Latest news with #EconomicPolicyUncertainty
Yahoo
09-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Miller Value Deep Value Strategy's Views on Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC)
Miller Value Partners, an investment management company, released its 'Deep Value Strategy' second-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The first half of the year mirrored 2020, with tariff and Covid fears driving the VIX Index over 50 and the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reaching an all-time high. In March 2025, the Economic Uncertainty Index peaked at 725, over 50% higher than in 2020. By April 8th, equity markets hit bottom and began recovering as both the Economic Policy Uncertainty and VIX Index started to decline. In the quarter, the Deep Value strategy had a -0.95% drawdown compared to +3.02% return for the S&P 1500 Value Index and +2.52% return for the S&P 600 Value Index. Year-to-date, the strategy's net returns are -13.63% vs +2.81% and -7.65%, respectively, for the indexes. In addition, please check the fund's top five holdings to know its best picks in 2025. In its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, Miller Value Deep Value Select Strategy highlighted stocks such as Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC). Headquartered in Sylmar, California, Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) is a construction company. On August 7, 2025, Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) stock closed at $55.07 per share. One-month return of Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) was 12.43%, and its shares gained 189.69% of their value over the last 52 weeks. Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) has a market capitalization of $2.905 billion. Miller Value Deep Value Select Strategy stated the following regarding Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter: "Our second largest positive contributors was Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC), whose shares were up 83%. We initially purchased TPC in the Fall of 2022, near $7/share, a deep discount to tangible book value. The Covid outbreak caused a significant delay in larger civil contracts, weighing on the company's most profitable segment margins, causing a multi year earnings trough. Over the past two years, management has successfully rebuilt the company pipeline, enhanced the balance sheet through significant debt reduction and is on track to return the company to normalized profitability. With a portfolio holding return over 400%, TPC is currently trading over two times book value and approaching 10x normalized earnings. We recently exited the position and have recycled capital adding to holdings that have recently underperformed the portfolio and have greater long-term embedded return potential." An aerial view of a cityscape showing a newly constructed bridge connecting two districts. Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) at the end of the first quarter, which was 25 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. In another article, we covered Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC) and shared the list of best performing mid cap stocks so far in 2025. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
09-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Miller Deep Value Strategy Increased Its Holdings in Nabors Industries (NBR) in Q2
Miller Value Partners, an investment management company, released its 'Deep Value Strategy' second-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The first half of the year mirrored 2020, with tariff and Covid fears driving the VIX Index over 50 and the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reaching an all-time high. In March 2025, the Economic Uncertainty Index peaked at 725, over 50% higher than in 2020. By April 8th, equity markets hit bottom and began recovering as both the Economic Policy Uncertainty and VIX Index started to decline. In the quarter, the Deep Value strategy had a -0.95% drawdown compared to +3.02% return for the S&P 1500 Value Index and +2.52% return for the S&P 600 Value Index. Year-to-date, the strategy's net returns are -13.63% vs +2.81% and -7.65%, respectively, for the indexes. In addition, please check the fund's top five holdings to know its best picks in 2025. In its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, Miller Value Deep Value Select Strategy highlighted stocks such as Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR). Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) is a drilling and drilling-related services provider for offshore oil and natural gas wells. The one-month return of Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) was -2.23%, and its shares lost 59.24% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On August 7, 2025, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) stock closed at $33.36 per share, with a market capitalization of $486.245 million. Miller Value Deep Value Strategy stated the following regarding Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter: "Our two largest detractors during the quarter were JELD-WEN (JELD) and Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) and that were down 33% and 32% during the quarter, respectively. Both companies' share prices are at deep discounts to what we believe is their long-term fundamental value, and we increased position sizes in both holdings during the quarter. A drilling rig on a large oil field, capturing a crucial moment of the extraction process. Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 22 hedge fund portfolios held Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) at the end of the first quarter, which was 19 in the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2025, Nabors Industries Ltd.'s (NYSE:NBR) revenue from operations totaled $833 million, compared to $736 million in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. In another article, we covered Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) and shared the list of best beaten down stocks to buy. In its Q1 2025, investor letter Miller Value Deep Value Strategy shared its optimistic view of Nabors Industries Ltd.'s (NYSE:NBR) acquisition of Parker Drilling. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
09-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gannett (GCI) Showed Recovery from Q1 Lows
Miller Value Partners, an investment management company, released its 'Deep Value Strategy' second-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The first half of the year mirrored 2020, with tariff and Covid fears driving the VIX Index over 50 and the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reaching an all-time high. In March 2025, the Economic Uncertainty Index peaked at 725, over 50% higher than in 2020. By April 8th, equity markets hit bottom and began recovering as both the Economic Policy Uncertainty and VIX Index started to decline. In the quarter, the Deep Value strategy had a -0.95% drawdown compared to +3.02% return for the S&P 1500 Value Index and +2.52% return for the S&P 600 Value Index. Year-to-date, the strategy's net returns are -13.63% vs +2.81% and -7.65%, respectively, for the indexes. In addition, please check the fund's top five holdings to know its best picks in 2025. In its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, Miller Value Deep Value Strategy highlighted stocks such as Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI). Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) is a US-based media and marketing solutions company. The one-month return of Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) was 3.33%, and its shares lost 6.28% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On August 7, 2025, Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) stock closed at $4.03 per share, with a market capitalization of $590.866 million. Miller Value Deep Value Select Strategy stated the following regarding Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter: "During the quarter, our largest contributor was Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) up 24%, recovering a portion of its first quarter drawdown. Gannett remains significantly mispriced in our opinion at only .25x revenue and >50% normalized free cash flow yield. New York Times (NYT), which went through a similar digital transformation ten years ago, has a much higher valuation level, with a price-to-sales of 3x and Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) greater than 15x." An editor standing in a newsroom, overseeing the layout of a magazine cover. Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) at the end of the first quarter, which was 34 in the previous quarter. In the second quarter, Gannett Co., Inc.'s (NYSE:GCI) total revenues amounted to $584.9 million, representing a decline of 8.6%, or 6.4% on a same-store basis. While we acknowledge the potential of Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. In another article, we covered Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) and shared the list of best American penny stocks to buy. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Forbes
21-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Cutting Through The Noise: Trump's Chaos Slows Economy
Massive economic uncertainty went along with less spending on cars. Economic policy chaos reigns high. This massive jump in uncertainty over tariffs, federal layoffs, the cuts to already appropriated federal funds, potentially soaring deficits and the future path of interest rates, among others, is already taking a toll on the economy. Consumers and businesses are changing their spending habits, contributing to a noticeable slowdown in the economy. It all starts with economic policy uncertainty, created by President Donald Trump and his administration. Most of this policy uncertainty pertains to tariffs. Consumers and businesses are worried about rising inflation, fewer jobs and less economic growth. Consumers and businesses can theoretically respond in different ways, but all of their reactions will ultimately result in less economic activity. It is no surprise that economic policy uncertainty has dominated people's minds. The Economic Policy Uncertainty index, created by researchers at the University of Chicago, Northwestern University and Stanford University, reached its highest level on record, dating back to 1985, in April 2025. Uncertainty has grown by 377.1 percent from its recent low point in October 2024 and stood 29.7 percent above its most recent record from May 2020 amid an ongoing once-in-a-century pandemic. Chaotic economic policymaking has been worse in terms of economic uncertainty than a global public health disaster. Let's start with consumers to understand the toll that uncertainty could take. Households could spend less to build up savings for future drops in incomes such as cuts in hours, fewer bonus payments, and even layoffs. Alternatively, households could use their current incomes and savings to buy things that could become more expensive in the future. Even if consumers spend more now out of fear of higher inflation, they will still spend less in the future. The longer term result stays the same: households will spend less money. The most recent data show that households already pulled back in their spending. That is, the first response – less spending and more saving – dominated the second – more spending out of fear of inflation. Household spending on cars and car parts dropped by 11.1% in the first quarter of 2025, the largest decline since the third quarter of 2021, the heyday of supply chain bottlenecks. Households also lowered their spending at restaurants and instead spent more on food at home during that time. On the other hand, some consumers spent more, possibly because out of fear of more inflation. For example, households increased their spending on recreational vehicles by 7.0% in the first three months of this year. In the end, though, larger spending bumps did not halt the slowdown in consumer spending. Total consumption spending grew only by 1.8% in the first quarter, down from 4.0% at the end of 2024. Businesses could theoretically also initially react to the onslaught of uncertainty in contradictory ways. They could build up inventories, which would boost economic growth, and they could hold off on new, large, longer-term investments such as factories. In the end, though, even a build up of inventories could portend future economic slowdown since businesses spend money in the near term to avoid higher costs (and more spending) in the future. The most recent data on business spending indicates that businesses seem indeed worried about what the future, thanks to tariffs, will bring. They rapidly built up inventories in the first quarter of 2025. Those investments added 2.3 percentage points to economic growth. Put differently, the economy would have shrunk by 2.6% without the added increases in inventory spending. At the same time, though, business spending on structures such a factories was more or less flat, with investments on manufacturing plants falling by 4.3%. Admittedly, that drop came from rather high levels, but the manufacturing building boom may have come to an end amid the threats of global tariffs. The auto industry is one area where consumers and businesses pulling back seem to come together. Spending on new cars dropped by 6.9% in the first quarter and the aggregate number of hours that workers worked in auto manufacturing dropped by 1.5% in April 2025 alone and was 4.5% percent lower than a year earlier. Car companies appear to have cut back on the number of people they employ and the number of hours that they need people to work for. Less consumer spending seems to have already reduced working hours in car manufacturing. In the end, the massive uncertainty may be taking a toll on people's livelihoods before the tariffs, federal layoffs and spending cuts are fully in effect. Heightened economic policy uncertainty undoubtedly hurts the economy. The uncertainty of what may happen alone is enough to slow economic activity. Things do not actually have to happen for consumers and businesses to worry about the future and pull back on their spending, slowing economic activity. When the bad things that people feared will eventually happen, things will likely get worse. Instability and uncertainty are sometimes unavoidable, as in the case of a pandemic, but this time around, all of the uncertainty is deliberate and all of the economic pain is self-inflicted.
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy
President Donald Trump's tariff agenda has thrown the financial world for a loop for much of the past month. The on-again, off-again trade escalation with other nations — most notably China — has upended markets with investors fleeing U.S. stocks in search of more stable ground. And as experts and business leaders say the lack of clarity around the tariffs is every bit a challenge as the levies themselves, data shows economic uncertainty is the highest it has been in years. Economists have a way of quantifying economic chaos, as multiple measures show just how uncertain the market and the economy in general are. One measure, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index from researchers at Stanford and Northwestern universities, uses an analysis of news reports, tax code data and economic forecast disagreement. According to the EPU index, uncertainty spiked in March to levels last seen during the Covid pandemic. Kevin L. Kliesen, an economist at the St. Louis Federal Reserve, noted that the change in uncertainty from last spring to this spring is the sharpest such increase in almost 40 years. 'It's a historically unprecedented increase,' Kliesen said. The instability makes it harder for companies and consumers alike to make decisions, and it can be a scene-setter for recessions. 'Firms will delay investment in response to higher uncertainty,' Kliesen said. 'Consumers facing higher uncertainty about job prospects, they might cut back on spending.' Menzie Chinn, a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin, said, 'People are maximally confused.' To show how uncertainty plays out, Chinn gave an example of potential homebuyers: Lowering interest rates might entice them, but worries about a big drop in home prices over the next year — the kind that might arise from a recession — might scare them away. 'It's better news, but washed out by this bad uncertainty,' Chinn said. The uncertainty extends into the bond market: Government bonds are being sold more than they're being bought — even as stocks sour, flouting historical trends. Traditionally seen as a safe harbor, bonds tend to be purchased by investors when markets are on edge. That's not the case today, with 10-year Treasury yields surging above 4.5%. As overall stability is eroding, any news — even if it's inaccurate or positive — has the potential to send things haywire. U.S. stocks soared briefly on April 7 when an errant headline on X said Trump was considering a pause, only to sink when the White House said the claim was false. And while the market took off after Trump dialed down most tariffs Thursday, stocks faltered the next day. Prominent business leaders have warned about the uncertainty in recent weeks, with both JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink saying the lack of clarity is pushing the economy closer to recession. 'We have the strongest economy in the world. It would be good not to add to the uncertainty out there,' Dimon said Wednesday on Fox Business, adding that a recession is now a 'likely outcome.' This article was originally published on
