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Economic Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Rising uncertainty over trade wars and de-dollarisation are pushing up global demand for gold — its supply is limited: Campbell R. Harvey
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Campbell R. Harvey is Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University. Speaking to Srijana Mitra Das, he discusses the value of gold — through the ages:A. Part of my work looks at gold historically and why this is so valuable now. Gold has a very long track record which spans millennia. It's easy to work with because it's a soft metal. It doesn't tarnish — it keeps its lustre and it has artistic worth. Also, gold has held its value through time. I tell two stories about that — one is the cost of a loaf of bread in Nebuchadnezzar's time around 2,500 years ago. There is historical data on how many loaves you could buy for an ounce of gold then. If you convert that to today's prices, it's about $7 a loaf — that's what I pay at my artisanal bakery other story dates from Roman times almost 2,000 years ago in Emperor Augustus' reign. There is data on how much Roman centurions were paid in gold as well as the coins themselves to discern the gold's purity — what Roman centurions were paid in gold 2,000 years ago would cover the wage of an army captain in the US today. That means gold has held its value over the long term.A. Yes. In recent years, the first driver has been the financialisation of gold — physical gold is awkward to store. People who might have wanted it in their portfolio didn't want to take the risk of buying the actual metal. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) were introduced in the United States in 2004 — that made it possible for the average investor to hold gold at 25 to 40 basis points a year, with the ETF provider taking care of storage. Institutional investors who didn't want to bother with warehousing bullion could do the same thing — hence, the price of gold increased. Previously, demand was unfulfilled because of institutional constraints — suddenly, those were broken and the price rose. Another force is what I call 'de-dollarisation' or the 'weaponisation' of the US dollar, particularly against Russia in terms of sanctions which have meant Russian entities being banned from the SWIFT system for transfer in US could do this, being the reserve currency of the world. I think certain countries — in particular, China — took note of that. The 'weaponisation' of the dollar spurred a move to be independent of it. Hence, the idea of 'de-dollarisation' with China taking actions consistent with that. One step towards doing this is to bolster the credibility of your own currency — to have gold in reserve does this and China's been a there is heightened uncertainty, given the potential for a trade war. In such times, people tend to increase their allocation to safe assets — gold is in that group. Another issue is a perception that the United States might not be the safe haven it was 10 or 20 years ago. When the US dollar suddenly becomes riskier and Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, some countries start thinking,'We need to diversify our reserve holdings and reduce dollar exposure.' So, you sell bonds — however, you need to replace them with something else. Gold is an option. This isn't just central banks — when uncertainty grows, institutional investors increase safe assets like consider supply and demand dynamics — gold's supply is very sticky, being a combination of mining and re-cycling. Mining supply doesn't move much. Even though gold's price has risen dramatically in recent years, actual mining supply has essentially stayed the same. It's hard to ramp up supply — opening a new mine takes years. Hence, gold prices are very sensitive to shifts in demand.A. Gold holds its value over the long term. I quoted two examples about that, one from 2,000 years ago and one from 2,500 years ago. Historically, gold has held its value over a very long horizon. That's not very relevant for most investors with a much shorter horizon though — and gold is an unreliable inflation hedge over shorter horizons. Its volatility is approximately the same as the S&P we look over the last 20 years, gold has more than held its value — it's actually gained in inflation-adjusted value. But if you look at the 20 years before that, gold underperformed inflation — it did not hold its value. The longer the horizon historically, the better gold is in terms of a hedge. However, gold's risk should also be measured by how it interacts with other assets in your portfolio. It turns out gold historically is uncorrelated with the stock makes it an attractive hedging property. In my research, I've looked at the last 11 major drawdowns in the S&P 500 — each had very large negative returns for the stock market. Gold, in 8 out of 11 situations, provided a positive return. In three, it was negative but that number was small. Gold could actually act to reduce a portfolio's risk — but, given its volatility, sometimes it'll work, sometimes, it won't, as the historical data shows expressed are personal
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Rising uncertainty over trade wars and de-dollarisation are pushing up global demand for gold — its supply is limited: Campbell R. Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey explains gold's enduring value, citing its historical stability from ancient times to today. He notes that the financialization of gold through ETFs and geopolitical factors like de-dollarization influence its price. While volatile in the short term, gold serves as a long-term store of value and a potential hedge against stock market downturns, offering portfolio diversification. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Campbell R. Harvey is Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University. Speaking to Srijana Mitra Das, he discusses the value of gold — through the ages:A. Part of my work looks at gold historically and why this is so valuable now. Gold has a very long track record which spans millennia. It's easy to work with because it's a soft metal. It doesn't tarnish — it keeps its lustre and it has artistic worth. Also, gold has held its value through time. I tell two stories about that — one is the cost of a loaf of bread in Nebuchadnezzar's time around 2,500 years ago. There is historical data on how many loaves you could buy for an ounce of gold then. If you convert that to today's prices, it's about $7 a loaf — that's what I pay at my artisanal bakery other story dates from Roman times almost 2,000 years ago in Emperor Augustus' reign. There is data on how much Roman centurions were paid in gold as well as the coins themselves to discern the gold's purity — what Roman centurions were paid in gold 2,000 years ago would cover the wage of an army captain in the US today. That means gold has held its value over the long term.A. Yes. In recent years, the first driver has been the financialisation of gold — physical gold is awkward to store. People who might have wanted it in their portfolio didn't want to take the risk of buying the actual metal. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) were introduced in the United States in 2004 — that made it possible for the average investor to hold gold at 25 to 40 basis points a year, with the ETF provider taking care of storage. Institutional investors who didn't want to bother with warehousing bullion could do the same thing — hence, the price of gold increased. Previously, demand was unfulfilled because of institutional constraints — suddenly, those were broken and the price rose. Another force is what I call 'de-dollarisation' or the 'weaponisation' of the US dollar, particularly against Russia in terms of sanctions which have meant Russian entities being banned from the SWIFT system for transfer in US could do this, being the reserve currency of the world. I think certain countries — in particular, China — took note of that. The 'weaponisation' of the dollar spurred a move to be independent of it. Hence, the idea of 'de-dollarisation' with China taking actions consistent with that. One step towards doing this is to bolster the credibility of your own currency — to have gold in reserve does this and China's been a there is heightened uncertainty, given the potential for a trade war. In such times, people tend to increase their allocation to safe assets — gold is in that group. Another issue is a perception that the United States might not be the safe haven it was 10 or 20 years ago. When the US dollar suddenly becomes riskier and Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, some countries start thinking,'We need to diversify our reserve holdings and reduce dollar exposure.' So, you sell bonds — however, you need to replace them with something else. Gold is an option. This isn't just central banks — when uncertainty grows, institutional investors increase safe assets like consider supply and demand dynamics — gold's supply is very sticky, being a combination of mining and re-cycling. Mining supply doesn't move much. Even though gold's price has risen dramatically in recent years, actual mining supply has essentially stayed the same. It's hard to ramp up supply — opening a new mine takes years. Hence, gold prices are very sensitive to shifts in demand.A. Gold holds its value over the long term. I quoted two examples about that, one from 2,000 years ago and one from 2,500 years ago. Historically, gold has held its value over a very long horizon. That's not very relevant for most investors with a much shorter horizon though — and gold is an unreliable inflation hedge over shorter horizons. Its volatility is approximately the same as the S&P we look over the last 20 years, gold has more than held its value — it's actually gained in inflation-adjusted value. But if you look at the 20 years before that, gold underperformed inflation — it did not hold its value. The longer the horizon historically, the better gold is in terms of a hedge. However, gold's risk should also be measured by how it interacts with other assets in your portfolio. It turns out gold historically is uncorrelated with the stock makes it an attractive hedging property. In my research, I've looked at the last 11 major drawdowns in the S&P 500 — each had very large negative returns for the stock market. Gold, in 8 out of 11 situations, provided a positive return. In three, it was negative but that number was small. Gold could actually act to reduce a portfolio's risk — but, given its volatility, sometimes it'll work, sometimes, it won't, as the historical data shows expressed are personal
Forbes
30-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Marketers Get More Responsibility, Clout And AI
This is the published version of Forbes' CMO newsletter, which offers the latest news for chief marketing officers and other messaging-focused leaders. Click here to get it delivered to your inbox every Wednesday. Marketers are getting both more responsibility and more clout , according to the most recent edition of the CMO Survey, conducted under the direction of Christine Moorman, a senior professor of business administration at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. On a 14-point scale, with 0 representing no change, 7 representing significant expansion and -7 representing significant weakening, the marketers who responded to the survey ranked the expansion of their role at 3.2, and their increased influence at 2.9. With more power and influence comes more scrutiny. Marketing leaders said that demonstrating impact on financial outcomes is their primary challenge. And in the last two years, marketers have seen at least a 10% increase on the pressure coming from CEOs (61% opposed to 51% in 2023) and CFOs (63% opposed to 52% in 2023). The study reveals that marketing leaders find their traditional emphasis on defending market position and investing in talent and capabilities is at odds with traditional C-suite objectives of innovation, growth and profitability. But CMOs are getting more done through the use of AI, which the survey found powers 17.2% of all marketing efforts—a 100% increase from 2022. Such integration is expected to increase to 44.2% within three years. Generative AI for all uses has also surged 116% in the last year, and the technology is now used in over 15.1% of all marketing activities. Survey respondents say AI has led to an 8.6% improvement in sales productivity, 8.5% increase in customer satisfaction and a 10.8% reduction in costs. The AI boom—which is coming somewhat late to the marketing world—is well-timed, as 43.5% of leaders reported that overall marketing spending is down, and nearly half said they are less optimistic about the U.S. economy than they were last quarter. The study showed that overall marketing budgets are still slowly increasing, but rates are lower—3.3% higher over the last 12 months. As tariffs, inflation and an overall economic slowdown roil consumer spending and marketing spend grows at a snail's pace, AI could prove a good assistant to ensure that brands and messages are still able to stay top of mind for consumers. Tuesday was President Donald Trump's 100th day of his second term, and the branding that his administration has put on the United States has negatively impacted tourism. Through insults to foreign countries and leaders, a global trade war, and prolonged detentions of both foreign tourists and legal U.S. residents with foreign citizenship—often for minor reasons—the U.S. is quickly shedding its once-welcoming image. And in the months leading up to the summer travel season, the negative branding is beginning to show. A survey of Canadians done by travel market research firm Longwoods International shows that 6 in 10 Canadians are unlikely to travel to the U.S. in the next year because of the Trump Administration's policies and political statements, Forbes' Suzanne Rowan Kelleher writes. More than a third of the people surveyed actually intended to travel to the U.S., but have now changed those plans. Only 42% believed the U.S. welcomes visitors from Canada, and just 38% said they think the U.S. 'values international visitors.' This change in perception is likely already impacting the economy, and it could be felt more acutely in the coming months. Canadians were the top international visitors to the U.S. last year, with 20.4 million people spending $20.5 billion here. But it isn't just Canadians who are now staying away. The number of international visitors in March was down 14% year-over-year, Kelleher writes. There were 17% fewer visitors from Western Europe—after the U.K. and Germany put out travel warnings about potential border detentions for tourists. Every region of the world saw fewer people visiting the U.S. last month, except for the Middle East, which increased by more than a fifth, and Eastern Europe, which posted a slight increase. While fewer international visitors are coming to the U.S., domestic travelers are also planning to stay home. Fears of a recession are causing many people to cut back on their travel plans. With fewer summertime flights being booked, Southwest Airlines CEO Bob Jordan has said that the airline sector is already in a recession, writes Forbes senior contributor Alex Ledsom. Other major airlines have pulled their guidance for the year in the wake of softening demand—and the possibility of deeper and more prolonged economic pain. Last week, American Airlines was the latest to withdraw its guidance for the year, Kelleher wrote. 'We're taking a very cautious, even a negative, approach to growth as we take a look out to the rest of the year,' CEO Robert Isom said on the earnings call. Last week, Meta's oversight board urged the company to bring greater transparency, consistency and fairness to content moderation on its platforms. At the beginning of this year, the social media giant changed its policies on content moderation, abandoning third-party fact checking and softening its hateful conduct policies. The company said the changes, which were announced January 7, would improve free speech and reduce censorship. The board issued decisions for 11 different cases that deal with gender identity, apartheid, anti-immigrant speech, riots, and speech against people with disabilities. They wrote that Meta needs to live up to its public commitment to uphold the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights, and assess how its policies are impacting LGBTQ individuals, as well as minors, racial minorities and immigrants. Meta's policy change was controversial from the start, explicitly saying that 'allegations of mental illness or abnormality when based on gender or sexual orientation, given political and religious discourse about transgenderism and homosexuality' would be allowed. The policy mirrors the community-based 'fact checking' on Elon Musk's X—which has seen its user engagement numbers drop and political polarization skyrocket after the centibillionaire bought the platform in 2022. Analysts said Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg made the change to appease then-incoming President Trump, who has railed against moderation of hateful, inciting and false speech on social media platforms. Meta told Forbes it will respond to the recommendations within 60 days. Photo Illustration by Algi Febri Sugita/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Meta, which also has an AI division, launched a standalone app this week featuring an AI chatbot and a 'discover' feed that allows users to see how others are using it. The app gives users access to many AI functions, including image generation, editing and a voice mode that allows it to be interacted with while using other apps. It also interacts with Meta's Ray-Ban glasses. While most competitors in the AI chatbot space released their own apps long ago, Meta isn't exactly late in development. Its AI assistant has lived in its social networking apps for about a year, and the standalone app can draw from users' Facebook and Instagram accounts for more personalized interactions. A new way to bring an artist's vibe to AI music creation—without treading on their copyright—is also getting attention this week. Jen, which is headed by music tech veteran Shara Senderoff and advised by Grammy winner Imogen Heap, launched StyleFilters to allow users to bring a particular artist's style to their AI-created music, writes Forbes senior contributor David Bloom. StyleFilters lets Jen users choose artists' songs and the level of influence they want it to have in their creation. The artists who license their songs receive 70% of the resulting revenues. Illustration by Cecilia Runxi Zhang for Forbes; Photos by Getty Images: LAW Ho Ming; Michael A. McCoy/Stringer In the last three months, one of the personal brands that has fallen the farthest is that of Elon Musk. Public perception of the world's richest man was already drifting into the fringe at the beginning of last year as he launched the ostentatious—and largely unsuccessful—Tesla Cybertruck, waged a highly public battle for a massive $50 billion pay package that was invalidated by a Delaware judge, and turned the social media platform formerly known as Twitter into a den of inflammatory conservative speech. But then came his mega-support for Trump's candidacy and his high-profile role as head of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency—which led to his highly unpopular chainsawing of the federal government workforce. All of this came to roost in Tesla's most recent earnings report last week. Income plummeted 71%, buffeted by a 20% drop in automotive revenues and 9% decline in sales. Musk told investors that he'd soon be stepping back from the federal government to return to Tesla, but that's unlikely to solve the EV maker's problems, writes Forbes' Alan Ohnsman. Musk's personal brand has been partially responsible for Tesla's downfall. A Washington Post-ABC News poll last week found that 57% of people disapprove of Musk's job in the Trump Administration, and a March YouGov/Yahoo News survey found that two-thirds of Americans would not consider buying or leasing a Tesla, with most citing Musk as the reason. Sue Benson, CEO and founder of U.K.-based marketing firm The Behaviours Agency, told Ohnsman that Tesla is now at the same type of inflection point as Volkswagen amid the 2015 emissions scandal, which led to a major loss of confidence in its brand. 'Except this time, it's not about the product. It's about the person,' Benson said. 'It's too late to separate man and brand. And in the meantime, it's lost its EV advantage.' Other car makers have picked up the EV baton first run by Tesla. In the last few years, several electric models have become available in the U.S. from General Motors, Hyundai, Kia, Honda and Rivian, as well as BYD in China. Tesla currently sells 43% of all EVs, down from 75% three years ago. How can Tesla get its sales and market share back? It's highly tricky from a product standpoint, writes Ohnsman. On the earnings call, Tesla said it's working on refreshed and less-expensive versions of its Y and 3 models—not exactly a winning long-term strategy, analysts say. Tesla's new initiatives aren't in the consumer EV realm, with the company focusing energy on autonomous Cybercabs and humanoid robots—two areas that aren't likely to become profit centers in the near future. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs will negatively impact Tesla's batteries, which rely on cells made in China, making it even harder for the company to post a profit. In today's highly polarized society, it's important for brands to connect with customers through social well-being and retain their trust. Here are ways to determine the right paths to bring your brand to the correct place to resonate with your customers' emotions—but not alienate them. Being a great leader means continuing to work on yourself through professional development and training. Here's why leadership training is never complete, and should be seen as a power move. Video-sharing behemoth YouTube celebrated its 20th anniversary last week. As of then, how many videos had been uploaded to the site? A. About 15 billion B. About 20 billion C. About 50 billion D. About 100 billion See if you got the answer right here.
Yahoo
07-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Interactive Brokers Nominates Lori Conkling to its Board of Directors
GREENWICH, Conn., March 07, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), an automated global electronic broker, announced the nomination of Lori Conkling as an independent director of the firm. Ms. Conkling will bring a wealth of knowledge to Interactive Brokers. As Head of TV & Film Licensing at Netflix, she oversees content acquisition and business development for their ad-free and ad-supported platforms. Before joining Netflix, she held leadership positions at Google, including Global Head of TV, Film and Sports for YouTube and YouTube TV. "We are pleased to nominate Lori to the Board of Directors and look forward to leveraging her expertise to enhance our profile across the media landscape," said Thomas Peterffy, Founder and Chairman of Interactive Brokers. "A successful senior executive with over 25 years of experience in the media space, Ms. Conkling will be a valuable resource helping to inform our media strategy and build brand awareness." Ms. Conkling has also served as Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development for Digital Enterprises at NBCUniversal, Executive Vice President of US and Canadian Distribution at A+E Networks, and Vice President of National Accounts for Disney and ESPN. She began her career with Accenture, where she analyzed and developed corporate strategies for publishing, film, and telecommunications companies. Ms. Conkling holds an M.B.A. from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of Southern California. She sits on the Boards of Teach for America and the Fuqua School of Business's Board of Visitors. The Best Informed Investors Choose Interactive Brokers About Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.: Interactive Brokers Group affiliates provide automated trade execution and custody of securities, commodities, foreign exchange, and forecast contracts around the clock on over 160 markets in numerous countries and currencies from a single unified platform to clients worldwide. We serve individual investors, hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, financial advisors and introducing brokers. Our four decades of focus on technology and automation have enabled us to equip our clients with a uniquely sophisticated platform to manage their investment portfolios. We strive to provide our clients with advantageous execution prices and trading, risk and portfolio management tools, research facilities and investment products, all at low or no cost, positioning them to achieve superior returns on investments. Interactive Brokers has consistently earned recognition as a top broker, garnering multiple awards and accolades from respected industry sources such as Barron's, Investopedia, and many others. View source version on Contacts Contacts for Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Media: Katherine Ewert, media@ Sign in to access your portfolio
