Latest news with #Emanuel
Atlantic
18 hours ago
- Entertainment
- Atlantic
The 2028 Presidential Race Has Begun
This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor and adviser to two Democratic presidents, is suddenly all over the news. This week alone, he's appeared on a number of podcasts in what seem to be early forays into an exploratory campaign for president. Emanuel went on the former Fox News host Megyn Kelly's podcast and answered 'no' when asked if a man can 'become a woman.' On another podcast, with The Free Press 's Bari Weiss, Emanuel said that Democrats lost in 2024 because Kamala Harris didn't set herself apart from Joe Biden, and noted that his party 'got sidetracked' by issues that were not front of mind for voters. Emanuel was the most visible in the media this week, but he's not the only would-be candidate we're hearing from. This morning, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg went on the podcast The Breakfast Club; he also made a surprise cameo on a Barstool Sports podcast last week to present a jokey 'Lib of the Year' award to the internet personality Jersey Jerry, who was wearing a MAGA hat. In an elegant Vogue spread, an old-school and somewhat stiff way to communicate one's political ambitions, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear bragged about having once been on MrBeast's show. 'We've got to do the YouTube shows,' he said, telling the reporter that, unlike Harris, he would have gone on The Joe Rogan Experience. Buttigieg and Representative Ro Khanna of California have both appeared on the comedy podcast Flagrant, co-hosted by Andew Schulz. California Governor Gavin Newsom invited the conservative activist Charlie Kirk to be a guest on the first episode of his podcast. These appearances indicate that Democrats 'are finally waking up to the fact that you can't run a presidential campaign' simply 'by going on CNN and MSNBC,' Lis Smith, a Democratic strategist who worked on Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign, told me. And these public appearances aren't just a way for presidential hopefuls to introduce themselves to voters; they're also opportunities for donors and party elites to start eyeballing their favorites and winnowing the primary field. Most party strategists I've spoken with this year believe that Democrats need to appear on more nontraditional and ideologically diverse outlets to reach new voters and make more people—even those who don't agree with the Democrats on everything—feel welcome inside the party tent. Donald Trump's successful turns on Rogan's podcast and on shows hosted by the comedians Theo Von and Schulz contributed to his victory last November. Democratic hopefuls everywhere are swearing more and attempting to adopt a little more swagger. In his interview with Weiss, Emanuel, who once sent a dead fish to a political enemy, leaned back in his chair, looking unbothered; Buttigieg chopped it up with the bros on Flagrant for more than two hours. Notably, some female potential candidates aren't yet in the mix—where's Gretchen Whitmer these days? Erickson didn't know, but she told me that it's clear that the party's decline in support from men 'has really lit a fire under Democratic dudes.' Along with a broader shift in media strategy, we're also seeing a shift in rhetoric from at least some Democrats who are trying to position themselves as moderates. 'These folks are right that the Democratic Party was seen as too extreme, and that contributed to our loss,' Lanae Erickson, a senior vice president at the center-left think tank Third Way, told me. She's pleased, she said, that the current zeitgeist seems to be a move 'toward the middle.' The great Democratic course correction has begun. Part of that involves punching left. After Emanuel told Kelly that a man cannot become a woman, Kelly sighed, lamenting, 'Why don't more people in your party just say that?' 'Because,' Emanuel joked, 'I'm now going to go into a witness-protection plan.' Newsom told Kirk that allowing transgender athletes to compete in women's sports is 'deeply unfair,' and had broader critiques of the Democratic Party's communication skills. Democrats on the campaign trail have had a difficult time addressing topics around gender. One analysis conducted by a Democratic super PAC found that a Republican ad about Harris's views on transgender identity was effective for Trump during the 2024 campaign. (Many Democrats criticized Harris's campaign for refusing to respond to the ad, whose tagline read: 'Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.') Emanuel's answer on Kelly's show, whether or not it's a winning message with the Democratic base, speaks to a tone change on the topic. Every 2028 hopeful can expect to be asked directly about their views on the subject—and 'should be ready to answer,' Smith told me. Even by the standards of the previous cycle's freakishly early campaigning, all of this might seem rather premature to discuss. But as Emanuel himself is famous for saying, a good crisis should never go to waste. Democratic presidential hopefuls are well aware that the party's leadership vacuum is an opportunity—and they're determined to not misuse it. Here are three new stories from The Atlantic: Today's News French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will recognize Palestine as a state, which would make France the first G7 country to do so. House Democrats repeatedly attempted to force votes on releasing files related to Jeffrey Epstein yesterday. The House recessed without moving forward on any legislation. Columbia University announced last night that it will pay $200 million over three years to the federal government to settle claims that it failed to protect Jewish students; the move will restore most federal grants paused by the Trump administration. Dispatches Time-Travel Thursdays: Facial hair is back in style —but if history is any guide, that won't last forever, Marc Novicoff writes. More From The Atlantic Evening Read The Problem With Rewards Credit Cards By Ellen Cushing Fancy cards are like coupon books or miners' scrip, but they are also, in this sense, more like high-end gym memberships. The commodity they offer is access to a rarefied place, one where everyone else is attractive and competent, putting in the work and reaping the rewards. The product is a subscription to do more work—it's a tax on laziness or a deposit on your future self's conscientiousness. But it seems to me that credit-card companies, and gyms, know something consumers don't: Everybody thinks they'll be a more diligent person tomorrow. Watch. In the film Eddington (out now in theaters), Ari Aster channels early-pandemic dread into a dark tale of a sheriff's unraveling, David Sims writes. Read. Earlier this year, Rhian Sasseen recommended six overlooked books that deserve a second life. Play our daily crossword.
New York Post
19 hours ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Rahm Emanuel's ritual humiliation explains the Democrats' plight
Longtime Democratic hand Rahm Emanuel wants to believe he can win his party's presidential nomination in 2028. But deep down, he knows he can't — and not for lack of self-confidence. Or self-delusion. Emanuel has been testing the waters ahead of a possible White House campaign for months. Politico reported in March that he was 'gearing up' for a run — and he's been making the rounds advocating for a more moderate, plain-spoken Democratic Party ever since. On Monday, that mission took him to Megyn Kelly's radio show, where she asked him a series of straightforward questions about gender ideology and policy. The former chief of staff to Barack Obama dithered when asked if minors should have access to irreversible hormone therapies, but agreed with Kelly that biological boys have no place in girls' sports. 'Why did all the Democrats bail off of that point?' Kelly asked him. 'A couple came out right after the election and they said what you just said, and then they got brow-beaten, and then they started to walk it back.' 'The answer's in the question,' replied Emanuel, as he showcased his supposed bravado. 'That's not ever scared me,' he bragged. 'I used to say this to President Clinton and President Obama: Sound is not always fury, sometimes it's just sound. And don't assume just because somebody's screaming at you, they represent more than their own voice.' But just a few moments later he betrayed himself. When Kelly asked him directly if a man can 'become a woman,' Emanuel — after a pause — answered her truthfully: 'No.' 'Thank you! That's so easy,' Kelly exclaimed with delight. 'Why don't more people in your party just say that?' 'Because I'm now going to go into a witness protection plan,' answered Emanuel, laughing nervously. OK, so maybe he's a little scared. The incongruence between Emanuel's acknowledgement of reality and his subsequent admission of what it would cost him exemplifies the dilemma that continues to haunt the Democratic Party. Despite President Donald Trump's relatively soft approval rating, the other team remains historically unpopular. One recent poll suggested that congressional Democrats are underwater by more than 30%, while another found only 28% of Americans approve of the party itself. That's the bad news. The worse news is that the party is unpopular among different groups, for different reasons. The independents and working-class Democrats Emanuel is straining to reach resent the radical orthodoxy enforced by the party's progressive wing. Meanwhile, the leftists –– the same group of activists, journalists and electeds that have Emanuel shaking in his boots — are convinced that Democrats' woes stem from their failure to uniformly adhere to that very orthodoxy. These are the people who are showing up at town hall events to demand their representatives prepare for 'violence' and 'be willing to get shot.' They may be fewer in number than the moderates yearning for sanity, but they're also the ones who show up most reliably to vote in primaries. And they hold tremendous sway during campaign season, thanks to their disproportionate media representation. They're why Zohran Mamdani prevailed in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary, and why Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would easily unseat Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer if she challenged him in 2028. With their help she'd make short work of Emanuel, too, if she opted to run for president instead. Even without his party's leftward drift, Emanuel's less-than-stellar reputation would render his political comeback attempt quixotic. Absolutely no one is clamoring for a slimy operative-turned-failed-Chicago-mayor to take the country's reins. As valuable as the still-palpable nostalgia for the Obama years might be in a Democratic primary, there's not enough clout in the world for Emanuel to borrow that would make up for his own deficiencies as a candidate. But his flirtation with a presidential bid is less interesting for what it says about him than what it says about his party. Years out from the start of primary season, the activists are sharpening their knives, aiming to take Emanuel down and make an example of him. 'What a loser,' remarked left-wing journalist Malcolm Harris as he blasted Emanuel's sit-down with Kelly. 'That is such a bulls–t!' podcaster Jennifer Welch shouted at him, when he panned the party's focus on 'bathroom and locker room' issues earlier this year. And in a New Republic feature this month — mockingly titled 'How Rahm Emanuel Got Trapped in the Bathroom' — Parker Molloy accused him of treating 'trans kids' as a 'punchline,' and for erroneously believing that Democrats can 'win by becoming the party of strategic cruelty.' Institutionally, the Democratic Party has moved on not just from Rahm Emanuel, but from common sense and political practicality. So don't bet on him — or anyone else who openly embraces either notion — becoming the Democrats' next standard-bearer. Isaac Schorr is a staff writer at Mediaite.
The Hill
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Rahm Emanuel on ‘blinded' Hunter Biden criticism: ‘I think we're giving this more time than it's due'
Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, who is considering a 2028 presidential run, brushed off criticism from former President Biden's son, Hunter, who accused Emanuel of walking away from the party's values. Emanuel responded on Monday to a clip of the younger Biden's remarks during an interview on SiriusXM's 'The Megyn Kelly Show,' saying he's 'got empathy' for him, but doesn't take the criticism too seriously. 'I think we're giving this more time than it's due,' he said. 'That's my own view. A little empathetic, you have a son who's blinded by his own love for, in effect, and loyalty for his father, and I get that, but not the first phone call I'm going to make for a strategery.' Earlier Monday, Hunter Biden paraphrased remarks from 'Rahm f—ing Emanuel' in an interview with journalist and YouTube personality Andrew Callaghan. 'We got to understand that these people are really mad, and we got to appeal to these white voters,' Biden said. He then responded to the sentiment. 'Rahm, the only people that f—ing appeal to those f—ing white voters was Joe Biden,' he replied. '81 years old and he got 81 million votes… not because he appeased their f—ing Trumpian sense but because he challenged it, and he said, 'You can be an 81-year-old Catholic from f—ing Scranton that doesn't understand it but still has empathy for transgender people and immigrants.'' Emanuel has served in a multitude of political positions — from Chicago mayor to former President Obama's White House chief of staff, to senior adviser to former President Clinton to chair of the House Democrats' campaign arm, among others. He has indicated his interest in launching a 2028 presidential run and has begun to position himself to the right of some progressive members of his party. In the same interview, Emanuel told Kelly that he does not think a man can 'become a woman,' breaking with his party on the issue of transgender rights.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
'It isn't different this time': Why one strategist sees excessive investor euphoria driving a 15% stock plunge
Investors are overly optimistic as earnings season begins, warns Evercore's Julian Emanuel. The S&P 500 is at a record high, but Emanuel predicts a 7%-15% near-term correction. Tariff negotiations and growing S&P 500 EPS have already been priced into the market, Emanuel says. Investors are optimistic as earnings season kicks off — a little too optimistic, according to Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI's chief equity strategist. The S&P 500 notched another fresh record high on Monday, and sentiment is skyrocketing as Wall Street banks raise their year-end S&P 500 targets. However, stocks don't just go up: "Every structural bull market since the late 1990's has seen a late stage surge in capital markets activity and a period of intense investor FOMO," Emanuel wrote in a note over the weekend. Evercore is remaining cautious, with Emanuel warning of a 7%-15% correction in the coming months. Evercore's year-end target is 5,600. "FOMO has begun," Emanuel wrote. "Stocks have overdiscounted the potential for continued good news." Emanuel says old-school fund managers who lived through the dot-com bubble are now asking him the four most dangerous words in investing: Is it different this time? The question is a clear signal that FOMO has kicked in as investors become overconfident and play into the cycle of fear and greed. There's a lot of froth in the market: crypto is on a bull run as bitcoin hits all-time highs, zero days to expiration options are becoming popular among retail investors, and investors are counting on the AI story to continue carrying stocks higher. But good vibes aren't reason enough for the stock market to continue rallying. In fact, it's quite the opposite: before the dot-com bubble burst, bulls comprised 75% OF AAII sentiment survey respondents, a level never seen again since. Bullish investors point to strong economic data and an improving tariff backdrop as drivers for the stock market, but those tailwinds are largely already priced in, according to Emanuel. According to an Evercore survey, a majority of institutional investors anticipate tariff rates to come down from present levels of 22% to below 20% by September. They also expect S&P 500 EPS to rise above current levels of $264. With expectations already so elevated, it'll be difficult for economic data to continue surprising to the upside. And while there's much market volatility surrounding the idea of Fed independence and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's future, markets are still pricing in that Powell will remain at his position by year-end. "Even if there is good news on the tariff front, it is arguably already in stock prices," Emanuel wrote. "Despite the potential for tariff induced guide-downs and the historical tendency of earnings estimates to fall at this point in the cycle, 67% of investors believe earnings estimates for 2025 will be at or above the current $264 on 9/1," Emanuel added. With a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 24.7x, the S&P 500 is trading at the top decile of valuations since 1960. Emanuel doesn't see a market crash in the cards, as valuations haven't reached the dot-com bubble's 28x price-to-earnings ratio. A near-term pullback is Emmanuel's base case as investors overlook risks associated with ongoing tariff negotiations and the One Big Beautiful Bill posing risks to the bond market. "The asking of 'The Question' shows scant regard for near-term risks. It isn't different this time," Emanuel wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider
Business Insider
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
'It isn't different this time': Why one strategist sees excessive investor euphoria driving a 15% stock plunge
Investors are optimistic as earnings season kicks off — a little too optimistic, according to Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI's chief equity strategist. The S&P 500 notched another fresh record high on Monday, and sentiment is skyrocketing as Wall Street banks raise their year-end S&P 500 targets. However, stocks don't just go up: "Every structural bull market since the late 1990's has seen a late stage surge in capital markets activity and a period of intense investor FOMO," Emanuel wrote in a note over the weekend. Evercore is remaining cautious, with Emanuel warning of a 7%-15% correction in the coming months. Evercore's year-end target is 5,600. "FOMO has begun," Emanuel wrote. "Stocks have overdiscounted the potential for continued good news." Emanuel says old-school fund managers who lived through the dot-com bubble are now asking him the four most dangerous words in investing: Is it different this time? The question is a clear signal that FOMO has kicked in as investors become overconfident and play into the cycle of fear and greed. There's a lot of froth in the market: crypto is on a bull run as bitcoin hits all-time highs, zero days to expiration options are becoming popular among retail investors, and investors are counting on the AI story to continue carrying stocks higher. But good vibes aren't reason enough for the stock market to continue rallying. In fact, it's quite the opposite: before the dot-com bubble burst, bulls comprised 75% OF AAII sentiment survey respondents, a level never seen again since. Bullish investors point to strong economic data and an improving tariff backdrop as drivers for the stock market, but those tailwinds are largely already priced in, according to Emanuel. According to an Evercore survey, a majority of institutional investors anticipate tariff rates to come down from present levels of 22% to below 20% by September. They also expect S&P 500 EPS to rise above current levels of $264. With expectations already so elevated, it'll be difficult for economic data to continue surprising to the upside. And while there's much market volatility surrounding the idea of Fed independence and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell 's future, markets are still pricing in that Powell will remain at his position by year-end. "Even if there is good news on the tariff front, it is arguably already in stock prices," Emanuel wrote. "Despite the potential for tariff induced guide-downs and the historical tendency of earnings estimates to fall at this point in the cycle, 67% of investors believe earnings estimates for 2025 will be at or above the current $264 on 9/1," Emanuel added. With a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 24.7x, the S&P 500 is trading at the top decile of valuations since 1960. Emanuel doesn't see a market crash in the cards, as valuations haven't reached the dot-com bubble's 28x price-to-earnings ratio. A near-term pullback is Emmanuel's base case as investors overlook risks associated with ongoing tariff negotiations and the One Big Beautiful Bill posing risks to the bond market. "The asking of 'The Question' shows scant regard for near-term risks. It isn't different this time," Emanuel wrote.
