logo
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Next bullish phase for Indian markets likely after September 2025, says Samvitti Capital's Prabhakar Kudva

ETMarkets Smart Talk: Next bullish phase for Indian markets likely after September 2025, says Samvitti Capital's Prabhakar Kudva

Time of India7 days ago
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, S Prabhakar Kudva, Director and Principal Officer at Samvitti Capital, shares his outlook on Indian equities amid ongoing market consolidation.
Kudva believes the next major bullish phase for Indian markets is likely to begin after September 2025, following a period of digestion after two strong years of rally.
He highlights the role of
mid and small-cap stocks
in driving growth, the resilience of domestic liquidity, and potential
FII inflows
as global dynamics shift.
Kudva also discusses key sectors to watch and explains why he views the current phase as a stock picker's market. Edited Excerpts –
Explore courses from Top Institutes in
Select a Course Category
Operations Management
Leadership
Management
CXO
MCA
Design Thinking
Others
Technology
Cybersecurity
PGDM
Healthcare
Degree
Data Analytics
Public Policy
healthcare
MBA
Product Management
Finance
Data Science
Digital Marketing
Data Science
others
Artificial Intelligence
Project Management
Skills you'll gain:
Quality Management & Lean Six Sigma
Analytical Tools
Supply Chain Management & Strategies
Service Operations Management
Duration:
10 Months
IIM Lucknow
IIML Executive Programme in Strategic Operations Management & Supply Chain Analytics
Starts on
Jan 27, 2024
Get Details
Q) Markets are struggling in the first month of 2H2025. What is limiting the upside?
A) I think we need to take a step back and look at the big picture. We are coming off two very good years (Mar'23 to Sep'24) in the broader equity market.
What we are going through in 2025 is best described as a period of digestion or consolidation. In the interim, the markets have navigated elections, multiple wars, and most recently, the 'Trump tantrums'.
Against this backdrop, the markets are doing just okay. That said, there is no major reason for any immediate large upside as earnings growth has been good but is already well priced in.
Also, there is little fear of a large downside given the strong domestic liquidity and under-weight FII positioning.
Q) The June quarter season has just begun – how do you see India Inc. faring in this quarter? Which sectors should investors watch out for?
A) Typically, Q1 is a weaker quarter compared to Q4, so the first thing is we should avoid QoQ comparisons. Last year, Q1 was all about elections, followed by a low-growth Q2.
This year, I expect both Q1 and Q2—and maybe even Q3—to enjoy a low base effect and deliver reasonably good growth overall.
As has been the trend over the last few years, the action is likely to be in the mid and small-cap space, while large caps will provide more sedate returns overall.
Q) Everyone says it is a stock pickers' market now and the days of easy money are over. What are your views?
A) As mentioned earlier, we are now in a rangebound market after a bullish phase that lasted 18-24 months until Sep'24. This rangebound phase typically lasts around 12 months, so the next leg may start only after Sep'25 or so.
Of course, this is just conjecture based on historical patterns. In this environment, only a few sectors will do well. One needs to identify these outperforming sectors and allocate to quality stocks during corrective phases.
Q) SIP crossed ₹27,000 crore for the first time in June. What is boosting the momentum?
A) The SIP momentum picked up post-Covid and has been continuing ever since. I believe the new generation of investors understands that significant wealth creation is possible only in equity markets.
Many investors who started small in 2021 have done very well over the last four years and are consistently increasing their exposure.
This looks like a secular trend, and we should not be surprised if SIP flows continue to rise and the numbers become truly staggering over the next decade.
Q) FIIs are still not back in India completely. Are valuations or earnings acting as headwinds?
A) I think it's neither valuations nor growth. FIIs have been under-weight on India over the last few years primarily because they've been doing so well in their home countries, especially with the Mag7 and big tech companies performing exceedingly well.
There hasn't been a pressing reason for them to step out, particularly when most global markets struggled post-Covid. India, of course, has been an exception with strong growth.
However, in terms of allocations, we're still bucketed with other Emerging Markets, and overall allocations to this segment were probably reduced. Also, the US dollar has been very strong during this period.
It's only now, post-Trump, that the dollar weakness has begun, and as a result, emerging markets—including India—are starting to pick up.
If this trend continues, we can expect FII allocations to India and other EMs to increase materially, something we've started to see in recent months.
Q) Which sectors are likely to drive momentum in 2H2025?
A) My focus has always been on growth. I believe sectors like Pharma, Auto Components, Defence, Power, Data Centres, EPC, Value Retail, and Wealth Management are likely to perform well.
Q) Any sectors you think are overheated?
A) We've seen a reasonable correction across the board over the last six months, so a lot of froth has been cleared out. I wouldn't say valuations are cheap, but at the same time, they're not overheated either—broadly speaking.
Of course, on a stock-specific basis, there will always be pockets of over-valuation, but overall, I don't see much overheating at this point.
Q) Despite recent regulatory steps, retail investors still account for 91% of the losses in the derivatives segment. What more can SEBI do to protect them?
A) I believe the responsibility doesn't lie solely with SEBI but with the entire ecosystem. Investor education is crucial because, ultimately, if people are inclined to gamble, they'll find ways to do so outside of markets as well.
That said, I'm not in favour of over-regulation as long as there's no misconduct, because excessive regulations can also hurt genuine players. It's a delicate balance, and SEBI has been doing an exemplary job in keeping our markets clean. That focus should continue.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Lenskart gets shareholder approval for $250 million IPO fundraise
Lenskart gets shareholder approval for $250 million IPO fundraise

Business Standard

time25 minutes ago

  • Business Standard

Lenskart gets shareholder approval for $250 million IPO fundraise

Indian eyewear retailer Lenskart secured shareholder approval to raise $250 million through a fresh share issue, setting the stage for a public offering that could reach $1 billion, including existing investor sales, according to sources. It is aiming for an IPO valuation of about $10 billion. 'The company got approval for the $250 million IPO fundraise. The offer for sale (OFS) would be decided later,' said a person familiar with the matter. The company plans to file its prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) soon, joining a wave of technology startups—including trading platform Groww, e-commerce firm Meesho, and education company PhysicsWallah—that are preparing to go public in 2025. Lenskart's move comes as the $5 billion company—recently marked up to $6.1 billion by Fidelity—seeks to capitalize on robust growth in India's retail market. The Gurugram-based firm reported 43 per cent revenue growth to Rs 5,427.7 crore in FY24 from Rs 3,788 crore in FY23, while narrowing its losses by 84 per cent to Rs 10 crore in FY24 from Rs 63 crore in FY23. The IPO approval includes a pre-listing fundraising round of $51 million and a new employee stock plan covering 7.2 million shares. Lenskart operates more than 2,500 stores globally and is investing $200 million in a manufacturing facility in southern India. Lenskart continues to deepen its penetration in India while rapidly scaling its international presence, including in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. With a unique click-and-mortar business model, it is disrupting the eyewear industry by offering an omni-channel customer experience across online platforms, mobile applications, and stores. Globally and in India, Gurugram-based Lenskart competes with players such as Titan Eyeplus, Specsmakers, Vision Express, Warby Parker, and Italian eyewear conglomerate Luxottica Group.

Suresh Narayanan steps down after leading Nestlé India's revival and expansion
Suresh Narayanan steps down after leading Nestlé India's revival and expansion

Time of India

time29 minutes ago

  • Time of India

Suresh Narayanan steps down after leading Nestlé India's revival and expansion

Representative image Suresh Narayanan , who steered Nestlé India through the most challenging "existential" Maggi crisis, will retire on July 31 after a decade at the helm—a satisfied man. That sense of satisfaction stems from leaving the packaged food major in significantly better shape, with revenue growing at 10 per cent CAGR, profit after tax rising nearly six times, and market capitalisation increasing almost fourfold over the past 10 years. Appointed as CMD in 2015, Narayanan is widely credited with resurrecting Maggi—the company's flagship brand—after it was pulled off kitchen shelves due to a regulatory ban. During his tenure, he fired the company's innovation engine with a diversified and future-ready portfolio, rejuvenating it by launching over 150 new products—which now contribute about 7 per cent of sales—and delivering consistent growth, even amid post-COVID volatility in the FMCG sector, stubborn commodity inflation, and a consumption slowdown. 'I am happy to leave behind a culture of respect, courtesy, dignity, and trust, which is all-pervasive, has helped us through good times and bad, and the extent of diversity we've been able to provide. It is the strength of teams, brands, and conviction that has made us stand up to the odds and deliver 10 years of consistent performance. We were once seen as an urban company with a limited portfolio, but through a penetration-led volume growth strategy rolled out in 2015, we now have access to more households and more consumption occasions,' Narayanan told TOI in an exit interview. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like After Losing Weight Kevin James Looks Like A Model 33 Bridges Undo Following the setback, Maggi recovered 60 per cent of its market share within months of its relaunch in November 2015, bouncing back from near-extinction and reaffirming its place in Indian kitchens, eventually making India its largest market globally. 'Post the crisis, our levels of respect and trust have gone up. We came back from a dead brand into life. We moved from strength to strength,' he recounted. Over the years, Nestlé has delivered steady growth by focusing on premiumisation, a consumer cluster-based and 'Rurban' strategy, and expansion into new businesses—driving both top-line and bottom-line performance. 'One of the things I feel satisfied about is that there were two or three businesses I was keen to start in India. One was the breakfast cereals business, then pet care business and the third was Nespresso—all are now here,' Narayanan said. Also, 'we wanted to grow health science, and the joint venture with Dr Reddy's has given us that opportunity. So we are well placed not just in our core, but also in new, emerging opportunities—where there is a lot of potential for growth,' he added. Narayanan began his career at Nestlé India in 1999 as executive VP (sales), playing a key role in expanding the company's strategic footprint, and over the years, leading strategic transformations across core functions and major geographies. 'We have come a long way from those difficult (Maggi) days, and it feels good to give shareholders a bonus issue (upon farewell),' he added. Investor expectations, too, have been well met, with Narayanan delivering on three key demands: better returns, a 1:10 share split last year, and the company's first-ever 1:1 bonus issue this year. As he prepares to step down after 26 years with Nestlé, passing the baton to Manish Tiwary—former Country Manager of Amazon India—who takes over as CMD from August 1, the FMCG landscape is showing encouraging signs of recovery. Green shoots are becoming visible in urban demand after months of slowdown, supported by easing inflation and recent fiscal and monetary policy measures. Rurban markets (semi-urban and rural) have also demonstrated positive momentum, contributing to overall market resilience. This is a positive sign for companies like Nestlé, where urban markets remain key growth drivers, he said. At the same time, the value segment is seeing traction, supported by more benign inflation, a better monsoon, improved incomes—all contributing to a more favourable environment for consumption-led growth, he added. Amid these evolving market dynamics, the lens of sustainability remains ever-present in the company's business strategy, particularly in light of two significant challenges, according to him. First, consumers are increasingly demanding higher standards of governance and sustainability in the brands and products they choose—a global shift reflecting rising consumer consciousness. Second, regulatory bodies worldwide are raising the bar for product specifications, requiring companies to 'walk the talk' by enhancing the quality of their offerings to meet both consumer expectations and stricter regulatory standards. A rising tide lifts all boats. In the interconnectedness between consumer demands and regulatory responses lies the necessity for businesses to adapt and evolve in this changing landscape,' Narayanan says. Responding to a question on the company's strategy of steering clear of mergers and acquisitions, he said, 'We continue to explore good opportunities. But again, the question is one of valuation, potential, synergies, and growth opportunities that we see.' Using his experience at Nestlé, he now wants to guide senior executives on the pillars of strategy, leadership, and crisis management—all of which he honed during his time at the company. These, he believes, are increasingly essential in a world where crises are no longer exceptions but part of the norm. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now

Study In Canada: Top Universities, Courses And Application Process
Study In Canada: Top Universities, Courses And Application Process

NDTV

time30 minutes ago

  • NDTV

Study In Canada: Top Universities, Courses And Application Process

Study In Canada: Canada continues to be a top destination for Indian students due to its multicultural environment and world-class education system, home to prestigious institutions like McGill University and the University of Toronto. To study in Canada, students must secure admission to a Designated Learning Institution (DLI). Top Universities And Their Courses In Canada University of Toronto The University of Toronto is ranked as the second-best university in Canada but holds the top position across all major subject areas among Canadian institutions, according to the QS University Rankings 2026. It offers a total of 151 undergraduate and postgraduate programs. The five broader subjects and University of Toronto's ranking globally is as follows: Arts and Humanities - 14 Engineering and Technology - 17 Life Sciences and Medicine - 13 Natural Sciences - 20 Social Sciences and Management - 14 University of British Columbia The University of British Columbia is ranked third best in Canada with global ranking of 40. This university provides 255 bachelor's courses and 236 master's courses. Arts and Humanities - 19 Engineering and Technology -31 Life Sciences and Medicine - 25 Natural Sciences - 22 Social Sciences and Management - 20 McGill University McGill University is the best university in Canada and ranked 27th globally as per the QS World Rankings 2026. This university provides a total of 498 undergraduate and postgraduate programs. Here are the subject-wise rankings for McGill University: Arts and Humanities - 36 Engineering and Technology - 45 Life Sciences and Medicine -27 Natural Sciences - 48 Social Sciences and Management - 39 Application Eligibility Requirements Before applying for a study permit, students must get registered with a Designated Learning Institution (DLI)- which could be a school, university or college, from where students will have to first receive an offer of admission. Students will also be required to submit a proof of having enough funds to handle expenses such as tuition-fees, living expenses, return-transportation. Students will also need to prove to an officer that they will leave Canada once their study permit expires. They may also be required to go under Medical examination. Students who wish to remain in Canada after graduation can apply for a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP), which is granted based on several factors including the length and type of study program.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store