Brazil Economists' Shifting Calls Presage Thriller Rate Decision
On the eve of Brazil's interest rate decision this week, XP's Chief Economist Caio Megale agonized over data and policymaker speeches before switching his forecast to a hold from a quarter-point rise. Poring over the same details, ASA economist Leonardo Costa went the opposite way, ditching his bet on steady borrowing costs and calling for a hike instead.
Those last-minute changes — far from being isolated cases — highlight the tension gripping Brazil-watchers in financial districts from Wall Street to Faria Lima as they rack their brains before Wednesday's announcement. As of now, 19 of 31 analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect the central bank to pause its tightening cycle at 14.75%, while the remaining 12 forecast a rise to 15%.
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CNET
2 hours ago
- CNET
Refi Rates Dip Ahead of Today's Fed Decision: Mortgage Refinance Rates on June 18, 2025
Average mortgage refinance rates have been volleying between 6.5% and 7% as fears of both higher inflation and an economic slowdown play tug-of-war with financial markets. Overall, rates are too high for most homeowners to save money from refinancing. After three interest rate cuts last year, the Federal Reserve has left rates unchanged in 2025 to assess the economic fallout from President Trump's policies on trade, immigration and government spending. While the Fed is expected to resume lowering interest rates this summer, a major refinancing boom is unlikely if average rates stay above 6% — which most economists and housing market experts predict. However, if you're looking to change the length of your loan or switch to a different type of mortgage, refinancing might still be something to consider. Keep in mind that mortgage refinance rates change daily based on a range of economic and political factors. For expert predictions on where rates might be headed, check out our weekly mortgage rate forecast. When mortgage rates start to fall, be ready to take advantage. Experts recommend shopping around and comparing multiple offers to get the lowest rate. Enter your information here to get a custom quote from one of CNET's partner lenders. About these rates: Bankrate's tool features rates from partner lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates. Refinance rate news At the start of 2025, many expected inflation to keep cooling down and the Fed to cut interest rates, which would have gradually lowered mortgage refinance rates. However, stronger-than-expected inflation and uncertainty about Trump's economic policies have changed those predictions. Even with some brief dips, mortgage rates and overall financing costs have remained stubbornly high. Investors are concerned that the president's plans for widespread tariffs, mass deportations and tax cuts could significantly increase the government's debt and fuel inflation while also driving up unemployment. Refinance rate forecast for 2025 Most housing forecasts still call for a modest decline in mortgage rates by the end of the year, with average 30-year fixed rates potentially edging below 6.5%. But even when the central bank resumes policy easing, experts say homeowners shouldn't expect rates to fall in tandem with the Fed's benchmark federal funds rate. While the central bank's policy decisions influence how much consumers pay to borrow, the Fed doesn't directly control the mortgage market. For refinance rates to fall meaningfully, we'd likely need to see several Fed cuts coupled with clearer signs of a slowing economy, like cooler inflation or higher unemployment. It usually takes time for these broader interest rate adjustments to show up in the rates lenders then offer to consumers. What to know about refinancing When you refinance your mortgage, you take out another home loan that pays off your initial mortgage. With a traditional refinance, your new home loan will have a different term and/or interest rate. With a cash-out refinance, you'll tap into your equity with a new loan that's bigger than your existing mortgage balance, allowing you to pocket the difference in cash. Refinancing can be a great financial move if you score a low rate or can pay off your home loan in less time, but consider whether it's the right choice for you. Reducing your interest rate by 1% or more is an incentive to refinance, allowing you to cut your monthly payment significantly. But refinancing your mortgage isn't free. Since you're taking out a whole new home loan, you'll need to pay another set of closing costs. If you fall into that pool of homeowners who purchased property when rates were high, consider reaching out to your lender and running the numbers to see whether a mortgage refinance makes sense for your budget, said Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. How to find the best refinance rates The rates advertised online often require specific conditions for eligibility. Your personal interest rate will be influenced by market conditions as well as your specific credit history, financial profile and application. Having a high credit score, a low credit utilization ratio and a history of consistent and on-time payments will generally help you get the best interest rates. 30-year fixed-rate refinance The average 30-year fixed refinance rate right now is 6.88%, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed refinance will typically have lower monthly payments than a 15-year or 10-year refinance, but it will take you longer to pay off and typically cost you more in interest over the long term. 15-year fixed-rate refinance For 15-year fixed refinances, the average rate is currently at 6.15%, a decrease of 14 basis points compared to one week ago. Though a 15-year fixed refinance will most likely raise your monthly payment compared to a 30-year loan, you'll save more money over time because you're paying off your loan quicker. Also, 15-year refinance rates are typically lower than 30-year refinance rates, which will help you save more in the long run. 10-year fixed-rate refinance For 10-year fixed refinances, the average rate is currently at 6.16%, an increase of 1 basis point over last week. A 10-year refinance typically has the lowest interest rate but the highest monthly payment of all refinance terms. A 10-year refinance can help you pay off your house much quicker and save on interest, but make sure you can afford the steeper monthly payment. To get the best refinance rates, make your application as strong as possible by getting your finances in order, using credit responsibly and monitoring your credit regularly. And don't forget to speak with multiple lenders and shop around. When to consider a mortgage refinance Homeowners usually refinance to save money, but there are other reasons to do so. Here are the most common reasons homeowners refinance: To get a lower interest rate: If you can secure a rate that's at least 1% lower than the one on your current mortgage, it could make sense to refinance. If you can secure a rate that's at least 1% lower than the one on your current mortgage, it could make sense to refinance. To switch the type of mortgage: If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage and want greater security, you could refinance to a fixed-rate mortgage. If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage and want greater security, you could refinance to a fixed-rate mortgage. To eliminate mortgage insurance: If you have an FHA loan that requires mortgage insurance, you can refinance to a conventional loan once you have 20% equity. If you have an FHA loan that requires mortgage insurance, you can refinance to a conventional loan once you have 20% equity. To change the length of a loan term: Refinancing to a longer loan term could lower your monthly payment. Refinancing to a shorter term will save you interest in the long run. Refinancing to a longer loan term could lower your monthly payment. Refinancing to a shorter term will save you interest in the long run. To tap into your equity through a cash-out refinance: If you replace your mortgage with a larger loan, you can receive the difference in cash to cover a large expense. If you replace your mortgage with a larger loan, you can receive the difference in cash to cover a large expense. To take someone off the mortgage: In case of divorce, you can apply for a new home loan in just your name and use the funds to pay off your existing mortgage.
Forbes
2 hours ago
- Forbes
Interest Rate Decision This Afternoon; War Rhetoric Heats Up
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the U.S. against becoming involved in its war ... More with Israel. (Photo by) Key Takeaways: Markets fell on Tuesday as hostilities ratcheted up between Israel and Iran. The S&P 500 dropped 0.84% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9%. Small cap stocks were down a full 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7%. The catalyst for yesterday's pullback was the situation between Israel and Iran. Things heated up further as President Trump hinted the U.S. could become involved if Iran doesn't surrender. In response, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his country will not surrender and warned the U.S. against involvement. That news sent oil higher by 4% on the day. One asset that did respond to the situation in the Middle East was oil. On Tuesday, crude prices jumped 4% to over $73. Increasing oil prices could affect how the Fed approaches interest rate decisions. As I've mentioned many times in the past, if there is one thing that can change the inflation equation quickly, it's oil prices. Speaking of the Fed, later this afternoon, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its decision on interest rates. We will also get an update to the dot plot which maps out expectations for interest rates moving forward. Currently, the CME Fed Watch Tool puts the odds of any change to interest rates at almost 0%. I'm not surprised by that given the increase in oil prices and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and tariffs. A very positive development on Tuesday was the Senate passing of the Genius Act. This legislation provides for some much-needed oversight of stablecoins. Stablecoins are tied to less volatile assets like the U.S. dollar. Crypto assets, such as bitcoin, are in turn pegged to stablecoins. That relationship helps to moderate the volatility of crypto markets. Passage of the Genius Act lends both credibility and reliability in the crypto space which will likely lead to greater participation from financial institutions. The House needs to pass the legislation next before it can head to President Trump, who has said he would like to sign the legislation into law this summer. For today, I'm watching the situation in the Middle East and am interested to hear from Jerome Powell. I'm keeping my eye on both oil prices and the VIX as well. The VIX is back over 21 in premarket trading after having recently gotten back near its historical mean of 16. Also, tomorrow is Juneteenth and U.S. markets will be closed. I expect that to lead to many people taking advantage of the holiday to start a four-day weekend. Therefore, I'm expecting lower volumes on Friday. But I'll remind everyone that it's when things are quiet and volume is low that an otherwise innocuous event can cause a big move in the market. As always, I would stick with your investing plan and long-term objectives. tastytrade, Inc. commentary for educational purposes only. This content is not, nor is intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any investment product or strategy is suitable for any person.
Wall Street Journal
2 hours ago
- Wall Street Journal
Mortgage Rates Today, June 18, 2025: 30-Year Rates Drop to 6.86%
Mortgage rates are down and still under 7%. Today's national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.86%, according to Bankrate. If you choose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate is 6.08%. Interest rates for new mortgages and refinances continue to hover near 7%, contributing to a stifling summer for the economy. The labor market appears to have stalled, with many companies opting not to fill open positions. At the same time, rising costs have put pressure on consumer spending, contributing to a weak real estate market during the spring and summer. These risks have many business owners hunkering down for an uneasy few months ahead. The inflation rate rose 2.4% in May compared to the previous year, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. Economists had expected to see tariff-related price increases in the May report, leading to questions over whether an inflationary price bump is still to come in the summer or if low consumer demand is responsible for modest price increases. The economic uncertainty has some analysts making the case that it's time for the Fed to cut interest rates, though it's unlikely to happen at the central bank's next meeting. The CME Group's FedWatch tool predicts an over 99% chance that policymakers will keep their benchmark rate steady at the meeting on June 18 and 19. Top mortgage rates today Current mortgage rates are down and lower than they were seven days ago but lower than in early 2025, when the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached above 7%. Even though Federal Reserve policy doesn't directly impact today's mortgage rates, they have been easing since the Fed began cutting rates in late 2024, and policymakers have been holding rates steady in 2025. Mortgage rates change regularly, so compare offers and consider the personal and market factors that influence your quoted mortgage rate.
