The Big Stay is finally paying off: Quitting to job-switch is worse for wage growth than sticking it out
It's time to let go of Great Resignation FOMO.
Typical year-over-year wage growth for job stayers has surpassed that for those quitting and switching roles. While it's a small gain at this point, you can see in the chart below that it's an extremely rare event and hasn't happened for a sustained period since 2009. Plus, it's a big turnaround from July 2022, when the gap was 8.5% vs. 5.9% in favor of job switchers.
It speaks to how hesitant companies have become to hire; when they do decide to bring someone on board, they don't need to shell out a big raise to seal the deal.
As a result, the white-collar workers who held tight to their jobs have become the sector's upper class: They're benefiting from low layoffs and robust wage growth. For those who both switched during the Great Resignation and have hung on to their new role ever since, that might be an economic double whammy — they cashed in at that higher salary and have been sitting pretty since.
On the other end of the spectrum are white-collar workers who are out of work and looking, at a time when US businesses are hiring at nearly the lowest rate since 2014, excluding an early pandemic plunge.
So you may be wondering: Is it a good time to switch jobs or not?
Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, sums it up. "If the right job comes up, one that moves you forward in your career and gives you a healthy raise, certainly consider taking it," he said. "If not, there is at least some assurance that staying put still provides decent pay increases right now."
Have a story to share about your job or job search? Reach out to these reporters at mhoff@businessinsider.com and jkaplan@businessinsider.com.
Job stayers are the new white-collar upper class
In contrast to the years of the Great Resignation, when job stayers were leaving money on the table by not hopping to a new company, the Big Stay has finally started paying off for those who are staying put.
In May, white-collar-dominated industries had robust wage growth over the year. Average hourly earnings increased 6% from a year ago in the information sector, which includes broadcasting, telecommunications, and data processing. Professional and business services, such as the management of companies and enterprises, legal services, and computer system design services, had wage growth of about 5%.
According to an analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, median wage growth for job stayers across all industries has outpaced growth for job switchers since February.
The Big Stay seems here to stay for the time being — white-collar folks aren't leaving their jobs. Even if they're no longer enjoying their work, some see it as better than facing a long stretch of unemployment or an uncertain job market. And, financially, it's paying off.
"There's fewer people coming in, fewer people heading out," Guy Berger, the director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, said. "That mix tends to favor established workers who tend to be older and tends to hurt younger people trying to get their foot in the door."
Job seekers are trading down in title and pay
On the other side are the white-collar job seekers. The things that make the market relatively pleasant for job stayers are working against the job seekers: Employers are running leaner in the face of economic uncertainty and would rather rely on the talent they have. Job stayers may be worried about their chances of getting a different job and aren't vacating roles.
"As white-collar industries reverse some of that pandemic hiring and also pull back on hiring amid economic uncertainty, it's getting tougher to find a job," Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, told Business Insider. Glassdoor data last year showed that a growing percentage of workers switching employers were accepting lower-paid roles, especially in tech.
Zhao said that's because, "Many job switchers today were involuntarily laid off, resulting in more workers having to settle for a lower-paying or lower seniority job."
Berger said that in addition to weak hiring leading to fewer opportunities, there are also more people with a college education, which means more competition for jobs.
"It's also possible that in some segments AI is slowing demand for white-collar workers, though I doubt this is as big as some people think," Berger said.
There's some good news in professional and business services, where the hiring rate continues to be strong and has been trending upward, although it's still below its late 2021 high, and the sector has had several monthly net employment losses over the past year. The information sector's hires rate is still low compared to the overall hires rate, but has climbed somewhat. Hiring in financial activities is lower than in the other two traditionally white-collar fields.
Job seekers are already lowering their expectations: The average lowest wage all workers would accept for a new job plummeted from $82,000 in November 2024 to $74,000 in March 2025. Among those with college degrees, it fell from $102,000 to $95,000 in the same period.
And the share of graduates in jobs that don't require a degree ticked up for recent graduates in the first quarter of 2025, indicating that degree holders are overqualified for more roles.
"White-collar industries like finance, tech, and consulting are still appealing, especially for new grads, because of their promise of rapid career growth and high pay," Zhao said. "But that promise of career growth and high pay is becoming less attainable and more exclusive due to the soft hiring environment."
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The Big Stay is finally paying off: Quitting to job-switch is worse for wage growth than sticking it out
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