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Forbes
4 days ago
- Sport
- Forbes
Dodgers Shohei Ohtani Leads Wide Open NL MVP Chase
We're over two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it's time to take my first looks at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. Earlier this week, I looked at the AL and NL Cy Young races. Now it's on to the MVP chases, starting with the AL yesterday, and now the NL.. If you're new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It's a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they 'should have' produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That's expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score - 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter's 'Tru' Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their 'Tru' Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in 'Tru' Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA). While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc.. This analysis goes through games played on July 31, and includes all players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title as of that date. This does not include Diamondbacks' 2B Ketel Marte, who didn't qualify then, but does now. He was on my ballot last year and could be again this year. It also does not include Phillies' DH Kyle Schwarber (14.5 'Tru' Player Runs Above Average), who is starting to get some award buzz and is currently #11 on this 10-man list. He's a bomber for sure, but gets dinged big-time for his lack of complementary skills. It should be noted that this is shaping as one of the wildest league MVP battles in recent memory. Let's get to it. Reds' SS Elly De La Cruz (14.8 TPRAA) is really good already, but is only scratching the surface of his potential. His walk rate has begun to improve, and the rough edges have begun to be sanded off of his complementary defensive and baserunning skills. That said, he's been fortunate across all batted ball types, and 'should be' hitting .253-.332-.434, well below his actual current level. It's been a nightmarish season in Atlanta, but Braves' 1B Matt Olson (16.4 TPRAA) hasn't let it affect him. He's been incredibly unlucky on line drives this season, batting only .573 AVG-.760 SLG for an 81 Unadjusted Liner Contact Score, way below his adjusted 112 mark. This has cost him 36 points of SLG thus far. Marlins' LF Kyle Stowers (16.9 TPRAA) has been one of the first half's most unexpected breakthroughs. While he's clearly a bat-first guy, he's a respectable corner outfield defender. And the power is real - his 250 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score trails only Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Schwarber among players we'll discuss today. Padres' SS Manny Machado (19.8 TPRAA) remains one of the very best all-around players in the game. He hits his fly balls, liners and grounders materially harder than league average, putting up solid power numbers in a pitcher-friendly park without maintaining a particularly high fly ball rate. His defense might not be quite what it used to be, but it's still plenty good enough for him to remain at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. Cubs' RF Kyle Tucker (21.4 TPRAA) has stepped into a leadership role for a quality Cub squad in his free agent walk year. Tucker does not crush his fly balls - his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is roughly league average at 103. He compensates with plenty of fly ball volume,and plenty of contact, period. He had comfortably more walks (74) than whiffs (63) through July 31. #5 - RF Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) - 22.2 TPRAA - Carroll is one of the more unique players in the game today. 20-triple guys don't grow on trees in the modern era, and he's making a strong run at that benchmark. But despite his considerable speed, it's his power rather than his on-base ability that is at the forefront of his offensive game. His 216 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is 4th highest among the 10 players on this ballot. Factors working against him taking it to still another level are a low walk rate and a fairly extreme grounder-pulling tendency. His defense is well above average on an outfield corner, and more than playable in center field. #4 - CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) - 26.5 TPRAA - Crow-Armstrong is currently considered by many to be the NL MVP frontrunner. I see him as squarely in the mix, but sitting a bit off of the pace. The defensive and baserunning value he brings is without peer in the senior circuit, but offensively he's only a slightly above average player after adjusting for batted ball authority. He's an extreme pull hitter, and he mishits a lot of balls, especially in the air. Only the #1 and 3 players among this Top 10 have hit more 105+ mph fly balls than Crow-Armstrong, but his average fly ball exit speed of 91.8 mph is easily dead last among them. His poor K/BB profile also needs some work. We may be looking a very early career offensive peak from Crow-Armstrong. #3 - RF Juan Soto (Mets) - 28.8 TPRAA - Huh, what? Mr. Non All Star guy? Yup. Soto has been ridiculously unlucky on balls in play this season, with both his actual Unadjusted Fly Ball (248) and Line Drive (94) Contact Scores way below their comparative adjusted marks of 344 and 119. That 344 mark is higher than even Aaron Judge's, and his 100.4 mph average fly ball exit speed is 2nd only to the #1 guy below. Soto 'should be' batting .268-.399-.567, well above his current levels. All that said, he cuts into his offensive value with poor defensive and baserunning performances. Don't be surprised by a furious offensive onslaught from Soto down the stretch. #2 - RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) - 29.9 TPRAA - Very quietly, Tatis has raised the floor of his all-around game considerably without materially compromising its ceiling. He has gradually improved his K/BB profile, and can now work an at bat with the best of them. Machado is the only other player in this Top 10 whose average fly ball, line drive and grounder exit speeds all exceed 90 mph. Like Machado, Tatis sprays the ball to all fields, even on the ground, another reason he can be depended upon to hit for a solid batting average, even while playing his home games in a pitchers' park. On top of it all, he has emerged as one of the game's finest defensive right fielders. #1 - DH Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) - 33.8 TPRAA - I can hear the question already…..how can DH Ohtani be #1 while DH Schwarber is #11? Couple reasons. First, Ohtani is a great baserunner in addition to being a great hitter, while Schwarber is, to be kind, not. Secondly, Ohtani has been very unlucky on balls in play this season - his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is a scary high 396, well above even his strong unadjusted mark of 328. (Schwarber is at 409 Unadjusted, 311 Adjusted). Ohtani's 100.6 average fly ball exit speed is the highest in MLB. Ohtani 'should be" hitting .274-.374-.616, even better than his gaudy present numbers. Also, I have made an executive decision to NOT include his pitching numbers at this time. I'm measuring distance above league average in this exercise, and I refuse to penalize this guy even by a fraction of a point as he tries to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. Presently, Fangraphs WAR has Crow-Armstrong (5.7 WAR), Ohtani (4.8) and Tatis Jr. (4.3) 1-2-3 in the NL MVP race.
USA Today
5 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Boston Red Sox reach $130 million extension with star rookie Roman Anthony
The Boston Red Sox reached an agreement to keep one of the top young stars in baseball in town for the foreseeable future. The Red Sox agreed to an eight-year contract extension with 21-year-old outfielder Roman Anthony on Aug. 6, according to USA TODAY Sports' Bob Nightengale. The extension is worth $130 million and will keep Anthony under contract through his age-30 season. The deal includes a club option for the 2034 season and with incentives can max out at $230 million. Anthony will have the opportunity to hit the open market at his age 31 season in 2035, giving him another chance to cash in on a major deal. The Boston Red Sox lock up outfielder Roman Anthony to an eight-year, $130 million contract that begins in 2026. It raises the bar from the 8-year, $111 million contract Corbin Carroll signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks as a rookie in 2023. @JeffPassan on it. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Anthony's contract is the third largest handed out to a player with less than one year of MLB service time. Seattle's Julio Rodriguez signed a $210 million extension in 2022 during his Rookie of the Year campaign. Anthony ― who was the No. 79 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida ― made his MLB debut against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 9 after opening the season as the top prospect in baseball. He has a .283/.400/.428 slash line with two home runs and 19 RBI in 46 MLB games. His .400 on base percentage leads all American League rookies. Roman Anthony stats Here's a look at Anthony's stats during his rookie season with the Red Sox. Anthony is currently seventh in the MLB and fourth in the American League with a 1.6 WAR, according to Fangraphs. He is the second-best rookie behind teammate Carlos Narváez (2.5 WAR).
Forbes
5 days ago
- Sport
- Forbes
Despite Recent Injury Absence, Aaron Judge Retains Lead In AL MVP Race
We're over two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it's time to take my first looks at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. Earlier this week, I looked at the AL and NL Cy Young races. Now it's the MVP chases, starting with the AL today. If you're new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It's a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they 'should have' produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That's expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score - 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter's 'Tru' Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their 'Tru' Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in 'Tru' Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA). While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc.. This analysis goes through games played on July 31, and all hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title as of that date were considered. That excludes the Rangers' Corey Seager, who didn't qualify then, but does now. He could be a down-ballot factor as the season continues. Let's get to it. Mariners' CF Julio Rodriguez (10.3 'Tru' Players Runs Above Average) noses out Royals' 3B Maikel Garcia (10.2 TPRAA) for the last spot on this interim ballot. His bat has started to heat up, and though it's only been a tad above average (104 'Tru' Production+), he supplements it with considerable defensive and baserunning value. He retains an extreme all-around ceiling. Orioles' SS Gunnar Henderson (10.7 TPRAA) is so good that he still deserves a spot on an MVP ballot during an off year when he's lost some time to injury. He has struggled to elevate the baseball with authority this season (a pedestrian 89.5 mph average fly ball exit speed), perhaps due to lingering effects from his early-season intercostal strain. How about the incredible improvements made by Red Sox' CF Ceddanne Rafaela (14.3 TPRAA) this season? He now appears to have a plan at the plate, and while his K/BB profile still needs work, it has allowed his considerable offensive talents to manifest themselves more often. That said, it's in the field and on the bases where he is a true force. He's right there with Rodriguez when it comes to all-around upside. Twins' CF Byron Buxton (16.9 TPRAA) has also spent material time sidelined by injury this season. When healthy, he's been extremely productive. He elevates the baseball often (17.8 degree average launch angle) and hard - his 226 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is 2nd only to Aaron Judge among players we'll discuss today. His defense isn't quite Rodriguez/Rafaela caliber, but it's pretty good. Guardians' 3B Jose Ramirez (17.6 TPRAA) is once again having an exceptional all-around season. His strikeout rate is very low for a power hitter, and he adds defensive and baserunning value beyond his value with the bat. He doesn't hit the ball all that hard, however, especially in the air (72 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). He compensates with considerable fly ball volume. #5 - 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) - 23.9 TPRAA - Guerrero has been very unlucky on balls in play this season, and this has materially understated his offensive impact. He's only hitting .320 AVG-.800 SLG on fly balls this season (97 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), but 'should be' hitting .388 AVG-1.064 SLG (160 Adjusted) in the air. And he's capable of even more damage than that - he absolutely wrecks his line drives and grounders relative to the league. He's pretty much a bat-only guy, bringing little defensive and baserunning value to the table, but he can carry a team. #4 - C Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays) - 27.6 TPRAA - Here is today's big surprise - along with the dead heat he's currently in with the catcher below who is arguably the mainstream MVP favorite at present. Kirk has been a much better defensive receiver than Cal Raleigh this season, though he has carried a significantly lesser workload. And offensively they are very close qualitatively. Raleigh will be discussed below, but Kirk never strikes out, hits a ton of line drives and uses the entire field. He's been unfortunate on all batted ball types, and 'should be' hitting .308-.367-.477 this season. Yes, Raleigh has all those bombs, but can you believe his edge in average exit speed is a merely fractional 91.9 to 91.8 mph? #3 - C Cal Raleigh (Mariners) - 27.6 TPRAA - Raleigh was on my year-end MVP ballot in 2023 and 2024, largely on the strength of incredible defensive performances. This year, his defense has been solid but not nearly at the same level. But of course, there have been all those home runs. Well, he's gotten a bit ahead of himself in that department. His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact score is 'only' 218, behind Buxton and not far ahead of Riley Greene's 212. Raleigh hits scads of fly balls (and pop ups), with a stratospheric 25.3 degree average launch angle. He 'should be' hitting .234-.339-.527, not much better than his projected 2024 numbers. There are lots of yellow/orange lights in his profile - this is simply a mix that cannot endure for very long. #2 - SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) - 32.4 TPRAA - Last year's MVP runnerup is having a followup season that is flying way under the radar. His power numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as his competition, due in large part to his expansive home park. He's only batting .255 AVG-.773 SLG on fly balls (78 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) despute a 94.6 mph average fly ball exit speed that trails only Judge, Raleigh and Buxton among players we'll discuss today. And no American Leaguer delivers the defensive and baserunning value that Witt brings to the table. #1 - RF Aaron Judge (Yankees) - 47.1 TPRAA - Despite missing considerable time with an elbow injury, Judge is still running comfortably ahead in the AL MVP chase. But even Judge is not as good as the numbers he's been compiling this season. He is hitting an otherworldly .875 AVG-1.179 SLG on line drives (192 Unadjusted Liner Contact Score) - he should be hitting .686 AVG-.938 SLG (119 Adjusted) on liners. Now that adjusted mark is still better than anyone we'll discuss today, but it inflates his average considerably, actually making him look like a .400 hitter for a spell,. He strikes out too much for that, and 'should be' hitting .293-.406-.653 to date. Currently, Fangraphs WAR has Judge (7.1 WAR), Raleigh (6.4) and Witt (5.2) ranked 1-2-3.
Newsweek
5 days ago
- Sport
- Newsweek
Yankees Could Crash Out of Playoff Race If They Don't Get Act Together: Insider
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. To say the New York Yankees are in a slump would be quite an understatement. With the Bronx Bombers' tailspin continuing into a third month, with a record of 25-31 since the calendar turned to June after starting the season 35-22 — and losing all four games in August so far — the defending American League champions may be in danger of missing the playoffs altogether. In fact, according to one top MLB insider, that is exactly what the Yankees have to look forward to, if they fail to start playing better baseball in a hurry. NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 22: Carlos Rodón #55 of the New York Yankees reacts during the sixth inning of the game against the Texas Rangers at Yankee Stadium on May 22, 2025 in... NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 22: Carlos Rodón #55 of the New York Yankees reacts during the sixth inning of the game against the Texas Rangers at Yankee Stadium on May 22, 2025 in New York City. More"Could they be the odd team out come October in the American League? I believe they can be," said longtime baseball reporter and expert Ken Rosenthal, on the "Foul Territory" podcast Tuesday. "They need to start playing better, and they need to start doing it quickly." But can they? After their second walk-off loss in their last four games Monday, the Yankees entered Tuesday having lost four in a row and eight of their last 12. In July, the New York pitching staff ranked 28th in MLB with a 5.65 ERA, and over their first four games played in August their staff ERA is a bloated 7.15. Their 62 errors are eighth-most in MLB. The Yankees are still hitting. Their 133 runs in July were the second-most in baseball, and New York's team OPS of .795 was third-best. But the offense has not been enough to overcome the pitching and defensive woes. On May 28, the Yankees led the AL East by seven games over the second-place Tampa Bay Rays. Their .636 winning percentage was third-best in MLB. They had an eight-game advantage over the Toronto Blue Jays and led the Boston Red Sox by 9 1/2 games. More MLB: Aaron Boone 'Losing Grip' as Yankees Melt Down in Toronto; 'Close to Dead Day' Ahead of Tuesday's MLB action, the Red Sox had made up all of that ground and then some, leading the now-third place Yankees by 2 1/2 games in the wild card standings. The Blue Jays occupied first in the division, topping New York by 5 1/2. But all is not lost quite yet. According to Fangraphs, the Yankees on Tuesday held an 85.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. "So, yes, the Yankees still look good for the playoffs, but I'm not even so sure that is secure the way they're playing," Rosenthal said on the podcast. "They're looking at the fifth seed right now and maybe the sixth, the way the Red Sox are coming." Of course, at the end of May, the Yankees had 97.2 percent Fangraph odds of making the playoffs, a virtual lock. That means their playoff chances have plunged by more than 12 percent since their slump in the standings began. More MLB: Aaron Boone's 'Laissez-Faire Attitude' Ripped After Yankees' Humiliating Sweep
Hamilton Spectator
01-08-2025
- Sport
- Hamilton Spectator
Who is Shane Bieber? Blue Jays' trade for former Cy Young winner not without risk
The frenzied final hours before the MLB trade deadline have brought a fresh face to the Blue Jays : former American League Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. Bieber, 30, will bolster the Jays rotation as they hope to continue their run as one of the best teams in baseball . But the trade with the Cleveland Guardians is not without risk — Bieber has not made a major league start since April 2024 and is expected to make his return from Tommy John surgery over the next few weeks. Here's what fans should know about him. Bieber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since his major-league debut with the Guardians in 2018. Between 2018 and 2023, he was 20.7 wins above replacement (WAR), according to Fangraphs, ranked seventh in baseball among starting pitchers. His best stretch came in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when he led baseball with a 1.63 ERA and 122 strikeouts. He won the AL Cy Young Award, beating out Minnesota's Kenta Maeda and Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu. Bieber started another 31 games in 2022, posting a 2.88 ERA, and had a 3.80 ERA across 21 starts in 2023. Bieber made only two starts in 2024 before being shut down with elbow pain and undergoing Tommy John surgery. He made his first rehab appearance on May 31 this year and, after a brief setback, worked his way up to a four-inning appearance in Double-A earlier this week. Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt said Bieber felt 'great' after the start and his velocity 'looked good.' Bieber was expected to rejoin Cleveland's rotation in August. While recovering from Tommy John surgery, Bieber signed a one-year, $10 million (U.S.) deal with the Guardians last winter. It includes a $16-million player option for 2026, with a $4-million buyout. The Blue Jays will owe Bieber roughly $3 million for the rest of the season, and he is expected to decline his player option, which ups his price tag to around $7 million for two months of the regular season, plus the post-season. The Jays sent right-handed pitching prospect Khal Stephen to Cleveland. The Jays drafted him in the second round in last year's draft out of Mississippi State University and he was considered the team's fifth-best prospect. Fangraphs also lists Stephen as the 80th-best prospect in baseball. With pitching depth in the organization — including right-hander Trey Yesavage, ranked 61st in baseball by Fangraphs, and lefty Ricky Tiedemann, ranked 94th — the Jays may have been more willing to part with one of their top prospects. Toronto's starting rotation is more stable now than it was a month ago. Max Scherzer is back from the injured list — his thumb injury is no longer a pressing concern — and Eric Lauer has demonstrated he is a viable starter , averaging more than five innings and fewer than two runs across his last eight appearances. But the team is still in need of pitching help, both as depth and in the bullpen. The Blue Jays rotation ranks 24th in baseball in ERA, 20th in innings pitched and 25th in Fangraphs WAR. Bieber comes with risk, but his upside would help Toronto. New Blue Jays pitcher Shane Bieber embraces connection to Justin Bieber: 'I've been hearing it since college' Shane Bieber is not related to Justin Bieber, the Canadian pop superstar — although they have been confused before. Topps accidentally referred to Bieber as Justin on his 2019 baseball card. 'Is it too late to say sorry?' Topps tweeted in response. Is it too late to say sorry? On players' weekend in 2018 and 2019, Bieber wore the nickname 'NOT JUSTIN' on the back of his jersey. The Jays have already embraced Bieber's famous counterpart. Shortly after the trade was officially announced, the team posted a photo of Justin Bieber in a Blue Jays jersey to X.
