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Miami Herald
30-07-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Federal Reserve meeting targets interest rate cut
America wants its interest rates cut. From Main Street to Wall Street, there is a general expectation that lower interest rates on borrowed money will free up finances and allow households and businesses greater financial freedoms. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter But will that relief come during the dog days of summer? Maximum employment and price stability are the twin priorities - officially called the dual mandate - of the Federal Reserve. These goals require a delicate balance because higher interest rates lower inflation but increase job losses, while lower interest rates lower unemployment but increase inflation. The independent central bank uses interest rates as a tool to manage its dual mandate. Related: Former Fed Chair sends stern message on economy, Fed The Federal Funds Rate is the price the Fed charges U.S. banks to borrow money overnight. This in turn sets the scene for short-term costs of borrowing money like credit cards and auto and student loans. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield is the benchmark for longer-term interest rates like the 30-year fixed mortgage, currently hovering around 6.8%. President Donald Trump and his allies have been escalating demands - sometimes deploying harsh and often vulgar rhetoric - at Federal Chair Jerome Powell to support a rate cut this week. Powell, a Trump appointee, is the FOMC chair but not the only Fed vote. Image source:Many economists and market watchers have said there needs to be more evidence that the labor market is cooling and inflation is inching closer to its 2% target before the Fed can consider cutting interest rates. The reason: Expected inflation this summer from President Donald Trump's tariffs, currently the highest the nation has seen in nine decades. More Fed: Fed interest rate cut decision resets forecasts for the rest of this yearFederal Reserve prepares strong message on long-term interest ratesFed official revamps interest-rate cut forecast for this year The Federal Open Market Committee, a 12-member policymaking panel, is expected to keep the Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50% when it meets July 29 and 30. The CME Group's widely respected FedWatch Tool reports a 2.1% chance the rate cut will come this week. This "wait-and-see" approach reflects a cautious stance in a post-pandemic economy marked by persistent inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including the impact of tariffs. The last time the FOMC voted to cut the Federal Fund Rate was in December 2024. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, separately have said a funds rate cut could come as early as the July meeting, provided tariff inflation proved to be transitory and the jobs numbers don't weaken. "It's not political,'' Waller said, signaling that his thoughts were influenced by data, not the wishes of the Trump administration. Related: Fed official voices blunt 3-word message on Fed rate cuts President Trump has been demanding a 3% rate cut. As part of his campaign, he had threatened to fire Powell - which is illegal unless shown to be "for cause." That "cause" campaign took the White House to a rare onsite visit to the Federal Reserve last week in an attempt to highlight that renovations to the Fed's D.C. campus incurred millions of dollars in overruns under Powell's management. The Fed's response to the $2.5 billion renovations placed the blame for cost overruns on inflation and tariffs. It was the first visit by a president to the Fed in almost 20 years. Afterwards, the president walked back his threats to fire Powell but has continued to make near-daily demands that the FOMC begin to cut rates immediately. FOMC meets next in September 2025, which is seen as the next possible vote to cut the Federal Funds Rate. At that time, new economic data tracking inflation and jobs will be known. Alex Tsepaev, chief strategy officer at B2Prime Group, a global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients, said a rate cut this week "is virtually off the table." "In my opinion, the inflation situation has simply worsened too much over the last quarter for the Fed to even think about a rate cut this week," Tsepaev said, adding "that a rate cut might only happen if the economic landscape shows clear signs of improvement, with September being the earliest possible time frame, assuming inflation starts to decline." James Bullard, dean of Purdue's business school and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told The New York Times that he expected the Fed to restart interest rate cuts in September and lower borrowing costs by another quarter-point in December. Related: White House tours Fed seeking fraud The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
The Star
13-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Ringgit likely to be in active trade and move between 4.24-4.26 against US dollar this week
KUALA LUMPUR (Bernama): The ringgit is expected to remain volatile this week, moving in the range between 4.24 and 4.26 against the US dollar, an analyst said. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told Bernama that apart from the United States (US) tariff, the next key question is whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut the interest rates. On that note, he said key data points would be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Thus far, the inflation rate has been quite manageable during the 90-day pause period. "Obviously, the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs on August 1 would result in higher inflation, which could lead to the need to keep the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) steady as an ideal policy decision. "The US dollar index (DXY) has been gradually climbing and therefore, emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, could stay on the low side,' Mohd Afzanizam said. Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes also said the ringgit is expected to trade within a narrow range ahead of the release of the US CPI next week, a key economic event likely to shape market direction and the Fed policy expectations. The upcoming US inflation report, due Tuesday, would be closely watched by financial markets as it could offer clear signals on the path of interest rates, he said. Innes said markets are particularly focused on the core CPI month-on-month figure, with 0.3 per cent seen as the critical threshold. "A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a September rate cut by the Fed, potentially leading to a pullback in the US dollar and offering the ringgit some relief,' Innes said. However, he cautioned that a stronger print, particularly at 0.4 per cent or higher, would likely shift market expectations toward a more hawkish Fed, sparking renewed dollar strength. "In that scenario, the US dollar-ringgit pair could climb toward 4.2700, although any initial spike may be short-lived if profit-taking emerges,' he noted. He projected the ringgit to trade within a tactical range of 4.2400 to 4.2650, with market positioning expected to tighten further. "For now, the ringgit remains a passenger in a vehicle driven by US macro outcomes -- not a driver in its own right,' Innes added. On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit ended the week lower against the greenback, closing at 4.2475/2525 from 4.2180/2260 previously. The local note traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies. The ringgit appreciated vis-a-vis the Japanese yen to 2.8893/8929 from 2.9225/9282, and increased against the British pound to 5.7524/7592 from 5.7601/7710 last Friday. However, it marginally fell versus the euro to 4.9679/9737 from 4.9675/9770 at the end of last week. Against Asean currencies, the ringgit was traded lower. The local note was down against the Singapore dollar to 3.3186/3228 from 3.3114/3182, and narrowed versus the Indonesian rupiah to 261.8/262.3 from 260.6/261.2 previously. It weakened versus the Thai baht to 13.0668/0886 from 13.0302/0609 and declined against the Philippine peso at 7.52/7.53 from 7.47/7.49 on last Friday. -- Bernama
New Straits Times
13-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Ringgit likely to move between 4.24-4.26 against US dollar next week
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to remain volatile next week, moving in the range between 4.24 and 4.26 against the US dollar, an analyst said. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told Bernama that apart from the United States (US) tariff, the next key question is whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut the interest rates. On that note, he said key data points would be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Thus far, the inflation rate has been quite manageable during the 90-day pause period. "Obviously, the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs on August 1 would result in higher inflation, which could lead to the need to keep the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) steady as an ideal policy decision. "The US dollar index (DXY) has been gradually climbing and therefore, emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, could stay on the low side," Mohd Afzanizam said. Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes also said the ringgit is expected to trade within a narrow range ahead of the release of the US CPI next week, a key economic event likely to shape market direction and the Fed policy expectations. The upcoming US inflation report, due Tuesday, would be closely watched by financial markets as it could offer clear signals on the path of interest rates, he said. Innes said markets are particularly focused on the core CPI month-on-month figure, with 0.3 per cent seen as the critical threshold. "A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a September rate cut by the Fed, potentially leading to a pullback in the US dollar and offering the ringgit some relief," Innes said. However, he cautioned that a stronger print, particularly at 0.4 per cent or higher, would likely shift market expectations toward a more hawkish Fed, sparking renewed dollar strength. "In that scenario, the US dollar-ringgit pair could climb toward 4.2700, although any initial spike may be short-lived if profit-taking emerges," he noted. He projected the ringgit to trade within a tactical range of 4.2400 to 4.2650, with market positioning expected to tighten further. "For now, the ringgit remains a passenger in a vehicle driven by US macro outcomes -- not a driver in its own right," Innes added. On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit ended the week lower against the greenback, closing at 4.2475/2525 from 4.2180/2260 previously. The local note traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies. The ringgit appreciated vis-a-vis the Japanese yen to 2.8893/8929 from 2.9225/9282, and increased against the British pound to 5.7524/7592 from 5.7601/7710 last Friday. However, it marginally fell versus the euro to 4.9679/9737 from 4.9675/9770 at the end of last week. Against ASEAN currencies, the ringgit was traded lower. The local note was down against the Singapore dollar to 3.3186/3228 from 3.3114/3182, and narrowed versus the Indonesian rupiah to 261.8/262.3 from 260.6/261.2 previously. It weakened versus the Thai baht to 13.0668/0886 from 13.0302/0609 and declined against the Philippine peso at 7.52/7.53 from 7.47/7.49 on last Friday.
Daily Express
12-07-2025
- Business
- Daily Express
Ringgit forecast to trade between 4.24-4.26 vs US dollar next week
Published on: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Published on: Sat, Jul 12, 2025 By: Bernama Text Size: Kuala Lumpur: The ringgit is expected to remain volatile next week, moving in the range between 4.24 and 4.26 against the US dollar, an analyst said. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told Bernama that apart from the United States (US) tariff, the next key question is whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut the interest rates. On that note, he said key data points would be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Thus far, the inflation rate has been quite manageable during the 90-day pause period. 'Obviously, the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs on August 1 would result in higher inflation, which could lead to the need to keep the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) steady as an ideal policy decision. 'The US dollar index (DXY) has been gradually climbing and therefore, emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, could stay on the low side,' Mohd Afzanizam said. Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes also said the ringgit is expected to trade within a narrow range ahead of the release of the US CPI next week, a key economic event likely to shape market direction and the Fed policy expectations. The upcoming US inflation report, due Tuesday, would be closely watched by financial markets as it could offer clear signals on the path of interest rates, he said. Innes said markets are particularly focused on the core CPI month-on-month figure, with 0.3 per cent seen as the critical threshold. 'A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a September rate cut by the Fed, potentially leading to a pullback in the US dollar and offering the ringgit some relief,' Innes said. However, he cautioned that a stronger print, particularly at 0.4 per cent or higher, would likely shift market expectations toward a more hawkish Fed, sparking renewed dollar strength. 'In that scenario, the US dollar-ringgit pair could climb toward 4.2700, although any initial spike may be short-lived if profit-taking emerges,' he noted. He projected the ringgit to trade within a tactical range of 4.2400 to 4.2650, with market positioning expected to tighten further. 'For now, the ringgit remains a passenger in a vehicle driven by US macro outcomes -- not a driver in its own right,' Innes added. On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit ended the week lower against the greenback, closing at 4.2475/2525 from 4.2180/2260 previously. The local note traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies. The ringgit appreciated vis-a-vis the Japanese yen to 2.8893/8929 from 2.9225/9282, and increased against the British pound to 5.7524/7592 from 5.7601/7710 last Friday. However, it marginally fell versus the euro to 4.9679/9737 from 4.9675/9770 at the end of last week. Against ASEAN currencies, the ringgit was traded lower. The local note was down against the Singapore dollar to 3.3186/3228 from 3.3114/3182, and narrowed versus the Indonesian rupiah to 261.8/262.3 from 260.6/261.2 previously. It weakened versus the Thai baht to 13.0668/0886 from 13.0302/0609 and declined against the Philippine peso at 7.52/7.53 from 7.47/7.49 on last Friday. * Follow us on our official WhatsApp channel and Telegram for breaking news alerts and key updates! * Do you have access to the Daily Express e-paper and online exclusive news? Check out subscription plans available. Stay up-to-date by following Daily Express's Telegram channel. Daily Express Malaysia
The Sun
12-07-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Ringgit forecast to trade between 4.24-4.26 vs US dollar next week
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to remain volatile next week, moving in the range between 4.24 and 4.26 against the US dollar, an analyst said. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told Bernama that apart from the United States (US) tariff, the next key question is whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut the interest rates. On that note, he said key data points would be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Thus far, the inflation rate has been quite manageable during the 90-day pause period. 'Obviously, the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs on August 1 would result in higher inflation, which could lead to the need to keep the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) steady as an ideal policy decision. 'The US dollar index (DXY) has been gradually climbing and therefore, emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, could stay on the low side,' Mohd Afzanizam said. Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes also said the ringgit is expected to trade within a narrow range ahead of the release of the US CPI next week, a key economic event likely to shape market direction and the Fed policy expectations. The upcoming US inflation report, due Tuesday, would be closely watched by financial markets as it could offer clear signals on the path of interest rates, he said. Innes said markets are particularly focused on the core CPI month-on-month figure, with 0.3 per cent seen as the critical threshold. 'A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a September rate cut by the Fed, potentially leading to a pullback in the US dollar and offering the ringgit some relief,' Innes said. However, he cautioned that a stronger print, particularly at 0.4 per cent or higher, would likely shift market expectations toward a more hawkish Fed, sparking renewed dollar strength. 'In that scenario, the US dollar-ringgit pair could climb toward 4.2700, although any initial spike may be short-lived if profit-taking emerges,' he noted. He projected the ringgit to trade within a tactical range of 4.2400 to 4.2650, with market positioning expected to tighten further. 'For now, the ringgit remains a passenger in a vehicle driven by US macro outcomes -- not a driver in its own right,' Innes added. On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit ended the week lower against the greenback, closing at 4.2475/2525 from 4.2180/2260 previously. The local note traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies. The ringgit appreciated vis-a-vis the Japanese yen to 2.8893/8929 from 2.9225/9282, and increased against the British pound to 5.7524/7592 from 5.7601/7710 last Friday. However, it marginally fell versus the euro to 4.9679/9737 from 4.9675/9770 at the end of last week. Against ASEAN currencies, the ringgit was traded lower. The local note was down against the Singapore dollar to 3.3186/3228 from 3.3114/3182, and narrowed versus the Indonesian rupiah to 261.8/262.3 from 260.6/261.2 previously. It weakened versus the Thai baht to 13.0668/0886 from 13.0302/0609 and declined against the Philippine peso at 7.52/7.53 from 7.47/7.49 on last Friday.
