Latest news with #GadigalLand
ABC News
2 days ago
- Business
- ABC News
Alan Kohler on making housing a bad investment
Sam Hawley: Interest rates might be coming down, but house prices are, once again, heading in the other direction. Given there is a major problem with housing affordability, and there are so many people who can't even afford to enter the market, why on earth is that? Today, the ABC's finance expert, Alan Kohler, on how conditions are ripe for a housing price surge, just as they were back in the early 2000s. In other words, why history's repeating. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal Land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Sam Hawley: Alan, interest rates are coming down and they could drop even further this year. So that should mean houses are more affordable for borrowers. But it's not that simple and you're going to explain to us why. Now, to do that, let's go back to the turn of the century. In 2001, the Reserve Bank was cutting rates just like it is now, wasn't it? Alan Kohler: Correct. Sam Hawley: What was going on back then? Alan Kohler: In 2001, the Reserve Bank cut interest rates six times that year. News report: Nervous anticipation for one of the Reserve Bank's most expected interest rate cuts, the sixth and last this year. Alan Kohler: And that was in response to the dot-com crash in the United States, which happened on basically in March of 2000. It continued for a while. The Nasdaq halved, more than halved. And there was a recession in the United States. The Reserve Bank was concerned that the Australian dollar would rise too much because of that, because obviously the US Federal Reserve was cutting interest rates in response to the recession. So the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates in precaution, even though there was no recession in Australia. The economy did slow a bit. There was a bit of a fall in the share market, but not anything like what happened in the US. Sam Hawley: And the other thing that was happening back then was there was some pretty major policy changes, including the introduction of the capital gains discount and the return of a first home buyers grant. So just remind me of those policies at that time. Alan Kohler: Yes. So in 1999, the Howard Government appointed a business tax review committee, a panel of three businessmen to report on the business tax system. And what they wanted to do, what Howard and Costello wanted to do then, was to reduce the company tax rate from 36 to 30%. So they asked some businessmen to tell them whether that was a good idea. And well, they told them it was a great idea. Go ahead. But in the course of doing that, they also recommended a change in the capital gains tax regime so that instead of the capital gains tax being adjusted for inflation, they recommended a simple 50% discount, which the Howard Government duly applied. Peter Costello, then-Treasurer: Under the reforms which we announced today, a 50% reduction in the taxable gain, that is 50% of the gain is not taxable. Alan Kohler: And although it's the case that that didn't really change the amount of capital gains tax at the time because inflation was quite high. So actually, the 50% discount was roughly the same as the inflation adjustment for the average time that people were holding assets. What I think happened was that it changed the psychology of investing in property because everyone understands a discount, whereas nobody really gets inflation and certainly can't do it in their heads. Sam Hawley: So even if you don't understand capital gains tax, just understand that if it's 50% discount, that's a good thing. Alan Kohler: Exactly. Sam Hawley: If you're a homeowner, right? Alan Kohler: Precisely. And that added to negative gearing, which had been in place for a long time, to make investing in housing an attractive thing to do. The businessmen who recommended it thought that it would lead to Australia becoming a nation of share owners and buy the shares of their companies and drive the prices higher and lower their cost of capital. But that, in fact, didn't happen because people just want to invest in housing. And that's what happened. And as you say, also the Howard government reintroduced first homebuyer grants in 2000, which had been out of action for a while. The first homebuyer grant was in the 1960s under Menzies, but the Hawke-Keating government didn't do them and Howard reintroduced them. Sam Hawley: Okay, so rates are going down. There's these two major policy changes. And at the time, there was a simply huge rise in immigration. Alan Kohler: Exactly. And what caused that in around about 2005 was a change to the way foreign students were assessed in 2001. On July 1st, 2001, the system was changed. Up to that point, foreign students' visas were issued on the basis of either gazetted countries or non-gazetted countries. China and India were included in the non-gazetted countries and it was very difficult for students from those places to get a visa. After July 1st, 2001, that changed and became the same for everybody, which is the way it ought to be, of course. But that led eventually to a huge increase in students from China and India from the mid-2000s. And that led to a doubling and then tripling of net overseas migration into Australia. At the time. Sam Hawley: Wow. All right. So we get a pot and then we put all these things into it and we stir it around. So there's the capital gains tax, there's the first homeowner's grant, the rates are dropping and there's this massive increase in immigration. And when you stir it all around, you come out, Alan, with house prices rising. Alan Kohler: Yes. Well, so all of those four things that we've discussed added to demand from investors and migrants and so on. So there was a big increase in demand, but there was no response in supply. The government did nothing about increasing supply at the time. And the result was that for 10 years, between 2005 and 2015, there was a dire, big shortage of housing, an undersupply of housing for a decade, which really set the scene for a big increase in house prices. And what happened was that the house price to income ratio rose from between three to four times incomes, this is average incomes in 2000, to eight or nine times incomes at the end of that time. And that was a huge change in the way that housing related to people's incomes and also GDP of the there was a stop to immigration during the pandemic. And then post the pandemic, population growth has gone back to more than 2% per annum, which is what it was in the period after 2005. Sam Hawley: All right. So, Alan, that's the history of the skyrocketing house prices and how we ended up here. Now, today, interesting that we have exactly the same conditions. Alan Kohler: That's right. The Reserve Bank is cutting interest rates, probably not by six times, but by probably four or five times this year, possibly into next year as well. We've got first time buyer grants back on. We've got a big increase in migration. I mean, the Treasury forecast in the budget for this financial year, net overseas migration is 335,000. But in the first nine months of the year, it's already 360,000 and looks like being 400,000 this year. There's no targets on immigration, but there's a Treasury forecast and net overseas migration is going to well exceed the Treasury forecast. And of course, there's been no change in the capital gains tax discount because the Labor Party failed to win in 2016 and 2019, where that is their policy to reduce it 25%. All the conditions are in place for another rise in house prices. Sam Hawley: Exactly. So what are we seeing already and what do we expect to see then when it comes to the cost of housing in Australia? Alan Kohler: Between November last year and January this year, house prices actually fell by close to 1%. This is the national median price, having increased 17% in the previous 12 months or so. And since January, they've risen again by more than the increase in average wages over that period. News report: House prices are continuing to rise across the country, with experts predicting property values to grow between 6 and 10% by the end of the year. All the capitals rose more than 0.4 of a percent in May. That brings the national index 1.7% higher over the first five months of the year. Alan Kohler: House prices are already starting to rise in excess of the rise in incomes. And the thing is, you know, everyone says houses are unaffordable, which is kind of true, which you would think would mean house prices don't rise very much now, because if they're unaffordable already, then people can't afford them. But in fact, falling interest rates makes them more affordable. The determinant of affordability is the amount you can afford in terms of interest repayments or mortgage repayments. Really, a better measure might be time to save a deposit, because the problem is that deposits are becoming unreachable for a lot of people. So housing is becoming inaccessible. It's OK if you've got a deposit, because your parents have given you one, given you the money, but those who don't have access to some sort of provision of a deposit can't get into housing. And that's the problem. Sam Hawley: Yeah. There's just a certain number of people that keep buying properties and pushing the amount or the cost of properties up. I mean, there's enough people that can afford the properties because the property price keeps going upwards and upwards. Alan Kohler: Correct. The truth is that if you don't have a parent who can give you the money for a deposit or some other way of getting ahold of a deposit, as opposed to saving it, you're a renter. You cannot buy a house. That is the reality of the situation, particularly in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, but increasingly in Perth and Adelaide and Hobart as well, and also everywhere in Australia. I don't know what's to be done about it, really. Sam Hawley: All right. Oh, gosh. So, dare I ask you then, if you don't have the bank of mum and dad or any family members that can actually help you in this process of getting this massive deposit to buy a home, is there really no chance ever that you're going to land in the property market at this point? Alan Kohler: Well, there has to be a big shift in the value of housing versus incomes. Prices would need to go back to the sort of relationship to incomes that they were 25 years ago, which is three to four times instead of the current sort of nine or 10 times. And the only way that's going to happen is if house prices stay where they are for a while, like a long time, like 20 years. Now, that will only happen if there's an oversupply of housing for that period. Both the federal government and the state governments are all doing what they can. They're working hard. I know, you know, they're genuinely working hard to increase supply, but there's a problem. The trouble is that the construction industry doesn't have the capacity, partly because productivity is so low. In fact, the Committee for Economic Development in Australia, CEDA, released a report about construction productivity and why is it so low. And they do say in the report that we're building now half as many houses per worker as we did in the 70s. So that's fallen by half. But not only is productivity low, the number of workers is also in decline because the average age of builders tends to be quite high. They're all retiring and there's not enough apprentices coming through. The government is talking about increasing the number of tradies who they bring in as migrants, which is definitely what's needed. They're not talking about anywhere near enough of them coming in. And any way, the regulator of the industry is reluctant to recognise foreign qualifications in the construction industry. So, you know, there's a real kind of blockage of kind of productivity and number of people in the construction industry. I think it's going to be difficult to achieve the kind of oversupply of housing over the next sort of decade or two that is required. Sam Hawley: And Alan, while we're waiting for all these houses to be built, conditions are absolutely ripe for house prices just to keep surging. Alan Kohler: Yeah. And the governments, in addition to doing the work that they're doing on supply, which is good, they're also kind of doing short-term band-aid measures, including helping first homebuyers, either through help to buy schemes or grants and so on. And so that just tends to increase demand and increase prices, because a lot of those grants just end up on the price. So, yeah, look, I don't think it's particularly good news on the subject of housing. I'd like it to be different. And there's no big magic bullet. There's just going to be a lot of sort of small work, grinding work to be done. And, you know, the fact is we have to go through a period where housing is a really bad investment. Sam Hawley: Alan Kohler presents the Finance Report on the ABC's 7pm News. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Adair Sheppard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.
ABC News
5 days ago
- Health
- ABC News
Ukraine carries out audacious attack deep in Russia
Woman's voice: ABC Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music and more. Isabella Higgins: Good morning, welcome to AM. It's Monday the 2nd of June. I'm Isabella Higgins coming to you from Gadigal Land in Sydney. Dubbed Operation Spider Web, a strike deep into the heart of Russia that could shift the strategic balance of the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian drones struck a number of airbases, destroying dozens of aircraft worth billions of dollars. And it comes on the eve of peace talks. Let's get more on this from Europe Bureau Chief, Mazoe Ford. Mazoe, what do we know about this Ukrainian operation? Mazoe Ford: Good morning, Isabella. This operation was codenamed Spider's Web. It took a year and a half to plan and it was one of Kyiv's most audacious attacks on Russia so far. It was personally overseen by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President, and it was all done without the knowledge of the United States. These Ukrainian drones attacked four airfields from the west of Russia to Moscow and even reaching the Far East, thousands of kilometres from Ukraine. And Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed 40 Russian warplanes. This is interesting because the drones were smuggled into Russia. They were loaded onto trucks and driven to locations near the airbases before being launched remotely. And drones have, of course, struck inside Russia and attacked aircraft before, but never on this scale. Russia says it's repelled most of the attacks and has detained some of the people involved. But Isabella, the Kremlin will be fuming about this because it's highly embarrassing. They always claim to be the stronger country militarily and yet Ukraine has managed to sneak in and do this. Isabella Higgins: And Mazoe, this comes ahead of more peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul later today. What chance do they have? Mazoe Ford: Well, after a weekend of fighting on both sides, the Russians continued to attack Ukraine with its drones and 472 went across on Saturday night local time, the largest number in a single night. So with that and with these Ukrainian strikes into Russia, you've got to imagine that going into these talks, the sides are going to be very prickly with one another. The Russians have touched down in Istanbul and they've not yet said what their terms are for this second round of talks in the past month. Ukraine is on the way. It says it's repeated its call for a complete and unconditional ceasefire, the release of prisoners and a return of the abducted children. But both sides are going to be back in this room on Monday afternoon local time, but they still enter it very, very far apart. Isabella Higgins: Europe Bureau Chief Mazoe Ford reporting there. Now, more on this from Cedric Leighton, a military analyst and retired US Air Force colonel. Thanks for joining us. Just how significant are these attacks on airbases inside Russia? Cedric Leighton: Oh, they are quite significant, Isabella. One of the key aspects of this is the distance involved between the Ukrainian border and some of these airbases, including one of them, which is near Irkutsk, the Belaya Air Base. It's about 4,000 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border. That shows that the Ukrainians have basically been able to penetrate the Russian logistics system. They've been able to move these drones into Russia using various surreptitious means. It kind of evokes memories of World War II, where Churchill directed the special operations executive in the UK to turn Europe ablaze, basically. And the Ukrainians are trying to do that with the Russian bomber force. And they seem to at least have partially succeeded at this point. Isabella Higgins: Is it shocking just how deep inside Russian territory they were able to carry out these attacks? Cedric Leighton: It is, because one of the key aspects of this is that the Russians at least give the impression that they are able to control their borders, that they're able to control their airspace. They were able to really do none of that effectively in this particular case. And when it comes to Operation Spider's Web, as they're calling this, it's pretty clear that the Ukrainians were able to penetrate the Russian defences on several levels. And that is very significant. Isabella Higgins: And how does this look for Russia, having those weaknesses exposed? Cedric Leighton: It's very much an embarrassment for the Russian leadership. And, you know, it's also very much an embarrassment for the Russian military. They often concentrate their aircraft in certain specific areas, especially far away from the front. These aircraft that were reportedly hit include aircraft that would be used to deliver cruise missiles, such as Kinzhal missiles and other missiles that the Russians have in their inventory to Ukrainian targets. And hitting these aircraft and putting them out of commission, at least for a certain period of time, is a very, very significant aspect to this. And it really does show that the Russians did not defend their assets adequately. Isabella Higgins: And Cedric, we just heard there's another round of peace talks due to take place in Istanbul later today. Does this put Ukraine in a stronger position? Cedric Leighton: I think it definitely does, assuming that the Russians are going to continue with the talks. And that will also be a signal if the Russians decide to continue with the talks. They obviously see a need to reach some kind of an accommodation with the Ukrainians. If they do not decide to continue with the talks, that could show that they are, you know, believe that they have a stronger position than many outside observers think they have. And it's also, I think, a very key indicator for whether or not there'll be some kind of an agreement, at least for a ceasefire in the near term. That is, of course, a questionable endeavor, given the conflict, how long it's gone and the attitudes on both sides. Isabella Higgins: Just a final question. Is a ceasefire really on the table at these talks? Cedric Leighton: I'm very sceptical. I would love to see a cessation to the hostilities, but a cessation with Ukraine being in a position where it can maintain its sovereignty. And it does seem as if the Russians, Russian leadership is trying very hard to keep these, the conflict going and to keep these talks kind of percolating at a low level. But they're trying to do this in a way that allows Russia to not only maintain its strengths, but perhaps gain more territory. And if the Russians don't do that, they will find themselves in a position of some weakness at this point. Isabella Higgins: Cedric Leighton, thank you very much for your insights and joining us on AM. Cedric Leighton: You bet, Isabella, anytime. Isabella Higgins: That's Cedric Leighton, a military analyst and retired US Air Force Colonel. Four days. That's how long a mental health patient at one of the country's busiest emergency departments waited for treatment, according to figures seen by Four Corners. Doctors have revealed they felt pressured to discharge people in severe mental health crisis before they're ready. The program has uncovered a serious deterioration of mental health services in New South Wales. Avani Dias reports. Avani Dias: At Sydney's Westmead Hospital, a corridor has become a makeshift waiting room, where people dealing with some of the most severe mental illnesses wait on chairs and sleep on the floor. Mental health nurse Teaghanne Sarina says conditions are getting worse. Teaghanne Sarina: We've seen an influx of patient presentations and an inability to provide bed spaces for them, leading to longer wait times in emergency departments and in the hospital. Avani Dias: Four Corners has seen internal figures showing mental health patients facing consistently long wait times at Westmead ED. In April, a 45-year-old woman with suicidal thoughts waited more than two days to be treated. Later that month, on one day, two men had been waiting more than 80 hours, and a man with schizoaffective disorder was waiting 93 hours. That's almost four days. Dr Anu Kataria: So when I walk into the ward and there's somebody who's come to me who's been like that waiting four days, they're probably worse off than when they first came through the door of the hospital, because they are not only unwell, they are now angry and confused. Avani Dias: That's psychiatrist Dr Anu Kataria, who resigned from the country's largest mental health hospital, Cumberland, in January. Did you feel there was a pressure to discharge people before they were ready to leave? Dr Anu Kataria: Yes. We often would reach work and at half past eight in the morning get a text message saying that the ED is backed up, Westmead ED is backed up, please discharge. It was real, it was constant. Avani Dias: Scores of psychiatrists resigned this year protesting these conditions, like Dr Suzy Goodison from Sydney's largest hospital, the Royal Prince Alfred. She saw many mental health patients leave before they could be helped, like a man with schizophrenia. Isabella Higgins: He was walking around with a loaded nail gun in public. It becomes a moral injury when I can't deliver that care to keep either individuals safe or the community safe. And it's another Bondi Junction waiting to happen. Avani Dias: Leading psychiatrists like Professor Gordon Parker, who started the Black Dog Institute, are meeting with the state government, urging it to act. Prof Gordon Parker: The New South Wales mental health system is in deep, deep trouble. Avani Dias: If nothing changes, what's the risk for people dealing with a mental health crisis? Prof Gordon Parker: There will be insufficient beds and if not insufficient beds, insufficient psychiatrists to handle those acute situations. Avani Dias: The state's mental health minister, Rose Jackson, declined an interview. New South Wales Health said patients are not discharged if it's not clinically appropriate, adding we will never turn people away. Isabella Higgins: Avani Dias reporting and you can watch Four Corners tonight at 8.30pm on ABC TV or on iView. If this story has raised concerns for you or anyone you know, you can call Lifeline on 13 11 14. New research has uncovered shocking accounts of vulnerable workers employed on temporary visas hiding pregnancies and even attempting home abortions. The incidents involved workers employed through the Federal Government's Pacific Labor Mobility Scheme which is designed to address the skills shortage. Here's National Regional Affairs reporter Lucy Barbour and a warning her report contains disturbing content. Lucy Barbour: Some migrant workers are going to desperate measures to end their pregnancies. Tukini Tavui: We've come across such scenarios where they've attempted abortion. In one case it was actually in the field where they were working. There've also been cases that's done at home of ways and I couldn't even talk about. Lucy Barbour: Takini Tavui is the President of the Pacific Island Council of South Australia. He's not surprised by the scenarios highlighted in a new report from the Australian National University's Lindy Kanan. Lindy Kanan: I was told that people were using, drinking certain substances to try to terminate the pregnancy or using physical means. Lucy Barbour: Lindy Kanan has spoken with dozens of migrant workers, employers and health and support workers about the Pacific Australia Labor Mobility Scheme known as PAM. Under the program, approved Australian employers engage workers from the Pacific and Timor-Leste to work on farms and in meat processors and aged care facilities. Lindy Kanan: You know a number of employers that I spoke to saying, you know, we didn't know she was pregnant until she went into labour on the packing room floor. Lucy Barbour: Sex and pregnancy outside of marriage remain taboo in many Pacific Island cultures. Lindy Kanan says women felt ashamed if they'd fallen pregnant out of wedlock or through an extramarital affair. Lindy Kanan: I found at least seven cases on one field trip that I went to, to one regional town where women had basically run away after finding out that they were pregnant and were basically in a more precarious situation because of that. Lucy Barbour: Workers often live in close quarters. Lindy Kanan says that can have consequences. Lindy Kanan: It was very common to hear about male Palm participants using alcohol, knocking on the doors of women's accommodation at night and sexual assaults happening as a result of that situation. Lucy Barbour: Trudi Beck is a GP obstetrician. She publicly advertises abortions at her clinic in Wagga Wagga in south-east New South Wales. She estimates a quarter of her patients seeking terminations are migrant workers. Trudi Beck: I think it's probably a combination of many things that Australians don't really want to talk about. Things like abortion, racism and probably exploitation of Pacific neighbours. Lucy Barbour: Dr Beck says migrant workers are choosing abortion because they don't want to risk their jobs or being sent home. And patients can end up paying thousands of dollars for reproductive care because they don't have Medicare or health insurance that covers pregnancy and birth. Trudi Beck: This particular cohort is a group of patients that are so disadvantaged that delivering compassionate evidence-based care within the confines of the current system is virtually impossible. Lucy Barbour: The research found some employers did provide support for pregnant workers but many were unsure of their obligations. Isabella Higgins: Lucy Barbour and Cath McAloon with that report. Hospitals in Gaza have been flooded with the dead and injured after Hamas accused Israeli forces of opening fire at aid distribution sites in the territory. Palestinian health authorities say at least 31 people were killed and dozens more injured. But the organisation running the aid sites and the Israeli Defence Force are denying civilians were fired upon, instead blaming Hamas for creating chaos. From Jerusalem, here's Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran. Matthew Doran: On Saturday night, Palestinians started making the trek south, desperate to get their hands on aid after three months of an Israeli blockade. Among them was Ikram Nasser and her family. Ikram Nasser: We stayed hidden all night because if a plane or tank spotted you, they would open fire. Matthew Doran: An Israeli drone broadcast a message on loudspeaker that the Rafa aid site would open at 6am Sunday morning and that there were plenty of supplies to go around, but Palestinians needed to be disciplined and wait. After a sleepless night, Ikram says they were prepared for Sunday morning. Ikram Nasser: When the drone told us to enter, we entered. We had not even walked 200 metres. As soon as we were 200 metres away, soldiers surrounded us and they started firing at us. From this side, the other, all around. People were like sheep. Matthew Doran: Ikram says ambulances were stopped from entering the area to retrieve the dead and injured. So people gathered bodies on trolleys, usually used to cart garbage. Many were taken to field hospitals, including the International Red Cross facility in Rafa, which says it was the highest number of patients wounded by weapons staff had seen there since opening over a year ago. Dr Marwan Al-Hams is Gaza's director of field hospitals. Dr Marwan Al-Hams: The shots were aimed at the upper body, head, neck and chest. It seems IDF is sending a clear message to the hungry. We will kill you from the sky with planes and missiles, or on the ground through starvation and attacks in the aid distribution centres. Matthew Doran: But the Israel Defence Forces says it wasn't involved, labelling the claims as Hamas lies and releasing video from an Israeli drone it says shows armed gunmen opening fire on civilians. The ABC hasn't been able to independently verify the vision. IDF spokesman Effie Defrin is accusing Hamas of trying to undermine Israel's efforts to distribute aid to the population. Effie Defrin: Hamas is doing its best, is almost to stop us from doing so. He is spreading rumours, fake news. He is trying bluntly and violently to stop the people of Gaza from reaching those distribution centres. I urge you not to believe every rumour spread by Hamas. Matthew Doran: The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the US and Israeli backed organisation running the aid distribution points, has released security camera vision it says backs up that assessment. And while the mute video does not appear to show any gunfire causing deaths and injuries, what it does depict is incredible desperation. Ikram Nasser says the entire incident has scarred her emotionally. Ikram Nasser: I feel I am born again today. I will never ever go to these distributions again. I'd rather starve to death. I have no flour, no sugar, I have no food, nothing, no formula for my son, yet I will not go anymore. Matthew Doran: And she's still searching for two brothers, missing amidst the chaos. This is Matthew Doran in Jerusalem, reporting for AM. Australia's most successful football coach, Ange Postecoglou, has declared his coaching career is far from over, despite rumours he could soon be sacked. In an exclusive interview with Australian Story, the first ever Aussie to manage an English Premier League team has vowed to win more trophies. Europe correspondent Elias Clure filed this report from Athens. Elias Clure: The picturesque beaches of southern Greece are where Ange Postecoglou and his family escape the all-consuming vacuum of the English Premier League. Ange Postecoglou: Our go-to destination is Greece. Obviously my background, my wife's background, and it's probably the one place in the world I feel I can relax. Elias Clure: Postecoglou is speaking to the ABC exclusively after the Australian led Tottenham Hotspur to its first European title in 41 years. Ange Postecoglou: Right now I'm content to sit in the glow of what we've achieved. Elias Clure: The achievement is unprecedented. Ange Postecoglou is the first Australian to ever coach in the English Premier League, and now he's the first Aussie to lead a side to a major European trophy. Ange Postecoglou: Against the backdrop of any sort of doubt, it's when I'm at my best because I love pushing through that stuff. So, like I said, an opportunity to convince more that I haven't got here by accident. Elias Clure: But as he soaks in the European sun and basks in the glory of his recent triumph, the unrelenting football tabloids in England continue to speculate over whether Aussie Ange will lose his job. Spurs won the Europa League trophy but finished 17th in the Premier League, one of their worst-ever results. Does it sometimes bemuse you, the sort of English football milieu, how intense they are? I mean, you won a trophy and there's still a sort of, you know, baying for blood kind of thing. Ange Postecoglou: It's just part of, you know, the environment you're in and if anything I think there should be more of it. Elias Clure: After his victory, Ange Postecoglou made it clear he's got more to give. Here he is making a rousing speech to Tottenham faithful during the European Cup celebrations. Ange Postecoglou: I'll tell you something, I'll leave you with this. All the best for television series. Season three is better than season two. Elias Clure: We asked him what he meant by those comments. Ange Postecoglou: When I spoke about season three, like I said, it's just about being aspirational. It's about, you know, this feeling we had in season two. Can we top it? And I see no reason why you can't and that's what you should be seeking to do. Elias Clure: The 59-year-old says regardless of what happens, his football journey is far from over. Ange Postecoglou: I've got no doubt in my mind that there'll be more stories to tell, more trophies that have been won and that's how I think about life, that's how I think about what I do and that's what I'm focused on. Elias Clure: This is Elias Clure in Athens reporting for AM. Isabella Higgins: And you can see Ange Postecoglou's full exclusive interview with the ABC tonight on Australian Story at 8pm. And that's AM for today. Thanks for your company. I'm Isabella Higgins. Sam Hawley: Hi, I'm Sam Hawley, host of the ABC News Daily Podcast. In New South Wales, psychiatrists are quitting in droves, leaving a system they say is broken. And they're now speaking out amid fears it could lead to another Bondi Junction-style attack where innocent people are killed or injured. Today, Avani Dias on her investigation into a mental health system in desperate need of repair. Look for the ABC News Daily Podcast on the ABC Listen app.
ABC News
30-05-2025
- Business
- ABC News
On-again, off-again Trump tariffs reinstated
Woman: ABC Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music and more. Andy Park: Good morning. Welcome to AM. It's Friday the 30th of May. I'm Andy Park coming to you from Gadigal Land in Sydney. A US appeals court has paused yesterday's trade court decision that found many of the Trump administration's tariffs were illegal. Yesterday, the Court of International Trade ruled that President Donald Trump had overstepped his authority when he imposed the Liberation Day tariffs back in April. North America correspondent Lauren Day is in Washington, DC. Lauren, where do Donald Trump's tariffs stand now? Lauren Day: Well, it's a good question, Andy. The Trump administration had immediately filed an emergency motion trying to have this overruled. They told the court that suddenly halting these tariffs would harm national security and it looks like an appeals court has agreed with them. They've reinstated the tariffs for now and given both parties extra time to respond. In the meantime, the tariffs will be reinstated. The issue in this case, of course, was that they'd used this emergency law to implement this, which they said was warranted both to stop the flow of fentanyl and to address trade deficits with much of the world. Now, that logic was somewhat undermined by the fact that they also imposed the tariffs on countries like Australia, which have trade surpluses. And the judge yesterday found that the president had overstepped his authority here. But clearly, the appeals court has sided with the Trump administration in this case for now. The legal fight will obviously continue and it could still end up in the Supreme Court. Earlier today, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, urged the court to intervene and to put an end to this for the sake of our Constitution and our country, she said. She also hit out at the justices in this case, which has obviously been a theme throughout the Trump presidency. Here's a little of what she said earlier. Karoline Leavitt: The courts should have no role here. There is a troubling and dangerous trend of unelected judges inserting themselves into the presidential decision making process. America cannot function if President Trump or any other president for that matter has their sensitive diplomatic or trade negotiations railroaded by activist judges. Andy Park: That's White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt there. And so, Lauren, where does this leave Australia and other nations for that matter caught up in this trade war? Lauren Day: We haven't had fresh reaction from the major players, and they're no doubt scrambling to figure that out themselves. But this limbo will no doubt continue. And it's clear this is going to still have a big impact on these trade negotiations if it does remove what was a big bargaining chip for the United States, those high, sky-high tariffs that they were threatening. Now, Don Farrell, the trade minister, told the ABC earlier that they would study the ruling yesterday, that it may be subject to further legal processes through the courts, perhaps foreshadowing what we've just seen with the Court of Appeal. Before the appeals court decision, the White House confirmed that it was also considering other legal avenues to impose these tariffs if the ruling had held. And I spoke to economist Justin Wolfers, who said there were plenty of other avenues that they could explore, other options for them to impose these tariffs, because, of course, the industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars remain in place. So it was possible, for example, they could use that mechanism for these broader tariffs. Either way, Justin Wolfers says he doesn't expect that Donald Trump will give up without a fight. Here's what he told me earlier. Justin Wolfers: The president's commitment to tariffs is absolutely real. It's a failure to understand Economics 101. It's a mistake that he started making at the age of 19. And the thing about 80-year-olds is they don't often reverse course when someone opens a new page in an economics textbook and explains it to them. Andy Park: Justin Wolfers there, the economics professor with the University of Michigan. Before him, our North America correspondent, Lauren Day. People in northern Gaza say they won't leave despite not receiving any food for weeks and in the face of intensifying Israeli attacks. A new aid organisation approved by the Israeli government has started delivering food to desperate people in southern and central Gaza. But those in the north say they're going without. Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek reports. Eric Tlozek: Palestinians fill the road into Gaza City, carrying mattresses, blankets and gas bottles. They're fleeing Israeli bombing of their homes. Eric Tlozek: We were in hell and we just entered paradise, this man says. Thanks to the people of Gaza City who welcomed us, these people have come looking for shelter and a semblance of safety. But one thing they won't find is food. Aid groups say none of the food recently allowed into Gaza by the Israeli military is reaching the north because of Israel's expanded offensive, the desperate looting of aid trucks and warehouses and restrictions imposed on humanitarian agencies by the Israeli military. Gaza City residents like Noman Abu Jarad say they're starving. Noman Abu Jarad: To tell you the truth, all the people of Gaza are suffering from real starvation. We're not almost in starvation. No, we are in the middle of a real starvation crisis. There are none of the basic needs for life like drinking water, food, you can hardly find bread, even a bowl of soup is hard to get. People are really starving. Eric Tlozek: The only food people in Gaza City are getting is from a handful of charity kitchens which dole out bowls of noodles or lentils. But they're working with extremely limited supplies. Israel wants a new aid organisation with unknown funding and experience to replace the extensive distribution system in Gaza that was managed by the United Nations. That group, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, has opened three aid delivery sites to distribute basic food parcels, including a new site in central Gaza. Umm Mohammed Eissa was one of the people who rushed there to get food, but she left disappointed. Umm Mohammed Eissa: They said there is aid here, so we came running. I can't even walk and when I came they told me there's nothing left. Some people have carts carrying boxes and I cannot get one kilogram of flour or a bottle of oil. This is not right. I feel frustrated. What is this? This is chaos. Eric Tlozek: None of the aid distribution sites are in northern Gaza, although the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says it will open some there in the future. Humanitarian agencies suspect the Israeli government wants to force people in the north to move south. But northerners like Arafat Sukkar say they won't go, even if they starve. Arafat Sukkar: The idea of moving to the south just for food is out of the question. We refuse totally the fact that we need to move to eat. Since the beginning of the war, if the people from the north wanted to move to the south, they would have done it. We defy such policies. They want to starve us and we refuse. Eric Tlozek: The Israeli government has reportedly accepted a new ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States. Hamas says it's studying the deal, but early indications are that the offer doesn't meet any of the conditions the group wants, specifically an end to the war and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. Andy Park: Eric Tlozek there. Amid the ongoing Healthscope saga, patients are perplexed about what it means for them. Now in another challenge for the health sector, a private psychiatric hospital in Brisbane has announced its closure. The Australian Medical Association says private health insurance customers are now reconsidering their investment. Elizabeth Cramsie reports. Elizabeth Cramsie: Jess McClusky is pregnant with her second child, but this time around she won't be able to give birth in the hospital of her choice. Jess McClusky: People that have laboured in hallways and those kinds of things, so that's one of the major concerns I think for me, having to go to the public hospital, where I know that at the private, that doesn't happen. Elizabeth Cramsie: Healthscope, which operates Darwin's only private hospital, has gone into receivership, and from next week there will be no private maternity services in Darwin. For patients like Jess, who pay for private health insurance, the move is making them reconsider. Jess McClusky: If you're paying for the insurance and you can't get anything for it, what's the point? What's the point in having it? Elizabeth Cramsie: But the upheaval in hospital care is not just limited to those operated by Healthscope. Now a major private Queensland hospital has announced it will close its doors. Management of Toowong Private Psychiatric Hospital says it's being forced to close due to insufficient payments provided by private health insurers. It's something that was put to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on ABC Radio Brisbane yesterday. Anthony Albanese: Quite clearly the health insurers need to pay additional money for the private health care that's provided and that is creating an issue across the board. Elizabeth Cramsie: Brett Heffernan is the Chief Executive of the Australian Private Hospital Alliance. Brett Heffernan: Toowong Private Hospital, it's been an institution in Brisbane, been there for 50 years. It's had the same management team for 30 years and they're closing their doors all because the health insurance industry refused to pay their bills in full. Elizabeth Cramsie: With private hospitals accounting for 62% of all acute mental health care across Australia, Brett Heffernan warns more are dangerously close to shutting down. Brett Heffernan: I've got another eight or so, most of which are mental health hospitals, who are earmarked for closure. Now, there's no comparison between public and private hospital mental health care. They do two very different things. So when these private mental health facilities shut down, there's pretty much nowhere for the patients to go. Elizabeth Cramsie: Dr Danielle McMullen is the President of the Australian Medical Association. Dr Danielle McMullen: It's really important that our governments come together with insurers and private hospitals and groups like the AMA, we think under a private health system authority, to really drive the reforms that we need to see. Elizabeth Cramsie: In a statement, Federal Health Minister Mark Butler says the solutions lie with the insurers and hospitals working together. It's incumbent on them to come together and find solutions. Andy Park: Elizabeth Cramsie for more. A short time ago, I spoke to Ben Harris from Private Health Care Australia. That's the Australian private health insurance industry's peak body. Ben Harris, welcome to you. Good morning, Andy. You heard the PM, the insurers need to pay more. What's your response? Ben Harris: Yesterday, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority showed that private health insurers paid 7.7% more to private hospitals to March than the previous year. Andy Park: So the PM's wrong, is that it? Ben Harris: No, the PM is right and we are delivering more money to private hospitals for more care for Australians who need care. Andy Park: I mean, with Healthscope's demise and now this closure of an unrelated Brisbane psychiatric hospital, are Australian private health care patients right to worry about what it is they're in fact paying for? Ben Harris: People should be assured at the moment that services are available. The Healthscope situation is very troubling to us and we've been assured by Healthscope that services will remain open. But despite concerns about viability of private hospitals, there is strong demand for hospital services and when hospitals close, there are other hospitals opening. Over the last 10 years, 143 private hospitals have closed but 165 have opened. There are more hospital beds available now than there were 10 years ago. Andy Park: You do have to wonder, there's been a lot of finger pointing between the hospitals and the health funds over things like rising costs and who should carry the can for that. In that debate, has consumer confidence been a victim? Ben Harris: We actually have more people joining private health insurance than ever before and our role as health insurers is to make sure that consumers' premiums don't go up in the high inflation environment any more than necessary. We need to make sure that consumers maintain access to private health insurance, otherwise the system does start falling over. The most important thing for hospitals is to get people through the door and there's a lot that's going into that at the moment. We're seeing out of pocket costs for the community increasing and that's actually tightening the pipeline and meaning fewer people are getting into hospital as people can't afford to go and see a medical specialist. Andy Park: Ben Harris is from Private Healthcare Australia. Thanks for your time this morning. Ben Harris: Thanks Andy. Andy Park: An ongoing investigation into the death of a 24-year-old Indigenous man at a shopping centre in Alice Springs, while in police custody, is having some far-reaching consequences. Now, a long-awaited coronial inquest into the death of another man from the same remote Aboriginal community could be pushed back. Senior Warlpiri leaders and other First Nations advocates demand an independent investigation into this most recent death and are repeating calls for a rethink of policing. Myles Houlbrook-Walk reports and a warning, First Nations people might be advised the following story contains the name of a person who's died. Myles Houlbrook-Walk: The 24-year-old man with disabilities died while being restrained by officers in an Alice Springs supermarket on Tuesday. This woman, who wouldn't give her name, says she was in the shop when security approached him. Woman: I saw a, like, bald man in a grey hoodie come up behind the person who's passed away and kind of wrapped his arms around his torso in, like, a bear hug. You could hear the man screaming in distress throughout the store. Myles Houlbrook-Walk: Police have said the Indigenous man had been placing items down the front of his clothing in the Cole's supermarket, leading to the confrontation with security guards. But questions remain about the circumstances leading to his death. Video from police, body-worn camera and security has not been made public, with the family demanding to be shown footage of the moments leading up to his death. Aboriginal Affairs Minister for the Northern Territory, Steve Edgington, was previously a police officer in the NT. Steve Edgington: It is a reasonable request, but what I would say is that the matter is under investigation. They're conducting a very thorough investigation. We don't want to see anything that will compromise the investigation. Karl Hampton: We need the process that's going to be going underway now to be transparent and open for the family so they've got some idea on what really happened. Myles Houlbrook-Walk: That's Warlpiri man, Karl Hampton. Police say the man's cause of death remains undetermined, with the Territory's forensic pathologist continuing to investigate. Karl Hampton: So tragic what's happened. It was unnecessary. But people need to be held accountable for what has happened. And I think we all need to take some time to think about that. Myles Houlbrook-Walk: Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister, Malarndirri McCarthy, says it's possible an independent investigation could allay tension in the community. Malarndirri McCarthy: I believe that calls for an independent investigation may be warranted. It may be important to do that. Myles Houlbrook-Walk: Meanwhile, the Northern Territory Police Assistant Commissioner, Travis Wurst, has visited Yuendumu, where the man who died was from, before he moved to Alice Springs. It's the same remote community that was home to another Aboriginal man who died in police custody. In 2019, Kumanjayi Walker was shot by police, sparking anger and widespread protests. Theresa Roe is the chair of the North Australian Aboriginal Justice Agency. Theresa Roe: They've been traumatised ever since 2019 with the Kumanjayi case. They were looking forward to hearing the outcomes of the inquiry. And now this has happened. It's very traumatic. Myles Houlbrook-Walk: The findings of a coronial inquiry into Kumanjayi Walker's death had been due in just under two weeks, following a years-long investigation. A spokesperson for the Territory's courts has advised the media that might have to be pushed back, acknowledging it's not yet known how recent events will affect the inquiry. Andy Park: Myles Houlbrook-Walk there. Children make up 43 percent of Papua New Guinea's population, but for many of them, life is incredibly tough. More than half of all kids don't have access to basic water services, according to the UN, and one in five have experienced violence in their short lifetimes. These statistics are alarming, but it's something the country is hoping to turn around with the help of a new parliamentary committee. PNG correspondent Marian Faa reports from Port Moresby. And a warning, this story talks about issues that might be distressing for some. Marian Faa: Working in child protection in PNG's capital, Danielle Winfrey is shaken by what she sees. Danielle Winfrey: Incidents of child abuse is very high, and especially sexual abuse of children, and little girls are most vulnerable. Marian Faa: Two weeks ago, she met a 12-year-old girl who she says was forced into prostitution by her mother. Danielle Winfrey: Sleeping with men to bring money home. And if she didn't want to, she'd beat her daughter up. Marian Faa: The child is now living in a safe house and receiving medical treatment for HIV. But dealing with cases like these every day has an impact on the child protection worker. Danielle Winfrey: Oh, I get emotional. And you know, there's so many of my front-liner colleagues, we become sensitised, we become hardened to it, but I refuse to. I still cry, because it's not normal, and I cannot accept it. Marian Faa: In PNG, childhood is too often a place of hardship. According to the UN, almost half of all children under five are stunted because of malnutrition. 45 per cent don't have access to basic water services, and 80 per cent of teenagers aren't attending school. It's something the country is hoping to turn around with the establishment of a new parliamentary committee for child wellbeing. PNG Prime Minister James Marape says the move has received bipartisan support. James Marape : It is not just a government of the day program, but it is combined leadership. Marian Faa: The new committee was welcomed by the United Nations Special Representative on Violence Against Children, Dr Najat M'jid, who visited PNG for the first time this week. She told the ABC the committee will provide an oversight role. Dr Najat M'jid: Monitoring, receiving complaints, tracking the budget, making all services accountable, because the problem of child protection and wellbeing is so cross-sectoral. Marian Faa: It's brought hope to those who matter most. Doreen Oswald is a grade 12 student in Port Moresby who was at Parliament House for the announcement. Doreen Oswald: We can literally see what's happening around here in our own country, right? All we have to do is maybe we could change. Marian Faa: Year 11 student David Martin hopes it will make a difference for him and his friends. David Martin: I've been raised from the streets, so I have a lot of friends that are not educated, doesn't have a home, proper place to sleep. Most of my friends are not schooling. Marian Faa: And for Danielle Winfrey, it's a marker of change. Danielle Winfrey: So having this political will now that we're seeing, the set up of the Child Protection Parliamentary Committee, that's a huge milestone for the country and it's a ray of hope for us, you know? Marian Faa: In Port Moresby, this is Marian Faa, reporting for AM. And if this story has raised concerns for you or anyone you know, you can call Lifeline on 13 11 14. And that's AM for today. Thanks for your company. I'm Andy Park. Sam Hawley: Hi, it's Sam Hawley here, host of the ABC News Daily podcast. He spent a long time praising him, but now Donald Trump's view of Vladimir Putin is shifting. The US president describes his once so-called friend as "crazy" and "playing with fire". Today, international relations expert Rajan Menon on why Putin will only ever humour Trump, but never do as he asks and end the war. Look for the ABC News Daily podcast on the ABC Listen app.
ABC News
29-05-2025
- General
- ABC News
Why Trump can't get 'crazy' Putin to end the war
Sam Hawley: He spent a long time praising him, but now Donald Trump's view of Vladimir Putin is shifting. The US president describes his once so-called friend as 'crazy' and 'playing with fire'. As Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine including the largest bombardment of Kyiv since the start of the war. Today, international relations expert Rajan Menon on why Putin will only ever humour Trump, but never do as he asks and end the war. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal Land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Sam Hawley: Rajan, not so long ago, Donald Trump was full of praise for his friend Vladimir Putin. He said he was savvy, a genius, among other things. Rajan Menon: We have to begin with his boast that he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Sam Hawley: Yes. Donald Trump, US President: Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled. It will be settled quickly. Rajan Menon: And part of the undertow of that was that he had a connection with Putin that nobody else had. Donald Trump, US President: But they asked me, is Putin smart? Yes, Putin was smart. Donald Trump, US President: And I said, this is genius. Here's a guy who's very savvy. I know him very well. Donald Trump, US President: I've known him for a long time now. And I think he will... I don't believe he's going to violate his word. I don't think he'll be back. When we make a deal, I think the deal's going to hold. Rajan Menon: He prides himself on having a personal rapport with Putin that nobody else has. And I think, believes sincerely, that if he and Putin just get into the room, Putin's regard for him will be such that Donald Trump will come away with a deal. Now, this has never been defined in terms of what the deal would be. But yes, I think he does. He also, I think, has an extreme reluctance. And so we've seen in recent days an exception to this generalisation to criticise Putin. Sam Hawley: But, Rajan, things are certainly changing when it comes to Trump's gushing language. So let's just start last week when Donald Trump held a two-hour phone call with Vladimir Putin. Just tell me what happened after that. Rajan Menon: So he held a phone call, and it wasn't clear really what had happened. The Russians presented it as not a big deal. The White House made it seem like a much bigger event. Donald Trump, US President: We just spent two and a half hours talking to Vladimir Putin, and I think some progress has been made. Rajan Menon: I don't think that Putin gave him any kind of commitment. However, I think Putin is smart enough to know that he has to, at some level, humour Trump. And so if you were to ask me who understands who better, there's no question that Putin understands Trump's psychology better than the reverse. Sam Hawley: So after that phone call, Donald Trump's view, it seemed, was that it was an important step, this conversation, towards a ceasefire. And he believed, he said, that Putin wanted to stop the war. But then, of course, Putin proves that's certainly not the case by launching the most deadly strike on the capital, Kyiv, since the start of the conflict. Rajan Menon: Right. So as I may have told you before, Sam, I've been to wartime Ukraine four times, and I've seen what it's like to be in that situation. But I've heard from friends that what they've experienced in the last four or five days just defies description. Is far worse than anything that I encountered there. News report: Kyiv under attack. One of the biggest wave of strikes in the capital in three years. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President: Unfortunately, people were injured. Residential buildings and a shopping mall were damaged. Russia fills each day with horror and murder. Sam Hawley: And then this is when Donald Trump's language really starts to change, because he responds to this attack saying that Putin has gone absolutely crazy. Donald Trump, US President:: I'll give you an update. I'm not happy with what Putin's doing. He's killing a lot of people, and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time, always gotten along with him, but he's sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don't like it at all. Sam Hawley: And he threatens sanctions. Rajan Menon: Correct. But today he said, well, I'm going to give him two weeks to show that he's really serious about making peace. Reporter: Do you still believe that Putin actually wants to end the war? Donald Trump, US President: I can't tell you that, but I'll let you know in about two weeks. Within two weeks, we're going to find out very soon. We're going to find out whether or not he's tapping us along or not. And if he is, we'll respond a little bit differently. Rajan Menon: And then he was asked, well, Mr President, what is preventing you from imposing sanctions? And Trump said the following, well, I don't want to impose sanctions now because it will stand in the way of a deal. But there's no deal to be had. Donald Trump, US President: Only the fact that if I think I'm close to getting a deal, I don't want to screw it up by doing that. Let me tell you, I'm a lot tougher than the people you're talking about, but you have to know when to use that. Sam Hawley: And the language really matters, doesn't it, Rajan, because Donald Trump, he posted on Truth Social, which is his own social media platform, and said that Putin is playing with fire. And Russia responds to this, doesn't it? Rajan Menon: So the response was from Dmitry Medvedev, who is the chairman of the National Security Council. And he said, oh, Trump is saying bad things will happen. I can only think of one really bad thing that's going to happen, and Trump should be aware of this. That is World War III. So he fired back in the same, gave back in the same currency, as it were. The problem is that if you say, I will levy sanctions, this could bring about the collapse of Russia, I'll do this and I'll do that, and you don't follow through, somebody like Putin interprets that, as any reasonable person would, that this person doesn't really mean what he says, and I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing. Sam Hawley: Well, Rajan, descending into discussion of World War III, I would think it's pretty concerning. Russia has now proposed a second round of direct talks with Ukraine to discuss a potential peace settlement in Istanbul on June 2nd. But, I mean, neither Putin or Zelenskyy ended up attending the first round of talks. So what are you making of that? Rajan Menon: Well, but see, this is another example of providing something that looks like a meaningful gesture. Because the idea is that now Trump is in the position where he can tell the Republican Congress, those in his own party who are saying, we have to have sanctions, that, look, I've just gotten this message from Putin, he's now made this important concession, you know, what I said got his attention. He's now saying there should be a second round. But the question is, what will happen in the second round? The second round will sort of give, enable Trump to convince a lot of Americans that something significant is happening. Meanwhile, it gives Putin ample space to continue the war, because he's never said, and while these negotiations are going on, as a good faith gesture, I'll accept a ceasefire. That's not part of the deal. We can all agree that Putin wants to end the war, but that's not the issue, right? The question is on what terms. So his position all along, and one has to give him credit, at least for being honest, is, I have a claim to four Ukrainian provinces, now mind you, he only controls one of them fully, which is Luhansk. He doesn't control the other three, maybe about 60% or so. He wants that. He wants a Ukraine that is out of NATO for good and guaranteed. He wants limitations on Ukraine's soldiers and force structure, notwithstanding the fact that Ukraine poses no threat to Russia. So if you give him all that, of course he'll sign on the dotted line. There's no question that he will end the war. The question is, what is the asking price? Sam Hawley: And even if Trump does go beyond the threats on social media and he does impose, say, some more sanctions, will that make any difference at all to Vladimir Putin? Rajan Menon: I don't think so, because I think that Putin owns this war. Many people in the Russian national security hierarchy establishment thought this was a bad idea. This was Putin's war. And he cannot easily come back to Russia after the casualties they've suffered, after the economic burdens of the war, with something less or substantially less than his goal. So that's one reason. The other reason, I think, is that he believes that Trump is liable at some point to throw up his hands in exasperation and say, as he's done recently, this is not our war. It's up to the Europeans and walk away. And if American military aid is cut, that completely tilts the battlefield in Putin's favour. So I think that's his calculation. So there is no indication that I've seen that Putin wants to stop the war until he's achieved his objectives by conquering territory, or, and this is not going to happen, the Ukrainians finally say, okay, we've suffered so much that we're gonna give you everything that you want. I've never met any Ukrainian in the time that I've been there, including soldiers on the front, who've said that they're going to agree to Putin's terms. Sam Hawley: All right, well, Rajan, given Donald Trump has clearly failed to convince Vladimir Putin to halt the fighting, how is Ukraine placed right now in terms of international support? The US is, of course, providing weapons again. Rajan Menon: Yeah, so Trump has not approved a further tranche that is post-Biden, right? There's no indication that that is going to happen anytime soon that I know of. The Europeans cannot compensate for the American departure were it to happen,they don't have the wherewithal to fill the gap. That being said, I think the, Trump has concentrated minds in Europe and I think that certain important things are happening. So for example, the other day, Chancellor Merz, the newly elected Chancellor of Germany said, along with other European leaders, that we have now lifted our restrictions. Ukraine can use the weapons that we give it for deep strikes into Russia, that's a big step. Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor: From my point of view, it's necessary because someone who can only repel an attack on their own territory can't adequately defend themselves. Only someone who's also able to attack military bases on the aggressor's territory can defend themselves. Rajan Menon: The second thing is that the Europeans combined had promised to deliver Ukraine something like two million artillery shells, and they have delivered about two thirds as much. Germany, a country that's not known for bold steps, has plans to move 5,000 troops into Lithuania. Defence spending is increasing. So there's a kind of urgency in Europe. There's always a problem because Europe is a collection of countries and there's a collective action problem. Can they agree on something? But so far, they seem to take things seriously. I mean, here's the rub, right? Trump is right when he says, this is not America's war. We have a big, beautiful, he loves that phrase, ocean between us and Ukraine. That is true. The Europeans, I think, understand that a Ukraine that is subordinated to Russia will have very significant consequences for them. Sam Hawley: All right, well, Rajan, just tell me, how is the war actually looking? We know Russia has made advances. Is there a point where this could seriously shift in Putin's favour? Rajan Menon: Yes. So let's assume a scenario in which Trump decides, well, I've given it my all. I've tried to, as it were, seduce Putin by flattering him. I've tried threatening him. None of this has worked and this is essentially not a big deal for me. And he leaves, that would be a very serious blow. And the Russian army has taken enormous casualties. They've lost an incredible amount of weaponry against a side that is manifestly weaker. But slowly, in mile by mile, little by little, they are inching forward. They have just a huge amount of superiority in sheer numbers. So yes, firepower is very important. Financial support is important. Support for Ukraine's military industry, which is really kind of coming into its own, especially in the area of drones, it's important. So to summarise it, Western support is absolutely crucial. Sam Hawley: And what percentage do you give the chance of a ceasefire at this point? Rajan Menon: I would say, if you ask me, and I'm not a betting man, but if you were to ask me, what's your best sense? I would say, I would be extraordinarily surprised if the war were to end by the end of the year. I could easily see it going into next February 24th, that is 2026, at which point the Russian army would have fought the Ukrainians for almost as long as it fought Nazi Germany. This is not what Putin planned on when he began the war on February 24th, 2022. Sam Hawley: Rajan Menon is a Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the City College of New York and a Senior Research Fellow at Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Adair Sheppard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.
ABC News
22-05-2025
- Automotive
- ABC News
Can Bezos dethrone Musk with a cheap EV ute
Sam Hawley: It's the battle of the billionaires. Elon Musk's once firm grasp on the EV market seems to be crumbling as Tesla sales slump. So, bring in Jeff Bezos. The Amazon founder wants to give Elon a run for his money, investing in an electric ute. Today, Giles Parkinson, founder and editor of Renew Economy and The Driven, on how it could be a game changer in the market. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal Land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Giles, the Amazon founder and billionaire Jeff Bezos, he's decided to take on Elon Musk in the EV market, which is quite frankly a pretty good time, right, because Tesla sales have been tanking. Giles Parkinson: They have indeed. Tesla sales have been falling around the world, including in Australia. If we go back just about 18 months ago, Tesla had a market share of well over 50%, 68% as recently as January 2023, and that's been declining steadily over the last 18 months. Now, mostly that's because of increased competition, so we've got a lot more EV models in Australia. But there's been issues in the last six months, one with the reputation of Elon Musk and his political posturing and the support for right-wing parties, and then the retooling of the factories for the new model Y. But this move by Jeff Bezos is quite fascinating. It's an electric ute called Slate. Slate advertisement: This is a Slate. This slate seats two and can carry sheets of plywood. This Slate seats five... Giles Parkinson: Which ironically is actually an anagram of Tesla. Sam Hawley: Oh, yes. Giles Parkinson: Which is a delightful touch. Sam Hawley: Do you think they did that on purpose? Giles Parkinson: I think they might have. Who knows? And look, it promises to deliver an electric ute, a low-cost, no-frills ute. Slate advertisement: We took out everything that wasn't a car. Slate advertisement: That means no fancy screen, coloured lighting, cooled seats, self-driving, self-parking, automatic cupholders. Yes, that's a thing. Giles Parkinson: Look, they're saying 27,000 US, which translates to about 43,000 Australian. Sam Hawley: So, it's quite cheap relatively in the market because the EV trucks or utes, as we like to call them, of course, are pretty expensive, aren't they, right now? Giles Parkinson: Oh, they're hugely expensive. If you look in Australia, well, we basically don't have any options for fully electric utes in Australia. There's a couple of imported ones, the Ford Lightning, which is about $200, the US, there's about three or four options, like Tesla's Cybertruck, which is about$60,000 to $100,000 US. The Ford Lightning, which is about a similar range, and the Rivian. So, what Bezos is actually offering is less than half the that's going to be really interesting. And it's gotten 150,000 orders over the last two weeks since it was first unveiled, which shows the interest. Now, it's just a $50 deposit, and it's fully refundable, so it doesn't really translate into sales. But, look, that just shows the potential interest that's out there. Sam Hawley: It sure is. And the thing is, this Slate truck, it's pretty quirky, isn't it? Just tell me about the design of it. Giles Parkinson: Well, it's pretty small. So, think about that. You know, in Australia, you see lots of utes around the place now, and they're usually dual cabs. So, you can sit four people or a family. This one's single cab, so just two people. The tray is actually pretty small, just a little over half the size of, say, a Toyota Hilux. So, it's not a big tray. And inside, it's just basically the bare minimum. There's not even any speakers for the sound system. There's no electric digital screen. There's wind-up windows. You can make them electric, but you've got to pay more. There's fabric seats. You can make them nicer, but you've got to pay more. But, look, that's a really interesting concept. Because if you think about cars that are sold now, kind of we try to sell people, car makers are trying to sell you as much as possible. And then they kind of take away a few things to make it sound a bit cheaper for those who can't quite make that price. What Bezos is doing is a bit of a rethink of, well, let's make a car really, really, really, really cheap, make it as basic as possible. And if people want to make it slightly better, then they can pay more and they can add an electric window and nicer seats and a screen and sound system. Sam Hawley: And also, the thing is you can turn this ute into an SUV. It's like Lego. Giles Parkinson: Like Lego or a Transformer, I think, as the kids might think. Yeah, it's fascinating, isn't it? You just add things. So, yeah, they're just all talking about this basic product and, yeah, you want to make it into an SUV, we'll just put something on the back of it and get another seat or fold it down or put something else down. And we haven't really seen the details of that. But, yeah, it's a fascinating concept. We're not going to see it actually being made commercially until the end of next year. So, they're kind of teasing it. Sam Hawley: So, Jeff Bezos, he's backing this idea, this startup, and it really is taking on Musk, is it? Because of that, it's a very different concept in the EV market. Giles Parkinson: Well, it is. Look, Musk promised for many, many years to sort of deliver a really low-cost EV, and there's a great expectation that he would deliver one as cheap as $25,000 American or $20,000 American. Some even said $15,000 American. He hasn't delivered that. In fact, he hasn't really delivered very much in the last few years. There's the Model 3 and the Model Y. They're great cars, but they're about $40,000 or more US and sort of in the 60s in Australia. And he's done the Cybertruck, but that hasn't gone really well. And this low-cost Tesla has never really emerged. Now, this talk of it being kind of, you know, they're working frantically to produce this, and maybe that's because they've been driven by the competition, this new competition from Bezos. I mean, no other American company has challenged Tesla with a low-cost electric product. Ford and Chrysler and General Motors, sorry, and others have come in, but their cars have been pretty ordinary and expensive. No one's come in and attacked, you know, what you would describe as Tesla's weak spot. A US-made, US-sourced, including the batteries, low-cost EV. Now, whether they can pull it off will be, we'll wait and see, but it's pretty interesting. Sam Hawley: Okay, well, let's turn to Australia then. We don't know, of course, yet if this slate ute or slate truck will ever actually make it here, but we do love our utes, don't we? So, an EV version, I would think, would be in pretty high demand. Giles Parkinson: I think it would be in huge demand, but I'm not too sure we're going to go for a small ute. Now, we just seem to be going into this, we've gone into this giganticism. You know, we don't want just a ute now, we want a dual cab ute so we can put the whole family in it. Now, look, a lot of that has been driven by tax advantages. Tradies can go out and get a ute and get big tax advantages and they can basically use it as the family car. So, whether we go for a smaller one, I don't know. What Australia desperately needs is an electric ute, though, that's competitively priced. Sam Hawley: Yeah, and of course, all those big utes that we see were largely thanks to Scott Morrison, of course. And back in 2019, he did make the point, didn't he, that perhaps EVs really wouldn't be able to do the job that the ute would do. They wouldn't be able to pull a trailer, was his words. Scott Morrison, fmr Prime Minister: It's not going to tow your trailer, it's not going to tow your boat, it's not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot with your family. Bill Shorten wants to end the weekend when it comes to his policy on electric vehicles, where you've got Australian... Giles Parkinson: Well, that's what we've proved to be nonsense. You're now seeing EVs coming out which are perfectly capable of pulling boats and doing other things. We have not yet seen electric utes, but we've seen some pretty solid electric cars, you know, with pretty big batteries that can do all that. And I think there's been so many trips around Australia and so many people going on long-distance holidays and things that have sort of proven that. But do you know what? I think we kid ourselves in Australia about how much we like to drive and how much we drive. There's actually some statistics that come out and shows that Australians, on average, drive a lot less than people in Europe and people in the US. Like, on average, it's about 14,000 kilometres a year compared to 18,000 kilometres in Europe and over 20,000 in the US. So, we've kind of convinced ourselves, because we go on a holiday once a year and we try to drive long distance, we've convinced ourselves that we do all these huge thousands of kilometres, but we don't. So, we don't actually need such a big battery or maybe even such a big car, but I guess, you know, consumers are always right. Sam Hawley: So, Giles, let's then have a quick update on where we're up to overall when it comes to EV sales in Australia. What are we actually seeing? Giles Parkinson: Well, basically, we're seeing the big fall in Tesla sales. And without that, the EV sales in Australia would have grown slightly over the last year. But because Tesla sales have sort of fallen so dramatically, that's just basically mean that the market's sort of fallen by about 30 or 40 percent. Because Tesla accounted for more than half the market. In April, in the month of April, they accounted for just 8 percent of the market. They only sold 500 vehicles. Now, there's a few reasons for that. There's not just the, you know, the pushback against Musk or the waiting for the new Model Y, which is going to start deliveries this month. There was also logistical issues, boats arriving or not arriving and things like that. So, I don't expect that 8 percent to be repeated again. But it's going to be really interesting to see how the new Model Y goes. I imagine we'll get an initial burst. There'll be several thousand rolling out the door. What happens after that, we shall wait and see. We'd like to think that it would do well because that's important for the whole EV market. There is more competition, but not a lot of it. I mean, we calculated that there's now 100 electric vehicle models in Australia available for choice. That compares to just six, just seven years that's a big increase. But not a lot of them have taken up, like, got a lot of traction. Some of them have done okay for a short period of time. But there's only been a couple of others that have done really, really well. Look, part of it's because there's lots of new brands, particularly from China, and people aren't familiar with them and maybe they're sort of hesitant about a brand they've never heard of. Perhaps they'd be more comfortable with a legacy brand that's gone electric. But the legacy brands aren't in the big rush to offer a lot of affordable electric vehicles yet. Sam Hawley: Yeah, they're just a bit too expensive for a lot of people still. But we do have this newly re-elected, of course, Labor government that supports EVs. So what should we expect? What will it be doing to encourage EV sales? Giles Parkinson: So what car makers now have to do is to meet these sort of vehicle emission standards. And some people think they should have been tighter, but they are what they are. They are going to force anyway a lot of those car companies who are not doing very much in EVs to try and get lower polluting cars out the door. Now, some of them will try hybrids, but that won't be enough for some of them. Some of them are going to have to come up with electric cars, and they're going to have to sell those electric cars. I think you're going to see more brands coming out. I think you're going to see more lower cost EVs coming out. I think there's going to be a big rush of new models in the second half of the year and into next year. So I think the policy is probably going to have its desired effect. What we still don't know yet is the consumer response to all that. Are they going to go for that? Because we're not forcing consumers to do it. We're just encouraging car makers to offer these products and to try and sell them. Sam Hawley: So what do you think? How important would an electric ute, an affordable electric ute, be in convincing people to dump their petrol vehicles in an Australian market? Giles Parkinson: I think it would be an absolute game changer. I just think it would be the thing that would really change people's minds about EVs in general. Now, we've seen some of these car companies going to plug-in hybrids. The plug-in hybrids actually have a separate motor, separate battery that can go, say, between 50 or 100 kilometres electric only. So if you're just driving around the city, which most people do, you could spend your whole year just driving electric only and just using petrol or diesel on the long distance trip. We saw the release of a plug-in hybrid ute from BYD, and it was reasonably priced, just under $60,000, and that did really well. It was the third best-selling vehicle or third best-selling ute in Australia. It sort of overtook the Isuzu. It's not fully electric, but it's kind of a bit of a stepping stone, I think, for a lot of people. So that shows the potential, I think. But when we will see a fully electric ute priced like that with the same capabilities, there's nothing immediately on the horizon, but we can be hopeful. Sam Hawley: So how long do you think, though, Giles, until electric utes, fully electric utes, are the norm on our streets? Giles Parkinson: Well, if you asked me four years ago, I would have said by now, but I was obviously wrong. So I'm hoping really within about two or three years, I think. Well, it's probably going to be two years before we see a couple of models which are competitively priced and have the same sort of capabilities. We're kind of waiting for those legacy companies, the Toyota, the Fords, the Mitsubishis, all those ones to actually sort of make that transition. They don't seem that enthusiastic, so maybe we need sort of consumers to sort of go, hey, guys, we actually want electric. Because, I mean, people's bills for diesel utes and things like that, I mean, they're just huge. I mean, it's just frightening what they're paying each week. Sam Hawley: Very expensive to fill up the tank. So in the meantime, though, may the best billionaire win, Giles. Giles Parkinson: Yeah, well, it's going to be fascinating to watch. There'll be no love lost between them, of course. But look, competition's a good thing. If Bezos can deliver and that inspires Tesla to respond with its own lower-cost EV, even if it's not a low-cost ute, or maybe they will, that's good. Sam Hawley: Giles Parkinson is the founder and editor of Renew Economy and EV website, The Driven. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Adair Sheppard and Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.
