Latest news with #RajanMenon
ABC News
6 days ago
- Politics
- ABC News
Will Trump strike a 'land swap' deal with Putin?
Sam Hawley: Donald Trump wants to win a Nobel Peace Prize and so he's desperate to end the war in Ukraine. At the end of the week, he's meeting the Russian president in the first face-to-face encounter the two men have had since Trump returned to the White House. The problem is, the Ukrainian leader won't be there. Today, international relations expert Rajan Menon on Trump's theatrics and what the summit will really achieve. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Sam Hawley: Rajan, here we go again. Donald Trump negotiating with Vladimir Putin. News report: What could be the mother of all summits, a face-to-face meeting between the US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. News report: Vladimir Putin is coming to America. The Russian president will meet Donald Trump in the US state of Alaska in talks designed to move Putin closer to a peace deal with Ukraine. News report: US president Donald Trump has warned that a land swap could form part of a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine. Donald Trump, US President: We're going to get some back, we're going to get some switched. There'll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both. Sam Hawley: What a turnaround because a few weeks ago he was threatening sanctions against him, wasn't he? Rajan Menon: Yes, it is a remarkable turnaround. It comes, as you know, right on the heels of Steve Witkoff's recent visit to Moscow, his fifth visit, Witkoff being Trump's special envoy both to Russia and the Middle East. And I think Putin put forward the idea of a meeting, Witkoff immediately seized on it, came back and reported to Trump. And the talk of sanctions has sort of fallen by the wayside. And now the meeting appears to be on. And the big question is whether Zelenskyy will be participating in some fashion, if at all. Sam Hawley: Yeah, well, he at this point doesn't seem to be invited. But in an address to the nation, Zelenskyy has said that, you know, you really can't trust the Russian leaders' intentions on this one. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President: We understand Russia's intention is to try to deceive America. We will not allow this. I greatly value the determination with which President Trump is committed to bringing an end to the killings in this war. But the sole root cause of these killings is Putin's desire to wage war and manipulate everyone he comes into contact with. Rajan Menon: You know, there's another problem. Trump is now attacking Zelenskyy for rejecting the idea of land swaps. The idea is that the two provinces that constitute the area called Donbas in Ukraine's east, namely Donetsk and Luhansk, would be given to the Russians, and two other provinces to Ukraine's south, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the land that Ukraine retains there would remain in Ukraine's hands. Now, who cooked up this idea? I don't know. Perhaps it was Witkoff who misunderstood and proposed it to Trump, but the Russians have officially proposed no such thing. So Zelenskyy has rejected it, and Trump is angry at him. Donald Trump, US President: I was a little bothered by the fact that Zelenskyy was saying, well, I have to get constitutional approval. I mean, he's got approval to go into war and kill everybody, but he needs approval to do a land swap. Rajan Menon: The problem is that the president appears not to understand that Zelenskyy couldn't accept it even if he wanted to, because under the Ukrainian constitution, any change to the territory of Ukraine or its boundaries requires a national referendum. Sam Hawley: So these comments from Trump, once again, he seems to be suggesting that this is a war that Zelenskyy in some way wants or caused. It's extraordinary. Rajan Menon: It is extraordinary. He said this, by the way, not once, but previously as well. And there's no question that all along, he has had little use for Zelenskyy, essentially accused him of being a stick-up man who comes to Washington and walks away with billions of dollars. He said this war would never have happened had he, Trump, been in the White House. He criticised Zelenskyy for not recognising the annexation of Crimea. And he has this unexplained kind of reverence for Putin. I mean, can you imagine him inviting Putin to the White House and savaging him in the way that Zelenskyy was savaged in that famous meeting? So as the summit unfolds, my own sense is that Putin is in a position to win either way. That is to say, he could put forward terms that are adverse to Ukraine's interest and could endorse them. Or there could fail to be a breakthrough and Trump would turn around and say, well, it was Zelenskyy's fault, which would also make Putin happy. Sam Hawley: All right. So Trump has flagged this potential of a land swap. So that will be discussed, we assume, during this meeting with Vladimir Putin. We don't know, as you say, if Zelenskyy might be asked along at the last minute at this point. But Ukraine has always said, Rajan, that it will not cede its territory to Russia. It just would never do that, would it? Rajan Menon: No, it wouldn't do it voluntarily. The one difficulty that Zelenskyy faces as regards the timing of this summit is that as we speak in Donetsk, which is now the major theatre of war, again, Donetsk province and Luhansk make up the area called Donbas. In Donetsk province, the Russian army has just broken through one of the main defence lines of Ukraine. And the problem is twofold. First, American supplies have ended. So there are no more Joe Biden-like tranches of multi-billion dollars of equipment. Secondly, the Russians just have more of everything and they're prepared to throw a lot of what they have at a front line that's 1,000 miles long. And the Ukrainians can't be fighting everywhere. So militarily, this has not been a good few months for the Ukrainians. And so Zelenskyy doesn't really have a lot of leverage. If you had to press me, I would say Trump would like to walk away from the war and leave the Europeans to handle this. Now, as the elected president of the United States, whatever you and I may think, it's his right to do that. My problem is that as he leaves, he wants to also shape the conflict in Russia's favour. That is not mediation. It's called something else. Sam Hawley: Well, on Fox News, J.D. Vance certainly indicated that he wants to wash his hands of the Ukraine war. He said that the American people don't want to pay for it anymore. JD Vance, US Vice President: Americans, I think, are sick of continuing to send their money, their tax dollars to this particular conflict. But if the Europeans want to step up and actually buy the weapons from American producers, we're OK with that, but we're not going to fund it ourselves anymore. Rajan Menon: Vance is probably the single most articulate and insistent advocate of that position, which has a certain amount of purchase, by the way, in Trump's MAGA movement. So the cost to Trump politically of walking away from war isn't very great. However, if the summit collapses and Russia overruns significant parts of Ukraine and the Ukrainians have their back to the wall, it will certainly come across as if Trump has been outsmarted by Putin. And I don't think he would like to be in that position. So he's got some pressure on him as well. The person who's now really in control of the situation, leaving aside the state of the Russian economy and so on, is Putin. No matter what happens, he can make it work to his advantage, no matter what happens at the summit, that is. Sam Hawley: Well, Donald Trump, Rajan, says he wants this meeting to feel out the Russian leader so he can know whether a deal could actually be done. Rajan Menon: This reminds me of George W. Bush, who said he looked into Putin's eyes and could see the man's soul. I mean, Putin can show a lot of different faces to different people. He also said, by the way, Trump, that, well, I'm going to sit in the room with Putin and in the first two minutes, I'll know whether a deal is possible or not. Donald Trump, US President: So this is really a feel out meeting a little bit. And at the end of that meeting, probably in the first two minutes, I'll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made. Reporter: How will you know that? Donald Trump, US President: Because that's what I do. I make deals. Rajan Menon: And now anyone can make a deal. The question is, you know, at what cost and to whom? Sam Hawley: And even the location of this meeting, Rajan, in Alaska, that favours Putin, right? Even if Trump is a bit confused about which country it's actually in. Donald Trump, US President: And it's embarrassing for me to be up here. You know, I'm going to see Putin. I'm going to Russia. Sam Hawley: That's good for him. Rajan Menon: Absolutely. You know, there is a strain of thinking in Russia that harks back to the fact that Alaska was once part of Russia and has indelible cultural ties with Russia and so on. So, yes, there is that. I don't know what they would call it, irony or whatever, but the choice is very interesting. But to cut to the chase, you know, I don't expect any earth shattering things to happen at the summit, because there is no way in God's green earth that Zelenskyy is going to agree to some scheme that Putin and Trump come up with that involves significant land concessions by Ukraine in return for nothing else. He will just flatly refuse and the Europeans have his back. Now, that said, you know, the United States is a big player in all this, but the summit itself is not going to change the trajectory of the war, which I suspect will be decided ultimately on the battlefield. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, European leaders are pretty concerned about this, aren't they, about this summit, even though Trump says he has a great relationship with all of them. Donald Trump, US President: My relationship with the European leaders, as you saw, is extremely good. Like, it's perfect. It's beautiful. Wait, wait, wait. Sam Hawley: But, you know, this is a worry for Europe, isn't it? Rajan Menon: Yes, it is. And that's another respect in which Trump can win because by siding with Zelenskyy, the Europeans have put themselves in a position where they've not chosen sides in effect. And as Putin sees this, that's yet another fissure occurring in the Western alliance, which he would be very pleased to see develop even further. I mean, one can like or dislike Vladimir Putin, but he is in his own fashion a strategic thinker. And in this game, there's no question that he has far more knowledge and expertise and experience than Donald Trump does. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, Rajan, ahead of this summit, do you really think that Putin is ready to end this war in any way? It has taken a huge toll on Russia. I mean, it's more than three years now, right? Rajan Menon: No question. But, you know, all indications are that despite supposedly a million casualties and 60,000 of them dead people, this has now been verified pretty extensively. He doesn't mind the loss and he doesn't mind the economic cost because he is riding a tiger. He began this war saying it was in the vital nationalist interests of Russia. He said, my war objectives are Ukrainian neutrality and the conquest of four Ukrainian provinces that are rightfully Russia's. And he has not wavered from that. So this is the question that comes to mind when we talk about land swaps. As far as I know, Putin has not said anything other than he wants all provinces. Now, there's no way that Zelenskyy is going to sign off on that kind of a deal where in order to end the war, he surrenders four provinces. I mean, it doesn't take a genius to end the war. You could go to Putin and say, here, write on a piece of paper what you want and I'll try to force Zelenskyy to agree to the terms. But that's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about a negotiation and Zelenskyy very much has got a domestic political constituency to answer to. Plus, he's a Ukrainian nationalist and leader. And I think that he is not going to sign any kind of deal that these two people in Moscow and Washington come up with. So that's why I'm sceptical about the summit creating something extraordinarily new. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, Rajan, what should we expect ultimately from these talks then? Is this just about the United States washing its hands of this war? Rajan Menon: If it wanted to do that, it could easily do it. In a sense, I don't agree with it necessarily, but J.D. Vance's position has a certain coherence. He says, look, there's essentially an ocean between us and Ukraine. Ukraine is far away. Europe, on the other hand, has a direct stake in Ukraine. Europe is wealthy and powerful. The Europeans should lead it. That's a position that one has to take seriously. If that were all, it would be one thing. But my worry is that Trump wants to move away from the war, but also in the summit, put Zelenskyy in a position where he has to say no and then face Trump's wrath for being the person who wrecked the possibility of a deal. Because what Trump wants at the end of the day, I think, is a settlement, no matter how it comes about, which yields him a Nobel Prize. Sam Hawley: Rajan Menon is a professor emeritus of international relations at the City College of New York. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.
ABC News
29-05-2025
- General
- ABC News
Why Trump can't get 'crazy' Putin to end the war
Sam Hawley: He spent a long time praising him, but now Donald Trump's view of Vladimir Putin is shifting. The US president describes his once so-called friend as 'crazy' and 'playing with fire'. As Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine including the largest bombardment of Kyiv since the start of the war. Today, international relations expert Rajan Menon on why Putin will only ever humour Trump, but never do as he asks and end the war. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal Land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Sam Hawley: Rajan, not so long ago, Donald Trump was full of praise for his friend Vladimir Putin. He said he was savvy, a genius, among other things. Rajan Menon: We have to begin with his boast that he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Sam Hawley: Yes. Donald Trump, US President: Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled. It will be settled quickly. Rajan Menon: And part of the undertow of that was that he had a connection with Putin that nobody else had. Donald Trump, US President: But they asked me, is Putin smart? Yes, Putin was smart. Donald Trump, US President: And I said, this is genius. Here's a guy who's very savvy. I know him very well. Donald Trump, US President: I've known him for a long time now. And I think he will... I don't believe he's going to violate his word. I don't think he'll be back. When we make a deal, I think the deal's going to hold. Rajan Menon: He prides himself on having a personal rapport with Putin that nobody else has. And I think, believes sincerely, that if he and Putin just get into the room, Putin's regard for him will be such that Donald Trump will come away with a deal. Now, this has never been defined in terms of what the deal would be. But yes, I think he does. He also, I think, has an extreme reluctance. And so we've seen in recent days an exception to this generalisation to criticise Putin. Sam Hawley: But, Rajan, things are certainly changing when it comes to Trump's gushing language. So let's just start last week when Donald Trump held a two-hour phone call with Vladimir Putin. Just tell me what happened after that. Rajan Menon: So he held a phone call, and it wasn't clear really what had happened. The Russians presented it as not a big deal. The White House made it seem like a much bigger event. Donald Trump, US President: We just spent two and a half hours talking to Vladimir Putin, and I think some progress has been made. Rajan Menon: I don't think that Putin gave him any kind of commitment. However, I think Putin is smart enough to know that he has to, at some level, humour Trump. And so if you were to ask me who understands who better, there's no question that Putin understands Trump's psychology better than the reverse. Sam Hawley: So after that phone call, Donald Trump's view, it seemed, was that it was an important step, this conversation, towards a ceasefire. And he believed, he said, that Putin wanted to stop the war. But then, of course, Putin proves that's certainly not the case by launching the most deadly strike on the capital, Kyiv, since the start of the conflict. Rajan Menon: Right. So as I may have told you before, Sam, I've been to wartime Ukraine four times, and I've seen what it's like to be in that situation. But I've heard from friends that what they've experienced in the last four or five days just defies description. Is far worse than anything that I encountered there. News report: Kyiv under attack. One of the biggest wave of strikes in the capital in three years. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President: Unfortunately, people were injured. Residential buildings and a shopping mall were damaged. Russia fills each day with horror and murder. Sam Hawley: And then this is when Donald Trump's language really starts to change, because he responds to this attack saying that Putin has gone absolutely crazy. Donald Trump, US President:: I'll give you an update. I'm not happy with what Putin's doing. He's killing a lot of people, and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time, always gotten along with him, but he's sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don't like it at all. Sam Hawley: And he threatens sanctions. Rajan Menon: Correct. But today he said, well, I'm going to give him two weeks to show that he's really serious about making peace. Reporter: Do you still believe that Putin actually wants to end the war? Donald Trump, US President: I can't tell you that, but I'll let you know in about two weeks. Within two weeks, we're going to find out very soon. We're going to find out whether or not he's tapping us along or not. And if he is, we'll respond a little bit differently. Rajan Menon: And then he was asked, well, Mr President, what is preventing you from imposing sanctions? And Trump said the following, well, I don't want to impose sanctions now because it will stand in the way of a deal. But there's no deal to be had. Donald Trump, US President: Only the fact that if I think I'm close to getting a deal, I don't want to screw it up by doing that. Let me tell you, I'm a lot tougher than the people you're talking about, but you have to know when to use that. Sam Hawley: And the language really matters, doesn't it, Rajan, because Donald Trump, he posted on Truth Social, which is his own social media platform, and said that Putin is playing with fire. And Russia responds to this, doesn't it? Rajan Menon: So the response was from Dmitry Medvedev, who is the chairman of the National Security Council. And he said, oh, Trump is saying bad things will happen. I can only think of one really bad thing that's going to happen, and Trump should be aware of this. That is World War III. So he fired back in the same, gave back in the same currency, as it were. The problem is that if you say, I will levy sanctions, this could bring about the collapse of Russia, I'll do this and I'll do that, and you don't follow through, somebody like Putin interprets that, as any reasonable person would, that this person doesn't really mean what he says, and I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing. Sam Hawley: Well, Rajan, descending into discussion of World War III, I would think it's pretty concerning. Russia has now proposed a second round of direct talks with Ukraine to discuss a potential peace settlement in Istanbul on June 2nd. But, I mean, neither Putin or Zelenskyy ended up attending the first round of talks. So what are you making of that? Rajan Menon: Well, but see, this is another example of providing something that looks like a meaningful gesture. Because the idea is that now Trump is in the position where he can tell the Republican Congress, those in his own party who are saying, we have to have sanctions, that, look, I've just gotten this message from Putin, he's now made this important concession, you know, what I said got his attention. He's now saying there should be a second round. But the question is, what will happen in the second round? The second round will sort of give, enable Trump to convince a lot of Americans that something significant is happening. Meanwhile, it gives Putin ample space to continue the war, because he's never said, and while these negotiations are going on, as a good faith gesture, I'll accept a ceasefire. That's not part of the deal. We can all agree that Putin wants to end the war, but that's not the issue, right? The question is on what terms. So his position all along, and one has to give him credit, at least for being honest, is, I have a claim to four Ukrainian provinces, now mind you, he only controls one of them fully, which is Luhansk. He doesn't control the other three, maybe about 60% or so. He wants that. He wants a Ukraine that is out of NATO for good and guaranteed. He wants limitations on Ukraine's soldiers and force structure, notwithstanding the fact that Ukraine poses no threat to Russia. So if you give him all that, of course he'll sign on the dotted line. There's no question that he will end the war. The question is, what is the asking price? Sam Hawley: And even if Trump does go beyond the threats on social media and he does impose, say, some more sanctions, will that make any difference at all to Vladimir Putin? Rajan Menon: I don't think so, because I think that Putin owns this war. Many people in the Russian national security hierarchy establishment thought this was a bad idea. This was Putin's war. And he cannot easily come back to Russia after the casualties they've suffered, after the economic burdens of the war, with something less or substantially less than his goal. So that's one reason. The other reason, I think, is that he believes that Trump is liable at some point to throw up his hands in exasperation and say, as he's done recently, this is not our war. It's up to the Europeans and walk away. And if American military aid is cut, that completely tilts the battlefield in Putin's favour. So I think that's his calculation. So there is no indication that I've seen that Putin wants to stop the war until he's achieved his objectives by conquering territory, or, and this is not going to happen, the Ukrainians finally say, okay, we've suffered so much that we're gonna give you everything that you want. I've never met any Ukrainian in the time that I've been there, including soldiers on the front, who've said that they're going to agree to Putin's terms. Sam Hawley: All right, well, Rajan, given Donald Trump has clearly failed to convince Vladimir Putin to halt the fighting, how is Ukraine placed right now in terms of international support? The US is, of course, providing weapons again. Rajan Menon: Yeah, so Trump has not approved a further tranche that is post-Biden, right? There's no indication that that is going to happen anytime soon that I know of. The Europeans cannot compensate for the American departure were it to happen,they don't have the wherewithal to fill the gap. That being said, I think the, Trump has concentrated minds in Europe and I think that certain important things are happening. So for example, the other day, Chancellor Merz, the newly elected Chancellor of Germany said, along with other European leaders, that we have now lifted our restrictions. Ukraine can use the weapons that we give it for deep strikes into Russia, that's a big step. Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor: From my point of view, it's necessary because someone who can only repel an attack on their own territory can't adequately defend themselves. Only someone who's also able to attack military bases on the aggressor's territory can defend themselves. Rajan Menon: The second thing is that the Europeans combined had promised to deliver Ukraine something like two million artillery shells, and they have delivered about two thirds as much. Germany, a country that's not known for bold steps, has plans to move 5,000 troops into Lithuania. Defence spending is increasing. So there's a kind of urgency in Europe. There's always a problem because Europe is a collection of countries and there's a collective action problem. Can they agree on something? But so far, they seem to take things seriously. I mean, here's the rub, right? Trump is right when he says, this is not America's war. We have a big, beautiful, he loves that phrase, ocean between us and Ukraine. That is true. The Europeans, I think, understand that a Ukraine that is subordinated to Russia will have very significant consequences for them. Sam Hawley: All right, well, Rajan, just tell me, how is the war actually looking? We know Russia has made advances. Is there a point where this could seriously shift in Putin's favour? Rajan Menon: Yes. So let's assume a scenario in which Trump decides, well, I've given it my all. I've tried to, as it were, seduce Putin by flattering him. I've tried threatening him. None of this has worked and this is essentially not a big deal for me. And he leaves, that would be a very serious blow. And the Russian army has taken enormous casualties. They've lost an incredible amount of weaponry against a side that is manifestly weaker. But slowly, in mile by mile, little by little, they are inching forward. They have just a huge amount of superiority in sheer numbers. So yes, firepower is very important. Financial support is important. Support for Ukraine's military industry, which is really kind of coming into its own, especially in the area of drones, it's important. So to summarise it, Western support is absolutely crucial. Sam Hawley: And what percentage do you give the chance of a ceasefire at this point? Rajan Menon: I would say, if you ask me, and I'm not a betting man, but if you were to ask me, what's your best sense? I would say, I would be extraordinarily surprised if the war were to end by the end of the year. I could easily see it going into next February 24th, that is 2026, at which point the Russian army would have fought the Ukrainians for almost as long as it fought Nazi Germany. This is not what Putin planned on when he began the war on February 24th, 2022. Sam Hawley: Rajan Menon is a Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the City College of New York and a Senior Research Fellow at Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Adair Sheppard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.
