‘Stable' Quebec avoids a second credit rating downgrade
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QUEBEC — A second credit rating agency has taken a look at the Quebec government's finances and says it is comfortable with the province's debt situation.
In a statement issued Tuesday, the Canadian agency DBRS decided to maintain Quebec's credit rating, which determines the costs of borrowing to finance the debt, at AA (low) with a 'stable perspective.'
The DBRS decision is the opposite of the decision to lower Quebec's credit rating by another agency, Standard and Poor's, in April. S&P lowered Quebec's rating from AA- to A+.
It was the first time in 30 years that Quebec suffered a credit downgrade. It came as a blow to Premier François Legault's government, which was first elected in 2018 promising sound fiscal management.
'Because or the ongoing tariff threat, Morningstar DBRS anticipates some near-term deterioration in Quebec's fiscal and debt metrics, potentially reducing flexibility within its current credit ratings,' DBRS said in a statement.
'However, the slowing pace of expenditure growth and continued commitment to restore fiscal balance, along with the province's large and diversified economy, give us comfort that Quebec can minimize the deterioration in its public finances.
'Despite the near term deterioration, the province remains committed to restoring fiscal balance by 2029-30, consistent with the goal articulated in last year's budget.'
In his 2025-2026 budget presented March 25, Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard forecast a $13.6-billion deficit, a historic record. The budget included an annual increase in spending of only 1.7 per cent but record spending on infrastructure projects as a way to counter the effects of an economic downturn sparked by American trade tariffs.
S&P based its downgrade on the increase in government spending, including the infrastructure allocation.
DBRS takes note of Quebec's approach but remains optimistic.
'As a result of near-term deterioration in the fiscal outlook and a substantial capital investment program, Quebec has relaxed its debt reduction targets. The province plans to reduce net debt to GDP to 35.5 per cent by 2032-33 and 32.5 per cent by 2037-38 (previously 33 per cent and 30 per cent respectively).
The agency adds: 'While the ongoing trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on consumer and business confidence and investment intentions, domestic consumption should remain supported by easing monetary policy along with relatively strong labour markets and household savings.'
Legault has said if Quebec is hit with full 25-per-cent tariffs on its trade, the province could lose 100,000 to 160,000 jobs.
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