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Sydney Morning Herald
30-07-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
The game-changing new missile that could halt China
Each launch pod will be able to hold two of the precision missiles, compared to just a single ATACM, according to Alex Miller, the US Army's chief technology officer. It is also said to be less susceptible to jamming. The PrSMs combine those next-generation improvements with the advantages of the HIMARS and MLRS systems, which are quick, agile and relatively easy to disguise – and could wreak havoc on Chinese ships attempting an invasion. Brad Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said: 'It really creates a challenge for our adversaries because where that system is now, it may not be there in 30 seconds or five minutes … That's a real detection and targeting dilemma.' Both the US and China are ramping up their military capabilities in the Pacific and particularly around Taiwan, which Beijing regards as part of its territory even though it has effectively been independent since the 1940s. Taiwan under threat Earlier this year, Xi Jinping, the Chinese president , said 'reunification' with China was inevitable, and that those on either side of the Taiwan Strait were 'one family'. China has regularly threatened Taiwan with fighter jet and warship incursions, but has always stopped short of a direct confrontation. At a security conference in May, Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 'could be imminent'. The stakes couldn't be higher for both sides. If the US's military capabilities are outstripped by China, it would prove fatal to Taiwan, which relies on Washington to provide a credible deterrent. And if the island nation falls, it means the loss of a key strategic buffer against Beijing's expansionism. 'The most important advantage of a weapons advance like this is it simply encourages the Chinese to say, 'No … we don't have to do it now.' ' Doug Bandow, Cato Institute But failing to take the island would inflict a stunning blow on China, and almost certainly lead to the fall of Xi's regime. 'There's always a constant battle with both sides to try to respond to whatever advances the other side has,' said Doug Bandow, a senior fellow with the Cato Institute. 'But I'd say these [PrSMs] have the potential for dramatically increasing the risk factor for a Chinese fleet. So that's substantial.' China's military will be only too aware of the damage Ukraine has managed to inflict on Russia using HIMARS since they were first provided by the US in June 2022, and will be warily eyeing the upgraded precision missiles. Taiwan already has 11 HIMARS from previous arms sales with the US, and it is expected to receive more in 2026. Bandow said the PrSMs will have inflicted an important psychological blow on China without any shots even being fired, and could convince its leadership to delay its imperial ambitions. 'The most important advantage of a weapons advance like this is it simply encourages the Chinese to say, 'No … we don't have to do it now',' he told the London Telegraph. 'In my view, the best chance of getting through this is to simply have that happen a lot. And hopefully, we can get to a point, whatever that point is, where everyone agrees war is really stupid and this won't happen.' Loading Real damage could be inflicted on the Chinese fleet, both in ports and moving out to a potential invasion, if PRsMs are deployed throughout Taiwan and the rest of the first island chain, which includes Japan, Indonesia and parts of the Philippines. Australia aligns with the US Elsewhere in the Pacific, Australia signed a $US310 million ($475.6 million) deal with the US to join the missile programme in June. 'This is all about extending deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, all about signalling to any potential adversary that pain can be inflicted,' Pat Conroy, Australia's defence industry minister, said at the test flight this month. Loading But China is also moving quickly to innovate, and earlier this year, it appeared to be constructing D-Day-style barges for an invasion that would allow it to bypass rocky or soft beaches unsuitable for tanks, providing multiple fronts for an invasion. Some experts are concerned that the US is too slow to procure PrSMs. The Pentagon's recent funding request to Congress shows the Army intends to buy 44 of the missiles from Lockheed Martin. 'There's very rarely a decisive game changer by itself … but this is a key capability for the United States and our allies to have,' Bowman said.
The Age
30-07-2025
- Politics
- The Age
The game-changing new missile that could halt China
Each launch pod will be able to hold two of the precision missiles, compared to just a single ATACM, according to Alex Miller, the US Army's chief technology officer. It is also said to be less susceptible to jamming. The PrSMs combine those next-generation improvements with the advantages of the HIMARS and MLRS systems, which are quick, agile and relatively easy to disguise – and could wreak havoc on Chinese ships attempting an invasion. Brad Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said: 'It really creates a challenge for our adversaries because where that system is now, it may not be there in 30 seconds or five minutes … That's a real detection and targeting dilemma.' Both the US and China are ramping up their military capabilities in the Pacific and particularly around Taiwan, which Beijing regards as part of its territory even though it has effectively been independent since the 1940s. Taiwan under threat Earlier this year, Xi Jinping, the Chinese president , said 'reunification' with China was inevitable, and that those on either side of the Taiwan Strait were 'one family'. China has regularly threatened Taiwan with fighter jet and warship incursions, but has always stopped short of a direct confrontation. At a security conference in May, Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 'could be imminent'. The stakes couldn't be higher for both sides. If the US's military capabilities are outstripped by China, it would prove fatal to Taiwan, which relies on Washington to provide a credible deterrent. And if the island nation falls, it means the loss of a key strategic buffer against Beijing's expansionism. 'The most important advantage of a weapons advance like this is it simply encourages the Chinese to say, 'No … we don't have to do it now.' ' Doug Bandow, Cato Institute But failing to take the island would inflict a stunning blow on China, and almost certainly lead to the fall of Xi's regime. 'There's always a constant battle with both sides to try to respond to whatever advances the other side has,' said Doug Bandow, a senior fellow with the Cato Institute. 'But I'd say these [PrSMs] have the potential for dramatically increasing the risk factor for a Chinese fleet. So that's substantial.' China's military will be only too aware of the damage Ukraine has managed to inflict on Russia using HIMARS since they were first provided by the US in June 2022, and will be warily eyeing the upgraded precision missiles. Taiwan already has 11 HIMARS from previous arms sales with the US, and it is expected to receive more in 2026. Bandow said the PrSMs will have inflicted an important psychological blow on China without any shots even being fired, and could convince its leadership to delay its imperial ambitions. 'The most important advantage of a weapons advance like this is it simply encourages the Chinese to say, 'No … we don't have to do it now',' he told the London Telegraph. 'In my view, the best chance of getting through this is to simply have that happen a lot. And hopefully, we can get to a point, whatever that point is, where everyone agrees war is really stupid and this won't happen.' Loading Real damage could be inflicted on the Chinese fleet, both in ports and moving out to a potential invasion, if PRsMs are deployed throughout Taiwan and the rest of the first island chain, which includes Japan, Indonesia and parts of the Philippines. Australia aligns with the US Elsewhere in the Pacific, Australia signed a $US310 million ($475.6 million) deal with the US to join the missile programme in June. 'This is all about extending deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, all about signalling to any potential adversary that pain can be inflicted,' Pat Conroy, Australia's defence industry minister, said at the test flight this month. Loading But China is also moving quickly to innovate, and earlier this year, it appeared to be constructing D-Day-style barges for an invasion that would allow it to bypass rocky or soft beaches unsuitable for tanks, providing multiple fronts for an invasion. Some experts are concerned that the US is too slow to procure PrSMs. The Pentagon's recent funding request to Congress shows the Army intends to buy 44 of the missiles from Lockheed Martin. 'There's very rarely a decisive game changer by itself … but this is a key capability for the United States and our allies to have,' Bowman said.
Channel 4
04-07-2025
- Politics
- Channel 4
‘Not peace, not ceasefire, Putin wants victory', says analyst
We spoke to Cliff May, President of the Washington-based right-wing think-tank, the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, and asked him what the White House must make of events in Ukraine.
News18
26-06-2025
- Politics
- News18
With 4 Hidden Tunnels And 100 Metre Depth, Is Pickaxe Mountain Iran's Nuclear Plan B?
Last Updated: Built over 100 metres deep, Pickaxe Mountain is believed to be far more fortified than Iran's Fordow facility, and possibly beyond the reach of even America's bunker-buster bombs In the heart of Iran's central Isfahan province lies a mountain with an ominous name and even more ominous purpose — Pickaxe Mountain. Known formally as Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, this rugged terrain just south of Fordow and minutes from Natanz has quietly become the focus of global nuclear anxiety. Despite US President Donald Trump's recent claim that American stealth bombers 'obliterated" Iran's nuclear programme with a weekend airstrike, experts and intelligence assessments indicate that Tehran may have moved its most vital materials out of reach, into the depths of this mountain fortress. What And Where Is Pickaxe Mountain? Pickaxe Mountain is located about 145 km south of Fordow and just minutes from the Natanz nuclear facility, two of the three key sites bombed by US B-2 stealth jets using 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs. But unlike Fordow, which has two known tunnel entrances, Pickaxe has at least four—two on the eastern and two on the western slopes—each around six metres wide and eight metres tall. What makes Pickaxe more formidable than its predecessors is its extraordinary depth. According to The Telegraph, analysts estimate the underground facility is being constructed at more than 100 metres beneath the surface, far deeper than Fordow's 60–90-metre depth. This has raised concerns that even America's most powerful non-nuclear bombs may not be able to destroy it. 'The Kolang Gaz Lā or 'Pickaxe' mountain underground complex is intended to give the clerical regime a nuclear weapons site that even the US Air Force would have difficulty destroying with its largest conventional bombs," Reuel Marc Gerecht, a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, told The Telegraph. Open-source satellite images first drew attention to Pickaxe Mountain in 2023. Associated Press, after reviewing photos from Planet Labs PBC, confirmed that Iran was digging deep into the mountain. Security checkpoints and excavated tunnels were also observed. Experts fear that Iran is building not just a centrifuge manufacturing centre, but an enrichment hub for uranium itself. Steven De La Fuente, a research associate at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, told AP in 2023: 'So the depth of the facility is a concern because it would be much harder for us. It would be much harder to destroy using conventional weapons, such as like a typical bunker buster bomb." According to the Institute for Science and International Security, Iran could 'secretly deploy several thousand advanced centrifuges in the new tunnel complex", enough to continue uranium enrichment even if all other known sites are destroyed. Did Iran Move Uranium Before The Bombing? Despite Trump's repeated assertions that his surprise attack wiped out Tehran's nuclear infrastructure, evidence suggests otherwise. A leaked preliminary classified US report, quoted by The Telegraph, indicates that the strikes only set Iran's nuclear progress back by a few months. Officials told The New York Times that while parts of the facilities were sealed off, most underground structures remained intact. Adding to the concern, the NY Post reported that satellite images showed 16 cargo trucks queuing outside Fordow hours before the strikes. Sima Shine, a long-time Israeli intelligence official, told The Telegraph that 'hundreds if not thousands" of advanced centrifuges and a large portion of enriched uranium were likely moved to secret locations before the bombs fell. The most likely of those locations? Pickaxe Mountain. IAEA Stonewalled By Iran The international watchdog responsible for monitoring nuclear activity, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has been kept out of the loop. In April, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi revealed he had asked Tehran what was being constructed under Pickaxe Mountain. The response was blunt: 'It's none of your business." Grossi later told NY Post: 'Since it is obvious it is in a place where numerous and important activities related to the programme are taking place, we're asking them, what is this for? They are telling us, it's none of your business." He added: 'It cannot be excluded that the tunnels would store undeclared material," noting that he has 'been raising this issue repeatedly, and will continue to do so." That concern has grown more urgent. On Wednesday, the Iranian parliament passed a bill to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA, calling it a 'political instrument". How Much Uranium Is Unaccounted For? According to the latest IAEA data cited by The Telegraph, as of May 17, Iran had 408.6 kg (about 900 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity. This was an increase of 133.8 kg from the agency's last report in February. After the airstrikes began on June 13, roughly the same amount — 900 pounds — has been reportedly unaccounted for. The suspicion is that it was moved to Pickaxe or another undisclosed location. Donald Trump disputes this. 'They didn't have a chance to get anything out because we acted fast," he said during a press briefing. 'It would have taken two weeks, maybe. But it's very hard to remove that kind of material, very hard and very dangerous for them to remove it." Yet intelligence assessments reviewed by The Telegraph suggest that Iran not only managed the relocation, but retained enough capability to rebuild its programme in as little as six months. Macron's Warning And Israel's Unease French President Emmanuel Macron has echoed these concerns. 'The risk has indeed increased with what has happened recently," he said. 'We must absolutely prevent Iran going down this path." Israel is also watching closely. A shaky US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel did little to halt hostilities. Israeli jets struck Iranian targets just hours into the truce, prompting Trump to call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and demand restraint. 'They don't know what the f— they're doing," Trump later said, referring to both countries. What Happens Now? The future of Iran's nuclear programme appears increasingly decentralised and fortified. Intelligence experts say Iran has adopted a dispersal strategy, spreading critical capabilities across multiple sites to ensure redundancy in case of attack. Security analysts warn that in the event of an existential threat to regime survival, Iran may abandon its insistence on peaceful nuclear use and pursue weapons outright. Some hardliners in Tehran have already called for immediate nuclear bomb development. Even so, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei maintains that a religious fatwa prohibits nuclear weapons. Iranian MP Manan Raisi confirmed the fatwa 'remained in place", but noted such rulings in Shia Islam 'could change based on time and circumstances". Ahmad Naderi, another Iranian MP, went further: 'I believe we need to conduct a nuclear bomb test, and there is no other way for us." Pickaxe Mountain And The Next Phase What began as a remote construction site has now become the centrepiece of Tehran's nuclear resilience, and the biggest blind spot for Western intelligence. top videos View all With four reinforced tunnel entrances, a depth surpassing 100 metres, and signs of secure enrichment activity, Pickaxe Mountain could represent the next chapter of Iran's nuclear saga, one potentially shielded from the world's most powerful bombs, and even more so from its scrutiny. Unless international inspectors are granted access and surveillance is restored, the fortress under Pickaxe may remain just that — impenetrable, untouchable, and dangerously unknown. About the Author Karishma Jain Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @ More Get Latest Updates on Movies, Breaking News On India, World, Live Cricket Scores, And Stock Market Updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : donald trump iran nuclear sites Israel-Iran tensions Uranium Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 26, 2025, 15:49 IST News explainers With 4 Hidden Tunnels And 100 Metre Depth, Is Pickaxe Mountain Iran's Nuclear Plan B?
New Straits Times
25-06-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
China's 'inaction' eroding leverage
China has been able to do little more than stand back and watch as war between its key partner Iran and Israel harms its hard-fought leverage in the Middle East, say analysts. Beijing has sought to frame itself as a mediator in the region, facilitating a 2023 rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and portraying itself as a more neutral actor in the Israel-Palestinian conflict than its rival the United States. And its position as the largest purchaser of Iranian oil has served as a crucial lifeline for Teheran as its economy is battered by crippling international sanctions. But as Israel and Iran engaged in an unprecedented exchange of attacks and the US struck key targets on Iranian soil in the past week, Beijing has offered little beyond calls for de-escalation. "Beijing has offered Teheran no real help — just rhetoric that paints China as the principled alternative while it stays safely on the sidelines," said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies think tank. China, he said, "sticks to rhetoric — condemnations, United Nations (UN) statements, talk of 'dialogue' — because over-promising and under-delivering would spotlight its power-projection limits". "The result is a conspicuously thin response that underscores how little real heft China brings to Iran when the shooting starts." China — alongside its "no limits" partner Russia — has long been a key backer of Iran, deepening ties in the wake of the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal in 2018. President Xi Jinping described relations as "strategic" in a 2023 meeting with Iran's then-president Ebrahim Raisi, and backed Teheran in its fight against "bullying". Liu Qiang, a retired Chinese senior colonel, was even more explicit in an article on the academic website Aisixiang this month. "Iran's survival is a matter of China's national security," said the director of the Academic Committee of the Shanghai International Centre for Strategic Studies. Beijing, he insisted, must take "proactive measures" in light of the recent war to ensure that Teheran "will not be broken by the military conflict" or "jointly strangled by the US and Israel". Analysts say Beijing's ties with Teheran are central to its efforts to ensure a regional counterbalance against both the US and Israel as well as the Gulf States. "Iran fits into Beijing's broader campaign to counterbalance US-led hegemony and to a lesser extent Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) encroachment," said Tuvia Gering, non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub. Those efforts have gone into overdrive following blows to other "Axis of resistance" players since the start of the Gaza war — the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad's rule in Syria and the degradation of Hamas and Hizbollah in fighting with Israel. "Beijing has sought to prevent a total unravelling of Iran's regional role," said Gering, pointing to Chinese efforts to resurrect the nuclear deal. China condemned recent US strikes on Iran and called for parties in the region, "especially Israel", to de-escalate. And it has called for a political solution to help a declared ceasefire hold. Fighting last month between India and Pakistan saw Beijing furnish its long-time allies in Islamabad with state-of-the-art military gear. Analysts don't expect China to extend the same courtesy to its comrades in Teheran, given the risk of direct confrontation with the US. "Iran needs more than statements at the UN or missile components," said Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter. "It needs air defences and fighter jets, which are things that China could provide but would require much time to be put into use — not to mention the likely extremely negative reaction by Israel and, especially now that it directly involves the US," he added. The US has urged China to use its influence on Iran to help deter its leaders from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas. But Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Programme, was sceptical that Beijing has the leverage. "China's position in the Middle East after this conflict" has been badly affected, he said.
