Latest news with #GPconsultations
BreakingNews.ie
9 hours ago
- Health
- BreakingNews.ie
Demand for GP consultations to increase by 23 per cent by 2040
New research projects that the demand for general practitioner (GP) consultations will increase by at least 23 per cent by 2040, reflecting continued population growth. The new report released by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) considers a range of scenarios based on varying assumptions about population growth and ageing, the pace of healthy ageing, and policy reforms. Advertisement The rising demand for general practice services is largely driven by population growth and, to a lesser extent, population ageing. Ireland's population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 and 6.3 million by 2040, with the range reflecting differing assumptions on future migration trends. The proportion of the population aged under 25 will decrease while the proportion aged 50 and over will increase. While all age groups use general practice services, utilisation tends to increase with age. GP consultations are projected to grow from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040, growth of between 23 and 30 per cent. Advertisement Requirements for an additional 943 to 1,211 GPs by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 3,928 GPs. General practice nurse consultations are projected to grow from 5.7 million in 2023 to between 7.5 million and 7.8 million by 2040, growth of between 32 and 36 per cent. Requirements for an additional 761 to 868 general practice nurses by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 2,288 GPNs. Growing demand The Irish College of GPs welcomed the research by the ESRI and said it is aware of the growing demand for GP services. Advertisement The chair of the board of the Irish College of GPs, Dr Deirdre Collins, said: 'We are acutely aware of the impact of the growing population, and the ageing population, on GP services. T "his ESRI report is welcome, because it helps give fresh insights into the challenges facing policy makers and the HSE in meeting the growing demand for GP services.' The chief executive of the Irish College of GPs, Fintan Foy, said: 'The ESRI report paints a stark picture of the impact of the growing population on GP demand in the coming years. "With the support of the HSE and the Department of Health, we remain positive that we can continue to address the challenges of GP shortages. We hope that the resources needed to ensure GPs can set up in areas of new population and where GPs are retiring, can be available when needed. "We believe the Strategic Review of General Practice needs to be expedited to ensure we can put long term plans in place to meet the growing healthcare needs of the Irish population.'
Irish Times
20 hours ago
- Health
- Irish Times
Demand for GP consultations could rise by up to 30% over next 15 years as population ages and grows
Demand for consultations with a GP could increase by almost a third over the next 15 years due to a growing and ageing population, research has found. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) on Wednesday published a report that projects demand for GP consultations could rise by between 23 and 30 per cent, from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040. It projects an additional 943 to 1,211 GPs could be needed by 2040 to meet this need. There was a GP headcount of 3,928 in 2023. However, this projected figure is based on the current GP-consultation ratio. If GPs were to undertake fewer consultations, for reasons such as higher complexity or reduced working hours, then the number required would increase accordingly, it adds. READ MORE Demand for consultations with general practice nurses is projected to grow from 5.7 million in 2023 to between 7.5 million and 7.8 million by 2040, an increase of between 32 and 36 per cent. This means an additional 761 to 868 general practice nurses will be needed by 2040. The headcount in 2023 was 2,288. According to the report, the level of demand will depend on the uptake of GP visit cards, healthy ageing and engagement with the chronic disease treatment programme . A 'key component' of the Sláintecare health reform proposals is moving healthcare from the hospital model to more primary and community settings, the ESRI notes. A number of policies have been introduced in recent years to achieve this, including the extension of GP visit cards to children under eight and to those below the median income, as well as the development of the chronic disease management programme. [ Up to 6,800 more inpatient beds will be needed by 2040, says ESRI report Opens in new window ] 'While it is anticipated that such reforms may reduce pressures on the hospital sector in the medium term, they will inevitably increase the demand for general practice services in the coming years – increases which come in addition to the significant increase in demand arising from a growing and ageing population.' In the report, the ESRI highlights difficulties in capacity planning in the sector due to a lack of available nationally representative data on general practice. 'A number of measures have already been implemented to increase the general practice workforce, including increasing training places,' the report says. 'However, it is not known if current measures will be sufficient to meet additional demands on general practice in the coming years.' GP shortages have been a growing concern for a number of years, particularly in rural areas, due to many of these practices being solo-run and doctors approaching retirement age. According to the most recent figures from the Irish Medical Council , from last year, almost a third of GPs are aged 55 or older.
