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CNN
02-04-2025
- Business
- CNN
Trump set to roll out sweeping new ‘Liberation Day' tariffs
Update: Date: 1 min ago Title: Consumers are feeling very wary of tariffs Content: America's economic engine is running a little rough these days. Consumer confidence is cratering, debt burdens are growing, people are worrying more about their jobs and they're pulling back on some spending out of caution. High inflation and high interest rates have contributed to vulnerabilities among consumers, making them all the more susceptible at a time when the sheer unpredictability of the Trump administration's policies are chilling spending and investment plans. And now, massive tariffs are set to be rolled out, raising the cost on almost everything Americans buy. 'The consumer sees darkening clouds for the economy ahead,' said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds. Consumer spending powers more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity; so if that engine falters, the economic consequences can start spiraling. Update: Date: 21 min ago Title: Tariffs on lumber and materials could exacerbate housing affordability, builders warn Content: Softwood lumber — which is sourced from the likes of pine, spruce, firs and other conifers — is prized for its light weight, workability and strength. As such, its applications are vast, but it's a critical ingredient in the US homebuilding industry. And considering that 30% of the softwood lumber consumed in the US is imported (with Canada accounting for north of 80% of those imports), American homebuilders have been sounding the alarm that the tariffs could further exacerbate the housing affordability crisis. Builders estimate that tariffs on lumber and other critical homebuilding materials could up the average cost of a home by $9,200, according to the March National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Economists expect that lumber prices could increase in the near-term and caution that expanding the domestic timber and lumber industry could take time. A rosier outlook: However, some within the lumber sector say the new tariffs, especially on imports coming from Canada, would help level the playing the field. They also say the existing US industry has a significant amount of existing capacity that's not currently being utilized. Jason Brochu, co-president of Pleasant River Lumber in Maine, said his two mills in the Pine Tree State are running at 60% capacity but could increase its workforce and production in a matter of months, if the demand is there. 'We could ramp up fairly quickly,' Brochu said in an interview with CNN. 'The saw mill industry has modernized a lot, and speaking for our location and our region, bringing in the employment isn't a major impediment.' 'It can happen fairly quickly,' he added. Update: Date: 28 min ago Title: Trump's friends and allies called him with tariff ideas until the eleventh hour, sources say Content: President Donald Trump spent much of yesterday huddled with his top trade advisers, with many friends and allies calling him up until the eleventh hour with ideas on how best to move forward with his tariff plan, sources familiar with the talks told CNN. The plan will be unveiled in the Rose Garden, his first event in the White House space of his second term, and will include the pomp and circumstance the president expects to accompany an announcement of this magnitude, two White House officials told CNN. The event was initially scheduled to begin at 3 p.m. ET, but was later moved to 4 the two White House officials told CNN — notable given it will now kick off after markets close. The announcement comes as top Trump administration officials struggle to articulate what the president's endgame is. Trump officials, including White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday, have repeatedly urged the public to trust Trump and have pointed to the economy during his first term as justification. Update: Date: 20 min ago Title: Car dealership owner says he'll "likely take a $20,000 hit" on a vehicle if it's not shipped out today Content: Dave Kelleher, the owner of a David Dodge Chrysler Jeep Ram car dealership in Glen Mills, Pennsylvania, spoke to CNN about how the impending tariffs may impact his business. Kelleher gave an example of a car that could 'go from $30,000 ostensibly to $37,500, and it's that quick,' he said, snapping his fingers. 'And that kind of change in price moves that payment $175 a month, and our customers — they're middle-class people — they just can't afford that kind of bump.' Kelleher also told CNN's Danny Freeman that he has a customer who ordered a $86,000 Ram truck — which will skyrocket in price if it's not shipped today, causing Kelleher to likely take a $20,000 hit. 'We're trying as hard as we can to get that thing off the line today. If that can on a train today, it'll be without tariff. If it gets on the train tomorrow, it's going to have a 25% tariff. That $86,000 car becomes a $103,000 car overnight and that customer, he's going to turn to me. I'm most likely going to eat that. That's a $20,000 hit that I'm going to take,' he said. Kelleher said he thinks President Donald Trump's aim to bring more jobs to the US is 'admirable.' But he added: 'I'm telling you right now, the impacts of these tariffs are going to make Americans lose jobs.' Remember: Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports and a 25% tariff on foreign cars that is set to go into effect on Thursday. A 25% tariff on foreign auto parts is set to go into effect by early May. The president said this past weekend that he doesn't care if automakers hike prices because of his tariffs, reiterating, 'people are going to start buying American cars.' Update: Date: 33 min ago Title: Analysis: Here's what Trump actually wants from tariffs Content: President Donald Trump says he believes tariffs are a panacea: a catch-all economic tool that can restore America's manufacturing prowess, bring foreign nations to heel on key disputes, restore the balance of trade and bring in gobs of money that can help pay off the US deficit and reduce Americans' tax burdens. Trump is correct that tariffs can help fulfill many if not all of those promises: When used effectively, tariffs can help boost production at home by making foreign goods more expensive. Because America is an enormous and diverse economy that doesn't rely on trade as much as its neighbors, the United States could use tariffs to inflict serious damage on other countries' economies without plunging itself into a recession. Revenue raised by tariffs could help offset some of its deficits. But one major problem with Trump's plan is that tariffs can't achieve all of those goals at the same time: For example, if tariffs are a pressure campaign, they have to go away once the countries acquiesce — which means there will be no tariffs to restore the trade balance. If tariffs are designed to promote America's manufacturing sector, they can't also raise revenue to offset deficits. And if Americans switch to 'Made in the USA' goods, then who pays the tariff on foreign products? As the saying goes, if it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. Update: Date: 30 min ago Title: Democratic representative: "Trump's tariffs are taxes on the average person" Content: Democratic Rep. Mark Pocan said President Donald Trump's expected tariffs on Wednesday are coming out of 'either spite or who he's upset with' and will lead to consumers paying for them. 'Trump's tariffs are taxes on the average person. There's reasons to have tariffs. If someone's dumping cheap steel in this country, we should put tariffs on it to support the American workers and the industry. But that's not what's happening. This is across the board tariffs that somehow Donald Trump does out of either spite or who he's upset with or whatever rationale he's using,' Pocan said Wednesday on 'CNN News Central' with John Berman, Kate Bolduan and Sara Sidner. He continued, 'But at the end of the day, the people who pay it are the consumers.' Pocan said Republicans who agree with Trump's agenda will pay a price at the polls. 'The attacks that we see coming from the Trump administration and from Elon Musk right now are epic, and people don't like them. And Republicans who are complicit are going to pay a price,' he said. Update: Date: 51 min ago Title: US stocks open lower ahead of Trump's unveiling of tariffs Content: US stocks opened lower Wednesday as investors await President Donald Trump's announcement on tariffs. The Dow was down 330 points, or 0.78%. The S&P 500 fell 1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 1.43%. Trump's back and forth on his trade policy has roiled markets, leaving Wall Street eager for clarity, though bracing for continued uncertainty. 'Investor sentiment remains skittish,' said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a Tuesday note. Analysts at Bank of America Global Research said in a Tuesday note that without relief from uncertainty, stocks could slide further in the short term. 'It's very tough to know what to expect, and we don't even know what the tariffs actually are,' said Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management. Update: Date: 43 min ago Title: Why a "relief rally" on Wall Street would likely be short lived Content: Sometimes, even bad news can be good news on Wall Street. Markets have been on a knife's edge this week, awaiting President Donald Trump's tariff announcement this afternoon, and there's a sense among some investors that any news, even if it's bad for the long-term health of the economy, will bring a level of clarity that investors have been craving. That could spark a brief 'relief rally,' Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading, said in a note late Tuesday. That's what often happens when Wall Street expects a company to have terrible earnings — once the earnings come out, the stock might rally or remain flat, because at least investors can see what they're dealing with. The anticipation is worse than the event. But this time may be different, according to O'Rourke. 'There can be a relief rally, but there won't be certainty,' he writes. Tariffs will likely bring retaliation, and retaliation brings escalation. 'The situation is likely to remain fluid for some time,' O'Rourke said. 'Ideally, several key nations would drop tariffs and global trade would benefit. That would be the best-case scenario, but it appears nearly impossible.' Update: Date: 9 min ago Title: Your questions, answered: How are international leaders responding? Content: 'What has been the response from US trading partners and international leaders? Could these tariffs lead to retaliatory measures, and what might these look like?' are some of the questions asked by Amedee, in California. Many international leaders have been quick to condemn the previewed tariffs, warning that they don't want to enter into a trade war, and saying their countries will take strong countermeasures if they are imposed. Here's what some of them had to say: • Europe: On Tuesday, head of the European Union, Ursula Von der Leyen said bloc had a 'strong plan' for striking back at the US, if required. Already, Europe has responded to Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs by unveiling countermeasures on up to 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of American goods exports, including tariffs on boats, bourbon and motorbikes. • Canada, China, Japan and South Korea are also readying retaliation against Trump's looming tariffs. The three Asian countries plan to announce retaliatory tariffs in lockstep, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said Monday. They held economic talks Sunday for the first time in five years, vowing to bolster fair trade and strengthen economic ties among them. • Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney told President Donald Trump on Friday that his nation would retaliate against the US with tariffs of its own if Trump pressed forward with his promised levies. • United Kingdom: Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his country would take a 'pragmatic approach' to its response and that a 'trade war is in nobody's interest.' Update: Date: 47 min ago Title: Here's what Federal Reserve officials have said about Trump's expected tariffs Content: President Donald Trump's trade war, which is expected to kick into high gear Wednesday, will undoubtably affect the US economy. Federal Reserve officials are watching closely how everything plays out. Trump's economic team is still hashing out the details of the new duties in the eleventh hour, but economists widely expect Trump's tariffs in most cases to raise inflation and weaken economic growth. The Fed is tasked by Congress to tame inflation and promote full employment. Most Fed officials in recent remarks have acknowledged the high level of uncertainty stemming from the dizzying back-and-forth on tariffs. Most have also said that it's still not clear how the economy will ultimately respond to Trump's shock therapy. Here's what Fed officials have said recently on tariffs. Update: Date: 39 min ago Title: Your questions, answered: Who pays the tariff? Content: 'Who pays the tariffs imposed by the White House: the government of the foreign country? Or, American based businesses that buy goods and services from other countries?,' Ruth, from the Midwest asks. In response your question, Ruth, it has been at times confusing identifying who has to pay the tariff. President Donald Trump and members of his administration have often shrugged off concerns about the additional cost tariffs present for US businesses, claiming foreign countries are the ones who pay for it. That's not exactly true, though. Domestic businesses that import products into the country pay the tariffs up front, contrary to Trump's claims that exporting nations foot the bill. The actual transaction occurs at the 328 points of entry into the US designated by Customs and Border Protection to take in imports, including airports, railways, roads and ports. At those ports of entry, CBP agents collect tariff revenue from the domestic businesses importing the products, which is calculated based on how the merchandise is classified and where it came from, said Ted Murphy, a lawyer at Sidley Austin who specializes in advising businesses on customs compliance issues told CNN in March. But Trump isn't entirely wrong in saying that other nations pay for tariffs levied on them, Murphy said. That's because when businesses know they'll have to spend more to import goods from one country versus another, they may decide it makes more financial sense to find a new supplier elsewhere or, in Trump's ideal world, shift their production to the US. In either case, the economy of the country whose goods are tariffed can suffer from the loss of revenue, potentially resulting in job losses. But exporting nations often don't just accept tariffs without fighting back. Update: Date: 48 min ago Title: UK prime minister says "trade war is in nobody's interest" as Britain braces for Trump tariffs Content: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his country will take a 'pragmatic approach' in its response to looming tariffs from his US counterpart's administration. 'A trade war is in nobody's interest and the country deserves, and we will take, a calm, pragmatic approach,' Starmer said today to Parliament. 'That is why constructive talks are progressing to agree a wider economic prosperity deal with the US. That's why we are working with all industries and sectors likely to be impacted. Our decisions will always be guided by our national interests, and that's why we have prepared for all eventualities, and we will rule nothing out,' he added. On Monday, a spokesperson for Starmer said that the British government has been 'actively preparing for all eventualities,' according to a Reuters report. The spokesperson told reporters that talks between the UK and US to strike a deal to avoid the tariffs will likely continue beyond Wednesday, Reuters reported. Update: Date: 1 hr 22 min ago Title: Trump was still weighing tariff options late yesterday, as pros and cons of each idea come into focus Content: As President Donald Trump and his team worked Tuesday to 'perfect' the tariffs he plans to unveil in the Rose Garden, he continued to weigh ideas that differed dramatically in size and scope — underscoring just how divergent some of his options are in the hours before his announcement. As of late yesterday, the White House had not arrived at a final decision. These were still under consideration, according to people familiar with the matter: Trump and his aides were also studying new, additional options, including a more targeted flat-rate option just on certain countries. The tariffs will go into effect immediately, the White House said yesterday, but added he would be open to negotiation once they're in place. Trump's Rose Garden event is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET, just as US markets close. A number of lawmakers and industry executives have been invited to attend, according to a person familiar with the planning. Under debate is not only the plans themselves, but what Trump hopes to achieve from them. He has pointed to tariffs both to reorient global trade and as a negotiating tactic, and his aides have also said they will also be revenue raisers to offset planned tax cuts. Update: Date: 54 min ago Title: China, Japan and South Korea plan joint response to Trump's tariffs, Chinese state media says Content: China, Japan and South Korea will respond to President Donald Trump's looming tariffs in lockstep, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said Monday. The three Asian countries held economic talks on Sunday for the first time in five years, vowing to bolster fair trade and strengthen economic ties among them — just days before the United States announces sweeping tariffs on all trading partners. On Wednesday, Trump will unveil wide-ranging tariffs that match the ones foreign countries impose on the US, so-called reciprocal tariffs. Long-time US allies, such as South Korea, won't be spared, Trump has said. 'South Korea's average tariff is four times higher,' Trump said earlier this month in his joint address to Congress. 'Think of that: four times higher. And we give so much help militarily and in so many other ways to South Korea, but that's what happens.' Meanwhile, Trump has renewed trade tensions with China, levying 20% duties on the country, on top of the tariffs he already imposed in his first term. China has responded swiftly to Trump's tariffs, imposing 15% duties on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton imports from the US. Update: Date: 1 hr 40 min ago Title: Stock futures slide as investors brace for tariffs Content: US stock futures were lower Wednesday morning ahead of President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, set to be unveiled at 4 p.m. ET. Dow futures were lower by 311 points, or 0.74%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.95%. Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.15%. Stocks are coming off two volatile sessions this week. The S&P 500 on Monday sank as much as 1.65% in the morning before fluctuating and closing 0.55% higher. The index on Tuesday fell 0.95% in the morning but closed 0.38% higher. Wall Street is eager for a boost in markets on more clarity about Trump's tariffs, though some investors acknowledge that uncertainty might linger beyond this afternoon's announcement. 'We would anticipate not getting answers to everything [today],' said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management Group. Hainlin said there's still uncertainty around retaliatory tariffs from other countries and whether the Trump administration could shift its policy. 'Tariff and counter tariff concerns continue to dominate markets,' said Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note. Update: Date: 39 min ago Title: Your questions, answered: What is a tariff? Content: In response to our call-out asking for any questions you may have about tariffs, we've received a question from one of you: what is it? Let us explain! Simply, a tariff is a tax on goods coming from another country. It's typically structured as a percentage of the value of the import and can vary based on where the goods are coming from and what the products are. Domestic businesses that import products into the country pay the tariffs up front, with the actual transaction taking place at the 328 points of entry into the US designated by Customs and Border Protection to take in imports, including airports, railways, roads and ports. At those ports of entry, CBP agents collect tariff revenue from the domestic businesses importing the products, which is calculated based on how the merchandise is classified and where it came from, said Ted Murphy, a lawyer at Sidley Austin who specializes in advising businesses on customs compliance issues. Update: Date: 38 min ago Title: What we know so far about "Liberation Day": Nothing, pretty much Content: President Donald Trump says today is 'Liberation Day' and has floated a number of ideas, proposals and plans ahead of his 4 p.m. ET Rose Garden announcement. The truth is we don't really know what to expect today. Sources with knowledge of the president's plans tell CNN Trump may not finalize his plans until right before the announcement. That uncertainty has upended stock markets, consumer sentiment and business' hiring, because it's hard to make a financial decision when you don't know what's coming down the pike. Despite Trump and his advisers publicly suggesting multiple proposals — including reciprocal tariffs, taxes on particular products and even across-the-board tariffs — we don't know which if any (or all) of those plans Trump will enact, or whether there will be any exemptions, exceptions, carve-outs, or granularity in the plan that could significantly affect the impact of the tariffs that will be implemented. Trade policy is extraordinarily complex. For example, if we get reciprocal tariffs, will the United States match the complex tariff schedules for literally every single product imported from every nation? Or will America tax particular products or certain nations? Will the United States match graduated tariffs that increase based on import targets? We may get some clarity today. We may not. We'll find out at 4 p.m. ET. Update: Date: 38 min ago Title: Do you have questions about today's expected tariffs? We're here to help Content: Welcome to our coverage of what President Donald Trump has dubbed 'Liberation Day,' which is redrawing economic agreements with the US's trading partners. While the details of the new levies remain unclear, Trump has teased everything from reciprocal tariffs on all countries to the enactment of delayed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. There will be a lot of news to sort through today as we learn more details about the expected tariffs, and we'll be working to unpack exactly what these policies will mean for American consumers (and their wallets). If you have any questions about the tariffs, let us know in the form below. We're bringing you the latest responses and reactions throughout the day right here. Update: Date: 2 hr 49 min ago Title: Most Americans think tariffs are negative for the US economy, a new poll finds Content: Many Americans say tariffs hurt the nation's economy and they expect President Donald Trump's policies to increase inflation, according to a new Marquette Law School poll released this morning. A 58% majority say they think that, in general, imposing tariffs on products imported from other countries hurts the US economy, with 28% saying it helps, and 14% that it doesn't make much difference. The survey didn't ask about Trump's specific plans for tariffs, details of which have remained largely up in the air. Fifty-eight percent also say they think Trump's policy proposals will increase inflation, with 30% saying they expect them to decrease it, and 12% expecting them to have no effect. The poll puts Trump's overall job approval at 46%, with 54% disapproving, roughly on par with other recent polling. The Marquette Law School poll was conducted from March 17 to 27 and surveyed 1,021 US adults, using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative online panel. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Update: Date: 3 hr 17 min ago Title: "I'm not sure we're going to be liberated from all the uncertainty," investor worries Content: Wall Street is desperate for clarity on tariffs as President Donald Trump prepares to lay out his 'Liberation Day' trade strategy on Wednesday. 'We need the rules of the game, but we don't even know what the playing field is. Is it a soccer pitch, a basketball court or a ping pong table?' Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told CNN in a phone interview. Trade war fears and confusion have rocked markets for weeks. US stock futures are pointing to a modestly lower open on Wednesday, hours before Trump's Rose Garden event on tariffs. 'I'm not sure we're going to be liberated from all the uncertainty,' Sonders said. The Schwab executive said that even once the broad trade plan is announced, key questions will remain, including how consumers and businesses will react, what happens to inflation and what the Federal Reserve will do in response. Still, market veterans told CNN said that if Trump announces tariffs short of the worst-case 20% universal tariff, US stocks could experience a short-term relief rally. 'Better or worse often matters more than good or bad when it comes to short-term market reactions,' Sonders said. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, told CNN that Wall Street is bracing for a 'sledgehammer, not a scalpel' on 'Liberation Day.' He said investors have been frustrated by the 'haphazard' way tariffs have been rolled out by Trump. 'It seems like they're making the rules up as they go along, and that's probably not far from reality,' Hogan said. Update: Date: 3 hr 23 min ago Title: China says Beijing would "counterattack" if the US continues to engage in tariffs-related "blackmail" Content: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in comments published Tuesday by state broadcaster CCTV that Beijing would 'counterattack' if the US continues to engage in 'blackmail' over tariffs. ''America First' should not be American bullying, and it should not build its own interests on the basis of damaging the legitimate rights and interests of other countries,' he was quoted as telling RT, a state-owned Russian news group. Update: Date: 38 min ago Title: What to expect on "Liberation Day" Content: For weeks, President Donald Trump has promoted April 2 as 'Liberation Day' in America, when a number of massive tariffs will be announced to fulfill the administration's ambitious economic agenda. Trump is set to unveil his tariff plan at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday in the first Rose Garden event of his second term, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday. He posted on Truth Social this morning, previewing his afternoon announcement, saying, 'IT'S LIBERATION DAY IN AMERICA!' 'This is obviously a very big day,' Leavitt said. 'He is with his trade and tariff team right now, perfecting it to make sure this is a perfect deal for the American people and the American worker.' Leavitt said it is ultimately up to Trump to decide what tariffs to impose. He and his advisers have contradicted themselves over the past days and weeks as they have tried to set expectations about what would be announced on April 2. 'He has a brilliant team of trade advisers,' Leavitt said Monday, listing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, trade adviser Peter Navarro, senior aide Stephen Miller and Vice President JD Vance. Update: Date: 3 hr 23 min ago Title: Markets are jittery ahead of tariff rollout Content: President Donald Trump's tariff proposals have kept investors in a cloud of uncertainty, and stocks after coming off a dismal first quarter. The S&P 500 fell 4.6% across the first quarter, recording its worst start to a year since 2022 and its worst quarter since September 2022. The Nasdaq Composite fell 10.4% across the first quarter, posting its worst start to a year since 2020 and its worst quarter since June 2022. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against six foreign currencies, is down almost 4% this year, its worst start to any year since 2016. That's because traders had expected Trump to usher in a pro-business boom, enabling the stock market to continue its historic run. But his commitment to an economic agenda that prioritizes tariffs has left investors perplexed. 'The uncertainty level is still high, and nobody really knows what to expect,' said Thomas Martin, a senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.
Yahoo
01-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The American consumer is on the ropes. Tariffs — and anxiety — could deliver the knockout blow
America's economic engine is running a little rough these days. Consumer confidence is cratering, debt burdens are growing, people are worrying more about their jobs and they're pulling back on some spending out of caution. Still, while the overall fundamentals that prop up the consumer remain solid, the risks have heightened significantly. High inflation and high interest rates have contributed to vulnerabilities among consumers, making them all the more susceptible at a time when the sheer unpredictability of the Trump administration's policies — including massive tariffs that are projected to result in higher prices — are chilling spending and investment plans. 'The consumer sees darkening clouds for the economy ahead,' Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, wrote last Friday after two closely watched economic reports painted a pained picture of the American consumer. The Commerce Department reported that inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose just 0.1% in February as Americans shored up their savings accounts, while a separate survey showed that consumer sentiment plunged 12% in March. 'And while they may not always be right, if they do not start spending again, this latest negative reading on confidence will become a reality,' Rupkey added. Consumer spending powers more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity; so if that engine falters, the economic consequences can start spiraling. 'Consumers, they need willingness and ability,' Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America, told CNN. 'The willingness (consumer confidence) they don't have; the ability (the income) is waning away.' While Friday's Commerce Department data showed that personal income posted solid gains for the second consecutive month, real (inflation-adjusted) income after taxes is up just 1.8% year-over-year. 'That's pretty weak,' North said. 'It's not zero, but it's pretty weak.' If both disposable income and confidence are decaying, drops in core spending are likely to follow, he said. However, it also remains unclear whether the tepid January and February spending were reflections of recessionary or inflationary fears or if they were merely a step back after a purchasing surge in the finals months of last year, said Shannon Grein, Wells Fargo economist. 'While real spending came in weak, and we had some downward revisions to the prior month's data, I just think it's a little too soon to write off the consumer,' Grein said. Wages continue to outpace inflation, and overall income growth has been strong thanks to a still-tight labor market. However, a lot is riding on the continued health and stability of the jobs market. 'That's the big risk: Does this labor market data begin to turn in a way that causes consumers to really pull back on spending?' she said. 'But the ultimate fundamental for the household sector is income, and that's still in a decent position.' Still, Grein cautions, that's not the case for all households. An ongoing theme of the post-pandemic recovery has been a widening bifurcation of American household finances. Lower-income and younger consumers are struggling more, living paycheck to paycheck and stand to face the brunt of tariff pressure, she said. Debt balances have been on the rise, along with delinquencies. 'We see that lower-income and younger borrowers are driving those delinquency rates higher — they've maxed out,' she said. However, on a macro level, the health of consumers' mortgage loans — which are the largest component of overall US household debt — are serving as a notable offset, she added. 'Mortgage delinquencies are only approaching pre-Covid levels, where they were sitting at historic lows,' she said. 'The equity held in the single-family housing market is still near an all-time high.' Still, she cautioned, the longer the uncertainty continues to drag on, the greater the chances that it could make people and businesses 'act in funky ways.' 'I think the uncertainty of it just leads to more behavioral outcomes than just a simple implementation of a tariff could or would,' she said. 'The recent data are posing this question of, 'Is this all just temporary tariff effects, where people are just trying to act on the uncertainty?' Or is this a new sign of weakness that's finally showing up in the data?' And while a recession is not the base case for Grein nor Wells Fargo, an overall cooldown is likely. 'I am bracing for a slowdown in growth, just based on this wait-and-see approach that's happening for businesses, households and the [Federal Reserve],' she said. 'I don't think we're too far gone, but I do get more worried the longer this uncertainty persists from a growth perspective.' Victor Yarbrough is cognizant of that widening gap. He's one of three brothers behind Brough Brothers Distillery, the first Black-owned bourbon distillery in Kentucky. Brough Brothers' original distillery is located where the brothers grew up — Louisville's West End, a section of town that was once considered a 'Harlem of the South' but has suffered economically, especially in recent decades. Times appear to be getting harder for some residents, Yarbrough said in an interview with CNN. 'Two blocks away, there's a church that has food drives, we've seen a lot more people carrying food baskets away each time,' he said. 'That's telling me that for a lot of people — even in an economically depressed area — things are getting worse.' At the same time, Brough Brothers is in the midst of a massive expansion that includes a second, larger facility — complete with an event space — across town and has been planning (until just recently) to broaden its international distribution. The European Union and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on American whiskey and bourbon have thrown those plans into disarray. Yarbrough said his company is doing everything it can to adapt but is concerned about how his customers will be able to navigate these times if prices of many goods go up. 'We're very competitively priced, but the reality is, if people don't have jobs, then they can't spend,' he said. 'We're not a necessity. We're not like eggs and milk.' Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
01-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The American consumer is on the ropes. Tariffs — and anxiety — could deliver the knockout blow
America's economic engine is running a little rough these days. Consumer confidence is cratering, debt burdens are growing, people are worrying more about their jobs and they're pulling back on some spending out of caution. Still, while the overall fundamentals that prop up the consumer remain solid, the risks have heightened significantly. High inflation and high interest rates have contributed to vulnerabilities among consumers, making them all the more susceptible at a time when the sheer unpredictability of the Trump administration's policies — including massive tariffs that are projected to result in higher prices — are chilling spending and investment plans. 'The consumer sees darkening clouds for the economy ahead,' Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, wrote last Friday after two closely watched economic reports painted a pained picture of the American consumer. The Commerce Department reported that inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose just 0.1% in February as Americans shored up their savings accounts, while a separate survey showed that consumer sentiment plunged 12% in March. 'And while they may not always be right, if they do not start spending again, this latest negative reading on confidence will become a reality,' Rupkey added. Consumer spending powers more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity; so if that engine falters, the economic consequences can start spiraling. 'Consumers, they need willingness and ability,' Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America, told CNN. 'The willingness (consumer confidence) they don't have; the ability (the income) is waning away.' While Friday's Commerce Department data showed that personal income posted solid gains for the second consecutive month, real (inflation-adjusted) income after taxes is up just 1.8% year-over-year. 'That's pretty weak,' North said. 'It's not zero, but it's pretty weak.' If both disposable income and confidence are decaying, drops in core spending are likely to follow, he said. However, it also remains unclear whether the tepid January and February spending were reflections of recessionary or inflationary fears or if they were merely a step back after a purchasing surge in the finals months of last year, said Shannon Grein, Wells Fargo economist. 'While real spending came in weak, and we had some downward revisions to the prior month's data, I just think it's a little too soon to write off the consumer,' Grein said. Wages continue to outpace inflation, and overall income growth has been strong thanks to a still-tight labor market. However, a lot is riding on the continued health and stability of the jobs market. 'That's the big risk: Does this labor market data begin to turn in a way that causes consumers to really pull back on spending?' she said. 'But the ultimate fundamental for the household sector is income, and that's still in a decent position.' Still, Grein cautions, that's not the case for all households. An ongoing theme of the post-pandemic recovery has been a widening bifurcation of American household finances. Lower-income and younger consumers are struggling more, living paycheck to paycheck and stand to face the brunt of tariff pressure, she said. Debt balances have been on the rise, along with delinquencies. 'We see that lower-income and younger borrowers are driving those delinquency rates higher — they've maxed out,' she said. However, on a macro level, the health of consumers' mortgage loans — which are the largest component of overall US household debt — are serving as a notable offset, she added. 'Mortgage delinquencies are only approaching pre-Covid levels, where they were sitting at historic lows,' she said. 'The equity held in the single-family housing market is still near an all-time high.' Still, she cautioned, the longer the uncertainty continues to drag on, the greater the chances that it could make people and businesses 'act in funky ways.' 'I think the uncertainty of it just leads to more behavioral outcomes than just a simple implementation of a tariff could or would,' she said. 'The recent data are posing this question of, 'Is this all just temporary tariff effects, where people are just trying to act on the uncertainty?' Or is this a new sign of weakness that's finally showing up in the data?' And while a recession is not the base case for Grein nor Wells Fargo, an overall cooldown is likely. 'I am bracing for a slowdown in growth, just based on this wait-and-see approach that's happening for businesses, households and the [Federal Reserve],' she said. 'I don't think we're too far gone, but I do get more worried the longer this uncertainty persists from a growth perspective.' Victor Yarbrough is cognizant of that widening gap. He's one of three brothers behind Brough Brothers Distillery, the first Black-owned bourbon distillery in Kentucky. Brough Brothers' original distillery is located where the brothers grew up — Louisville's West End, a section of town that was once considered a 'Harlem of the South' but has suffered economically, especially in recent decades. Times appear to be getting harder for some residents, Yarbrough said in an interview with CNN. 'Two blocks away, there's a church that has food drives, we've seen a lot more people carrying food baskets away each time,' he said. 'That's telling me that for a lot of people — even in an economically depressed area — things are getting worse.' At the same time, Brough Brothers is in the midst of a massive expansion that includes a second, larger facility — complete with an event space — across town and has been planning (until just recently) to broaden its international distribution. The European Union and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on American whiskey and bourbon have thrown those plans into disarray. Yarbrough said his company is doing everything it can to adapt but is concerned about how his customers will be able to navigate these times if prices of many goods go up. 'We're very competitively priced, but the reality is, if people don't have jobs, then they can't spend,' he said. 'We're not a necessity. We're not like eggs and milk.' Sign in to access your portfolio
CNN
01-04-2025
- Business
- CNN
The American consumer is on the ropes. Tariffs — and anxiety — could deliver the knockout blow
America's economic engine is running a little rough these days. Consumer confidence is cratering, debt burdens are growing, people are worrying more about their jobs and they're pulling back on some spending out of caution. Still, while the overall fundamentals that prop up the consumer remain solid, the risks have heightened significantly. High inflation and high interest rates have contributed to vulnerabilities among consumers, making them all the more susceptible at a time when the sheer unpredictability of the Trump administration's policies — including massive tariffs that are projected to result in higher prices — are chilling spending and investment plans. 'The consumer sees darkening clouds for the economy ahead,' Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, wrote last Friday after two closely watched economic reports painted a pained picture of the American consumer. The Commerce Department reported that inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose just 0.1% in February as Americans shored up their savings accounts, while a separate survey showed that consumer sentiment plunged 12% in March. 'And while they may not always be right, if they do not start spending again, this latest negative reading on confidence will become a reality,' Rupkey added. Consumer spending powers more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity; so if that engine falters, the economic consequences can start spiraling. 'Consumers, they need willingness and ability,' Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America, told CNN. 'The willingness (consumer confidence) they don't have; the ability (the income) is waning away.' While Friday's Commerce Department data showed that personal income posted solid gains for the second consecutive month, real (inflation-adjusted) income after taxes is up just 1.8% year-over-year. 'That's pretty weak,' North said. 'It's not zero, but it's pretty weak.' If both disposable income and confidence are decaying, drops in core spending are likely to follow, he said. However, it also remains unclear whether the tepid January and February spending were reflections of recessionary or inflationary fears or if they were merely a step back after a purchasing surge in the finals months of last year, said Shannon Grein, Wells Fargo economist. 'While real spending came in weak, and we had some downward revisions to the prior month's data, I just think it's a little too soon to write off the consumer,' Grein said. Wages continue to outpace inflation, and overall income growth has been strong thanks to a still-tight labor market. However, a lot is riding on the continued health and stability of the jobs market. 'That's the big risk: Does this labor market data begin to turn in a way that causes consumers to really pull back on spending?' she said. 'But the ultimate fundamental for the household sector is income, and that's still in a decent position.' Still, Grein cautions, that's not the case for all households. An ongoing theme of the post-pandemic recovery has been a widening bifurcation of American household finances. Lower-income and younger consumers are struggling more, living paycheck to paycheck and stand to face the brunt of tariff pressure, she said. Debt balances have been on the rise, along with delinquencies. 'We see that lower-income and younger borrowers are driving those delinquency rates higher — they've maxed out,' she said. However, on a macro level, the health of consumers' mortgage loans — which are the largest component of overall US household debt — are serving as a notable offset, she added. 'Mortgage delinquencies are only approaching pre-Covid levels, where they were sitting at historic lows,' she said. 'The equity held in the single-family housing market is still near an all-time high.' Still, she cautioned, the longer the uncertainty continues to drag on, the greater the chances that it could make people and businesses 'act in funky ways.' 'I think the uncertainty of it just leads to more behavioral outcomes than just a simple implementation of a tariff could or would,' she said. 'The recent data are posing this question of, 'Is this all just temporary tariff effects, where people are just trying to act on the uncertainty?' Or is this a new sign of weakness that's finally showing up in the data?' And while a recession is not the base case for Grein nor Wells Fargo, an overall cooldown is likely. 'I am bracing for a slowdown in growth, just based on this wait-and-see approach that's happening for businesses, households and the [Federal Reserve],' she said. 'I don't think we're too far gone, but I do get more worried the longer this uncertainty persists from a growth perspective.' Victor Yarbrough is cognizant of that widening gap. He's one of three brothers behind Brough Brothers Distillery, the first Black-owned bourbon distillery in Kentucky. Brough Brothers' original distillery is located where the brothers grew up — Louisville's West End, a section of town that was once considered a 'Harlem of the South' but has suffered economically, especially in recent decades. Times appear to be getting harder for some residents, Yarbrough said in an interview with CNN. 'Two blocks away, there's a church that has food drives, we've seen a lot more people carrying food baskets away each time,' he said. 'That's telling me that for a lot of people — even in an economically depressed area — things are getting worse.' At the same time, Brough Brothers is in the midst of a massive expansion that includes a second, larger facility — complete with an event space — across town and has been planning (until just recently) to broaden its international distribution. The European Union and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on American whiskey and bourbon have thrown those plans into disarray. Yarbrough said his company is doing everything it can to adapt but is concerned about how his customers will be able to navigate these times if prices of many goods go up. 'We're very competitively priced, but the reality is, if people don't have jobs, then they can't spend,' he said. 'We're not a necessity. We're not like eggs and milk.'
CNN
30-03-2025
- Business
- CNN
Consumers are saving more and spending less as Trump's tariffs loom
Tariffs are looming, inflation is still sticky and US consumers are bracing themselves for the impact. That's according to data released Friday from the Commerce Department: Americans socked away money into savings, pulled back on discretionary purchases, and, when accounting for inflation, increased their spending ever so slightly after taking a breather in a frigid and post-holiday January. At the same time, inflation data showed minimal progress on the easing of price hikes. But the most comprehensive economic data to date on how prices are changing and how consumers are earning, spending and saving doesn't fully account for the elephant in the room: President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy. Recently imposed tariffs on auto imports and a slew of other levies waiting in the wings stand to weigh on consumer spending — America's economic engine — and drive prices higher, economists warn. 'There is no other conclusion possible other than the Trump 2.0 economic policies are frightening consumers as much as they do corporations,' Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds wrote in a note on Friday. 'The economy is going to stall out if not something worse if Washington policymakers are not careful.' The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.5% in February from the year before, holding steady with what was seen in January, according to Commerce Department data released Friday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, unchanged from January. Economists expected that falling energy prices and stabilizing food prices would help keep the disinflationary trend at hand, and that was indeed the case: Energy prices fell 1.1% for the month while food prices eased just slightly to 1.5% from 1.6%. Forecasts called for the PCE price index to be unchanged from January's preliminary 2.5% rate. However, one critical barometer — the core PCE index, which serves as a gauge of underlying inflation — came in slightly hotter than economists expected. Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile, the closely watched core PCE price index rose 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year before, accelerating from 2.7% in January. '[The core PCE price index] has been trading in a band of 2.6% to 2.8% for 10 months — it's just plain moving sideways,' Dan North, senior economist for Allianz Trade North America, said in an interview. 'We're going nowhere. Inflation is really very sticky, not having moved for 10 months, and that puts the [Federal Reserve] in an increasingly awkward spot.' The Fed last week kept interest rates unchanged, and Chair Jerome Powell indicated that central bankers are waiting for more evidence that inflation is headed toward their 2% target — or that the economy is weakening — before they return to cutting rates. Powell acknowledged that 'it remains seen' how uncertainty swelling around Trump's aggressive economic agenda affects future spending and investment. Excluding the effects of inflation, consumer spending rebounded in February, rising 0.4% for the month. In January, spending was weaker than initially reported and fell by 0.3%. Where consumers put those dollars was especially telling: They shelled out more for goods — likely reflecting the 'pull forward' of buying products before tariffs hit, economists say — while pulling back sharply on services spending, such as eating out and traveling. 'Heightened uncertainty around the economic outlook, fears of accelerating inflation, and the declines in the equity market are depressing consumer confidence and now we see signs that the 'soft' survey data are starting to weigh on the 'hard' economic data,' Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist of Nationwide, wrote Friday. 'It was particularly telling that consumers pulled back on discretionary service expenditures, recording the first decline since January 2022.' However, when adjusting for inflation, spending in February was up a mere 0.1%. Friday's report, however, did provide a silver lining for household finances: Incomes climbed by 0.8% for the month and and disposable income (after taxes) was up 0.9% and 0.5% after adjusting for inflation. Consumers opted to put a good chunk in their piggy banks: The personal saving rate increased to 4.6% from a revised 4.3% rate in January. 'Obviously, consumers remain jittery given spending remains subdued and savings high, but as long as incomes keep growing there's money to spend, which will support the economy and help Americans deal with persistent inflation,' Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote Friday. 'While inflation ticked up, we have yet to know and feel the full effect of tariffs, especially on autos, and how much they will raise prices,' he added.
