Latest news with #EkremImamoğlu
Qatar Tribune
21-07-2025
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
Turkey inflation expectations down ahead of key rate meeting
Agencies Inflation in Turkey is forecast to fall to 29.66% as of the end of the year, according to a survey by the country's central bank on Monday that showed expectations continued to improve ahead of a key policy rate meeting this week. The projection is down from 29.86% expectation in June and 30.35% forecast in May, according to the Survey of Market Participants for June by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Aggressive monetary tightening since mid-2023, combined with favorable energy prices, has helped reduce Turkey's annual inflation rate by more than half over the past year. The inflation lastly dipped to 35.05% in June. Monthly inflation was 1.37%, with price declines in key categories such as food and beverages reinforcing the central bank's view that a disinflation trend is taking hold. The central bank has repeatedly cited expectations as one factor determining the course of its monetary policy. In May, it maintained its year-end mid-point estimate for the consumer price index (CPI) at 24%, with an upper band of 29%. Turkish officials continue to emphasize that inflation will remain within this forecast band. The better-than-expected June inflation print renewed expectations that the central bank would return to an interest rate-cutting cycle at the meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) this Thursday. All but one of the 17 economists in a Reuters poll forecast the bank to cut the policy rate this week. The median forecast was for a 250 basis-point cut to 43.50%, with predictions ranging from 42.50% to 44.50% among those expecting an easing step. Thirteen respondents expected a cut of 250 basis points, while one predicted the bank to hold rates at 46%. Most expect rate cuts to continue in the months ahead, with the policy rate falling to 36% by the end of 2025, according to the bank's survey. The monetary easing is likely to continue through at least the third quarter of 2026, an earlier poll of economists showed. If delivered, the move would mark the first cut since a surprise 350 basis-point hike in April, which reversed an earlier easing cycle. That tightening helped stabilize markets after the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu sent Turkish assets and the lira sharply lower in March. Imamoğlu was arrested pending trial over graft charges. Morgan Stanley also expects a 250 basis-point cut this month, followed by three additional cuts of the same size to bring the policy rate to 36% by year-end. Markets see inflation 12 months from now falling to 23.39%, the CBRT survey showed on Monday. That is down from 24.56% in the June survey. The 24-month inflation outlook edged down from 17.35% to 17.08%, the bank said. On the currency front, participants revised their year-end dollar/lira forecast slightly upward to 43.72, from 43.57. The 12-month forecast for the exchange rate also rose from 47.04 to 47.70.
Forbes
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Forbes
Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Crackdown In Turkey Throttles European Energy
Befitting its status as a country bridging Europe and Asia, the Turkish government's massive crackdown on the country's Republican People's Party (CHP) opposition party and arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and leader of the CHP, has immediate implications for the entire region. Recent events are raising alarm bells in Europe that Turkish chaos could hurt an already energy-hungry Europe, which depends on Türkiye's energy transit. Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the country's strongman leader for the past twenty-two years and has not been shy about using power against the political competition. On March 18th, the university diploma of his key rival, Ekrem Imamoğlu, was abruptly revoked on an administrative technicality. This was an attempted political coup de grâs, as candidates for the presidency must have a university degree according to Turkish law. The transparent move immediately triggered accusations that Erdoğan was trying to stifle the opposition. Next, on the morning of March 19th, Imamoğlu's house was surrounded, and he was arrested on allegations of corruption and terrorism links, just days before he was about to be named presidential candidate of the CHP. Presidential elections are slated to be held in 2028, though they may occur earlier. Writing from prison on March 23rd, Imamoğlu declared: 'I have been imprisoned on the basis of vague hearsay from a handful of so-called 'confidential witnesses'. There is no conviction against me. I am a political prisoner." Apparently, many Turks agreed. Protests broke out as soon as Imamoğlu was arrested. Despite a government ban, the demonstrations grew to become the largest Türkiye has seen in over a decade, with crowd estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to half a million and more, and spread to more than 55 of Turkey's 81 provinces. They were met with a forceful crackdown. Over 1,400 people, including journalists, were arrested. Multiple media outlets were fined for covering the demonstrations. Nevertheless, millions turned out to vote for Imamoğlu to be the CHP's candidate for president. The stage is set for a political showdown, the opposition is not backing off, and neither is Erdoğan or his neo-Ottoman, religious conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). To better understand the dissatisfaction and distrust that the Turkish population is displaying, it is worth noting that the inflation rate has slowed to a still intolerable 38.10% a year, making life exceedingly difficult for the majority of people and fueling interest in getting someone with a new outlook into power. The political turmoil swiftly spilled over into Türkiye's economy. The MSCI Türkiye Index fell by 20.9%, signaling a sharp market reaction to the rising instability. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) surged to 324, a nearly 30% increase, signaling escalating risks and higher borrowing costs. The Turkish lira depreciated further, dropping as much as 12% right after Imamoğlu's arrest, despite the Turkish Central Bank spending $12 billion in foreign reserves to save the lira after it hit a record low. The central bank also raised interest rates to 46% overnight, from 42%. Despite the Central Bank's efforts to attract foreign direct investment, recent political developments have once again shaken investor confidence. This was best illustrated in a Bloomberg report describing how, during a meeting with a Turkish economist on March 19th where they were expecting good news, Wall Street investors watched in real-time as news alerts on their phones showed Turkish stocks seeing their largest drop since 2013, eroding trust in the country's stability in just 30 minutes. Investors looking at long-term investments like energy care about the rule of law, good governance, transparency, certainty, and stability for their returns. All of which increasingly authoritarian Türkiye lacks. The recent uproar demonstrated once more that there is no guarantee Erdoğan will follow sensible policies, and that instead he is willing to sacrifice political and fiscal stability on the altar of his ambitions to remain in office at all costs. Erdoğan talks a good game about his commitment to investor-friendly economic policies; however, the damage may have already been done and will cost Türkiye tens of billions of dollars. Türkiye is not rich in oil and gas, so it has turned to renewable energy as a key strategy to reduce its dependence on costly energy imports. With energy being a long-term infrastructure investment, those looking to invest in wind, solar, and hydro in Türkiye will likely withhold investment decisions, a costly dynamic as Türkiye has publicly declared it will invest $20 billion in renewable energy and infrastructure by 2030. By creating an environment hostile to foreign investment, Erdoğan may have jeopardized the country's long-term developmental goals and damaged Türkiye's prospects for energy independence. A more volatile economic environment may also impact Türkiye's role as an energy transit hub. As an integral part of existing initiatives such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Iraq's Development Road, Türkiye has historically been key to transporting hydrocarbons between the Middle East and Europe. As Europe seeks transit routes outside of Russia, projects like the EastMed pipeline, which partially relies on Türkiye's acquiescence, could be further jeopardized amidst existing delays. As President Trump continues to decouple from Europe and fan conflict and unpredictability in relations between the U.S. and the EU, Türkiye, as a route of transporting energy resources, is looking riskier, which has a distinct impact on European energy security. The muted Western response to Türkiye's turmoil highlights how the rapid pace of current geopolitical change and uncertainty influences the behavior of nation states. Türkiye's location and strategic importance is prompting diminished criticism of its democratic backsliding. In the U.S, President Trump has made no statement condemning Erdoğan's actions. The EU needs Türkiye for its new joint defense strategies as it holds the second-largest military in NATO after the U.S., and to keep migration under control. However, while many states may prioritize maintaining a relationship with Ankara, investors have no such obligations. The events unfolding in Türkiye starkly reflect the broader trends of 2025: geopolitical uncertainty and further democratic backsliding. Türkiye's latest political crackdown exemplifies both. Just as the country was beginning to rebuild economic credibility, this dramatic setback has significant financial consequences that threaten Türkiye's potential for growth and Europe's energy supply. With Erdoğan's most recent crackdown, yet another key European trading partner has joined the race to increase political risk, and this dynamic will surely limit the prospects of strengthening the continent's energy security.
Forbes
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Forbes
Erdoğan's Crackdown In Türkiye Throttles European Energy
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's anti-democratic actions will have a significant economic ... More impact on the country (Photo by Adem ALTAN / AFP) (Photo by ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images) Befitting its status as a country bridging Europe and Asia, the Turkish government's massive crackdown on the country's Republican People's Party (CHP) opposition party and arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and leader of the CHP, has immediate implications for the entire region. Recent events are raising alarm bells in Europe that Turkish chaos could hurt an already energy-hungry Europe, which depends on Türkiye's energy transit. Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the country's strongman leader for the past twenty-two years and has not been shy about using power against the political competition. On March 18th, the university diploma of his key rival, Ekrem Imamoğlu, was abruptly revoked on an administrative technicality. This was an attempted political coup de grâs, as candidates for the presidency must have a university degree according to Turkish law. The transparent move immediately triggered accusations that Erdoğan was trying to stifle the opposition. Next, on the morning of March 19th, Imamoğlu's house was surrounded, and he was arrested on allegations of corruption and terrorism links, just days before he was about to be named presidential candidate of the CHP. Presidential elections are slated to be held in 2028, though they may occur earlier. Writing from prison on March 23rd, Imamoğlu declared: 'I have been imprisoned on the basis of vague hearsay from a handful of so-called 'confidential witnesses'. There is no conviction against me. I am a political prisoner." Apparently, many Turks agreed. Protests broke out as soon as Imamoğlu was arrested. Despite a government ban, the demonstrations grew to become the largest Türkiye has seen in over a decade, with crowd estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to half a million and more, and spread to more than 55 of Turkey's 81 provinces. They were met with a forceful crackdown. Over 1,400 people, including journalists, were arrested. Multiple media outlets were fined for covering the demonstrations. Nevertheless, millions turned out to vote for Imamoğlu to be the CHP's candidate for president. The stage is set for a political showdown, the opposition is not backing off, and neither is Erdoğan or his neo-Ottoman, religious conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). To better understand the dissatisfaction and distrust that the Turkish population is displaying, it is worth noting that the inflation rate has slowed to a still intolerable 38.10% a year, making life exceedingly difficult for the majority of people and fueling interest in getting someone with a new outlook into power. The political turmoil swiftly spilled over into Türkiye's economy. The MSCI Türkiye Index fell by 20.9%, signaling a sharp market reaction to the rising instability. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) surged to 324, a nearly 30% increase, signaling escalating risks and higher borrowing costs. The Turkish lira depreciated further, dropping as much as 12% right after Imamoğlu's arrest, despite the Turkish Central Bank spending $12 billion in foreign reserves to save the lira after it hit a record low. The central bank also raised interest rates to 46% overnight, from 42%. ISTANBUL, TURKEY - APRIL 13, 2025: Students take part in a protest against the arrest of Istanbul's ... More mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, responding to a series of actions where President Erdogan has assumed further power over the government. (Photo credit should read Tolga Ildun / GocherImagery/Future Publishing via Getty Images) Despite the Central Bank's efforts to attract foreign direct investment, recent political developments have once again shaken investor confidence. This was best illustrated in a Bloomberg report describing how, during a meeting with a Turkish economist on March 19th where they were expecting good news, Wall Street investors watched in real-time as news alerts on their phones showed Turkish stocks seeing their largest drop since 2013, eroding trust in the country's stability in just 30 minutes. Investors looking at long-term investments like energy care about the rule of law, good governance, transparency, certainty, and stability for their returns. All of which increasingly authoritarian Türkiye lacks. The recent uproar demonstrated once more that there is no guarantee Erdoğan will follow sensible policies, and that instead he is willing to sacrifice political and fiscal stability on the altar of his ambitions to remain in office at all costs. Erdoğan talks a good game about his commitment to investor-friendly economic policies; however, the damage may have already been done and will cost Türkiye tens of billions of dollars. Türkiye is not rich in oil and gas, so it has turned to renewable energy as a key strategy to reduce its dependence on costly energy imports. With energy being a long-term infrastructure investment, those looking to invest in wind, solar, and hydro in Türkiye will likely withhold investment decisions, a costly dynamic as Türkiye has publicly declared it will invest $20 billion in renewable energy and infrastructure by 2030. By creating an environment hostile to foreign investment, Erdoğan may have jeopardized the country's long-term developmental goals and damaged Türkiye's prospects for energy independence. A more volatile economic environment may also impact Türkiye's role as an energy transit hub. As an integral part of existing initiatives such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Iraq's Development Road, Türkiye has historically been key to transporting hydrocarbons between the Middle East and Europe. As Europe seeks transit routes outside of Russia, projects like the EastMed pipeline, which partially relies on Türkiye's acquiescence, could be further jeopardized amidst existing delays. As President Trump continues to decouple from Europe and fan conflict and unpredictability in relations between the U.S. and the EU, Türkiye, as a route of transporting energy resources, is looking riskier, which has a distinct impact on European energy security. The muted Western response to Türkiye's turmoil highlights how the rapid pace of current geopolitical change and uncertainty influences the behavior of nation states. Türkiye's location and strategic importance is prompting diminished criticism of its democratic backsliding. In the U.S, President Trump has made no statement condemning Erdoğan's actions. The EU needs Türkiye for its new joint defense strategies as it holds the second-largest military in NATO after the U.S., and to keep migration under control. However, while many states may prioritize maintaining a relationship with Ankara, investors have no such obligations. The events unfolding in Türkiye starkly reflect the broader trends of 2025: geopolitical uncertainty and further democratic backsliding. Türkiye's latest political crackdown exemplifies both. Just as the country was beginning to rebuild economic credibility, this dramatic setback has significant financial consequences that threaten Türkiye's potential for growth and Europe's energy supply. With Erdoğan's most recent crackdown, yet another key European trading partner has joined the race to increase political risk, and this dynamic will surely limit the prospects of strengthening the continent's energy security.
Memri
04-04-2025
- Politics
- Memri
A 'Terror' For Erdoğan
"There is no fear like that of the one who sells out his people." – Nâzım Hikmet On March 19, 2025, the Turkish government under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrested Ekrem Imamoğlu, who has been mayor of Istanbul since 2019, on charges of "establishing and managing a criminal organization," "helping a terror organization,"[1] "taking bribes," "extortion," "unlawfully recording personal data," and "rigging a tender."[2] The Interior Ministry announced that he was also suspended from his post as mayor as a temporary measure.[3] On March 28, even Imamoğlu's lawyer was arrested and later released on the condition that he be kept under "judicial control."[4] Imamoğlu, who is now being held in Istanbul's Silivri prison, notorious for its housing of political prisoners, is a leading figure in the main opposition party in Turkey, the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP), which was the party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of the Republic of Turkey. Imamoğlu has long been viewed as the likely presidential candidate in presidential elections that, by Turkish law, need to be scheduled before May 7, 2028. Another popular figure is Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara. On March 24, several days after his arrest, Imamoğlu won a CHP party vote and was declared the party's presidential candidate,[5] a decision formalized by the party on March 27.[6] The CHP had made significant gains in the 2019 local elections,[7] but it was the 2024 local elections that were a major upset: For the first time in 22 years of the rule of Erdoğan's Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP), the CHP received more votes than the AKP – 37.8 percent of Turks voted for the CHP over 35.5 percent voting for the AKP.[8] The CHP also won the mayorships of Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, Bursa, and Antalya – together constituting the country's capital and five largest cities. It is therefore not surprising that the country erupted in demonstrations following Imamoğlu's arrest, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in dozens of cities. Media have reported significant protests ongoing in Adana,[9] Ankara,[10] Antalya,[11] Aydın,[12] Balıkesir,[13] Adıyaman,[14] Afyonkarahisar,[15] Amasya,[16] Ardahan,[17] Artvin,[18] Bartın,[19] Bilecik,[20] Bolu,[21] Burdur,[22] Bursa,[23] Çanakkale,[24] Denizli,[25] Edirne,[26] Eskişehir,[27] Giresun,[28] İstanbul,[29] İzmir,[30] Kastamonu,[31] Kırıkkale,[32] Kırşehir,[33] Kütahya,[34] Manisa,[35] Mersin,[36] Muğla,[37] Sinop,[38] Tekirdağ,[39] Uşak,[40] Yalova[41] and Zonguldak.[42] CHP leader Özgür Özel said that 2,200,000 people protested the arrest at Istanbul's Maltepe district on March 29,[43] though media reports put the number at hundreds of thousands.[44] This list is not exhaustive. Attendants protest the arrest of leading opposition figure Ekrem Imamoğlu at a massive rally in Maltepe on March 29. Erdoğan's government has responded as it has historically in such situations: with "rubber bullets" as reported by the media,[45] which Turkish analysts take to mean projectiles from the FN 303 riot gun used by Turkish police;[46] TOMA vehicles, which are the Turkish-made armored water cannons designed for riot control that became famous during their widespread deployment in crushing the 2013 Gezi Park protests;[47] tear gas, for nearly half a million units of which Turkish police recently placed orders to refill their warehouses;[48] 1,876 people detained and 260 arrested as of March 27,[49] including 37 arrests for social media posts;[50] the banning from broadcasting for 10 days of the TV channel of the leading opposition outlet Sözcü;[51] the arrest of Turkish journalists covering the protests, including Yasin Akgül, Zeynep Kuray, Hayri Dinç, Kurtuluş Arı, Ali Onur Tosun, Bülent Kılıç, Gökhan Kam, Elif Bayburt, and Nisa Suda Demirel;[52] the arrest of Swedish journalist Joakim Medin when he arrived at the airport on March 27 to cover the protests;[53] the deportation of BBC Turkey journalist Mark Lowen on the grounds that he was "a threat to public order";[54] the banning public gatherings and protests through March 26 by the Istanbul Governor's Office;[55] the restriction of access to YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, and Telegram in Turkey;[56] the restriction by March 27, of a CHP website calling for a boycott of government-aligned businesses in Turkey;[57] and court orders to X, formerly Twitter, to close "over 700 accounts of news organizations, journalists, political figures, students, and others,"[58] with which X has said that it will not comply, though there are reports that some X accounts reporting on the protests have been shut down.[59] Perhaps Erdoğan would have provoked less of a reaction with such a move – which he timed carefully during Ramadan, when most Turks are fasting and therefore less likely to go into the streets to protest, and also ahead of Eid celebrations – if the arrest were not so transparently political. If Erdoğan were looking to uncover those helping terrorist organizations in his government, he need only look in the mirror. Was it under Imamoğlu that those from around the world seeking to join ISIS poured for years through Turkey into Syria to slaughter civilians and build their caliphate, or was that under Erdoğan? Is it Imamoğlu who apparently continues to permit ISIS leaders to meet in the capital city of Turkey to coordinate their activity in Syria?[60] As for corruption – was it Imamoğlu who, in hushed tones told his son in a December 2013 phone call, "They are doing a big corruption raid... whatever you have in your house, remove it," admonishing him, after he spoke casually of removing amounts of 10, 25, and 30 million Euro, "don't speak openly"? Was it Imamoğlu on that phone call, or was it the reis himself?[61] Is it under Imamoğlu that tens of millions of lira have disappeared from the country's Religious Affairs Ministry, which hosts events at five-star hotels, appoints the family members of senior leadership to positions for which they are not not qualified, and maintains a growing portfolio of property?[62] Did Imamoğlu build extravagant palaces in Ankara and on Lake Van[63] while cases of povery-related suicide were reportedly increasing in the country, or was that Erdoğan?[64] Would that it were otherwise, but unfortunately this list, too, is far from exhaustive. To summarize: Erdoğan likely orders the arrest of the leading opposition figure – such a move would be unlikely to be taken without at least his explicit approval. He does so on corruption and terrorism charges, which are laughable in Erdoğan's Turkey. Then he arrests the lawyer who represents that figure. Then he arrests the protesters who stand up in a natural democratic revolt against such a consolidation of power. Viewing this picture together, it seems clear that the "terrorist organization" that Imamoğlu is accused of helping is simply the formidable opposition party in Turkey that is closing in on ending Erdoğan's reign – this is a terror for him indeed. * Yigal Carmon is President and Founder of MEMRI.
CNN
19-03-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Video: Turkish officials detain key Erdogan rival, Istanbul mayor
Turkish officials have detained Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The detainment comes as part of corruption and terrorism investigations. In a video posted on X, the mayor said he is up against 'huge bullying.'
