What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy
President Donald Trump's tariff agenda has thrown the financial world for a loop for much of the past month. The on-again, off-again trade escalation with other nations — most notably China — has upended markets with investors fleeing U.S. stocks in search of more stable ground. And as experts and business leaders say the lack of clarity around the tariffs is every bit a challenge as the levies themselves, data shows economic uncertainty is the highest it has been in years.
Economists have a way of quantifying economic chaos, as multiple measures show just how uncertain the market and the economy in general are. One measure, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index from researchers at Stanford and Northwestern universities, uses an analysis of news reports, tax code data and economic forecast disagreement.
According to the EPU index, uncertainty spiked in March to levels last seen during the Covid pandemic.
Kevin L. Kliesen, an economist at the St. Louis Federal Reserve, noted that the change in uncertainty from last spring to this spring is the sharpest such increase in almost 40 years.
'It's a historically unprecedented increase,' Kliesen said.
The instability makes it harder for companies and consumers alike to make decisions, and it can be a scene-setter for recessions. 'Firms will delay investment in response to higher uncertainty,' Kliesen said. 'Consumers facing higher uncertainty about job prospects, they might cut back on spending.'
Menzie Chinn, a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin, said, 'People are maximally confused.'
To show how uncertainty plays out, Chinn gave an example of potential homebuyers: Lowering interest rates might entice them, but worries about a big drop in home prices over the next year — the kind that might arise from a recession — might scare them away.
'It's better news, but washed out by this bad uncertainty,' Chinn said.
The uncertainty extends into the bond market: Government bonds are being sold more than they're being bought — even as stocks sour, flouting historical trends.
Traditionally seen as a safe harbor, bonds tend to be purchased by investors when markets are on edge. That's not the case today, with 10-year Treasury yields surging above 4.5%.
As overall stability is eroding, any news — even if it's inaccurate or positive — has the potential to send things haywire. U.S. stocks soared briefly on April 7 when an errant headline on X said Trump was considering a pause, only to sink when the White House said the claim was false. And while the market took off after Trump dialed down most tariffs Thursday, stocks faltered the next day.
Prominent business leaders have warned about the uncertainty in recent weeks, with both JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink saying the lack of clarity is pushing the economy closer to recession.
'We have the strongest economy in the world. It would be good not to add to the uncertainty out there,' Dimon said Wednesday on Fox Business, adding that a recession is now a 'likely outcome.'
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
'Catastrophic:' sting urged over Star's myriad breaches
The Star has been named as a worse offender than Crown in breaking anti-money laundering compliance laws by letting high-risk gamblers funnel billions through its casinos. As financial watchdog AUSTRAC seeks $400 million in penalties against The Star in the Federal Court, the company has cried poor saying that an amount this large would push it into administration. Lawyers for the government agency pushed for a hefty fine on Tuesday, saying the casino operator and others in the industry should be deterred from similarly lax controls on potentially dirty money. "The sting must be there in the penalty, it must maintain its deterrent effect," barrister Joanne Shepard said, as a hearing continued. The Star has pointed to recent financial struggles, arguing it was only able to pay a fine of $100 million. In contrast, Crown agreed to pay a $450 million fine in May 2024 for similar money-laundering breaches. This amount was a "benchmark" which could be used to determine how much The Star could pay, AUSTRAC barrister Simon White SC argued. "The conduct in this case is measurably worse than that in Crown," he said. The Star's breaches were deliberate, he argued, in contrast to Crown. Management at The Star continued to engage with high-risk gamblers without proper controls and risk assessments in place despite clear findings revealed in a public inquiry into Crown, Mr White said. About $138 billion in cash turnover had come in solely through junkets with an additional $20 billion sourced from high-risk customers, Mr White said. "$138 billion just from junkets coming through the casino environment is potentially catastrophic in so many ways Your Honour," he told Justice Cameron Moore. The business had benefited from the breaches bringing in almost $1.3 billion in revenue through junkets at its Sydney and Queensland casinos and at least $1.33 billion more through high-risk gamblers. Additionally, very significant volumes of high-risk cash were pushed through its slot machines, the court was told. While a projected $343 million was expected to be paid to make The Star's anti-money laundering systems compliant, this should have been an expense made years ago, Mr White said. And without the proper measures in place, the casino had an unfair competitive advantage over its rivals, he noted. Earlier on Tuesday, Ms Shepard argued against The Star's claims of financial distress. She pointed out that a "white knight" had recently emerged with US gaming giant Bally's Corporation promising to inject $300 million into the firm. The casino could raise further capital, look into debt refinancing or dip into almost $60 million set aside from the sale of its Treasury Brisbane business, she told Justice Moore. In the 2017, 2018 and 2019 financial years, The Star had brought in $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion in annual revenue, Ms Shepard said. In the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the firm's revenue never dipped below $1.5 billion, she added. An independent expert report released in May valued The Star between $1.17 billion and $1.38 billion with liabilities of about $490 million, the court was told. The hearing continues. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
The Shale Macro and Evolving Production Dynamics
The upstream shale oil and gas sector has been written off by investors thanks to a 30% decline in oil prices since the first of the year. From near $80 in mid-January, tariff-led demand fears have overcome supply fears, and the price of WTI-the benchmark crude for most U.S. companies, to the upper $ 50s. Even a rebound into the low $60s has not yet assuaged these concerns, leaving them worried about their ability to generate cash for debt service and shareholder returns. That's the fear. What is the reality? We now have a full quarter in the bank for these companies at subdued oil prices, and the message is becoming pretty clear. The upstream sector, while somewhat constrained in capital expenditure allocation—many companies are slowing their growth plans —is doing fine and generating more than adequate free cash to cover operational expenses, debt, and shareholder returns. This means there is an opportunity for investors to make long-term bets in these companies at fire-sale prices. The MacroMicro chart shown below supports this notion. Multiple compression has reduced the Energy sector's S&P weighting from approximately 13% in 2011 to just 3% today. We think the current all-time high reached in April of 13,400 mm BOPD suggests this shrinkage in weighting is not reflective of the true value these companies bring to our economy. That being the case, we will present a snapshot of the Q-1 metrics of some of our favorite shale drillers for investment at present levels. The shale macro We are about 15 years into a complete upheaval in global oil production dynamics, as noted in the EIA graphic below. You can see that, commencing in 2012, the upward slope that had begun in 2008 with early fracking operations took a sharp increase that didn't abate until the latter part of 2023, at around 13,000 mm BOPD. Initially driven by a rapid increase in the rig count, oil shocks in 2014 and then in 2020, led to drillers' re-evaluation of the wisdom of growth at any cost. The COVID-induced oil crash of 2020 led to a profound shift in how managers in these companies were compensated. Incentives that had previously rewarded double-digit annual growth in production and attainment of ESG goals were shifted to value creation for shareholders. Now, after learning to drill longer laterals, increase the number of frac stages, pump higher sand concentrations, and use artificial intelligence to improve efficiency, the industry has been able to produce more and more oil and gas with fewer rigs and frac spreads. Since 2022, the numbers of each have declined by about 30-35% respectively. Some of this reduction is also due to the recent M&A cycle, which has reduced the E&P count in an effort to consolidate premium drilling locations in shale plays. Money not spent on services to grow production is money that goes directly to the driller's bottom line and enables them to run profitable businesses at lower oil and gas prices. In short, U.S. shale operators have wrought a miracle, having survived two extinction-level events in the last decade, the oil crashes of 2014 and 2020. What hasn't changed is the dour view of the investing community toward the E&P sector. We believe that will change soon on its own as investors seek capital returns. If we were to see an increase in oil prices, a trickle would become a torrent, leading to higher EV/EBITDA multiples. I promised you a couple of examples of undervalued companies, so let's have a look. Companies performing at a high level APA Corp, (NYSE:APA) a Permian-focused driller with international operations in Egypt, and Suriname. After a 1-year stock price implosion from $32 to $14 at its low, APA Corp trades at an EV/EBITDA valuation of 2.19X. This is about an 80% reduction from its three-year average of 3.9X. APA nearly balanced production of 166 mm BOE with reserves additions of 162 mm BOE in 2024. With 2P reserves of 969 mm bbls APA holds the equivalent of 2.6 BOE per diluted share. This doesn't include any contributions from their JV with Total Energies, (NYSE:TTE) from the GranMorgu project, offshore Suriname and due to begin producing 220K BOEPD in 2028. APA has a strong balance sheet with no significant maturities before 2035. APA generated EBITDAX of $1.5 bn, $1.1 bn in operating cash flow in Q-1, which covered capex of $790 mm, dividend of $92 mm and share buybacks of $98 mm. APA is cutting capex in the Permian by $150 mm in 2025, but expects to maintain output through frac cycle time improvements. At current prices, APA's dividend yield is 5.4%, and a free cash yield of 21%. Let's look at Chord Energy, (NYSE:CHRD) now. Chord is the biggest shale driller in the Bakken. Q-1, revenues of $1,103 mm were sequentially lower than Q-4, 2024, but well above revenues from Q-1, 2024. Operating cash flow of $656.9MM was up from $566 mm in Q-4, and substantially higher than Q-1, 2024 at $404 mm. Adjusted EBITDA of $695.5MM followed a similar trajectory, exceeding Q-4's $640.1 mm, and Q-1, 2024 at $464.8 mm, Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $290.5MM and Adjusted Net Income was $240.9MM ($4.04/diluted share). After a 55% decline in its share price this year, Chord trades at a very modest 2.6X EV/EBITDA, and $38K per flowing barrel. With 882 mm BOE of proved reserves, CHRD trades at ~15 BO per share. Chord added 63 mm BOE organically and 313 mm BOE as a result of its merger with Enerplus Corporation in 2024. Chord is focused on cost reduction through the implementation of 4-mile laterals and increased shareholder returns. Chord's base dividend is a relatively eye-watering $6.66 with a yield of 7.40%, and has repurchased 2 mm shares during the quarter. This is funded by free cash generation that amounts to a veritable rainstorm offering a free cash yield of 26% on a NTM basis. Your takeaway As we have discussed, multiple compressions have created the impression in investors that upstream E&P companies are marginal businesses with balance sheet problems. Our research suggests that this is far from true, and investors seeking capital appreciation and substantial shareholder returns might carefully consider whether investing in this sector aligns with their portfolio objectives. It is difficult to say when the fundamentals for oil will improve. The key takeaway is that many companies operating in this sector are well-managed and have a focus on enhancing value creation for their shareholders. I began this piece by highlighting the compression in the weighting of the energy sector within the S&P Index. If it were to return to just the 4-5% weighting of the late 2010s, it would mean a substantial uplift for these equities. Until then, investors will have to be satisfied with above-average dividends and shareholder returns. By David Messler for More Top Reads From this article on
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Hoping to be saved, ‘a queer bar in Boise' turns to crowdfunding
A downtown Boise bar that opened 'with a bang' has turned to crowdfunding six years later. Water Bear Bar, 350 N. 9th St., recently launched a $100,000 fundraising goal on Indiegogo. 'Save Water Bear Bar,' it declares. 'A queer bar in Boise, Idaho.' 'Water Bear Bar is a queer woman-owned cocktail bar where everyone is not only welcome but celebrated,' the campaign's message begins. 'In a state where being different can still be dangerous, Water Bear stands proudly as a sanctuary for the marginalized — a cozy, defiant gem rooted in world-class hospitality and unshakable community values. But we need your help to keep the party going.' A flexible goal of $100,000 has been set, meaning Water Bear Bar will receive all funds even if the goal isn't reached. Water Bear Bar debuted in summer of 2019 'with a bang,' it says on Indiegogo. 'The cocktail lounge was packed every night, the best party in town had arrived.' But the COVID-19 pandemic soon caused a year-plus shutdown. Water Bear has faced a series of hurdles since reopening. Those have ranged from 'great mismanagement that has since been removed and remedied,' it says on Indiegogo, to rising costs and an economic environment in which 'many patrons are facing uncertainty amidst the current administration, and records show they are spending less.' So far, $4,442 of the $100,000 goal has been generated from 67 backers. There are 54 days remaining in the campaign. 'Whether you've walked through our doors before or just believe in the power of radical hospitality, this is your chance to build something with us,' Water Bear explains. 'A $10 donation? Beautiful. Sharing this with friends? Powerful. A larger contribution? Transformative.'
