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Quebec's deficit will be lower than expected
Quebec's deficit will be lower than expected

CTV News

time27-06-2025

  • Business
  • CTV News

Quebec's deficit will be lower than expected

Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard responds to the Opposition during Question Period at the Quebec National Assembly, Thursday, April 24, 2025. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press) Quebec's Finance Ministry says it expects the 2024-2025 deficit will be $3.2 billion less than predicted in the March budget. During the budget announcement, Economy Minister Eric Girard said last year's deficit didn't hit the $11 billion mark it had first projected and was at $10.4 billon. In a new preliminary report released by the Ministry Friday, that number melted down to $7.3 billion for 2024-2025, representing 1.2 per cent of Quebec's GDP. That number takes into account $2.4 billion in payments to the Generations Fund, which is dedicated to repaying Quebec's debt. The exact amount of Quebec's deficit for the 2024-2025 fiscal year will be confirmed in the fall. The ministry attributes the revised numbers to a $2.3 billion decrease in government spending and a 'resilient' provincial economy. 'The financial situation for the 2024-2025 fiscal year has been revised positively thanks to an increase in revenue of nearly $1 billion and a decrease in expenditure growth from 7.7 per cent to 6.2 per cent,' Girard said in a statement. Meanwhile, economic growth was up by 1.3 per cent in 2024, compared to 0.6 per cent in 2023. The Ministry said it noted an increase in tax revenue from personal and corporate income taxes as well as consumption taxes. Hydro-Québec also saw an uptick in revenue. 'This positive revision is the result of measures taken over the past year to ensure more effective and targeted management of spending in order to stay within the allocated budgets,' the ministry said in a news release. Quebec noted it spent more than expected in health and social services, education, families and transportation. It spent less on employment and solidarity, housing and municipal affairs, energy, and the environment. The Coalition Avenir Québec has come under fire over budget choices, including its recent decision to slash $570 million from the education network and refusing to allow schools to run on a deficit. The health-care system also saw its budget slashed as the province tries to eliminate a $1.5-billion deficit in the network, leading to thousands of job cuts. Faced with global economic uncertainty, the government expected an $13 billion deficit for 2025-2026, one of the highest on record for Quebec. But Girard maintains he wants to return to a balanced budget within the next five years, even with American President Donald Trump's rollercoaster trade war. Also on Friday, Trump said he was ending all trade talks with Canada. The president imposed 50 per cent tariffs on aluminum and steel, which impacts Quebec's metal workers. As of March 31, the province's debt is 38.6 per cent of its GDP, which the government says is 0.1 per cent lower than projected in its 2025-2026 budget. In April, Quebec's Standard & Poor's credit was lowered and the company said it did not expect new measures to have any meaningful impact on its standing.

‘Stable' Quebec avoids a second credit rating downgrade
‘Stable' Quebec avoids a second credit rating downgrade

Montreal Gazette

time10-06-2025

  • Business
  • Montreal Gazette

‘Stable' Quebec avoids a second credit rating downgrade

Quebec News By QUEBEC — A second credit rating agency has taken a look at the Quebec government's finances and says it is comfortable with the province's debt situation. In a statement issued Tuesday, the Canadian agency DBRS decided to maintain Quebec's credit rating, which determines the costs of borrowing to finance the debt, at AA (low) with a 'stable perspective.' The DBRS decision is the opposite of the decision to lower Quebec's credit rating by another agency, Standard and Poor's, in April. S&P lowered Quebec's rating from AA- to A+. It was the first time in 30 years that Quebec suffered a credit downgrade. It came as a blow to Premier François Legault's government, which was first elected in 2018 promising sound fiscal management. 'Because or the ongoing tariff threat, Morningstar DBRS anticipates some near-term deterioration in Quebec's fiscal and debt metrics, potentially reducing flexibility within its current credit ratings,' DBRS said in a statement. 'However, the slowing pace of expenditure growth and continued commitment to restore fiscal balance, along with the province's large and diversified economy, give us comfort that Quebec can minimize the deterioration in its public finances. 'Despite the near term deterioration, the province remains committed to restoring fiscal balance by 2029-30, consistent with the goal articulated in last year's budget.' In his 2025-2026 budget presented March 25, Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard forecast a $13.6-billion deficit, a historic record. The budget included an annual increase in spending of only 1.7 per cent but record spending on infrastructure projects as a way to counter the effects of an economic downturn sparked by American trade tariffs. S&P based its downgrade on the increase in government spending, including the infrastructure allocation. DBRS takes note of Quebec's approach but remains optimistic. 'As a result of near-term deterioration in the fiscal outlook and a substantial capital investment program, Quebec has relaxed its debt reduction targets. The province plans to reduce net debt to GDP to 35.5 per cent by 2032-33 and 32.5 per cent by 2037-38 (previously 33 per cent and 30 per cent respectively). The agency adds: 'While the ongoing trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on consumer and business confidence and investment intentions, domestic consumption should remain supported by easing monetary policy along with relatively strong labour markets and household savings.' Legault has said if Quebec is hit with full 25-per-cent tariffs on its trade, the province could lose 100,000 to 160,000 jobs.

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