Latest news with #Freshwater
Kiwiblog
4 days ago
- Politics
- Kiwiblog
How did the Australian pollsters go?
Now we have a final result for the Australian election, we can look at how the Australian pollsters did. This shows the primary and then TPP vote for each pollsters's final pre-election poll. The final TPP result of 55.2% to 44.8% was greater than all the polls. Four had it 53 to 47, so were out by 2.2% only. Those most out on the TPP were Ipsos followed by Freshwater and Demos. In terms of the primary vote, YouGov were closest to the Coalition at 31.4% to 31.8%. The most out went to Freshwater who had them 5.2% too high, and then Resolve at 3.2%. For the ALP, Redbridge were only 0.6% out and Ipsos had them a massive 6.6% too low. Four pollsters got the Greens almost spot on. The furthest out was YouGov at 2.4%. And One Nation had Roy Morgan get them almost spot on, while Essential had them 3.6% too low. If we look at how many results were within the margin of error for their sample size we have: Roy Morgan 6/6 Newspoll, Redbridge 5/6 Spectre, Resolve 3/6 Ipsos, Freshwater, Demos, Essential 2/6 YouGov 1/6 And the average error for each pollster was: Redbridge 1.5% Roy Morgan 1.7% Newspoll 1.9% Demos 2.3% resolve 2.3% YouGov 2.4% Spectre 2.6% Essential 2.6% Freshwater 2.7% Ipsos 3.0% As always you should never judge a pollster off just one poll. And all pollsters did get it right that Labor would win – but they all underestimated the degree.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
Choir's concert success raises hundreds for good causes
A community choir has raised almost £1,000 for good causes through a charity concert. The Bay Wailers, based in Freshwater, raised £975 during their tenth anniversary event, held on May 17 at Christ Church in Totland. The concert also marked the 150th anniversary of the church and featured a special performance by the West Wight Dementia Friendly Choir. The funds raised will be shared between the West Wight Dementia Friendly Choir, Freshwater Independent Lifeboat, and the Freshwater Skatepark Project. Paul Blackley, project lead for the Freshwater Skatepark and Pump Track, said: "We're so grateful to the Bay Wailers and everyone who contributed. "This donation takes us even closer to reaching our target and starting the build." Freshwater Parish Council also praised the choir's efforts. A spokesperson said: "We have heard wonderful feedback and would like to publicly acknowledge the community spirit, generosity, and musical talent that made the evening such a success." The Bay Wailers will next perform at All Saints Church in Calbourne during The Sale on the Green on June 21 at 4pm. The choir rehearses on Tuesdays from 7pm to 9pm at Freshwater Parish Hall and welcomes new members.
Elle
22-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Elle
The 15 Best Spring Fashion Finds on Amazon Right Now
One of the joys of working in fashion is the sixth sense you develop for unearthing the best products in every scenario. Case in point: This spring, we sifted through Amazon's seemingly endless assortment, which includes everything from emerging designers to iconic brands, to curate a list of the chicest closet essentials. Just like the ELLE team, Amazon tapped into what's happening on the runway, 'we think the era of quiet luxury might be fading a bit—people are leaning into glam again,' Jenny Freshwater, Amazon's Vice President of Fashion and Fitness, tells us exclusively. Amazon's stores are stocked up on all the fun seasonal trends, from leopard to plaid. 'There's also a countryside, romantic feel coming back: chiffon and ultra-feminine pieces.' Freshwater says. 'I think we'll see a grown-up take on boho this spring, too.' In addition to all of the trend-forward pieces from favorite brands, including Coach, Michael Kors, Ronny Kobo, and kate spade new york, shoppers can browse classic styles from Ray-Bans, New Balance, Lacoste, and Sweaty Betty. With hundreds of thousands of fashion items available in its stores, Amazon has made browsing the website so much easier, especially with the launch of several AI-enhanced features. 'Rufus is our AI shopping assistant that helps you shop in a conversational way,' Freshwater shares. 'It's great for narrowing down Amazon's vast selection and getting expert-like recommendations.' We tested it out to help us zero in on one of spring's biggest trends: pastel accessories. The results led to this ice blue Coach Brooklyn bag. With Amazon's View in 3D feature, we were able to scroll, pinch, zoom, and rotate the bag to see all angles. The chat feature isn't just limited to fashion finds either—it can be used across the board. 'I used Rufus to plan my daughter's spa-themed birthday party,' Freshwater says. 'I just typed in '12-year-old spa birthday,' and it helped me find the perfect headbands, wristbands, and masks.' In a constant quest to make online shopping easier, Amazon has debuted a number of features to its site that help you know how an item will look when worn, as well as what size and fit will work best. Freshwater adds: 'We work closely with brands, utilizing technology to create experiences such as View in 3D and AR/VTO, so that customers can explore products through engaging and interactive experiences, helping inform purchasing decisions so they can shop with confidence.' Personalized Size Recommendations and Fit Review Highlights help you know how a style fits and which size might work best for you, while Virtual Try-On, available for select styles, brings an in-store like experience to your mobile device. 'One of the biggest challenges with online fashion is knowing how something will fit or look on you,' Freshwater explains. 'With See It On Your Model, you can choose from real models with different sizes, skin tones, and hair colors—from XS to 4XL—and see how a product looks on someone like you.' The way it works is simple: Available in the Amazon Shopping app and mobile browser, just click on the 'Change Model' button in the lower right-hand corner of the product image, and a gallery of up to 40 real models to choose from will pop up. Pick the one that you'd like to see the item on and—voilà—your pick replaces the original model. Powered by GenAI technology, this interactive feature simulates how clothing looks on real models of all sizes (XS to 4XL), showing shoppers how garments will appear on different body types. 'We're seeing lower return rates with tools like See It On Your Model, because customers can better visualize the fit and look before buying,' Freshwater says. 'That's a win for them and for us.'
Cosmopolitan
20-05-2025
- Business
- Cosmopolitan
25 Amazon Summer Fashion Finds That Look Way More Expensive
Honestly, I've been daydreaming about summer since January. These days, all I think about are straw cowboy hats and bikinis, flip-flops and capris, and jorts. (Just generally jorts.) For me, this season's vibe is all about pieces that somehow manage to look put-together while feeling like I'm wearing next to nothing. And after going down a rabbit hole of inspo photos and trend forecasts, I've finally emerged with my definitive list of Amazon summer fashion finds that embody that exact said vibe without making you question your financial decisions. Why Amazon, you ask? Aside from its vast array of inventory, shopping on Amazon is just hella convenient. You can't deny that fast Prime shipping and those (sometimes too) honest customer reviews. I also just love being able to pick up some toothpaste and a candle along with my breezy summer dress. A one-stop shop if I ever did see one! What's made my summer wardrobe mission so much easier this year? When Cosmo got to catch up with Jenny Freshwater, VP of Amazon Fashion and Fitness, she gave us the inside scoop on their newest shopping tool, Rufus—aka a conversational AI here to help you narrow down your search. "You can ask a question like 'best running shoes for minimalist runners,' and then you can get the product list and filter," she explained. "Because we focus on having such a wide selection for our diverse customers, the other side of that is being able to take that wide selection and find exactly what you want." The difference between scrolling endlessly through search results and asking Rufus specific questions is genuinely game-changing. Say you're searching for a wedding guest dress for an outdoor venue where you know temperatures will hit 95 degrees (praying for this hypothetical you). Instead of wading through thousands of options, you could simply ask about breathable fabrics that won't show sweat stains, and immediately find three perfect candidates under $50. "It's like your virtual sales associate that you can ask anything in the middle of the night in your pajamas, and shop that way," Freshwater added, which explains why I've been having 2 AM conversations with an AI about whether linen-rayon blends actually stay wrinkle-free. Anyway. You betcha I used Rufus help me curate this list of summer fashion must-haves. Scroll down for my edit of summer wardrobe pieces from Amazon that'll have you covered from beach days to rooftop parties. I've done the digging so you don't have to, and these finds are seriously good, if I do say so myself.
ABC News
05-05-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Most polls underestimated Labor. How did they get it wrong?
As opinion polls firmed against Peter Dutton in the final weeks of the election campaign, Labor and Liberal operatives warned the numbers could be wrong, just like in 2019. In the end they were wrong, but in the other direction. Labor's national two-party preferred vote share is 55 per cent on current counting and expected to settle at around 54, according to Poll Bludger's William Bowe. Election essentials: YouGov, RedBridge, Resolve and Essential landed on 53, low but within the margin of error. Newspoll, which did Labor's internal polling, sat on 52. But disastrously for the Dutton campaign, its own internal pollster Freshwater was the most inaccurate, putting it on 51 — a result that would have seen Labor go backwards on election night. As late as the last week of the campaign, multiple sources told the ABC Liberal internal polling was showing it could pick up Labor seats like Gorton in outer Melbourne. And as competitors detected a shift in Queensland in the last fortnight, the Liberal internals showed no cause for alarm, giving Dutton the confidence he could win his own seat of Dickson and send Labor into minority. Instead, his campaign was sleepwalking into the worst loss in modern Liberal history. Read more about the federal election: Want even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 Catch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on Sampling challenges The most complicated and time-consuming task for pollsters is deciding who to poll. The difficulty is not just an appropriate sample size, but a representative sample — a poll of 20,000 people could be less accurate than a poll of 1,000 if those selected give a skewed picture of the Australian voting public. For this reason, pollsters ensure their samples are balanced by age, gender and other characteristics including prior voting history. When they can't achieve balance in who they survey, they correct the results by "weighting" the survey responses — giving extra weight to the answers of people who are under-represented in the sample. That imperfect process can account for polling differences. After the error of 2019, pollsters including YouGov, Ipsos, Essential and SEC Newgate signed a voluntary code of conduct, agreeing to publish their methodology. Photo shows Two people standing at polling booths casting a vote. Political polling has been around as long as democracy itself and its influence on the election cycle is undeniable, but insiders say it's never been more challenging to get right. Freshwater is not part of this group, but its pollster Michael Turner penned an opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review, which publishes Freshwater polls, seeking to explain why he "missed Labor's landslide". Mr Turner said Freshwater overestimated how many previous Labor voters who had voted "No" in the Voice referendum would shift to the Coalition, and how many minor party voters would preference the Coalition, and that its "fieldwork" finished too early to pick up a very late swing. Freshwater was not alone in controlling for referendum votes. YouGov, which publishes its methodology, also ensures appropriate sampling of "Yes" and "No" voters, but was able to correctly predict that Labor would substantially increase its majority. And most published polls detected a swing in Labor's direction in the final two or three weeks of the campaign, including tracking polls which included Queensland seats. How to poll the young? For all pollsters, another challenge is finding enough young people to make a sample representative without relying too heavily on weighting, a challenge which may explain any bias towards the Coalition. Polling methodology makes a significant difference to this, with young people far less likely to participate in phone calls, whether conducted robotically or by real people, and slightly more likely to fill out online polls. The need to verify users makes these online "panels" more expensive to do properly, leaving smaller pollsters reliant on phone calls vulnerable to samples which skew old, a particular problem in cities. RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras told the ABC the difficulty of sampling young voters meant RedBridge avoided publishing seat-by-seat polling, focusing instead on the quality of its sample at state level and its "tracking" poll of roughly 20 marginal seats. Kos Samaras says young voters are difficult to sample. ( Peter Healy ) "Seat polling is going to be very expensive," he said. "For individual seats, most online panels you can get about 200 responses at a federal electorate level, so you are limited." YouGov pollster Paul Smith said panel curation was central to his company's success. "Getting the younger demographic is particularly challenging, that's why we invest significant funds in having a panel that can provide the full demographic range of Australians so we can provide high-quality results," he said.
