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AllAfrica
02-06-2025
- Politics
- AllAfrica
MAGA's overreaching anti-economists get it all wrong
Oren Cass, the founder of the think tank American Compass, is probably the leading intellectual voice of MAGA economics. In a recent blog post, he discusses the question of whether economic forces are like gravity. He writes: [Y]es, the physical world is governed by the laws of gravity. But it is not governed only by the laws of gravity. Indeed, anyone who thought he could reliably predict the motion of bodies with knowledge only of gravity would be something of a moron. Oh, really? Would such a man be a moron? Then please explain to me how Edmond Halley, using only his knowledge of gravity, and having no understanding of any of the other forces of nature, was able to predict a solar eclipse in 1715 to an accuracy of four minutes: In 1715…a total solar eclipse was visible across a broad band of England. It was the first to be predicted on the basis of the Newtonian theory of universal gravitation, its path mapped clearly and advertised widely in advance. Visible in locations such as London and Cambridge, both astronomical experts and the public were able to see the phenomena and be impressed by the predictive power of the new astronomy… Wikipedia will tell you that this is known as Halley's Eclipse, after Edmond Halley, who produced accurate predictions of its timing and an easily-read map of the eclipse's path. Halley did not live to see the confirmation of his predictions of a returning comet – a 1759 triumph for the Newtonian system – but he was able to enjoy his 1715 calculations, which were within 4 minutes[.] Cass — who holds a Bachelor's in political economy from Williams College and a law degree from Harvard, but has no apparent training in physics — confidently assures us that anyone who attempted what Edmond Halley did would be 'something of a moron.' This is the kind of insult that says less about the target than about the person doing the insulting. Before you make confident assertions about a field of study, you owe it to your readers to attempt to understand that field at least a little bit. A botched physics analogy is harmless enough. But Cass' main argument isn't about gravity at all — it's about economics. And it's here where his willingness to make grand pronouncements about whole fields of study gets him into real trouble. Cass' post is a response to a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Matthew Hennessey. Hennessey, in turn, is responding to J.D. Vance's declaration that markets are a 'tool.' Hennessey argues that markets are more like a force of nature than a tool.1 Cass is trying to rebut Hennessey, criticizing market fundamentalism while also taking a swipe at the entire discipline of economics. Now, I am no fan of market fundamentalism, and I spent my early years as a blogger bashing the field of (macro)economics — often with even more scorn than Oren Cass employs in this post. But I like to think that when I did this, I generally stuck to making specific criticisms about actual economic models and methods. A lot of econ critics don't do this. Back when I was at Bloomberg, I used to have fun poking at the grandiose broadsides against economics that periodically appear in British publications like The Guardian or The Telegraph. These critiques tend to repeat the same old nostrums over and over — economics isn't a science, it doesn't do controlled experiments, its assumptions are bad, its theories don't work, people can't be predicted like particles, etc. etc. There are grains of truth to these boilerplate critiques, but the people who write them generally haven't bothered to pay much attention to what modern economists actually do . Here's what I wrote in a Bloomberg post back in 2017: [E]conomists have developed some theories that really work. A good scientific theory makes testable predictions that apply to situations other than those that motivated the creation of the theory. Slowly, econ is building up a repertoire of these gems. One of them is auction theory, which predicts how buyers will bid for things like online ads or spectrum rights — Google's profits are powered by econ theory as much as by search algorithms. Another example is matching theory, which has made it a lot easier to get an organ transplant. A third is random-utility discrete choice theory, which is used in everything from marketing to transportation planning to disaster preparedness. Nor are econ's successful theories limited to microeconomics. Gravity models of trade, though fairly simple in nature, have proven very successful at predicting the flow of international trade. These and other successful economics theories can be used confidently in a wide-variety of real-world situations, by policy makers, engineers and businesses. They prove that anyone who claims that econ theories will never be reliable, because they deal with human beings instead of atoms, is simply incorrect. Yes, studying mass human behavior is different than studying the motions of the planets, in a number of important ways. But the intellectuals who loftily declare that economics 'isn't a science' don't seem like they've bothered to think very hard about what those differences are , or when and why they matter. For example, what do the people who write that 'economics isn't a science' think about natural experiments — the empirical technique that has taken over much of econ research in the last three decades? Do they think that these are always less informative than lab experiments in the natural sciences? And if so, why? What do they think are the strengths and weaknesses of natural experiments relative to lab experiments, and how much can they help us test theories and derive general principles about how economies work? I suspect that very few of the econ critics have thought seriously about these questions, and that far too few have even heard of natural experiments. Certainly, if they have, they must have some good reason for never mentioning them. And certainly they must have good reasons for never talking about auction theory, matching theory, discrete choice models, gravity models, or any of the other economics theories that prove themselves in the real world day in and day out. Right? But the screeds in The Guardian or The Telegraph are downright erudite compared to what Oren Cass serves up in his own criticism of econ. Here's what he writes: Economics is nothing like physics. Its principles are not generated from repeatable experiments, nor do they hold consistently across space and time. Trusting otherwise is a quite literal example of the blind faith and fundamentalism at issue. That's it. That's literally Cass' entire criticism of the field of economics in this post. He spends the rest of the post pulling quotes from conservative political thinkers — G.K. Chesterton, Robert Nisbet, Yuval Levin, Roger Scruton, etc. — who urge us to value things like community, tradition, etc., or who assert that markets can't work without a robust social fabric. Those are interesting things to think about, to be sure, but they don't bear on the question of what, exactly, Cass thinks is so inadequate about economics. Cass does not name or criticize any specific economic theories in this post. He cites zero papers and names zero researchers. I looked through a bunch of his other posts about economics, and I almost never found him naming or criticizing any specific theories in those posts, either. In one post, I did find him criticizing the theory of comparative advantage, and he did make one useful, substantive point about it — that comparative advantage can't explain trade deficits and surpluses. He's right about that. That's by far the most substantive, knowledgeable criticism of economics that I could find on his blog. If Cass is aware of any economic models other than comparative advantage and the basic Econ 101 supply-and-demand model, he plays his cards close to his chest. He doesn't mention gravity models of trade, which some economists use to try to predict the effects of tariffs (with some success). Nor does he mention Paul Krugman's New Trade Theory, which implies that countries can sometimes benefit from targeted tariffs against other countries' national champions (but which wouldn't recommend the kind of broad, sweeping tariffs Trump has tried to implement). Neither of those theories is outside the mainstream; both were invented by economists who went on to win the Nobel. Why doesn't Oren Cass mention them, or grapple with their implications, or use their existence to inform his criticisms of the field of economics? My guess — and this is only a guess — is that Cass is completely unaware that these theories exist, that he has no interest in discovering whether such theories exist, that if he did discover them he would have no idea how to evaluate them, and that even if he did know how to evaluate them he would have no interest in doing so. A sophisticated understanding of what mainstream economics actually says and does is not useful to Oren Cass' project, which is to denounce intellectual rivals within the conservative movement. If you want to actually figure out how trade works and what tariffs do, it would help to look at the research literature. If you didn't get the training needed to understand that literature, it would help to ask some people who did get that training, or at least read a little Wikipedia and ask ChatGPT a few questions.2 That won't give you all the answers — the world's best economists don't even have all the answers — but it would leave you a lot more knowledgeable than you started out, and it would give you a much better idea of where economists are on solid ground and where there are gaps in their understanding. On the other hand, if all you want is to dunk on Wall Street Journal writers, perhaps all you need is some hand-waving rhetoric about 'market fundamentalism' and a vague half-knowledge of one simple trade theory developed 200 years ago. The real problem with these econ critics — both the lefty writers in The Guardian and the new crop of MAGA defenders — is that their project is fundamentally political. The lefty writers think that if everyone accepts that econ isn't a science, and that the econ Nobel isn't a real Nobel, and people aren't like particles, and so on and so forth, then some sort of lefty ideology — Marxism, or degrowth, or whatever — will flow in to fill the hole left when economics vanishes. The MAGA writers think that it will be Trump's economic ideas that fill that void instead. But Matthew Hennessey, the Wall Street Journal writer, got one big thing right: Simply replacing academic theories with your own ideology can win you power, but there are important things it can't do. It can't change the nature of what tariffs actually do to the economy. Even if you and your friends and your political allies all shout very loudly that tariffs will restore American manufacturing, and act very scornful toward nerdy academics who tell you it doesn't work like that, the economic headwinds that tariffs actually create for American manufacturers won't change one iota. However limited mainstream academic economics is as a tool for understanding the consequences of your policies, ideology is even worse. NOTES: 1 Who's right, Vance or Hennesey? Both are right. Market forces are , quite literally, forces of nature. And markets themselves are, quite literally, a tool. Tools work by harnessing forces of nature. A pendulum clock works by harnessing the force of gravity. A market works by harnessing the forces that drive people to buy and sell things. Vance is right that markets should be shaped to serve our desired ends, rather than being an end in and of themselves. Hennesey is right that market forces can't be denied, ignored, or wished away. 2 Just to see how AI is doing, I asked ChatGPT o3 about the papers on gravity models. Its characterization of the papers' results was oversimplified and omitted crucial nuance about the ex ante predictive accuracy of Fejgelbaum et al. (2020). But overall, its explanations weren't too bad! This article was first published on Noah Smith's Noahpinion Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion subscriber here.
Time of India
31-05-2025
- Science
- Time of India
Strawberry Moon to Butterfly stars: 9 astronomical events you shouldn't miss out on in June 2025
The world of astronomy is one of the most enigmatic yet intriguing ones around. From stars forming unimaginable patterns to the meteors lighting the sky, there are a multitude of events that we humans await to experience in all their glory because space and its citizens are a thing of wonder to us. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Every month, some stunning visuals grace the skies and in June, these are the 9 astronomical events that you should definitely not miss out on. June 1: Catch a sight of Venus Image credits: X/@MAstronomers On June 1st, Venus will reach its farthest distance west of the sun from the point of view of the Earth and this point is known as the greatest western elongation. This is the perfect time to get a glimpse at the planet away from sunlight before dawn when it rises in the eastern sky in the Northern Hemisphere and northeastern sky in the Southern Hemisphere. June 2: The Great Hercules Cluster Image credits: X/@BigKahunaRon Globular clusters are densely packed clusters of hundreds of thousands of stars held together by gravity. On June 2nd, The Great Hercules Cluster or Messier 13 will reach its highest point in the night sky thus being perfect for viewing with the help of binoculars. Discovered in 1714 by English astronomer Edmond Halley, the one after whom Halley's comet has been named, this cluster has more than 100,000 stars in a spheroidal shape. June 7: Arietid meteor shower Image credits: X/@Tex369X Unlike other meteor showers that mostly happen at night, the Arietid meteor shower happens during daytime. This means most meteors are nearly impossible to see but if you get up in the pre-dawn hours on June 7, you might be able to see coloured dots in the sky. June 11: Strawberry moon Image credits: X/@dafaqzoey Seems impossible right? But yes, June's full moon, known as the "strawberry moon" will be visible on June 11. While the moon will not have the red colour, its name is derived from the Indigenous traditions in North America that link full moons to harvesting and hunting traditions. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Additionally, June is known for the ripening of wild strawberries too. June 16: Butterfly cluster Image credits: X/@maiz_julio The star Regulus which is known for its colourful twinkling will have a close encounter with Mars on June 16 just 90 minutes before sunset. Later around midnight, a globular cluster in the shape of a butterfly will be visible with the help of binoculars. June 22: Nebula Image credits: X/@maiz_julio In June, you can also catch a sight of the Lagoon Nebula or Messier 8 which is a swirling cloud of interstellar gas where stars are born. It will reach its peak in the sky on June 22 and while people in the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere can see with the naked eye, others can make use of binoculars or telescopes. June 25: Stargaze Image credits: X/@uhd2020 On June 25, there's a new moon lunar cycle which means the sky will be dark enough for stargazing with your loved one. This is the perfect time to aim for the bigger beauties like the Milky Way. June 27: Bootid meteor shower Image credits: X/@wqed In case morning meteor showers are not your thing and the beauty of the night sky enchants you like no other, wait for the Bootid meteor shower which is known for its display of hundreds of shooting stars. June 30: Moon meets Mars Image credits: X/@StarWalk On June 30th, the waxing crescent moon and Mars will pass within 1°16' of each other. The distance between them is just that of a pinky finger and thus you'll be able to see them together with a pair of binoculars. Also, watch out for the "earthshine" phenomenon where light reflected from Earth makes the unlit part of the moon glow faintly just after sunset or right before sunshine.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Catch a glimpse of the ‘strawberry moon' and other night sky events this June
Whether you're waking up early to spot Venus in the pre-dawn sky, staying up late to peep the Lagoon Nebula, or spending the whole night on the hunt for meteors, June's night sky has something for every stargazer. Here's what to keep an eye out for when you look up this month. (9 must-see night sky events to look forward to in 2025.) On June 1, Venus will reach its farthest distance west of the sun from the perspective of Earth—a point known as greatest western elongation. This is a particularly good time to get a glimpse at Earth's neighboring planet, as it won't be drowned out by sunlight. In some time zones, the exact timing of this event occurs on May 31, while in others, it's on June 1. But the best time to view Venus is just before dawn, when it rises in the eastern sky in the Northern Hemisphere, or the northeastern sky if you're in the Southern Hemisphere. Missed seeing the "well-placed" globular clusters in May? The Great Hercules Cluster, or Messier 13, reaches its highest point in the night sky on June 2, putting it in a prime viewing position. Discovered in 1714 by English astronomer Edmond Halley, for whom the iconic Halley's Comet is named, the Great Hercules Cluster is a collection of more than 100,000 stars densely packed into a glittering, spheroidic shape. While it can be hard to discern with the naked eye, it's easily visible through binoculars. As its name implies, the prolific daytime Arietid meteor shower doesn't peak at night, but during the day. That, of course, makes most of the meteors nearly impossible to see. But there's still a chance of spotting shooting stars in the predawn hours on June 7, just before the estimated peak during the daylight hours. And if you want to "see" the daytime activity, visit the NASA Meteor Shower Portal and look for colored dots—those indicate meteors associated with the active meteor shower. This month's full moon, known as the "Strawberry Moon," won't take on the red hue of its namesake fruit, but it is lovely nonetheless. The nickname, popularized by the Farmers' Almanac, is derived from Indigenous traditions in North America that link full moons to annual harvesting and hunting events. In June, that's the ripening of wild strawberries. (Learn about the lunar cycle and the origins of each month's full moon name.) Old European nicknames for the June full moon include the Mead or Honey Moon. According to NASA, this might be tied to the honey harvesting that happens during this month—and it could be the inspiration for the modern honeymoon, as ancient traditions called for June weddings. Mars and the bright star Regulus—known for its colorful twinkling—will have a close encounter on June 16, with peak viewing occurring around 90 minutes after sunset. Regulus is a four-star system, as opposed to a single star, but only three of those four individual stars will be visible during this event through the eye of a telescope. Then, around midnight, the Butterfly Cluster will be "well-placed" in the night sky, reaching its highest point above the horizon. To see this butterfly-shaped open cluster of stars, grab a pair of binoculars. Star clusters aren't the only "well-placed" celestial objects this month. The Lagoon Nebula, or Messier 8, is a swirling cloud of interstellar gas where stars are born, located some 5,200 light years away. It reaches its highest point in the night sky around midnight on June 22. From mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the Lagoon Nebula can sometimes be seen with the naked eye under ideal viewing conditions. Otherwise, binoculars or a telescope is the best way to spot them. On this night, there's a new moon lunar cycle, which means the sky will be plenty dark for stargazing. While brighter celestial objects like planets and stars are typically visible through the moon's light pollution, dimmer ones like distant galaxies and nebulae will be easier to see during the new moon, particularly through a telescope. (These are the best stargazing sites in North America.) If you're a photographer, this is the perfect time to try your hand at astrophotography. In the Northern Hemisphere, the Milky Way's galactic core rises high in the night sky throughout the summer, making it a prime focal point. The Bootids are a notoriously variable meteor shower, producing astonishing displays of hundreds of shooting stars some years, and just a few other years. If you're willing to try your luck, the meteor shower is expected to peak on June 27. And luck is already on your side—the moon will be barely illuminated as a waxing crescent, so it won't impede your view of fainter shooting stars. To close out the month, the waxing crescent moon and Mars will put on a little show. Our celestial neighbors will pass within 1°16' of each other; if you hold your arm out fully toward the moon and stick your pinky finger up, your finger's width is about the distance between the pair, so you'll be able to see them simultaneously through binoculars. Keep an eye out for the "earthshine" phenomenon, where light reflected from Earth makes the unlit part of the crescent moon glow faintly. This most commonly happens just after sunset or right before sunrise.
National Geographic
28-05-2025
- Science
- National Geographic
9 celestial events this June's, from a strawberry moon to interstellar clouds
The Milky Way and its core region in constellations Sagittarius and Scorpius, as seen from Dinosaur Provincial Park in Alberta, Canada. Composite Photograph by Alan Dyer, VW Pics/Science Photo Library Whether you're waking up early to spot Venus in the pre-dawn sky, staying up late to peep the Lagoon Nebula, or spending the whole night on the hunt for meteors, June's night sky has something for every stargazer. Here's what to keep an eye out for when you look up this month. (9 must-see night sky events to look forward to in 2025.) Venus at greatest western elongation—June 1 On June 1, Venus will reach its farthest distance west of the sun from the perspective of Earth—a point known as greatest western elongation. This is a particularly good time to get a glimpse at Earth's neighboring planet, as it won't be drowned out by sunlight. In some time zones, the exact timing of this event occurs on May 31, while in others, it's on June 1. But the best time to view Venus is just before dawn, when it rises in the eastern sky in the Northern Hemisphere, or the northeastern sky if you're in the Southern Hemisphere. A "well-placed" globular cluster—June 2 Missed seeing the "well-placed" globular clusters in May? The Great Hercules Cluster, or Messier 13, reaches its highest point in the night sky on June 2, putting it in a prime viewing position. Discovered in 1714 by English astronomer Edmond Halley, for whom the iconic Halley's Comet is named, the Great Hercules Cluster is a collection of more than 100,000 stars densely packed into a glittering, spheroidic shape. While it can be hard to discern with the naked eye, it's easily visible through binoculars. Daytime Arietids meteor shower peak—June 7 As its name implies, the prolific daytime Arietid meteor shower doesn't peak at night, but during the day. That, of course, makes most of the meteors nearly impossible to see. But there's still a chance of spotting shooting stars in the predawn hours on June 7, just before the estimated peak during the daylight hours. And if you want to "see" the daytime activity, visit the NASA Meteor Shower Portal and look for colored dots—those indicate meteors associated with the active meteor shower. The June full moon, known as the Strawberry Moon, rises over St Paul's Cathedral and The Shard in central London on June 22, 2024. Photograph by Peter Macdiarmid, eyevine/Redux The full Strawberry Moon rises behind the Empire State Building in New York City on June 21, 2024. Photograph by Gary Hershorn, Getty Images This month's full moon, known as the "Strawberry Moon," won't take on the red hue of its namesake fruit, but it is lovely nonetheless. The nickname, popularized by the Farmers' Almanac, is derived from Indigenous traditions in North America that link full moons to annual harvesting and hunting events. In June, that's the ripening of wild strawberries. (Learn about the lunar cycle and the origins of each month's full moon name.) Old European nicknames for the June full moon include the Mead or Honey Moon. According to NASA, this might be tied to the honey harvesting that happens during this month—and it could be the inspiration for the modern honeymoon, as ancient traditions called for June weddings. Mars and Regulus meet, and a "well-placed" Butterfly Cluster—June 16 Mars and the bright star Regulus—known for its colorful twinkling—will have a close encounter on June 16, with peak viewing occurring around 90 minutes after sunset. Regulus is a four-star system, as opposed to a single star, but only three of those four individual stars will be visible during this event through the eye of a telescope. Then, around midnight, the Butterfly Cluster will be "well-placed" in the night sky, reaching its highest point above the horizon. To see this butterfly-shaped open cluster of stars, grab a pair of binoculars. The summer Milky Way filling the night sky at Waterton Lakes National Park in Alberta, Canada. The pink glow of the Lagoon Nebula can be seen above the horizon, in the Milky Way galaxy's core. Composite Photograph by Alan Dyer, VW Pics/UIG/Getty Images Star clusters aren't the only "well-placed" celestial objects this month. The Lagoon Nebula, or Messier 8, is a swirling cloud of interstellar gas where stars are born, located some 5,200 light years away. It reaches its highest point in the night sky around midnight on June 22. From mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the Lagoon Nebula can sometimes be seen with the naked eye under ideal viewing conditions. Otherwise, binoculars or a telescope is the best way to spot them. Prime stargazing conditions—June 25 On this night, there's a new moon lunar cycle, which means the sky will be plenty dark for stargazing. While brighter celestial objects like planets and stars are typically visible through the moon's light pollution, dimmer ones like distant galaxies and nebulae will be easier to see during the new moon, particularly through a telescope. (These are the best stargazing sites in North America.) If you're a photographer, this is the perfect time to try your hand at astrophotography. In the Northern Hemisphere, the Milky Way's galactic core rises high in the night sky throughout the summer, making it a prime focal point. A Bootid meteor seen photographed in June 2018. Photograph by Steve Dudrow, Getty Images The Bootids are a notoriously variable meteor shower, producing astonishing displays of hundreds of shooting stars some years, and just a few other years. If you're willing to try your luck, the meteor shower is expected to peak on June 27. And luck is already on your side—the moon will be barely illuminated as a waxing crescent, so it won't impede your view of fainter shooting stars. Close approach of the moon and Mars—June 30 To close out the month, the waxing crescent moon and Mars will put on a little show. Our celestial neighbors will pass within 1°16' of each other; if you hold your arm out fully toward the moon and stick your pinky finger up, your finger's width is about the distance between the pair, so you'll be able to see them simultaneously through binoculars. Keep an eye out for the "earthshine" phenomenon, where light reflected from Earth makes the unlit part of the crescent moon glow faintly. This most commonly happens just after sunset or right before sunrise.
The Star
02-05-2025
- Science
- The Star
Eta Aquarids meteor shower expected to peak in Singapore on May 6 and 7
For the best chance of spotting a meteor or two, head to open, darker locations such as beaches, parks or reservoirs. -- PHOTO: ST FILE SINGAPORE (The Straits Times/ANN): The Eta Aquarids meteor shower, born from the dusty trail of a comet, is set to make its annual appearance in Singapore's skies next week, with peak activity expected during the early hours of May 6 and 7. Skygazers might catch a fleeting glimpse of this cosmic event if the weather holds and light pollution does not stand in the way. On May 2, the Observatory at Science Centre Singapore said a meteor shower takes place when the Earth passes through a stream of debris left behind by sources such as comets, asteroids or other planets. These tiny fragments, often no larger than grains of sand, burn up as they collide with Earth's atmosphere, creating the fast-moving streaks of light called meteors or 'shooting stars'. The Eta Aquarids is an annual meteor shower linked to Comet 1P/Halley, also known as Halley's Comet. According to US space agency Nasa, Halley's Comet is known as the most famous comet due to its historic significance. Until the 18th century, comets were thought to make only a single journey through Earth's solar system. That changed in 1705, when English astronomer Edmond Halley used Sir Isaac Newton's laws of gravity and motion to study comet paths. He noticed similarities in the orbits of bright comets seen in 1531, 1607 and 1682, and proposed that they were, in fact, the same comet returning over time. He predicted it would come back again in 1758 and it did. It became the first known 'periodic' comet and was later named in his honour. Meteors in the Eta Aquarids meteor shower are fast, zipping into the Earth's atmosphere at around 65 kilometres per second. Some leave glowing 'trains' that can linger for minutes. When the phenomenon peaks, observers may see up to 50 meteors per hour radiating from the direction of the constellation Aquarius, near the star Eta Aquarii. The shower is active from April 20 to May 21, but visibility will be highest after 3am on May 6 and 7, when the radiant point is higher in the sky and the bright gibbous Moon has set. For the best chance of spotting a meteor or two, the Observatory suggests heading to open, darker locations such as beaches, parks or reservoirs. Those looking to spot meteors in those areas should first allow their eyes 20 to 30 minutes to adjust to the dark. No telescope or binoculars are needed – just patience, clear skies and a little luck. This cosmic event follows the recent Lyrid meteor shower in April, which many in Singapore missed due to cloudy skies. If the heavens cooperate this time, the Eta Aquarids could offer a brief but beautiful reminder of the wonders beyond the city lights. - The Straits Times/ANN
