we are in a "stock picker's market" ahead? If yes, what are the key traits investors should look for in FY26 picks? A) Yes Indeed, India was and is a stock pickers market with over 6,000 companies to select from. We aim to look for stocks that have strong earnings visibility due to an acceleration of business, recovering balance sheets. Q) Gold has also seen a tremendous run in 2025 – how do you see the yellow metal shining in 2H2025? Time to book profits or add on dips? A) Past two years have had multiple war-like situations and the US too joined the conflict. And the tariff has left countries finding ways to control inflation. Against this backdrop, Gold continues to be a hedge against inflation and an investment vehicle. Q) How should one play the small & midcap theme? Has the profitability improved compared to large caps? What does the data suggest? A) The cumulative 100bps rate cut significantly reduces borrowing and working capital costs, especially for capital-intensive sectors like power utilities (thermal/renewable) and mining. Infrastructure spending is poised to benefit ahead of the upcoming budget, potentially accelerating revenue growth by 12–18%. The mid cap sector is expected to grow at 17% to 20% outpacing 8% to 10% growth of the large cap. Q) Any sector that is running out of steam and investors should carefully pare their positions? A) Telecom as a sector has huge levels of debt, and regulatory and court interventions and therefore remain cautious. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
