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Irish Times
18-05-2025
- Politics
- Irish Times
Romanian run-off the most crucial vote on Europe's ‘Super Sunday' of elections
Romanians are voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country's strategic alignment and economic prospects, as voters in Poland and Portugal also cast their ballots in a European electoral 'super Sunday'. The Romanian contest, the most consequential of the three, pits a brash, EU -critical, Trump-admiring populist against a centrist independent in a knife-edge vote that analysts have called most important in the country's post-communist history. George Simion, a former soccer ultra and ultranationalist agitator who sees his far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party as a 'natural ally' of the US Maga movement, comfortably won the May 4th first round with a score of 41 per cent, double that of the Bucharest mayor, Nicuşor Dan. Recent polls have shown the gap between the two candidates closing, with one putting them neck and neck and another placing Mr Dan – who has described the vote as a battle between 'a pro-western and an anti-western Romania' – ahead. READ MORE 'This election isn't just about the president of Romania but about its entire direction,' said Siegfried Mureşan, a liberal Romanian MEP. Mr Simion would 'weaken Europe's unity, undermine support for Ukraine, and benefit only Vladimir Putin,' he added. In Poland, 13 contenders are vying to be the country's next head of state in the first round of presidential elections, with the centrist mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, a senior member of prime minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition, the front-runner. Polls predict that Mr Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, a historian who is formally independent but has been endorsed by the former national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government, will advance to the second round, which is due on June 1st. A win for the centrist would boost Mr Tusk's ability to push through his reformist agenda, which has been hampered by Polish presidents' power to veto legislation passed by parliament. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a PiS ally. Portugal, meanwhile, heads to the polls for its third snap general election in three years after the centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, triggered and lost a confidence vote in parliament over questions about his family's business activities. Mr Montenegro's Democratic Alliance platform is forecast to finish first but fall short of a majority, and could struggle to form a government, especially if the Socialist party, likely to finish second, keeps its pledge to oppose his legislative agenda. Mr Montenegro has vowed not to work with the far-right Chega, whose leader, former TV football pundit André Ventura, was hospitalised on Friday after twice collapsing at rallies, but could be replaced as party leader with someone more Chega-compatible. In Romania, Mr Simion's first-round win triggered the collapse of Romania's government of centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) and centre-right Liberals (PNL), and whoever wins will nominate the next prime minister and influence the formation of a new ruling coalition. The vote is a rerun of last November's ballot, won by a far-right, Moscow-friendly firebrand, Călin Georgescu, who was barred from standing again after the vote was cancelled amid allegations of campaign finance violations and Russian meddling. Mr Simion has promised to nominate Mr Georgescu, who is under formal investigation on counts including misreporting campaign spending, illegal use of digital technology and promoting fascist groups, as prime minister if he becomes president. Romanian presidents have a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They can also dissolve parliament if MPs reject two prime ministerial nominations. Analysts have said that since neither PSD or PNL would want a snap election with Mr Simion's AUR – the second biggest party in parliament – in the ascendant, a minority AUR-led government, backed perhaps by PSD, is a clear possibility if Mr Simion wins. Mr Simion opposes further aid to Ukraine and has sharply criticised the EU's leadership. While he insists he wants Romania to stay in the EU and Nato, he could ally with Hungary's Viktor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico as another disruptive force. – Guardian
The Guardian
18-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Romanian run-off the most crucial on Europe's ‘Super Sunday' of elections
Romanians have started voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country's strategic alignment and economic prospects, as voters in Poland and Portugal also prepare to cast their ballots in a European electoral 'super Sunday'. The Romanian contest, the most consequential of the three, pits a brash, EU-critical, Trump-admiring populist against a centrist independent in a knife-edge vote that analysts have called most important in the country's post-communist history. George Simion, a former soccer ultra and ultranationalist agitator who sees his far-right AUR party as a 'natural ally' of the US Maga movement, comfortably won the 4 May first round with a score of 41%, double that of the Bucharest mayor, Nicuşor Dan. Recent polls have shown the gap between the two candidates closing, with one putting them neck and neck and another placing Dan – who has described the vote as a battle between 'a pro-western and an anti-western Romania' – ahead. 'This election isn't just about the president of Romania but about its entire direction,' said Siegfried Mureşan, a liberal Romanian MEP. Simion would 'weaken Europe's unity, undermine support for Ukraine, and benefit only Vladimir Putin,' he added. In Poland, 13 contenders are vying to be the country's next head of state in the first round of presidential elections, with the centrist mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, a senior member of prime minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition, the frontrunner. Polls predict that Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, a historian who is formally independent but has been endorsed by the former national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government, will advance to the second round, which is due on 1 June. A win for the centrist would boost Tusk's ability to push through his reformist agenda, which has been hampered by Polish presidents' power to veto legislation passed by parliament. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a PiS ally. Portugal, meanwhile, heads to the polls for its third snap general election in three years after the centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, triggered and lost a confidence vote in parliament over questions about his family's business activities. Montenegro's Democratic Alliance (AD) platform is forecast to finish first but fall short of a majority, and could struggle to form a government, especially if the Socialist party (PS), likely to finish second, keeps its pledge to oppose his legislative agenda. Montenegro has vowed not to work with the far-right Chega, whose leader, former TV football pundit André Ventura, was hospitalised on Friday after twice collapsing at rallies, but could be replaced as party leader with someone more Chega-compatible. Simion's win triggered the collapse of Romania's government of centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) and centre-right Liberals (PNL), and whoever wins will nominate the next prime minister and influence the formation of a new ruling coalition. Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment after newsletter promotion The vote is a rerun of last November's ballot, won by a far-right, Moscow-friendly firebrand, Călin Georgescu, who was barred from standing again after the vote was cancelled amid allegations of campaign finance violations and Russian meddling. Simion has promised to nominate Georgescu, who is under formal investigation on counts including misreporting campaign spending, illegal use of digital technology and promoting fascist groups, as prime minister if he becomes president. Romanian presidents have a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They can also dissolve parliament if MPs reject two prime ministerial nominations. Analysts have said that since neither PSD or PNL would want a snap election with Simion's AUR – the second biggest party in parliament – in the ascendant, a minority AUR-led government, backed perhaps by PSD, is a clear possibility if Simion wins. Simion opposes further aid to Ukraine and has sharply criticised the EU's leadership. While he insists he wants Romania to stay in the EU and Nato, he could ally with Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico as another disruptive force. 'Simion's election would mark a sea change in Romanian politics, creating significant risks to domestic stability, Bucharest-Brussels relations, and EU unity over Ukraine,' said Mujtaba Rahman of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. The prospect of a Simion win has spooked markets and investors, causing the Romanian leu to plunge and major foreign business chambers in Romania have warned of a 'rapid deterioration' in the business climate. Romania has the EU's highest budget deficit.
Japan Times
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
MAGA goes east: Romania's presidential frontrunner rides hard-right wave
A hard-right lawmaker who supports U.S. President Donald Trump could win Sunday's presidential election in Romania, while polls put two more MAGA-fans in second and third place in a Polish vote, amid a political shift in Central Europe that could widen rifts in the European Union. George Simion, a nationalist who campaigns to "Make Romania Great Again," opposes military aid to Ukraine and is critical of the EU's leadership, decisively won the first round of the ballot on May 4. He has been ahead in most polls ahead of a May 18 run-off vote against centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, though the most recent survey put them neck-and-neck. A Simion victory could destabilize the EU and NATO member and have repercussions also in the EU, especially when it comes to issues that require unanimity, diplomats and experts said. "Simion's election would mark a sea change in Romanian politics, creating significant risks to domestic stability, Bucharest-Brussels relations, and EU unity over Ukraine," said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at consultancy Eurasia Group. If Simion wins, Hungary's fiercely anti-immigrant leader Viktor Orban, a long-time Trump ally, and Slovakia's Robert Fico — who both oppose military aid for Ukraine — could gain a new ally in the European Council in decisions on aid for Ukraine, energy, sanctions against Russia or the EU's budget. Their camp could grow further in October if a parliamentary election in the Czech Republic brings back euroskeptic former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, whose ANO party leads polls with 30% to 35% support. 'Common narrative' During a televised debate last week, Simion gave Orban a nod, despite their differences over Romania's large ethnic Hungarian minority in Transylvania. "I respect FIDESZ president and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, many of his policies will be state policies in Romania too. Now is the time for a Europe of Christian nations," Simion said. He also endorsed Karol Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, who trails Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski in polls ahead of the first round of the presidential election in Poland on Sunday. On Tuesday, Simion went to Poland to attend Nawrocki's rally, telling his supporters Trump was a "symbol of freedom." Slawomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation party, also a Trump fan, is polling third. Supporters watch the leader of the radical right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), Simion, speak on a screen following the exit poll results during the Romanian presidential election in Bucharest on May 4. | REUTERS Bulcsu Hunyadi, a specialist in rightwing populism at Political Capital, a Budapest think tank, said the success of Trump and his MAGA movement had given momentum to nationalist politicians in the region. "When it comes to criticism of the EU, criticism of the liberal globalist elites ... that is a very common aspect of the narratives of these actors," he said. And U.S. conservatives have offered their support. The American Conservative Union announced in March that it would hold the 2025 spin-off of its CPAC conference in Poland. Only Orban has hosted CPAC in Europe before. The EU has grappled for years with Orban blocking key bits of legislation, while accusing him of undermining democratic values in Hungary — an allegation the veteran leader, who faces a tough election race in 2026, denies. Having a larger group of hard-right leaders would be more difficult for the centrist majority in the EU to navigate, several diplomats said, at a time when the 27-member bloc faces unprecedented challenges, with tough tariff talks with Trump and a growing perceived threat from Russia. One European official said there was a "constant threat in terms of policy making on foreign policy," although noting that eastern Europe's nationalists were not always a unified bloc. Immigration and cost of living While former communist countries in Central Europe had embraced joining the EU from 2004 onwards, the hopes their citizens once had of catching up fast with the wealthier West have faded in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic and then the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine have slowed the region's convergence. According to the European Central Bank's June 2024 report, "since 2019 the catching-up process has stalled, or even reversed." Many Central Europeans feel they have lost out financially and their cost-of-living concerns fueled sentiment against mainstream parties. "The most important factor has been growing economic inequalities," said Endre Borbath, a junior professor at the Ruprecht-Karls-Universität in Heidelberg, pointing out that in countries such as Romania the rapid development brought by EU funds had been concentrated in a few key regions. Borbath also said the 2015 migration crisis — when around 1 million people, many fleeing Syria's civil war, arrived in the EU — caught Eastern Europe's conservative societies unprepared, which was fertile ground for stoking anti-immigration sentiment. Florin, 47, a voter in Bucharest who declined to give his last name, said he would vote for Simion on Sunday and hoped he "closes the borders and restores Romania's economy if it is still possible." "For those of us who were there in 1989, who caught a revolution — I was 13 at the time — absolutely nothing has happened. Everything is for them," he said, referring to the political elite. "For us, the working class, nothing has been done."
