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Hindustan Times
03-06-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Beyond Likes & Shares: How Probo is Turning Opinions Into Valuable Predictions
In the rapidly evolving era of interactive social media, where virality can distort notions of truth and platforms are often driven by engagement over accuracy, a quiet revolution is unfolding in India. Opinion trading has begun to emerge as a powerful new tool in participatory technology, combining gamification, financial literacy, and civic engagement into a single, user-centric format. Rather than merely being a game of chance, recent research from IIT-Delhi and Evam Law & Policy affirms that opinion trading predominantly requires skill. Users are rewarded not for gut instincts, but for sharp judgment, real-time analysis, and their ability to stay informed. This, combined with the community-driven nature of these platforms, makes opinion trading a compelling case for being recognized as civic tech innovation. Gamification Meets Civic Participation Platforms like Probo are bringing in a new age of engagement, where users don't passively consume the news but participate in it. By predicting the outcomes of real-world events, from sports to the economic landscape, users interact with current affairs in a gamified environment, rewarding accuracy. Unlike social media, which amplifies virality, these platforms incentivize truth. Misinformation is naturally penalized, and incorrect predictions result in financial loss, creating a built-in deterrent against unverified speculation. This structure turns opinion trading into a 'truth market,' where civic participation is not only encouraged but also rewarded. It's no longer about likes or shares; it's about understanding, analyzing and predicting the real-world affairs based on knowledge. Skill vs. Speculation: A Question Answered Critics of opinion trading often conflate it with gambling, overlooking one key distinction: opinion trading is a peer-to-peer market, not a player-versus-house setup. There's no inherent conflict of interest, and no manipulation of outcomes by the platform. Users compete based on their ability to synthesize news, trends, and data, much like fantasy sports, rummy, or even day trading. Research from IIT-Delhi tracked user behavior over time and found that those who remained engaged and informed consistently outperformed others. These weren't lucky guesses. They were informed predictions backed by data consumption and strategic decision-making. The Evam study backed this up with evidence that active users employing strategies like early exits achieved up to a 70% win rate, compared to 42% for passive players. Voluntary Self-Regulation and Consumer Safety Leading platforms like Probo have proactively adopted safety features and guardrails. These include cool-off periods, limits on recharge amounts, prohibitions on credit-based trading, and transparent product design—all intended to promote responsible participation. Moreover, the very structure of opinion trading encourages moderation. Without credit or 'house' incentives, users have limited exposure, and the system naturally filters out unsustainable trading behavior. A Civic-Tech Innovation Waiting to Be Recognized Opinion trading platforms don't just reflect public sentiment—they shape it. As crowds aggregate and assess probabilities, they collectively produce insights that could aid researchers, policymakers, and even journalists. During the pandemic, such platforms often reflected real-time sentiment on vaccine approvals, lockdown extensions, and recovery timelines, frequently ahead of mainstream media. Given the demonstrated civic value and potential for public forecasting, India has an opportunity to lead the world in regulating and nurturing this emerging sector. In the U.S. and U.K., prediction markets are already used to anticipate election outcomes and policy shifts. For India, clear regulation could unlock economic potential, tax revenue, and democratic data tools, while ensuring user protection and platform accountability. Conclusion Opinion trading isn't a digital gamble. It's a modern arena where skill, awareness, and community-driven data converge. As platforms continue to innovate and self-regulate, and as academic research validates their utility, the question is no longer if opinion trading should be recognized as a civic-tech innovation, but how soon. Disclaimer: This article is sponsored content curated by HT Syndication. The inputs and details accounted for in the article do not necessarily reflect those of HT, and HT does not endorse or assume any responsibility for the information provided. Want to get your story featured as above? click here! First Published Date: 03 Jun, 16:34 IST
The Hindu
22-05-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
Opinion Trading Platforms like Probo Thrive on Skill, Reveals Groundbreaking Research
● Gaming Industry Booms: India's online gaming market, valued at USD 4 billion in 2023, is projected to reach USD 7.6 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 14.5%—with real-money games accounting for over 80% of the market share. ● Opinion Trading on the Rise: With nearly 50 million users and annual transactions exceeding USD 6 billion, opinion trading is gaining momentum—yet misconceptions persist. ● New Study Breaks Myths: Using empirical testing and real-world platform data, the report concludes that opinion trading is a skill-dominant format, not governed by chance. A study conducted by Evam Law & Policy has concluded that opinion trading is a game of skill. The Question of Skill in Opinion Trading Study, draws upon gameplay data from three leading Indian opinion trading platforms to present robust statistical and behavioral evidence that opinion trading demands informed decision-making, cognitive adaptability, and strategic execution. This study is backed by some reputed personalities including IIT Delhi Professor Dr. Saptarshi Mukherjee, Dean of Vinayaka Mission's Law School Dr. Ananth Padmanabhan, and has been reviewed by Dr. Justice Balbir Singh Chauhan - retired as a justice of the Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the 21st Law Commission of India. This comes at a time when the Indian gaming industry is seeing exponential growth. With over 568 million gamers, India is the second-largest gaming community in the world. Real Money Games (RMGs) dominate this space, and new formats like opinion trading have already reached impressive scale, USD 120 million in projected revenues for FY 2024–25 and backing from over 35 global investors. Yet, the report observes misconceptions that persist around opinion trading, often equating it to games of chance or speculative betting. To address this, the study applied three key statistical tests commonly used to determine skill presence in online games: Key Findings from the study: ● Persistence of Skill: Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo , win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance. ● Exemplary Skill: Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant. ● Learning Curve & Experience Gap: Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo , median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms. ● Strategic Use of Exit Tools Drives Higher Win Rates: Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. To summarize, players with exit strategies won 70% of the time, vs just 42% among those without. This demonstrates the importance of active, tactical engagement in opinion trading. ● Experience Leads to Sophisticated Market Behavior: The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies. ● Strategic Behavior: Skilled players were found to diversify trades, hedge across price points, and time their exits. For instance, users placing orders across 12+ price points recovered over 80% of their investment on average, reflecting active market reading, analysis and informed decision making. Many players also seem to use a combination of these strategies, with them placing multiple orders and exiting before the conclusion of the event. Such players on Probo have a win rate of 63%, again demonstrating their strategic behavior to maximize returns. About the findings of the report, Ashish Garg, Co-founder and CTO of Probo, said, 'This report is a significant step forward in establishing a data-backed understanding of opinion trading. For years, we've seen firsthand how our top users display a deep grasp of probability, real-time decision-making, and strategic foresight. We're glad that independent researchers have validated what our internal data has long shown—success in opinion trading is built on skill, not luck.' Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner - Evam Law & Policy shared, 'Opinion trading sits at the intersection of market-based reasoning and digital gameplay. This study provides much-needed empirical clarity to an emerging format that has often been misunderstood. The evidence shows that these platforms reward strategy, experience, deep knowledge, and skill development. Importantly, this study offers a crucial policy contribution amid ongoing debates over the legal classification of emerging digital games. Under Indian law, games of skill enjoy protection and are treated differently from games of chance. By rigorously applying the 'predominance test', recognized by Indian courts, the study affirms that opinion trading falls firmly within the skill-dominant category.' As the Indian gaming sector evolves, this study offers a foundation for nuanced regulation, informed public discourse, and better industry practices. To access the full study- click here 'This article is part of the sponsored content programme.'
Hindustan Times
20-05-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
A Study Reaffirms Opinion Trading on Platforms like Probo is a Game of Skill
Gaming Industry Booms : India's online gaming market, valued at USD 4 billion in 2023, is projected to reach USD 7.6 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 14.5%—with real-money games accounting for over 80% of the market share. Opinion Trading on the Rise : With nearly 50 million users and annual transactions exceeding USD 6 billion, opinion trading is gaining momentum—yet misconceptions persist. New Study Breaks Myths: Using empirical testing and real-world platform data, the report concludes that opinion trading is a skill-dominant format, not governed by chance. A study conducted by Evam Law & Policy has concluded that opinion trading is a game of skill. The Question of Skill in Opinion Trading Study, draws upon gameplay data from three leading Indian opinion trading platforms to present robust statistical and behavioral evidence that opinion trading demands informed decision-making, cognitive adaptability, and strategic execution. This study is backed by some reputed personalities including IIT Delhi Professor Dr. Saptarshi Mukherjee, Dean of Vinayaka Mission's Law School Dr. Ananth Padmanabhan, and has been reviewed by Dr. Justice Balbir Singh Chauhan - retired as a justice of the Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the 21st Law Commission of India. This comes at a time when the Indian gaming industry is seeing exponential growth. With over 568 million gamers, India is the second-largest gaming community in the world. Real Money Games (RMGs) dominate this space, and new formats like opinion trading have already reached impressive scale, USD 120 million in projected revenues for FY 2024–25 and backing from over 35 global investors. Yet, the report observes misconceptions that persist around opinion trading, often equating it to games of chance or speculative betting. To address this, the study applied three key statistical tests commonly used to determine skill presence in online games: Key Findings from the study: Persistence of Skill : Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo, win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance. : Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo, win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance. Exemplary Skill : Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant. : Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant. Learning Curve & Experience Gap : Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo, median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms. : Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo, median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms. Strategic Use of Exit Tools Drives Higher Win Rates : Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. To summarize, players with exit strategies won 70% of the time, vs just 42% among those without. This demonstrates the importance of active, tactical engagement in opinion trading. : Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. Experience Leads to Sophisticated Market Behavior : The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies. : The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies. Strategic Behavior: Skilled players were found to diversify trades, hedge across price points, and time their exits. For instance, users placing orders across 12+ price points recovered over 80% of their investment on average, reflecting active market reading, analysis and informed decision making. Many players also seem to use a combination of these strategies, with them placing multiple orders and exiting before the conclusion of the event. Such players on Probo have a win rate of 63%, again demonstrating their strategic behavior to maximize returns. About the findings of the report, Ashish Garg, Co-founder and CTO of Probo, said, 'This report is a significant step forward in establishing a data-backed understanding of opinion trading. For years, we've seen firsthand how our top users display a deep grasp of probability, real-time decision-making, and strategic foresight. We're glad that independent researchers have validated what our internal data has long shown—success in opinion trading is built on skill, not luck." Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner - Evam Law & Policy shared, "Opinion trading sits at the intersection of market-based reasoning and digital gameplay. This study provides much-needed empirical clarity to an emerging format that has often been misunderstood. The evidence shows that these platforms reward strategy, experience, deep knowledge, and skill development. Importantly, this study offers a crucial policy contribution amid ongoing debates over the legal classification of emerging digital games. Under Indian law, games of skill enjoy protection and are treated differently from games of chance. By rigorously applying the "predominance test', recognized by Indian courts, the study affirms that opinion trading falls firmly within the skill-dominant category.' As the Indian gaming sector evolves, this study offers a foundation for nuanced regulation, informed public discourse, and better industry practices. To access the full study- click here Disclaimer: This article is sponsored content curated by HT Syndication. The inputs and details accounted for in the article do not necessarily reflect those of HT, and HT does not endorse or assume any responsibility for the information provided. Want to get your story featured as above? click here! First Published Date: 20 May, 15:17 IST
Business Upturn
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Upturn
A Study Reaffirms Opinion Trading on Platforms like Probo Is a Game of Skill
By Business Wire Published on May 19, 2025, 16:30 IST A study conducted by Evam Law & Policy has concluded that opinion trading is a game of skill. The Question of Skill in Opinion Trading Study , draws upon gameplay data from three leading Indian opinion trading platforms to present robust statistical and behavioral evidence that opinion trading demands informed decision-making, cognitive adaptability, and strategic execution. This study is backed by some reputed personalities including IIT Delhi Professor Dr. Saptarshi Mukherjee, Dean of Vinayaka Mission's Law School Dr. Ananth Padmanabhan, and has been reviewed by Dr. Justice Balbir Singh Chauhan – retired as a justice of the Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the 21st Law Commission of India. This comes at a time when the Indian gaming industry is seeing exponential growth. With over 568 million gamers, India is the second-largest gaming community in the world. Real Money Games (RMGs) dominate this space, and new formats like opinion trading have already reached impressive scale, USD 120 million in projected revenues for FY 2024–25 and backing from over 35 global investors. Yet, the report observes misconceptions that persist around opinion trading, often equating it to games of chance or speculative betting. To address this, the study applied three key statistical tests commonly used to determine skill presence in online games: Key Findings from the study: Persistence of Skill : Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo, win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance. : Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo, win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance. Exemplary Skill : Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant. : Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant. Learning Curve & Experience Gap : Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo, median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms. : Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo, median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms. Strategic Use of Exit Tools Drives Higher Win Rates : Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. To summarize, players with exit strategies won 70% of the time, vs just 42% among those without. This demonstrates the importance of active, tactical engagement in opinion trading. : Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. Experience Leads to Sophisticated Market Behavior : The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies. : The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies. Strategic Behavior: Skilled players were found to diversify trades, hedge across price points, and time their exits. For instance, users placing orders across 12+ price points recovered over 80% of their investment on average, reflecting active market reading, analysis and informed decision making. Many players also seem to use a combination of these strategies, with them placing multiple orders and exiting before the conclusion of the event. Such players on Probo have a win rate of 63%, again demonstrating their strategic behavior to maximize returns. About the findings of the report, Ashish Garg, Co-founder and CTO of Probo, said, 'This report is a significant step forward in establishing a data-backed understanding of opinion trading. For years, we've seen firsthand how our top users display a deep grasp of probability, real-time decision-making, and strategic foresight. We're glad that independent researchers have validated what our internal data has long shown—success in opinion trading is built on skill, not luck.' Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner – Evam Law & Policy shared, 'Opinion trading sits at the intersection of market-based reasoning and digital gameplay. This study provides much-needed empirical clarity to an emerging format that has often been misunderstood. The evidence shows that these platforms reward strategy, experience, deep knowledge, and skill development. Importantly, this study offers a crucial policy contribution amid ongoing debates over the legal classification of emerging digital games. Under Indian law, games of skill enjoy protection and are treated differently from games of chance. By rigorously applying the 'predominance test', recognized by Indian courts, the study affirms that opinion trading falls firmly within the skill-dominant category.' As the Indian gaming sector evolves, this study offers a foundation for nuanced regulation, informed public discourse, and better industry practices. To access the full study- click here Disclaimer: The above press release comes to you under an arrangement with Business Wire. Business Upturn takes no editorial responsibility for the same. Business Wire is an American company that disseminates full-text press releases from thousands of companies and organizations worldwide to news media, financial markets, disclosure systems, investors, information web sites, databases, bloggers, social networks and other audiences.
