Despite Recent Injury Absence, Aaron Judge Retains Lead In AL MVP Race

Forbes

4 days ago

We're over two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it's time to take my first looks at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. Earlier this week, I looked at the AL and NL Cy Young races. Now it's the MVP chases, starting with the AL today.
If you're new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It's a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they 'should have' produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That's expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score - 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter's 'Tru' Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their 'Tru' Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in 'Tru' Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..
This analysis goes through games played on July 31, and all hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title as of that date were considered. That excludes the Rangers' Corey Seager, who didn't qualify then, but does now. He could be a down-ballot factor as the season continues. Let's get to it.
Mariners' CF Julio Rodriguez (10.3 'Tru' Players Runs Above Average) noses out Royals' 3B Maikel Garcia (10.2 TPRAA) for the last spot on this interim ballot. His bat has started to heat up, and though it's only been a tad above average (104 'Tru' Production+), he supplements it with considerable defensive and baserunning value. He retains an extreme all-around ceiling. Orioles' SS Gunnar Henderson (10.7 TPRAA) is so good that he still deserves a spot on an MVP ballot during an off year when he's lost some time to injury. He has struggled to elevate the baseball with authority this season (a pedestrian 89.5 mph average fly ball exit speed), perhaps due to lingering effects from his early-season intercostal strain. How about the incredible improvements made by Red Sox' CF Ceddanne Rafaela (14.3 TPRAA) this season? He now appears to have a plan at the plate, and while his K/BB profile still needs work, it has allowed his considerable offensive talents to manifest themselves more often. That said, it's in the field and on the bases where he is a true force. He's right there with Rodriguez when it comes to all-around upside.
Twins' CF Byron Buxton (16.9 TPRAA) has also spent material time sidelined by injury this season. When healthy, he's been extremely productive. He elevates the baseball often (17.8 degree average launch angle) and hard - his 226 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is 2nd only to Aaron Judge among players we'll discuss today. His defense isn't quite Rodriguez/Rafaela caliber, but it's pretty good. Guardians' 3B Jose Ramirez (17.6 TPRAA) is once again having an exceptional all-around season. His strikeout rate is very low for a power hitter, and he adds defensive and baserunning value beyond his value with the bat. He doesn't hit the ball all that hard, however, especially in the air (72 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). He compensates with considerable fly ball volume.
#5 - 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) - 23.9 TPRAA - Guerrero has been very unlucky on balls in play this season, and this has materially understated his offensive impact. He's only hitting .320 AVG-.800 SLG on fly balls this season (97 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), but 'should be' hitting .388 AVG-1.064 SLG (160 Adjusted) in the air. And he's capable of even more damage than that - he absolutely wrecks his line drives and grounders relative to the league. He's pretty much a bat-only guy, bringing little defensive and baserunning value to the table, but he can carry a team.
#4 - C Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays) - 27.6 TPRAA - Here is today's big surprise - along with the dead heat he's currently in with the catcher below who is arguably the mainstream MVP favorite at present. Kirk has been a much better defensive receiver than Cal Raleigh this season, though he has carried a significantly lesser workload. And offensively they are very close qualitatively. Raleigh will be discussed below, but Kirk never strikes out, hits a ton of line drives and uses the entire field. He's been unfortunate on all batted ball types, and 'should be' hitting .308-.367-.477 this season. Yes, Raleigh has all those bombs, but can you believe his edge in average exit speed is a merely fractional 91.9 to 91.8 mph?
#3 - C Cal Raleigh (Mariners) - 27.6 TPRAA - Raleigh was on my year-end MVP ballot in 2023 and 2024, largely on the strength of incredible defensive performances. This year, his defense has been solid but not nearly at the same level. But of course, there have been all those home runs. Well, he's gotten a bit ahead of himself in that department. His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact score is 'only' 218, behind Buxton and not far ahead of Riley Greene's 212. Raleigh hits scads of fly balls (and pop ups), with a stratospheric 25.3 degree average launch angle. He 'should be' hitting .234-.339-.527, not much better than his projected 2024 numbers. There are lots of yellow/orange lights in his profile - this is simply a mix that cannot endure for very long.
#2 - SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) - 32.4 TPRAA - Last year's MVP runnerup is having a followup season that is flying way under the radar. His power numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as his competition, due in large part to his expansive home park. He's only batting .255 AVG-.773 SLG on fly balls (78 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) despute a 94.6 mph average fly ball exit speed that trails only Judge, Raleigh and Buxton among players we'll discuss today. And no American Leaguer delivers the defensive and baserunning value that Witt brings to the table.
#1 - RF Aaron Judge (Yankees) - 47.1 TPRAA - Despite missing considerable time with an elbow injury, Judge is still running comfortably ahead in the AL MVP chase. But even Judge is not as good as the numbers he's been compiling this season. He is hitting an otherworldly .875 AVG-1.179 SLG on line drives (192 Unadjusted Liner Contact Score) - he should be hitting .686 AVG-.938 SLG (119 Adjusted) on liners. Now that adjusted mark is still better than anyone we'll discuss today, but it inflates his average considerably, actually making him look like a .400 hitter for a spell,. He strikes out too much for that, and 'should be' hitting .293-.406-.653 to date.
Currently, Fangraphs WAR has Judge (7.1 WAR), Raleigh (6.4) and Witt (5.2) ranked 1-2-3.