9 hours ago
Brazil Economists' Shifting Calls Presage Thriller Rate Decision
On the eve of Brazil's interest rate decision this week, XP's Chief Economist Caio Megale agonized over data and policymaker speeches before switching his forecast to a hold from a quarter-point rise. Poring over the same details, ASA economist Leonardo Costa went the opposite way, ditching his bet on steady borrowing costs and calling for a hike instead.
Those last-minute changes — far from being isolated cases — highlight the tension gripping Brazil-watchers in financial districts from Wall Street to Faria Lima as they rack their brains before Wednesday's announcement. As of now, 19 of 31 analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect the central bank to pause its tightening cycle at 14.75%, while the remaining 12 forecast a rise to 15%.
