Why Trump can't get 'crazy' Putin to end the war
Sam Hawley: Rajan, not so long ago, Donald Trump was full of praise for his friend Vladimir Putin. He said he was savvy, a genius, among other things.
Rajan Menon: We have to begin with his boast that he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
Sam Hawley: Yes.
Donald Trump, US President: Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled. It will be settled quickly.
Rajan Menon: And part of the undertow of that was that he had a connection with Putin that nobody else had.
Donald Trump, US President: But they asked me, is Putin smart? Yes, Putin was smart.
Donald Trump, US President: And I said, this is genius. Here's a guy who's very savvy. I know him very well.
Donald Trump, US President: I've known him for a long time now. And I think he will... I don't believe he's going to violate his word. I don't think he'll be back. When we make a deal, I think the deal's going to hold.
Rajan Menon: He prides himself on having a personal rapport with Putin that nobody else has. And I think, believes sincerely, that if he and Putin just get into the room, Putin's regard for him will be such that Donald Trump will come away with a deal. Now, this has never been defined in terms of what the deal would be. But yes, I think he does. He also, I think, has an extreme reluctance. And so we've seen in recent days an exception to this generalisation to criticise Putin.
Sam Hawley: But, Rajan, things are certainly changing when it comes to Trump's gushing language. So let's just start last week when Donald Trump held a two-hour phone call with Vladimir Putin. Just tell me what happened after that.
Rajan Menon: So he held a phone call, and it wasn't clear really what had happened. The Russians presented it as not a big deal. The White House made it seem like a much bigger event.
Donald Trump, US President: We just spent two and a half hours talking to Vladimir Putin, and I think some progress has been made.
Rajan Menon: I don't think that Putin gave him any kind of commitment. However, I think Putin is smart enough to know that he has to, at some level, humour Trump. And so if you were to ask me who understands who better, there's no question that Putin understands Trump's psychology better than the reverse.
Sam Hawley: So after that phone call, Donald Trump's view, it seemed, was that it was an important step, this conversation, towards a ceasefire. And he believed, he said, that Putin wanted to stop the war. But then, of course, Putin proves that's certainly not the case by launching the most deadly strike on the capital, Kyiv, since the start of the conflict.
Rajan Menon: Right. So as I may have told you before, Sam, I've been to wartime Ukraine four times, and I've seen what it's like to be in that situation. But I've heard from friends that what they've experienced in the last four or five days just defies description. Is far worse than anything that I encountered there.
News report: Kyiv under attack. One of the biggest wave of strikes in the capital in three years.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President: Unfortunately, people were injured. Residential buildings and a shopping mall were damaged. Russia fills each day with horror and murder.
Sam Hawley: And then this is when Donald Trump's language really starts to change, because he responds to this attack saying that Putin has gone absolutely crazy.
Donald Trump, US President:: I'll give you an update. I'm not happy with what Putin's doing. He's killing a lot of people, and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time, always gotten along with him, but he's sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don't like it at all.
Sam Hawley: And he threatens sanctions.
Rajan Menon: Correct. But today he said, well, I'm going to give him two weeks to show that he's really serious about making peace.
Reporter: Do you still believe that Putin actually wants to end the war?
Donald Trump, US President: I can't tell you that, but I'll let you know in about two weeks. Within two weeks, we're going to find out very soon. We're going to find out whether or not he's tapping us along or not. And if he is, we'll respond a little bit differently.
Rajan Menon: And then he was asked, well, Mr President, what is preventing you from imposing sanctions? And Trump said the following, well, I don't want to impose sanctions now because it will stand in the way of a deal. But there's no deal to be had.
Donald Trump, US President: Only the fact that if I think I'm close to getting a deal, I don't want to screw it up by doing that. Let me tell you, I'm a lot tougher than the people you're talking about, but you have to know when to use that.
Sam Hawley: And the language really matters, doesn't it, Rajan, because Donald Trump, he posted on Truth Social, which is his own social media platform, and said that Putin is playing with fire. And Russia responds to this, doesn't it?
Rajan Menon: So the response was from Dmitry Medvedev, who is the chairman of the National Security Council. And he said, oh, Trump is saying bad things will happen. I can only think of one really bad thing that's going to happen, and Trump should be aware of this. That is World War III. So he fired back in the same, gave back in the same currency, as it were. The problem is that if you say, I will levy sanctions, this could bring about the collapse of Russia, I'll do this and I'll do that, and you don't follow through, somebody like Putin interprets that, as any reasonable person would, that this person doesn't really mean what he says, and I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing.
Sam Hawley: Well, Rajan, descending into discussion of World War III, I would think it's pretty concerning. Russia has now proposed a second round of direct talks with Ukraine to discuss a potential peace settlement in Istanbul on June 2nd. But, I mean, neither Putin or Zelenskyy ended up attending the first round of talks. So what are you making of that?
Rajan Menon: Well, but see, this is another example of providing something that looks like a meaningful gesture. Because the idea is that now Trump is in the position where he can tell the Republican Congress, those in his own party who are saying, we have to have sanctions, that, look, I've just gotten this message from Putin, he's now made this important concession, you know, what I said got his attention. He's now saying there should be a second round. But the question is, what will happen in the second round? The second round will sort of give, enable Trump to convince a lot of Americans that something significant is happening. Meanwhile, it gives Putin ample space to continue the war, because he's never said, and while these negotiations are going on, as a good faith gesture, I'll accept a ceasefire. That's not part of the deal. We can all agree that Putin wants to end the war, but that's not the issue, right? The question is on what terms. So his position all along, and one has to give him credit, at least for being honest, is, I have a claim to four Ukrainian provinces, now mind you, he only controls one of them fully, which is Luhansk. He doesn't control the other three, maybe about 60% or so. He wants that. He wants a Ukraine that is out of NATO for good and guaranteed. He wants limitations on Ukraine's soldiers and force structure, notwithstanding the fact that Ukraine poses no threat to Russia. So if you give him all that, of course he'll sign on the dotted line. There's no question that he will end the war. The question is, what is the asking price?
Sam Hawley: And even if Trump does go beyond the threats on social media and he does impose, say, some more sanctions, will that make any difference at all to Vladimir Putin?
Rajan Menon: I don't think so, because I think that Putin owns this war. Many people in the Russian national security hierarchy establishment thought this was a bad idea. This was Putin's war. And he cannot easily come back to Russia after the casualties they've suffered, after the economic burdens of the war, with something less or substantially less than his goal. So that's one reason. The other reason, I think, is that he believes that Trump is liable at some point to throw up his hands in exasperation and say, as he's done recently, this is not our war. It's up to the Europeans and walk away. And if American military aid is cut, that completely tilts the battlefield in Putin's favour. So I think that's his calculation. So there is no indication that I've seen that Putin wants to stop the war until he's achieved his objectives by conquering territory, or, and this is not going to happen, the Ukrainians finally say, okay, we've suffered so much that we're gonna give you everything that you want. I've never met any Ukrainian in the time that I've been there, including soldiers on the front, who've said that they're going to agree to Putin's terms.
Sam Hawley: All right, well, Rajan, given Donald Trump has clearly failed to convince Vladimir Putin to halt the fighting, how is Ukraine placed right now in terms of international support? The US is, of course, providing weapons again.
Rajan Menon: Yeah, so Trump has not approved a further tranche that is post-Biden, right? There's no indication that that is going to happen anytime soon that I know of. The Europeans cannot compensate for the American departure were it to happen,they don't have the wherewithal to fill the gap. That being said, I think the, Trump has concentrated minds in Europe and I think that certain important things are happening. So for example, the other day, Chancellor Merz, the newly elected Chancellor of Germany said, along with other European leaders, that we have now lifted our restrictions. Ukraine can use the weapons that we give it for deep strikes into Russia, that's a big step.
Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor: From my point of view, it's necessary because someone who can only repel an attack on their own territory can't adequately defend themselves. Only someone who's also able to attack military bases on the aggressor's territory can defend themselves.
Rajan Menon: The second thing is that the Europeans combined had promised to deliver Ukraine something like two million artillery shells, and they have delivered about two thirds as much. Germany, a country that's not known for bold steps, has plans to move 5,000 troops into Lithuania. Defence spending is increasing. So there's a kind of urgency in Europe. There's always a problem because Europe is a collection of countries and there's a collective action problem. Can they agree on something? But so far, they seem to take things seriously. I mean, here's the rub, right? Trump is right when he says, this is not America's war. We have a big, beautiful, he loves that phrase, ocean between us and Ukraine. That is true. The Europeans, I think, understand that a Ukraine that is subordinated to Russia will have very significant consequences for them.
Sam Hawley: All right, well, Rajan, just tell me, how is the war actually looking? We know Russia has made advances. Is there a point where this could seriously shift in Putin's favour?
Rajan Menon: Yes. So let's assume a scenario in which Trump decides, well, I've given it my all. I've tried to, as it were, seduce Putin by flattering him. I've tried threatening him. None of this has worked and this is essentially not a big deal for me. And he leaves, that would be a very serious blow. And the Russian army has taken enormous casualties. They've lost an incredible amount of weaponry against a side that is manifestly weaker. But slowly, in mile by mile, little by little, they are inching forward. They have just a huge amount of superiority in sheer numbers. So yes, firepower is very important. Financial support is important. Support for Ukraine's military industry, which is really kind of coming into its own, especially in the area of drones, it's important. So to summarise it, Western support is absolutely crucial.
Sam Hawley: And what percentage do you give the chance of a ceasefire at this point?
Rajan Menon: I would say, if you ask me, and I'm not a betting man, but if you were to ask me, what's your best sense? I would say, I would be extraordinarily surprised if the war were to end by the end of the year. I could easily see it going into next February 24th, that is 2026, at which point the Russian army would have fought the Ukrainians for almost as long as it fought Nazi Germany. This is not what Putin planned on when he began the war on February 24th, 2022.
Sam Hawley: Rajan Menon is a Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the City College of New York and a Senior Research Fellow at Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Adair Sheppard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.
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