Demand for GP consultations could rise by up to 30% over next 15 years as population ages and grows
The
Economic and Social Research Institute
(ESRI) on Wednesday published a report that projects demand for GP consultations could rise by between 23 and 30 per cent, from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040.
It projects an additional 943 to 1,211 GPs could be needed by 2040 to meet this need. There was a GP headcount of 3,928 in 2023.
However, this projected figure is based on the current GP-consultation ratio. If GPs were to undertake fewer consultations, for reasons such as higher complexity or reduced working hours, then the number required would increase accordingly, it adds.
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Demand for consultations with general practice nurses is projected to grow from 5.7 million in 2023 to between 7.5 million and 7.8 million by 2040, an increase of between 32 and 36 per cent.
This means an additional 761 to 868 general practice nurses will be needed by 2040. The headcount in 2023 was 2,288.
According to the report, the level of demand will depend on the uptake of GP visit cards, healthy ageing and engagement with the
chronic disease treatment programme
.
A 'key component' of the
Sláintecare
health reform proposals is moving healthcare from the hospital model to more primary and community settings, the ESRI notes.
A number of policies have been introduced in recent years to achieve this, including the extension of GP visit cards to children under eight and to those below the median income, as well as the development of the chronic disease management programme.
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Up to 6,800 more inpatient beds will be needed by 2040, says ESRI report
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'While it is anticipated that such reforms may reduce pressures on the hospital sector in the medium term, they will inevitably increase the demand for general practice services in the coming years – increases which come in addition to the significant increase in demand arising from a growing and ageing population.'
In the report, the ESRI highlights difficulties in capacity planning in the sector due to a lack of available nationally representative data on general practice.
'A number of measures have already been implemented to increase the general practice workforce, including increasing training places,' the report says. 'However, it is not known if current measures will be sufficient to meet additional demands on general practice in the coming years.'
GP shortages have been a growing concern for a number of years, particularly in rural areas, due to many of these practices being solo-run and doctors approaching retirement age.
According to the most recent figures from the
Irish Medical Council
, from last year, almost a third of GPs are aged 55 or older.
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