Latest news with #EmiratesNBDResearch
Khaleej Times
21-04-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Dubai inflation cools on softer transport and food costs
Softer transport and food costs resulted in the cooling of Dubai's consumers price index last month, data showed on Monday. According to Emirates NBD Research, headline CPI inflation in Dubai slowed to 2.8 per cent year on year in March, down from 3.2 per cent over the previous two months and the slowest pace of annual price growth since October last year. Prices were 0.1 per cent lower compared with February, marking the first monthly deflation since July 2024. Inflation over the first quarter averaged 3.0 per cent year on year, which was slightly lower that Emirates NBD's own forecast of 2.8 per cent. Emirates NBD expects price growth to be more modest through the remainder of the year than what was seen in Q1. 'Our expectation of softer headline inflation in the coming months is largely on the back of lower global oil prices, which have already come down sharply in April. This will be reflected in prices at the pump and in the transport component of the basket, which accounts for just over nine per cent of the total,' Daniel Richards, Senior Economist, Emirates NBD Research, wrote in a note. Transport has already been a key factor in keeping headline inflation down over recent months, and in March it was down 3.3 per cent year on year, reflecting the fact that a litre of super 98 in March 2025 cost 9.9 per cent less than it did in March 2024. 'In April, the same amount of petrol costs 18.4 per cent less than a year earlier, meaning the drag from transport will be even sharper in the next inflation print and through the rest of the year,' Richards wrote. Emirates NBD forecasts Brent crude to average of $68 per barrel this year, down from $80 in 2024. Housing impact The key driver of upwards inflation in Dubai remains housing and utilities, the largest component of the basket at 40.7 per cent and the component which is seeing the fastest price growth. In March, it was up 7.2 per cent year on year, down moderately from the near decade-high pace of 7.4 per cent the previous month but still quite sharply inflationary. 'This is reflective of ongoing price rises in the housing sector, with little change in utilities costs. While there is some suggestion of a stabilisation in the Dubai property sector, with price growth no longer accelerating, rents for apartments were still up by around 8 per cent year on year in Q1 while villas and townhouses were up by around 20 per cent,' Richards wrote. The rest of the basket continues to see either soft price growth or outright deflation, Emirates NBD noted. The second largest component after housing is food and beverages, and prices were down 0.3 per cent year on year in March despite the holy month of Ramadan largely falling in this period. This marked the third month in a row of deflation for food prices. Restaurants and accommodation meanwhile softened to 0.3 per cent, down from 0.7 per cent year on year in February, and clothing and footwear prices were down 2.7 per cent year on year for the second month running. Respondents to the S&P Global PMI survey for Dubai did raise their output prices in March but only marginally as the market remains highly competitive.
Zawya
08-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Tariffs should have modest impact on MENAT region: Report
Mubasher: US President Donald Trump has unveiled his long-anticipated tariff plan, announcing a substantial change in the US' position towards international trade. All trading partners of the US are now subject to a 10% baseline tariff that was implemented on 5 April 2025, while specific countries received tariffs at higher levels, according to a recent report by Emirates NBD Research. Among major trade partners that were targeted with higher rates are China at 34%, the European Union at 20%, Japan at 24% and South Korea at 25%. The Trump administration's metric for the level of 'reciprocal tariff' was based on the size of an individual country's trade position relative to the US divided by the US' imports from that country. Countries that run large trade surpluses with the US have received relatively higher tariff rates, for example Vietnam is at 46%, even though for many of them their capacity to increase their demand for US goods may be limited by economic conditions. In the Middle East, the six economies of the GCC will now face a tariff of 10% while higher rates apply for other Middle East economies like 39% for Iraq. Imports from Turkey will be subject to the baseline 10% rate while India will see a relatively higher tariff rate at 26%. The US has listed multiple exemption categories from the tariffs announced on 2 April 2025 though commodities like steel and aluminium are already covered by a higher tariff rate of 25% introduced earlier in 2025. Oil, natural gas and related products are not currently subject to tariffs while some other metals, pharmaceuticals and medical components, some building materials, precious metals and semi-conductors are also currently on the exemption list. In Saudi Arabia the largest export to the US is oil which represents 84% of total exports to the US. As a share of total Saudi oil exports, flows of oil to the US are meaningful at 5.7% and 4.1% of total overall exports. The US represents a negligible market for other Saudi exports, however. In Egypt, the largest export flow to the US is apparel at 47% of total Egyptian exports to the US. The US represents a key market for the Egyptian textile sector at 42% of total apparel exports and 2.3% of Egypt's total exports. Meanwhile, the US represents a relatively small share of total UAE exports at 2% of total as of 2023. Aluminium is the largest export good from the UAE to the US, accounting for 19% of total exports to the US and subject to the 25% tariff rate. As a share of total UAE aluminium exports, however, exports to the US represented 14% and just 0.4% of total UAE exports. Other key exports to the US include pearls and precious stones and miscellaneous manufactured goods as of 2023. India and Turkey, with large and diversified manufacturing bases, have relatively higher exposure to the US economy with the market accounting for almost 18% and 6% of their exports respectively. For India, pharmaceutical exports are one of the largest export groups to the US though these are currently exempt from tariffs. In Turkey, textiles are the largest single exposure to the US though at just 0.6% of total Turkish exports it is a relatively marginal share. Overall the impact of tariffs on the economies of the MENAT region should be fairly muted given they have a relatively limited exposure to the US economy and many sectors are exempt from tariffs at present. The UAE, in particular, has also actively pursued trading relationships with many economies around the world to reduce trade barriers to insulate itself from volatility in global trade flows. However, the sharp drop in oil prices following the announcement of the tariffs and OPEC+'s decision to bring forward its planned production increases will act as a strain on the fiscal position of many GCC economies in particular. Source: Mubasher All Rights Reserved - Mubasher Info © 2005 - 2022 Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. ( Mubasher
Khaleej Times
01-04-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Dubai population on track to reach 4 million this year
Dubai's population continued to increase at a steady pace in the first quarter of 2025, crossing 3.9 million for the first time as the inflow of new residents continued. According to Dubai Statistics Centre data, the emirate's population grew 51,295 during January to March 2025 as compared to 52,143 during the same period last year, reflecting Dubai and UAE's maintaining strong appeal for foreign professionals and millionaires. At the end of the first quarter of 2025, Dubai's population stood at 3.914 million. If the population continues at the current pace, it is expected that the population of the regional financial centre is set to reach 4 million landmark in the third quarter of this year. In 2024, the emirate's population grew by over 169,000 to 3.825 million. It was the fastest increase in annual population rate since 2018. The emirate's growing population will drive growth of multiple sectors mainly real estate, retail, food and beverages (F&B), travel and tourism, hospitality and many others. Emirates NBD Research noted in its Global Investment Outlook 2025 that the UAE's non-oil economy is 'benefitting from growing population.' 'A key driver of economic growth for the UAE is its expanding population. A vibrant labour market, long-term resident visas, coupled with best-in-class infrastructure for corporates, encourage white-collar workers to shift to the UAE. This steady influx of residents boosts consumption across real estate, telecom, retail and hospitality, supporting sustainable economic growth,' said Maurice Gravier, group chief investment officer, Emirates NBD Research. He added that the UAE's growing working-age population will be one of the main economic growth drivers and prosperity in the country. According to Emirates NBD Research, Dubai's GDP grew 3.1 per cent in the first 9 months of 2024 as the total level of real GDP reached Dh339 billion, up from Dh329 billion estimated for the first 9 months of 2023. According to the Global Investment Outlook 2025, the UAE is witnessing 'a growing affluent expat population' which accounts for a major portion of Dubai and UAE's population.
Khaleej Times
18-03-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Strong demand and strategic investments continue to drive UAE real estate market
Limited levels of available supply, infrastructure development delivery and alternative assets including last-mile logistics and data centres is driving the UAE's real estate performance in 2025, according to JLL's Middle East and Africa Market Review and Outlook 2025. 2024 ended on a strong note for Dubai's residential sector as sales transactions grew by 32 per cent compared to the previous year, totalling Dh367 billion. Investor appetite remained strong for off-plan properties, which accounted for the majority of transactions valued at approximately Dh223 billion, representing 60.7 per cent of the total. On the back of strong demand, developers launched around 157,000 units in 2024, the most in a single year, according to data from REIDIN. The rental market, on the other hand, recorded a 15.7 per cent y-o-y growth in lease rates at a slower pace of increase, indicating rents may be stabilising over the short-medium term. In Dubai, following a strong January with more than 13,500 transactions, activity levels have remained robust with an additional 15,300 units transacted in February, data from Emirates NBD Research. About eight per cent of the total units sold in February were concentrated in Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) as the sub-market led demand for both ready and under-construction properties. Transactions for apartment units saw a 14 per cent month-on-month increase, while demand for villa/townhouses grew by 10 per cent month on month. fter more than 6,500 new unit launches in January, an additional 7,190 units were launched in February 2025. Capital values have increased by an average two per cent month-on-month across both apartments and villas/townhouses. As key global macroeconomic headwinds began to ease over the course of 2024, the UAE was the only GCC country to record growth in oil-GDP despite ongoing oil production cuts. Non-oil GDP growth has been particularly strong in the UAE, which recorded growth rates of 4.7 per cent in 2024, and is expected to accelerate to 4.8 per cent in 2025. Taimur Khan, Head of Research MEA at JLL, said: 'With inflation rates stabilising and a robust labour market, the real estate sector is witnessing robust demand across key sectors in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi. GDP growth has been amongst the strongest in the UAE as compared to other GCC countries, which is a testament to the government's continued strategic efforts to attract investment. In 2025, enabling the conversion of qualified non-freehold properties will drive demand across submarkets while new infrastructure projects and alternative assets is expected to propel real estate development in the UAE.' Although the MEA region's construction project market slowed in 2024, the UAE dominated construction project awards during the year, securing the largest share with 47 per cent, equivalent to $34 billion. In terms of sectors, the UAE excelled in residential and mixed-use projects, awarding $28.3 billion and $ 4.6 billion, respectively. In the region's pipeline, UAE accounts for 20 per cent of upcoming construction projects. Gary Tracey, Head of Project & Development Services UAE at JLL, said: 'Despite rising construction costs, the UAE's real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025, as evidenced by robust order books and strong performance across the residential and mixed-use project sectors. This demonstrates the market's resilience and underlying strength but also underscores the need for diligent cost control and innovative solutions to ensure sustainable growth.' The UAE's tender price inflation (TPI) for 2024 averaged 3 per cent annually, closely mirroring the trajectory observed in 2023. This outcome was grounded in consistently high rates reflected in tender return data for 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, JLL anticipates a TPI of 2.5 per cent, with a possible variance of +/- 2 per cent. The outlook for 2025 suggests improved market conditions, driven by expected lower interest rates, stabilising commodity prices, and a more normalised supply chain. However, these positive factors are likely to be counterbalanced by market capacity constraints and prevailing sentiment within the contracting industry. In Abu Dhabi, the office market continued to record strong levels of demand in 2024 – the majority of which stemmed from government-related entities – with 47,615 office rental registrations, an increase of 30.8 per cent y-o-y. With demand expected to remain steadfast and new supply expected to be limited at 172,940 square metres, JLL expects the growth in rental rates will likely continue to strengthen in 2025, particularly in Prime and Grade A stock in core and central locations of the city. In Dubai, which has remained firmly landlord favoured, around 122,000 square metres of new office space is expected to come online in 2025, the majority of which is of Grade A specification, spread across areas such as DIFC, Dubai Internet City, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Sheikh Zayed Road.
Khaleej Times
10-03-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Dubai leads UAE in attracting greenfield FDI projects in 2024
Dubai accounted for the lion's share of the greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in the UAE last year, accounting for 58 per cent of the total, a report showed. According to Emirates NBD Research, the value of new greenfield projects in the UAE fell 33 per cent year on year in 2024 to $14.5 billion, representing a normalisation after a particularly strong 2023. Dubai remained the largest recipient of greenfield FDI in the UAE, accounting for around 58 per cent of the total value of announced projects, followed by Sharjah with almost 12 per cent in 2024. Abu Dhabi accounted for just under 11 per cent of the total value of announced projects last year but saw a sharp reduction from the levels seen in both 2022 and 2023, years in which there were substantial investments made in renewables, automotive OEMS and the ICT sector. Industries that saw the largest value of announced greenfield projects in the UAE in 2024 include real estate, software & IT, renewables, coal, oil and gas, business services, and automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Although the value of Saudi greenfield project announcements declined 28 per cent year on year in 2024 to almost $22 billion, it remains strong, being the third highest annual value on record. The US, China, the UK and the UAE were the top source countries for Saudi greenfield projects in 2024. The value of projects stemming from the US saw a sharp rise in 2024, driven by a $5.3 billion investment by Amazon Web Services in data and innovation centres, the report, written by senior economist Jeanne Walters, said. The main sources of FDI for projects in the UAE remain India, the US and the UK. Real estate, software & IT, renewables, coal, oil and gas, business services, and automotive OEMS were the industries that saw the largest value of announced greenfield projects in 2024. Notable projects include a $680 million project by Saudi-based ACWA Power for the development of a water plant in Sharjah, two solar power projects worth $633 million each, a $600 million bio-fuel processing plant in Fujairah, and several automotive OEM projects. The primary sources of FDI into GCC economies in 2024, on a value basis, included the US (25 per cent), China (17 per cent), the UK (9 per cent) and India (9 per cent). The UAE also made a material contribution to greenfield FDI in the rest of the GCC, accounting for 5 per cent of announced projects in 2024. Sectors seeing the highest value of greenfield projects include communications (18 per cent), renewables (14 per cent), metals (8 per cent), electronic components (8 per cent), as well as coal, oil and gas (8 per cent). Global FDI flows declined in 2024 in both value and volume. UNCTAD estimates that the number and value of announced greenfield FDI projects declined by 8 per cent and 7 per cent year on year respectively. Despite the annual decline, the value of greenfield project announcements remains high by historical standards because of several large-scale projects related to the manufacturing of semiconductors and AI technology. The UAE features as the source country for two of the top 10 projects by value of investment, including a real estate investment into Ras El-Hekma in Egypt by ADQ and an investment by Mubadala in semiconductor manufacturing in the US. While the aggregate value of greenfield projects fell in 2024, there were pronounced differences across geographical regions. Developed economies saw a 15 per cent year on year rise in the value of announced greenfield projects, disproportionately driven by large increases in the value of projects in the US (+93 per cent year on year) and the UK (+32 per cent year on year). In contrast, developing economies in saw a 24 per cent year on year decline in the value of announced greenfield projects.
