Latest news with #GDPNow
CNBC
6 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Bad trade headline after another hit the market — but a key economic tracker is looking up
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets and trade: Stocks dropped Friday but are still on pace for a solid weekly gain. The market broke down around noon ET after Bloomberg reported that the Trump Administration was planning to broaden restrictions on Chinese tech companies. According to the report, the new rule would require U.S. licenses for transactions with subsidiaries of companies on the U.S. sanctions list. It's too early to know the impact, if any, this could have on U.S. tech companies. One would think most companies have stopped selling to businesses associated with U.S.-sanctioned companies, like Huawei. Until we know for sure, these restrictions represent a negative headline for the tech sector and China-exposed companies that were hoping for the recent detente to continue. Developments over the past 24 hours suggest a notable decline in goodwill between the United States and China. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News that trade talks with China "are a bit stalled." Then Friday morning, President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that China had violated its recent trade agreement with the U.S. He ended the post by saying, "so, much for being Mr. Nice Guy," in a possible foreshadowing of these new restrictions. We all know by now that everything is subject to negotiation with the current administration, and the technology sector is going to be a big focus of upcoming trade talks. The recent episode involving a threatened tariff increase on the European Union — delayed just days later — served as a key reminder not to overreact to individual headlines. But, the market probably needs the U.S. and China to get along for this rally to continue, so we have to stay focused on what the two countries are saying. Economic activity: Following Friday's data releases, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker was upwardly revised to a gain of 3.8% for the second quarter from its previous estimate of 2.2% on May 27. To be fair, the model isn't always the most accurate predictor of the growth rate of real gross domestic product. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product, showing the economy declined 0.2%. That's much better than the GDPNow final forecast of down 2.7% for Q1 (or down 1.5% using the alternative model that adjusts for imports and exports of gold). So, that's our caution about reading too deeply into one model or forecast. Still, the tracker provides a useful gauge of economic momentum, and the fresh data suggest the economy rebounded solidly in the second quarter, with one month remaining. Up next: Two companies in the portfolio are scheduled to report next week: CrowdStrike and Broadcom . Other notable earnings report includes Campbell's, Dollar General, Five Below, and Lululemon. On the economic data side, it's jobs week. That means data on job openings on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, and the government's nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Some of the other key reports are ISM manufacturing, factory orders, and durable goods orders. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Mint
24-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Americans aren't buying Trump's economic agenda. The numbers prove it.
Like President Joe Biden before him, President Donald Trump is trying to convince a dubious American public that the economy is strong and inflation isn't a worry. 'The economy is booming," President Donald Trump declared this week. 'The stock market is higher than when I came into office (and) there's no inflation." Gasoline prices, the president said, are lower than they were on Inauguration Day. Grocery bills are going down, too. Americans aren't feeling the president's optimism. And there are plenty of reasons why. Gas is about 8 cents a gallon higher since he took the oath of office on Jan. 20, based on AAA price estimates. The St. Louis Fed's index of grocery prices is higher. And the last measure of inflation from the Commerce Department showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3% with prices rising faster in April than in March. Bank of America data published on Thursday noted that consumer spending patterns moderated last month, and are showing signs of slowing more in the summer months. Spending is still positive for the year, though. 'Given that economic uncertainty remains very high amid the imposition of tariffs and corresponding price increases, we continue to keep a close eye on how the consumer is reacting," the report said. Real-time data from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), shows the number of travelers moving through domestic airports this month is down about 2% from the first three weeks in April, one of the biggest monthly declines in years. 'The 5% drop in passenger numbers from their peak in December already is bigger than the 4% decline in February 2001 and the 1% dip in October 2007, the onset of the 2001 and 2007-to-09 recessions," noted Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Broader measures of consumer sentiment are also souring. The University of Michigan's benchmark survey fell to its second-lowest reading on record this month. Year-ahead inflation expectations, which are published in tandem, surged to 7.3%, the highest since November 1981. That isn't the kind of reading anyone wants for an economy powered by consumer spending and still clouded by tariff and inflation uncertainty. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool, a real-time tracker of U.S. growth, suggests a current-quarter advance of 2.4%. But a surprise first-quarter economic contraction, along with revisions over the coming weeks, probably will deliver little growth over this year's first half. Summertime prospects are similarly cautious. GasBuddy, a consumer advocacy network, said fewer Americans are planning holiday road trips this year, even with what could to be the cheapest fuel prices since 2021. 'While we're forecasting the lowest summer gas prices in years, economic jitters are slightly dampening optimism," said Patrick de Haan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis. 'Rather than canceling plans, travelers are becoming more strategic with their spending." The housing market also isn't providing the kind of spark needed to ignite consumer spending. Existing home sales slumped to the slowest pace since 2009 last month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Rising mortgage rates could gum up the housing market while slowing refinancings and keeping home-equity loan opportunities in check. Trump cleared a massive hurdle on Thursday in his effort to define his broader economic agenda when the House approved his 'one big, beautiful" tax-and-spending bill. But while the president can compel recalcitrant lawmakers into approving trillions of dollars in deficit spending—and probably will need to do so again when it reaches the Senate next month—a larger and more difficult challenge looms. Trump finds himself in a space occupied by his predecessor, President Joe Biden, in having to explain to Americans why they are wrong to feel they way they do about the economy. That's never a good starting point to get them spending again. Write to Martin Baccardax at
See - Sada Elbalad
18-05-2025
- Business
- See - Sada Elbalad
Gold Prices Decline By EGP 175 In Local Markets Over The Course Of A Week
Waleed Farouk Gold prices in local markets fell by 3.7% during trading last week ending Saturday evening, while the ounce fell by 3.6% during trading last Friday evening, affected by the rise in the dollar and stocks following the tariff truce between the United States and China. Gold prices in local markets fell by EGP 175 during trading last week, with the price of 21-karat gold opening at EGP 4,715 and closing at EGP 4,540. Meanwhile, the ounce fell by $121, opening at $3,325 and touching $3,120, its lowest level in a month, before closing at $3,204. A gram of 24-karat gold recorded 5,189 Egyptian pounds, a gram of 18-karat gold recorded 3,891 Egyptian pounds, a gram of 14-karat gold recorded approximately 3,027 Egyptian pounds, and the gold pound recorded approximately 36,320 Egyptian pounds. Gold prices declined in global markets during trading this week, against the backdrop of the tariff truce between the United States and China and the accompanying shift of capital towards riskier assets. Gold prices fell below the $3,200 level, recording their largest weekly decline since June 2021, amid sharp increases in stock markets. News of a de-escalation in the trade war between the United States and China and an agreement to reduce tariffs by 115% for 90 days led to a decline in gold. The ceasefire between Pakistan and India, in addition to the intense focus on a Russian-Ukrainian solution, contributed to calming geopolitical tensions, reducing the need for safe havens. Gold prices pared some of their weekly losses following the release of Moody's Investors Service's report on the US economy. The agency downgraded the US debt rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising interest costs and unsustainable debt growth. At the same time, it revised its outlook for the US from negative to stable. The agency said in a statement: "This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch credit rating scale reflects the increase, over more than a decade, in government debt ratios and interest payments to levels well above those of similarly rated countries." Looking ahead, Moody's said it sees little hope for significant change in government spending. Earlier, data from the University of Michigan showed that US households have become pessimistic about the economy, as revealed in the May Consumer Sentiment Survey. Inflation expectations are on the rise, previous housing data has been mixed, and import prices have risen. US economic data this week indicated continued progress in reducing inflation. However, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about easing monetary policy, citing uncertainty over trade policies and tariffs and their potential impact on inflation. On the growth front, retail sales continued to slow in April, but the latest update from the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now report indicates that the US economy may grow at a 2.4% rate in the second quarter of 2025. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index fell in May to its lowest level since July 2022, at 50.8, below expectations of 53.8, compared to 52.2 in April. Americans' inflation expectations for the next year rose from 6.5% to 7.3%, and over the next five years jumped from 4.4% to 4.6%. US housing starts rose 1.6% month-on-month in April, from 1.339 million to 1.361 million, below expectations. Building permits fell to -4.7% for the same period after rising 1.9% in March. US import prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in April, exceeding expectations and surpassing March's -0.4% decline. In a related development, markets are awaiting a number of Federal Reserve policy statements next week, as well as preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) and housing data. read more CBE: Deposits in Local Currency Hit EGP 5.25 Trillion Morocco Plans to Spend $1 Billion to Mitigate Drought Effect Gov't Approves Final Version of State Ownership Policy Document Egypt's Economy Expected to Grow 5% by the end of 2022/23- Minister Qatar Agrees to Supply Germany with LNG for 15 Years Business Oil Prices Descend amid Anticipation of Additional US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Business Suez Canal Records $704 Million, Historically Highest Monthly Revenue Business Egypt's Stock Exchange Earns EGP 4.9 Billion on Tuesday Business Wheat delivery season commences on April 15 News Egypt confirms denial of airspace access to US B-52 bombers Lifestyle Pistachio and Raspberry Cheesecake Domes Recipe News Ayat Khaddoura's Final Video Captures Bombardment of Beit Lahia News Australia Fines Telegram $600,000 Over Terrorism, Child Abuse Content Arts & Culture Nicole Kidman and Keith Urban's $4.7M LA Home Burglarized Sports Former Al Zamalek Player Ibrahim Shika Passes away after Long Battle with Cancer Sports Neymar Announced for Brazil's Preliminary List for 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers News Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly Inaugurates Two Indian Companies Arts & Culture New Archaeological Discovery from 26th Dynasty Uncovered in Karnak Temple Business Fear & Greed Index Plummets to Lowest Level Ever Recorded amid Global Trade War
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed rate cut bets hammered by U.S.-China tariff truce
The Federal Reserve might have found the time it needs to determine the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff strategies on the world's biggest economy, following a pause in reciprocal levies between the U.S. and China that could settle global trade tensions. Traders are now betting that the Fed won't lower its benchmark lending rate, pegged at 4.375%, until at least September after the weekend agreement between Washington and Beijing cut tariffs on China-made goods to around 30% and levies on U.S. exports to 10%. 💸💰Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter 💰💸 The two sides also pledged to keep the lowered tariff rates in place for at least 90 days, while establishing a "a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations.' The surprise agreement, reached late Sunday following a series of marathon talks in Switzerland led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, opens up around $600 billion in two-way trade between the world's two biggest economies and likely eliminates the risk of a U.S. recession between now and year's end. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool, which tracks real-time U.S. growth, pegs the economy's second-quarter advance at 2.3%, while the Commerce Department later this month will update its official reading for the first quarter, which it estimated at negative 0.3%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned last week that "if the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment," as he hinted at stagflation risks and held the central bank's key lending rate in place for a third consecutive meeting."Ultimately we think our policy rate is in a good place to stay as we await further clarity on tariffs and ultimately our implications for the economy," Powell said. The CME Group's FedWatch has now pushed back the odds of a Fed rate cut until September, while lowering the chances of a quarter-point reduction in June, when the Fed will publish new growth and inflation forecasts. The chances of a June rate cut are now just 8.1%, down from a high as 64.4% this time last month. Traders are also paring their overall outlook for 2025 rate cuts from three to two, pegging the Federal Funds Rate at between 3.75% and 4% by the end of the year."We may have to wait for the May economic data cycle at minimum and possibly also the June data to get a better read on the US economic trajectory," said John Hardy, global head of macroeconomic strategy at Saxo Bank. Inflation pressures could continue to be stoked by the current tariff schedules, however, particularly now that the unwinding of levies between the U.S. and China will likely stimulate near-term growth prospects. China-sourced goods will carry a 30% tariff, which will be paid by U.S. importers and likely passed on to consumers in the form of price hikes, while duties tied to non-compliant goods within the USCMA agreement will impose an extra 25% cost on imports from Canada and Mexico. The higher rate expectations, as well as the likely impact from faster inflation, is powering the U.S. dollar firmly higher in early Monday trading, with the greenback last seen 1.22% higher against a basket of its global peers. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields, meanwhile, jumped 8 basis points from Friday to trade at 4.463%, with rate-sensitive 2-year notes rising 12 basis points to 4.002%. More Economic Analysis: Fed inflation gauge sets up stagflation risks as tariff policies bite U.S. recession risk leaps as GDP shrinks Like it or not, the bond market rules all Those moves could accelerate if Tuesday's Consumer Price Index inflation report for April, the first of a series of readings that will include the impact of what Trump called his Liberation Day levies, unveiled April 2. Economists expect headline pressures held at an annual rate of 2.4% but likely jumped 0.3% from March levels, with the core reading and increase forecast at 2.8% and 0.3% respectively. "US CPI numbers are expected to come in quite hot on Tuesday, keeping US rates supported," said ING's global head of markets, Chris Turner. "The rest of the data calendar is relatively empty, which means positive headlines can remain the main driver of global rates," he added. "Until told otherwise by data or headlines, the upward pressure on rates can hold for now." Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Miami Herald
12-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Fed rate cut bets hammered by U.S.-China tariff truce
The Federal Reserve might have found the time it needs to determine the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff strategies on the world's biggest economy, following a pause in reciprocal levies between the U.S. and China that could settle global trade tensions. Traders are now betting that the Fed won't lower its benchmark lending rate, pegged at 4.375%, until at least September after the weekend agreement between Washington and Beijing cut tariffs on China-made goods to around 30% and levies on U.S. exports to 10%. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The two sides also pledged to keep the lowered tariff rates in place for at least 90 days, while establishing a "a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations." The surprise agreement, reached late Sunday following a series of marathon talks in Switzerland led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, opens up around $600 billion in two-way trade between the world's two biggest economies and likely eliminates the risk of a U.S. recession between now and year's end. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool, which tracks real-time U.S. growth, pegs the economy's second-quarter advance at 2.3%, while the Commerce Department later this month will update its official reading for the first quarter, which it estimated at negative 0.3%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned last week that "if the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment," as he hinted at stagflation risks and held the central bank's key lending rate in place for a third consecutive meeting. Related: Fed hints at stagflation risks, holds rates steady amid tariff impact "Ultimately we think our policy rate is in a good place to stay as we await further clarity on tariffs and ultimately our implications for the economy," Powell said. CME Group's FedWatch has now pushed back the odds of a Fed rate cut until September, while lowering the chances of a quarter-point reduction in June, when the Fed will publish new growth and inflation forecasts. The chances of a June rate cut are now just 8.1%, down from a high as 64.4% this time last month. Traders are also paring their overall outlook for 2025 rate cuts from three to two, pegging the Federal Funds Rate at between 3.75% and 4% by the end of the year. Related: Global investors wary of U.S. stocks as trade war concerns grip sentiment "We may have to wait for the May economic data cycle at minimum and possibly also the June data to get a better read on the US economic trajectory," said John Hardy, global head of macroeconomic strategy at Saxo Bank. Inflation pressures could continue to be stoked by the current tariff schedules, however, particularly now that the unwinding of levies between the U.S. and China will likely stimulate near-term growth prospects. China-sourced goods will carry a 30% tariff, which will be paid by U.S. importers and likely passed on to consumers in the form of price hikes, while duties tied to non-compliant goods within the USCMA agreement will impose an extra 25% cost on imports from Canada and Mexico. The higher rate expectations, as well as the likely impact from faster inflation, is powering the U.S. dollar firmly higher in early Monday trading, with the greenback last seen 1.22% higher against a basket of its global peers. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields, meanwhile, jumped 8 basis points from Friday to trade at 4.463%, with rate-sensitive 2-year notes rising 12 basis points to 4.002%. More Economic Analysis: Fed inflation gauge sets up stagflation risks as tariff policies biteU.S. recession risk leaps as GDP shrinksLike it or not, the bond market rules all Those moves could accelerate if Tuesday's Consumer Price Index inflation report for April, the first of a series of readings that will include the impact of what Trump called his Liberation Day levies, unveiled April 2. Economists expect headline pressures held at an annual rate of 2.4% but likely jumped 0.3% from March levels, with the core reading and increase forecast at 2.8% and 0.3% respectively. "US CPI numbers are expected to come in quite hot on Tuesday, keeping US rates supported," said ING's global head of markets, Chris Turner. "The rest of the data calendar is relatively empty, which means positive headlines can remain the main driver of global rates," he added. "Until told otherwise by data or headlines, the upward pressure on rates can hold for now." The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
