Latest news with #GeminiSouth
Forbes
12-04-2025
- Science
- Forbes
‘Earth Crosser' Asteroid May Now Strike The Moon, Scientists Say
An artist's illustration of 2024 YR4 Asteroid 2024 YR4, until recently thought to have a chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, could now be headed for the moon instead, according to new data. After new observations, 2024 YR4 is thought to have a diameter of about 98–213 feet (30–65 meters). The James Webb Space Telescope studied it in March and found it to be about 197 feet (60 meters). That's about the same width as a football field. The stony asteroid — first discovered on December 27, 2024, when it was passing just 1.5 million miles (2.5 million kilometers) — is one of the largest objects in recent history that could impact the moon, according to a paper accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. A lunar impact would be a book for scientists, who know little about the relationship between the size of an asteroid and the size of its resulting impact crater — despite the moon being covered in craters. 'If it does, it will give scientists a rare chance to study how the size of an asteroid relates to the size of the crater it creates — something we haven't been able to measure directly before," said Bryce Bolin, the lead author. For now, there's a roughly 2% chance YR4 could collide with the moon. An artist's illustration of 2024 YR4 in relation to Earth. Data from the Gemini South Observatory in Chile and the Keck Observatory in Arizona revealed that the asteroid rapidly rotates backward and may be shaped like a hockey puck. 'This find was rather unexpected since most asteroids are thought to be shaped like potatoes or toy tops rather than flat disks,' said Bolin. '2024 YR4 is a solid rock, likely chipped off from a larger rubble-pile asteroid in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter." That 2024 YR4 appears to come from the main asteroid belt is a surprise. 'This region was not previously known to produce asteroids on Earth-crossing paths,' said Bolin. It's thought that gravitational interactions with Jupiter have forced it into the vicinity of Earth. This composite image of asteroid 2024 YR4 was captured with the Gemini South telescope in Chile. 2024 YR4 came to prominence in late January 2025 when the International Asteroid Warning Network placed the asteroid on its watch list after calculations of its orbit suggested it had over a 1% probability of hitting Earth in 2032. However, more calculations showed that it had dropped below 1% by late February. At the end of February, NASA announced that the chances of 2024 YR4 striking Earth during a close pass in 2032 were near zero. 'Studying this asteroid was vitally important in understanding the population of Earth crossers that have the potential to be Earth impactors and are poorly understood," said Bolin. This is a still from an animation showing asteroid 2024 YR4 as it passes by Earth and heads toward ... More its potential impact with the Moon. The news about 2024 YR4 comes as astronomers prepare for a very close pass of a much larger asteroid, 99942 Apophis, in exactly four years. The 1,100-foot (340-meter) wide asteroid will get to within 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) of Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, creating a once-in-a-thousands-year opportunity for science. It will be so close that it will be seen eyed by observers across Western Europe and Western Africa. When Apophis was discovered in 2004, scientists calculated it might strike Earth in 2029, 2036 or 2068 — hence its "God of Chaos" nickname. NASA and the European Space Agency will send spacecraft to orbit Apophis before, during and after its close pass, just in case its trajectory changes and it becomes Earth-bound. Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
That 'city-killer' asteroid has surprised scientists yet again with its 'unusual' shape, and it could smash straight into the moon
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Scientists have revealed the unusual shape of a large asteroid with the potential to smack into the moon in the year 2032, according to new research. Asteroid 2024 YR4 sparked a flurry of interest earlier this year after NASA determined there was a chance it could hit Earth. The risk of an Earth impact has since dropped to zero, but there's still a slim chance 2024 YR4 could hit the moon in 2032 — 3.8% likelihood as of early April. A team of astronomers recently studied the asteroid in more detail using the Gemini South telescope in Chile. The researchers found that 2024 YR4 likely came from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter and has an unusually flat, disk-like shape, similar to a hockey puck, according to a statement released by the National Science Foundation's National Optical-Infrared Astronomy Research Laboratory (NOIRLab). "This find was rather unexpected since most asteroids are thought to be shaped like potatoes or toy tops rather than flat disks," study lead author Bryce Bolin, a research Scientist at Eureka Scientific, a California-based astrophysics and astronomy research corporation, said in the statement. The researchers posted their findings to the preprint database arXiv, and will soon publish them in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. Related: 'Just the tip of the iceberg': Why risky asteroids like 2024 YR4 will pester Earth for decades to come Astronomers discovered the asteroid 2024 YR4 in December 2024, hence the "2024" in its name. In February, the likelihood of 2024 YRY hitting Earth in 2032 rose to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, which was the highest impact probability NASA had ever recorded for a space object of 2024 YR4's size or larger. However, astronomers always expected the threat level to drop once they learned more about 2024 YRY's trajectory. Within days, the likelihood plummeted to effectively zero, and has a 0.00078% chance of hitting Earth in 2032 at the time of writing. However, there remains a risk for the moon — not that the asteroid would significantly damage the moon even if it does hit. For the new study, researchers captured images of the space rock at different wavelengths of light. The team used 2024 YRY's pattern of light output over time, or lightcurve, to study the asteroid's shape, composition and orbital characteristics, according to the statement. From the rock's reflective pattern, the researchers concluded that 2024 YR4 is likely an S-type asteroid, which means it is rich in silicates — a class of minerals that includes quartz. The team also determined that the asteroid is rotating very fast, about once every 20 minutes, and estimated its size to be 98 to 213 feet (30 to 65 meters) wide, according to the study. RELATED STORIES —Watch potential 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 as it hurtles through space —Enormous, mountain-size asteroid will be visible from Earth this weekend in rare 'once in a decade' event —Potentially hazardous asteroids: How many dangerous space rocks lurk near Earth — and can we stop them? Researchers have been trying to accurately calculate the size of 2024 YR4 since its discovery, and this latest approximation is similar to previous estimates. Recent data from the James Webb Space Telescope suggested it could be slightly larger, 174 to 220 feet (53 to 67 meters), Live Science previously reported. 2024 YR4 is one of the largest objects in recent history with the potential to strike the moon, according to the statement. Back when there was a rising likelihood of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth, it was dubbed a potential "city killer" because it was large enough to wipe out a major city. While unlikely, a lunar impact would provide researchers with an unprecedented opportunity to study how the size of an asteroid relates to the size of the crater it creates, according to the statement.
Forbes
09-04-2025
- Science
- Forbes
Moon-Threatening Asteroid Has Weird Shape, Scientists Say
Asteroid 2024 YR4's star has faded when it comes to the general public, but scientists are pumped to be learning more about it. The space rock reached celebrity status earlier this year when initial data showed it had a small chance of striking Earth in 2032. Further observations ruled out the scary scenario—but the moon is still in play. Now we know more about the famous asteroid. Scientists teamed up to study the asteroid and discovered some surprising information about its possible origin and shape. 'Studying this asteroid was vitally important in understanding the population of Earth crossers that have the potential to be Earth impactors and are poorly understood,' said astronomer Bryce Bolin of Eureka Scientific in a statement on April 8. Bolin is the lead author of a paper on the asteroid set to be published in 'The Astrophysical Journal Letters.' Bolin and his colleagues used the Gemini South telescope in Chile to image the asteroid. 'Detailed analysis of the asteroid's lightcurve (pattern of light output in time) allowed the team to determine its composition, orbital characteristics and 3D shape,' the United States National Science Foundation National Optical-Infrared Astronomy Research Laboratory said. The asteroid likely came from the solar system's main asteroid belt, a region between Mars and Jupiter. It's quite the hot hangout for asteroids, with NASA estimating it contains between 1.1 and 1.9 million asteroids larger than 0.6 miles in diameter—and many more smaller ones. 'We are a bit surprised about its origin in the central main asteroid belt, which is a location in the asteroid belt that we did not think many Earth-crossing asteroids could originate from,' said Bolin. The asteroid has a fast rotation of only about 20 minutes. The data shows YR4 has a shape reminiscent of a hockey puck. That qualifies as another surprise. 'This find was rather unexpected since most asteroids are thought to be shaped like potatoes or toy tops rather than flat disks,' Bolin said. The W. M. Keck Observatory in Hawaii also got in on the asteroid fun and contributed data to the team's paper. Keck's ability to see in infrared helped the researchers study the asteroid's composition. It's likely made of solid rock. Larger asteroids are often called 'rubble piles' since they're conglomerates of rock fragments. Asteroid YR4 may have once been a boulder on one of those larger asteroids. Whether an asteroid is solid or a rubble pile makes a difference when it comes to planetary defense. That's crucial information that could help with planning a mission like NASA's DART test. DART involved crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to alter its orbit. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted in December. There had been some uncertainty about the asteroid's size, but NASA's James Webb Space Telescope turned its powerful instruments on the rock and found it measured in at about 200 feet wide, roughly the size of a 15-story building. That's within the initial estimates of between 130 and 300 feet wide. At one point, early observations suggested 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth. As more data came in, researchers revised that down to near zero. However, the asteroid now has a 3.8% chance of impacting the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. Don't worry about the moon, though. 'In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the moon's orbit,' NASA said in a statement on April 2. If YR4 does smack into the moon, it will be a thrilling time for astronomers. It would 'provide an unprecedented opportunity to study the relationship between the size of an asteroid and the size of its resulting impact crater—a previously unknown quantity,' NOIRLab said. Researchers aren't done with YR4 yet. Webb is set to check it out again in late April or early May, even as the asteroid becomes too far away and too faint for ground-based telescopes to make observations. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a big mystery. Its composition, size, shape and origin are better understood. We can also breathe a sigh of relief that it won't be barreling into our planet in 2032. The moon, however, may need to brace for impact. We'll know even more as scientists continue to study the space rock.
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
'City Killer' Asteroid's Origin Traced to an Unexpected Part of The Solar System
When asteroid 2024 YR4 first revealed itself to humans on 27 December 2024, it seemed to have just shown up out of nowhere. An entire asteroid doesn't just materialize out of nothing, though, and now astronomers have determined what 2024 YR4 is made of, what it looks like, and the unexpected place in the Solar System that it came from. 2024 YR4 hails from the middle of the main asteroid belt that hangs out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter – and it was pushed towards Earth by a gravitational interaction with Jupiter, which usually protects the inner Solar System from flying rocks. "We are a bit surprised about its origin in the central main asteroid belt, which is a location in the asteroid belt that we did not think many Earth-crossing asteroids could originate from," says astronomer Bryce Bolin of Eureka Scientific in the US. 2024 YR4 first captured the world's attention by raising the alarm of potential impact. Although it posed no danger during the Earth flyby on which it was discovered, initial observations suggested that it was on a trajectory that could bring it within striking range of Earth on its next go-around in 2032. The danger has since been downgraded to practically nothing (although the Moon might still be in the firing line, with a few percent chance of impact). 2024 YR4 is known as a 'city killer' asteroid, not because it will hit Earth, but because if it did, the devastation it could wreak would be pretty huge. When potentially hazardous asteroids show up, it's important for planetary defense to study them. How big they are, how they move through space, and what they're made of can all play a role in impact, and where they come from tells us if we should watch that corner of the Solar System for other dangers. So the discovery of 2024 YR4, and the initial alarms it raised, set scientists to work. Bolin and his colleagues used the W.M. Keck and Gemini South telescopes to obtain detailed observations of the space rock, to put together the most accurate description of its characteristics. "YR4 spins once every 20 minutes, rotates in a retrograde direction, has a flattened, irregular shape, and is the density of solid rock," Bolin says. "The shape of the asteroid provides us with clues as to how it formed, and what its structural integrity is. Knowing these properties is crucial for determining how much effort or what kind of technique needs to be used to deflect the asteroid if it is deemed a threat." Asteroids come in several different flavors. The most common are the carbonaceous asteroids, which are made up of a mix of different minerals, and can (but don't always) have a pretty loosey-goosey 'rubble pile' composition, like Bennu, Ryugu, and Dimorphos, famously the subject of an asteroid redirection test mission. S-type asteroids are much denser, usually a single chunk of siliceous rock. The researchers believe that this is the composition of 2024 YR4, information that would inform strategies for impact mitigation. It also measures between 30 and 65 meters (98–213 feet) across, and has a flattened shape somewhat like a hockey puck. Since most asteroids are thought to have shapes like potatoes or spinning tops, this is a bit surprising, and may help astronomers learn how 2024 YR4 formed. This information, the team says, will help scientists assess the properties of other potentially hazardous asteroids. It will also help refine rapid-response observation techniques for asteroids that, like 2024 YR4, just appear as though out of nowhere. And the researchers are very excited to see what the rock will do in the future. "It's one of the largest objects in recent history that could hit the Moon," Bolin says. "If it does, it would give scientists a rare chance to study how the size of an asteroid relates to the size of the crater it creates – something we haven't been able to measure directly before." The research will appear in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, and is available on arXiv. ESA Report Says There's Too Much Junk in Earth Orbit Trunk Terraforming Mars Isn't Impossible. New Study Describes First Step. Fermenting Miso in Space Gives It a Unique Flavor, Study Finds
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
We now know the shape of notorious asteroid 2024 YR4 that dominated headlines recently — it's probably 'suburban,' too
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. The asteroid 2024 YR4 — the one that caused a stir earlier this year due to its potential collision course with Earth — has a surprising tale to tell. A new study reports that this space rock likely hails from the central region of the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter — a cosmic "suburb" scientists don't typically associate with asteroids that cross paths with our planet. Shortly after its discovery late last year, astronomers calculated that 2024 YR4 had a 1.3% chance (1-in-83) of impacting Earth in December of 2032. This alarming probability briefly landed the asteroid atop impact risk lists maintained by NASA and the European Space Agency, triggering planetary defense discussions and prompting intensive follow-up observations to refine the object's trajectory. Many experts emphasized, however, that the risk would likely go down by quite a bit once better observations could be made. Sure enough, by late February, the threat to Earth had dropped to near zero. By early April, pictures of the asteroid captured by the James Webb Space Telescope confirmed the building-sized rock would safely fly past Earth in 2032. Of note, the asteroid, approximately 60 meters in diameter — roughly the width of a football field — still has a 2% chance of striking the moon. Nevertheless, new observations of 2024 YR4 from both the Gemini South telescope in Chile and the Keck Observatory in Hawaii provide compelling evidence that the space rock indeed journeyed from this unlikely region. The asteroid's retrograde spin — in that it rotates on its axis in the opposite direction to its orbit around the sun — offers a key clue to its origin. According to the new study, the Yarkovsky effect, a subtle force arising from the asteroid's uneven sunlight absorption and re-emission, can cause the space rock to drift inward over long periods, eventually leading to a near-Earth orbit. "We are a bit surprised about its origin in the central main asteroid belt, which is a location in the asteroid belt that we did not think many Earth-crossing asteroids could originate from," Bolin said in the statement. The team's analysis indicates that gravitational interactions with Jupiter likely played a role in nudging the asteroid into the Earth-crossing orbit. The new observations also revealed that the asteroid has a remarkably rapid rotation period of just 20 minutes. This, coupled with a detailed analysis of the asteroid's light curve — the subtle variations in its brightness over time — enabled Bolin and his team to accurately determine not only the asteroid's composition and orbital characteristics but also its distinctly flattened, hockey-puck-like shape. "This find was rather unexpected since most asteroids are thought to be shaped like potatoes or toy tops rather than flat disks," Bolin said in another statement. Asteroids larger than about 328 feet (100 meters) are often "rubble piles" — collections of fragments loosely bound together after a larger parent asteroid broke apart. These rubble piles can have large boulders, sometimes up to 197 feet (60 meters) in size, on their surfaces. Given that 2024 YR4 falls within the boulder size-range, scientists speculate it may have once been a boulder perched on a larger rubble-pile asteroid, according to the new study. "The data from our study will be used to assess the physical properties and shapes of potentially impacting asteroids, providing a great test case on the kind of rapid response observations that are necessary to characterize a potential threat like this object," Bolin said in the statement. These findings are described in a preprint paper to be published in the journal The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
