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Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Want higher pay? Don't change jobs
For years, America's job market has rewarded the footloose. The surest route to a higher salary, the usual advice goes, is to string together a series of one- or two-year stints, each paying a bit better than the last. Career gurus on TikTok set videos of their own salary progression to jaunty pop beats, cloaking online bragging as guidance for the uninitiated. On Reddit, posters debate just how little time in a role a job-hopper can get away with before future employers might start to fret about disloyalty. (A year or so is the consensus, though a brave few argue for six months.) Now things are changing. For the first time in 15 years, barring blips in 2012 and 2018, wage growth for 'job-stayers", those who have stuck with their employer, is running faster than for 'job-switchers", those who jumped ship, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (see chart 1). Thus, for America's office drones, hunkering down and impressing the boss may well be a better bet than polishing their CV or at last responding to those LinkedIn messages from head-hunters. The woes of job-hoppers are a particularly visible sign of a wider trend: the softening of America's once rock-solid labour market. Another sign is the rising unemployment rate for fresh university graduates, who are struggling to persuade anyone to take a punt on them. There have been plenty of weak patches in the jobs market over the past few years. Some firms, like the big consultancies, vastly over-hired during the post-pandemic boom, and have since spent years painfully paring back. Coders have complained about poor prospects for a while; first, high interest rates hurt tech-firm valuations, then new artificial-intelligence models turned out to be particularly adept at programming. But a broad jobs slowdown is a fresh development. Even as the stimulus-fuelled excesses of the post-pandemic years cooled, America's labour market remained impressively robust. For month after month, new payrolls data would show that hundreds of thousands of jobs were being added to the economy. Now that motor may be slowing. June's payroll numbers looked strong on the surface—some 147,000 jobs were added across the economy, beating expectations—but half of those were in government, mostly teaching. Private-sector employment, a better measure of the underlying state of the economy, was disappointingly weak. Unusually, over the past few years there have been more job openings than people on the unemployment rolls, an indication of red-hot demand for workers. However, this ratio of vacancies to unemployment, which economists watch closely as a measure of labour-market health, has recently fallen and is back to one, meaning there are about as many job openings as job-seekers (see chart 2). Surveys of bosses tell a similar story of cooling labour demand: the share of small-business owners who are planning to raise hiring or lift salaries is at its lowest since the pandemic (see chart 3). What does all this mean for America's would-be job-hoppers? Once labour markets start cracking, they have a habit of deteriorating further. The Federal Reserve may, in due course, come to the rescue by lowering interest rates—but only after it can be persuaded that tariffs will not set off another round of inflation. If ever there was a time to redecorate your office and invest in a comfier chair, now might be it. You could be there for a while.
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed's Bostic Urges Patience Amid Uncertainty, Resilient Economy
(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic called for patience amid uncertainty over economic policy and said a wait-and-see approach can help to ensure officials don't have to reverse course on interest rates. NYC Commutes Resume After Midtown Bus Terminal Crash Chaos Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Massachusetts to Follow NYC in Making Landlords Pay Broker Fees Foreign Buyers Swoop on Cape Town Homes, Pricing Out Locals What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing 'I believe a period characterized by such widespread uncertainty is no time for significant shifts in monetary policy,' Bostic said Thursday at an event in Frankfurt. 'That is especially the case against the backdrop of a still resilient macroeconomy, which offers space for patience.' Fed officials have held rates steady this year while they wait to see how President Donald Trump's tariffs, along with changes to immigration, taxes and regulation, will affect the economy. Projections released after last month's meeting show a divide over how much officials expect to reduce borrowing costs this year. While 10 policymakers expect to lower rates at least two times in 2025, seven see the Fed holding rates steady all year. The Atlanta Fed chief said earlier this week that the impact of tariff-induced price increases may be incremental, instead of amounting to a one-time jump, which could lead to more persistent inflation. He reiterated that concern on Thursday, saying tariff-related price bumps may be implemented over the course of the next year or more, causing a slow trickle of price increases that could lift inflation expectations. 'If I'm right, then the US economy will likely experience a longer period of elevated inflation readings,' Bostic said. Job Market A stronger-than-forecast jobs report for June, released earlier Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, lowered market expectations for a July cut. Bostic said Thursday there are signs the labor market is softening, including a slowdown in hiring, but he said the jobs market is not yet deteriorating. 'I believe the committee must await more clarity rather than move in a policy direction that it might need to quickly reverse,' he said, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee. Responding to questions following his remarks, Bostic said higher US government debt levels could eventually have implications for policymakers. He said debt servicing costs could 'crowd out' other activities, which could later affect prices and employment in 'material' ways. Republicans in Congress appear close on Thursday to passing Trump's tax and spending bill. The version that passed the Senate would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over a decade, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Bostic also said the size of the federal debt could affect monetary policy by moving interest rates. 'To the extent that those things are perceived in financial markets as risk elevators, you could see interest rates move to some extent independent of things that we do,' Bostic said. 'That would be really something that we'd have to think hard about.' --With assistance from Jana Randow. (Updates with additional Bostic comments starting in 10th paragraph.) SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Business Insider
16-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Workers who stayed put are finally starting to see their efforts pay off
Welcome back! A programming note: This will be my last week at the helm of the newsletter for a bit. Next week I start the second half of my paternity leave. Luckily for you, my fantastic colleague Hallam Bullock is back to run the show. Just don't mind the Britishisms. In today's big story, workers who stuck with their employer are finally seeing the benefit of their loyalty. Meanwhile, one generation is getting left out in the cold. What's on deck Tech: Recruiters told us the most sought-after qualities they're looking for when hunting AI researchers and engineers. Business: Some advice for switching up your job search if you feel it's stalling out. But first, I'm sticking around. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. The big story You should stay and not go After years of job hoppers being rewarded for their mercenary approach to work, the employees willing to stick around are starting to come out on top, writes BI's Juliana Kaplan and Madison Hoff. An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta shows that year-over-year median wage growth for job stayers has been outpacing growth for job switchers since February. It's the first time that's happened for a sustained period since 2009. Granted, the difference between the two sides isn't massive (4.3% growth for job stayers versus 4.1% growth for job switchers). But keep in mind the massive lead job hoppers once had. In July 2022, job switchers enjoyed 8.5% in wage growth while those staying put experienced 5.9% growth. The flip-flop is also another example of how economic uncertainty affects the labor market. With so many question marks giving companies pause, shelling out big for new hires isn't high on the priority list. The workforce's youngest generation finds the current job environment particularly challenging, writes BI's Allie Kelly. Beyond what I've mentioned, several factors have specifically put Gen Z in a tough spot. Artificial intelligence is starting to prove sufficient at handling the type of responsibilities found in entry-level jobs. Government work, once viewed as a stable alternative to the volatile private sector, isn't promising due to the ongoing budget cuts. It's a stark reality, especially considering how quickly the tides have turned. It wasn't too long ago that Gen Z was leading the job-hopping charge. Until this year, Gen Z was entering a labor market that had the best conditions for young workers since the 1990s, writes Allie. In many ways, a brutal job market can be a rite of passage for a young worker. From boomers' stagflation to millennials' 2008 financial crisis, an economic slump can serve as battle scars that generations eventually proudly show off. When I was entering the job market, things were BAD! But while many of the past economic issues were solvable, some of the current issues (the impact of AI, specifically) seem likely to upend the fundamental way the economy works. And how Gen Z fits in after that remains to be seen. 3 things in markets 1. A YOLO stock bet and a frugal lifestyle. Corey Forsythe is 35 years old, and he's already reached Coast FIRE status. That means he's saved enough for retirement and can now let his investments grow independently. From "living like a college student" to a risky investment, here's how Forsythe did it. 2. Top economic experts are sounding the alarm. The Treasury Department saw solid demand for its auction of 30-year government bonds, soothing investors' concerns. But Ray Dalio, Ken Rogoff, and Niall Ferguson told Goldman Sachs they're still concerned about an impending US debt crisis. Here's what they said. 3. When Jamie Dimon spoke, private equity listened. Early last week, the JPMorgan CEO blasted the practice of PE firms hiring junior bankers for future-dated jobs. Days later, buyout shops Apollo Global Management and General Atlantic announced they'd stop the recruiting practice this year. Here's why they took Dimon's warnings to heart. 3 things in tech 1. The AI hiring scramble is on. AI researchers and engineers are some of the hottest roles across industries right now, and companies are fighting for the best talent. For those who have an advanced degree, years of experience, and soft skills, recruiters and headhunters told BI it's a dream come true. 2. The next wearable tech? Digital face tattoos. That's the goal for researchers at the University of Texas at Austin, where they're developing an electronic "tattoo" that measures mental stress. It's meant for workers with high-risk jobs like air traffic controllers. 3. AI coding tools are disrupting the "build-versus-buy" equation. Bolt, Replit, and Cursor are some tools threatening the SaaS business model. While building enterprise software in-house was once considered expensive, it's now easier than ever to DIY, writes BI's Alistair Barr. 3 things in business 1. Some advice for frustrated job seekers. Labor-market conditions have you pulling your hair out? It might be time to switch up the types of roles you're going after or talk with friends about how to recalibrate your job search. Here are some of the best ways to do it. 2. All eyes are on the biggest advertising event of the year. Madison Avenue's heading to the south of France for the Cannes Lions ad festival. Agency consolidation, high-profile executive departures, and artificial intelligence (of course) are all top of mind. 3. A $55 billion PE firm has become healthtech's saving grace. New Mountain Capital is making a name for itself among VCs for big bets in the space, multiple investors and bankers told BI. It's a welcome change for an industry where IPOs and acquisitions have been tough to come by. In other news From frustration to elation: What Wall Street thinks about the potential death of the private equity recruiting race. I took a chaotic, surreal robotaxi ride through central London. It left me impressed, but with one big question. Burnout, $1 million income, and retiring early: What we've learned from 29 people who secretly work multiple remote jobs. Trump voters with student loans are having 'buyer's remorse' over his latest debt collection moves. Starting over in paradise: Eight people on what it's like to run a business, find a home, and build a life in Koh Samui. How to quietly search for your next job on LinkedIn. What's happening today President Trump attends G7 Summit day two. IRS quarterly tax filing deadline day. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.
The Hill
14-06-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Creating tax reform that is both pro-work and pro-family
There is growing recognition among both Republicans and Democrats that American families deserve more support. Yet, for too many low-income Americans striving to build a better life for their families, key provisions of the federal tax code penalize hard work and marriage, creating barriers where there should be reward. The ongoing discussions about tax reform present an opportunity to introduce reforms that are both pro-work and pro-family. The Earned Income Tax Credit is one of the largest sources of support for low-income families, but it could be streamlined and paired with changes to the Child Tax Credit so that the two credits are better structured to accomplish the dual goals of rewarding work and providing income support to families with children. The Earned Income Tax Credit currently provides a maximum of $7,830 a year for qualifying families with three children. Families receive no money from the program if they have no earnings. The credit then increases at low levels of earnings to encourage work. It also increases as the number of children in the family goes from one to two to three. An unintended, undesirable feature of this design is that the 'pro-work' incentives of the Earned Income Tax Credit are stronger for families with more kids — exactly opposite to common sense ideas of family wellbeing. Families with more kids likely benefit from more parental time at home. In addition, because the earnings eligibility limits do not double for married couples, the Earned Income Tax Credit discourages marriage among working low-income parents and makes it harder for married couples to get ahead by adding a second earner. Such 'marriage penalties' are found throughout the tax code. Since the progressive U.S. tax code is applied to combined household income, couples who marry can be subject to a higher overall tax rate and potentially reduced government benefits. The Department of the Treasury estimates that in 2023, 37 percent of married couples filing jointly faced a marriage penalty. Although couples can legally file separately, they rarely do, as it also almost always leads to a higher tax burden and it precludes the claiming of many tax credits, including the Earned Income Tax Credit. According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Boston University, over 7 percent more low-income women with children would marry by age 35 without this marriage penalty. But it doesn't have to be this way. As Congress is poised to implement major changes to the U.S. tax system, we urge lawmakers to adopt a more coherent, pro-family approach to tax policy. The current tax debate presents a golden opportunity to address and modernize some of the system's most outdated features. We propose modifications to the two main federal tax credits affecting low-income families. Specifically, we propose a unified Earned Income Tax Credit that applies to any family with children. We scale the credit size and income eligibility for married couples so that fewer families see their benefits reduced when they marry or a spouse starts to work. To ensure that low-income families with children are not left worse off under these changes, we pair these Earned Income Tax Credit reforms with an expansion of the Child Tax Credit. The enhanced Child Tax Credit would provide greater support to families raising young children and help offset the rising costs of caregiving and childrearing. To ensure even the lowest-income children have access to support, families with no earnings are eligible for half of the proposed Child Tax Credit. Our proposal increases Child Tax Credit benefits quickly as parental earnings increase, providing an incentive for parents to enter the workforce. Our proposed changes prioritize low- and middle-income American families, with 58 percent of the increases in transfer payments going to families in the bottom two-thirds of the income distribution. These changes would update the U.S. tax code to be both pro-family and pro-work, supporting working parents, reducing marriage penalties, and providing impactful support to children in low-income households. At a time when there is growing bipartisan interest in better supporting children and working parents, these changes offer a clear path forward. With modest adjustments, we can create a tax system that promotes family stability, encourages workforce participation and helps more families build secure, thriving futures. Melissa S. Kearney director of The Aspen Economic Strategy Group and Luke Pardue is policy director of The Aspen Economic Strategy Group.
Business Insider
14-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
The Big Stay is finally paying off: Quitting to job-switch is worse for wage growth than sticking it out
It's time to let go of Great Resignation FOMO. Typical year-over-year wage growth for job stayers has surpassed that for those quitting and switching roles. While it's a small gain at this point, you can see in the chart below that it's an extremely rare event and hasn't happened for a sustained period since 2009. Plus, it's a big turnaround from July 2022, when the gap was 8.5% vs. 5.9% in favor of job switchers. It speaks to how hesitant companies have become to hire; when they do decide to bring someone on board, they don't need to shell out a big raise to seal the deal. As a result, the white-collar workers who held tight to their jobs have become the sector's upper class: They're benefiting from low layoffs and robust wage growth. For those who both switched during the Great Resignation and have hung on to their new role ever since, that might be an economic double whammy — they cashed in at that higher salary and have been sitting pretty since. On the other end of the spectrum are white-collar workers who are out of work and looking, at a time when US businesses are hiring at nearly the lowest rate since 2014, excluding an early pandemic plunge. So you may be wondering: Is it a good time to switch jobs or not? Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, sums it up. "If the right job comes up, one that moves you forward in your career and gives you a healthy raise, certainly consider taking it," he said. "If not, there is at least some assurance that staying put still provides decent pay increases right now." Have a story to share about your job or job search? Reach out to these reporters at mhoff@ and jkaplan@ Job stayers are the new white-collar upper class In contrast to the years of the Great Resignation, when job stayers were leaving money on the table by not hopping to a new company, the Big Stay has finally started paying off for those who are staying put. In May, white-collar-dominated industries had robust wage growth over the year. Average hourly earnings increased 6% from a year ago in the information sector, which includes broadcasting, telecommunications, and data processing. Professional and business services, such as the management of companies and enterprises, legal services, and computer system design services, had wage growth of about 5%. According to an analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, median wage growth for job stayers across all industries has outpaced growth for job switchers since February. The Big Stay seems here to stay for the time being — white-collar folks aren't leaving their jobs. Even if they're no longer enjoying their work, some see it as better than facing a long stretch of unemployment or an uncertain job market. And, financially, it's paying off. "There's fewer people coming in, fewer people heading out," Guy Berger, the director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, said. "That mix tends to favor established workers who tend to be older and tends to hurt younger people trying to get their foot in the door." Job seekers are trading down in title and pay On the other side are the white-collar job seekers. The things that make the market relatively pleasant for job stayers are working against the job seekers: Employers are running leaner in the face of economic uncertainty and would rather rely on the talent they have. Job stayers may be worried about their chances of getting a different job and aren't vacating roles. "As white-collar industries reverse some of that pandemic hiring and also pull back on hiring amid economic uncertainty, it's getting tougher to find a job," Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, told Business Insider. Glassdoor data last year showed that a growing percentage of workers switching employers were accepting lower-paid roles, especially in tech. Zhao said that's because, "Many job switchers today were involuntarily laid off, resulting in more workers having to settle for a lower-paying or lower seniority job." Berger said that in addition to weak hiring leading to fewer opportunities, there are also more people with a college education, which means more competition for jobs. "It's also possible that in some segments AI is slowing demand for white-collar workers, though I doubt this is as big as some people think," Berger said. There's some good news in professional and business services, where the hiring rate continues to be strong and has been trending upward, although it's still below its late 2021 high, and the sector has had several monthly net employment losses over the past year. The information sector's hires rate is still low compared to the overall hires rate, but has climbed somewhat. Hiring in financial activities is lower than in the other two traditionally white-collar fields. Job seekers are already lowering their expectations: The average lowest wage all workers would accept for a new job plummeted from $82,000 in November 2024 to $74,000 in March 2025. Among those with college degrees, it fell from $102,000 to $95,000 in the same period. And the share of graduates in jobs that don't require a degree ticked up for recent graduates in the first quarter of 2025, indicating that degree holders are overqualified for more roles. "White-collar industries like finance, tech, and consulting are still appealing, especially for new grads, because of their promise of rapid career growth and high pay," Zhao said. "But that promise of career growth and high pay is becoming less attainable and more exclusive due to the soft hiring environment."
