Latest news with #GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
NDTV
19-05-2025
- Science
- NDTV
Why The US Coast Faces Flood Threat? Damning Study Sounds The Alarm
The northeast coast of the US is witnessing more flooding events in recent years owing to the slowdown of a major current in the Atlantic Ocean that is boosting the sea level, a new study has shown. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) influences climate, weather and sea levels around the planet by transporting heat, salt and freshwater through the ocean, but scientists are worried that it is weakening. The study published last week in the American Association for the Advancement of Science used data from tide gauges (an instrument used to monitor sea level change) and complex ocean models to calculate how the AMOC has affected flooding in the region. "The US Northeast Coast (USNEC) has been identified as a hotspot for accelerated sea level rise over the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean in the most recent decades," the study highlighted. The findings showed that between 2005 and 2022, up to 50 per cent of flooding events along the northeastern coast were driven by a weaker AMOC. With the climate is continuously changing and the atmosphere warming, scientists fear that fresh water from melting polar ice sheets could significantly disrupt or collapse the AMOC, leading to devastating consequences. "If the AMOC collapsed, this would dramatically increase the flood frequency along the US coast, even in the absence of strong storms," Liping Zhang at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in New Jersey told New Scientist. "Even partial weakening [of the current] can already have substantial impacts." This is not the first instance when scientists have warned about the collapse of AMOC. A study published last year claimed that the impending disaster, accelerated by human-induced climate change, could occur as early as the late 2030s. While the new study paints a picture of gloom, there is a silver lining. Since natural cycles in the AMOC's strength are largely predictable, scientists could forecast which years will see lots of flooding, up to three in advance. This foresight could help authorities make decisions about emergency preparedness and related infrastructure in time.
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
A crucial system of ocean currents is slowing. It's already supercharging sea level rise in the US.
Flooding on the US Northeast coast has risen significantly as a critical network of Atlantic Ocean currents weakens, according to a new study — an alarming glimpse into the future as some scientists warn the current system could be just decades from collapse. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, known as the AMOC, works like a vast conveyor belt, transporting heat, salt and freshwater through the ocean and influencing climate, weather and sea levels around the planet. Coastal flooding is caused by a cluster of factors, chief among them climate change-driven sea level rise, but the AMOC also plays a critical role in the Northeast, according to the study published Friday in the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Scientists used data from tide gauges — instruments which monitor sea level change — combined with complex ocean models to calculate how the AMOC has affected flooding in the region over the past decades. They found between 2005 and 2022, up to 50% of flooding events along the northeastern coast were driven by a weaker AMOC. Drilling down, that means AMOC-driven sea level rise contributed to up to eight flood days a year over this period. The models used by the scientists also give a glimpse into the future, allowing them to forecast coastal flooding frequency in the Northeast up to three years in advance, according to the study. The idea that the AMOC is influencing sea level rise in this region is not new, but this study is the first to find it's substantially affecting flood frequency, said Liping Zhang, a study author and project scientist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There are two main reasons why the AMOC affects sea level rise, said David Thornally, professor of ocean and climate science at University College London, who was not involved in the research. A strong AMOC is typically associated with dense deep water that flows along the western boundary of the North Atlantic. When the AMOC weakens, water becomes less dense, literally taking up more space and fueling sea level rise. A weaker AMOC also affects the flow of the Gulf Stream, causing water to flow back onto the coastal shelf and increasing sea level rise at the coast. Rising seas are a huge and urgent issue for society as the climate warms, making it vital to better understand how it's being affected, Zhang told CNN. Coastal flooding can 'reshape the coastal environment… (and) poses threats to both lives and infrastructure in coastal regions,' she said. The findings will be very useful for helping society better predict and plan for costly and devastating flooding events, UCL's Thornally told CNN. 'A study like this is a good way to demonstrate the day-to-day impacts of changes AMOC, rather than invoking dramatic scenes from Hollywood disaster movies which are exaggerated and thus easily dismissed,' he told CNN, referring to the movie The Day After Tomorrow, which depicts the world plunging into a deep freeze after the AMOC collapses. As the research relies on climate models, the results will depend on how well these represent the physics of the real world, he cautioned. 'The high resolution means it probably does a good job — and it can mimic observed sea-level patterns — but it won't be perfect,' he said, especially as this is a complex area of the ocean where different currents meet. Gerard McCarthy, an oceanographer at Maynooth University in Ireland, also not involved in the research, said the study is significant because it shows 'how AMOC can help predict sea level extremes along this coast.' A slew of recent research has pointed to signs the AMOC could be on course to significantly weaken over the next decades as climate change warms oceans and melts ice, disrupting its delicate balance of heat and salinity. This would have catastrophic planetary impacts, including on sea level rise. 'The science is still not clear,' McCarthy said, but a collapse would be a 'high-impact event and it is critical that we know what to expect.'
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Opinion - Ignoring science for profit will have deadly consequences for America
Some stains can't be eradicated, no matter how hard you try. Lady Macbeth learned that lesson. It's a lesson we are now learning in America. Eviscerating an agency like USAID, which provides humanitarian assistance to some of the most vulnerable people in the world, is a national stain. A permanent blemish on the soul of a nation. Condemning USAID to 'die' will affect millions who rely on U.S. assistance, in zones of famine, war, drought and catastrophe. Condemning USAID condemns countless people to die. But shame and guilt, and decency and kindness, are apparently foreign to the new administration. Those are woke, antiquated concepts in MAGA world, where only money, power and influence seem to have meaning. What's next after removing the 'ball of worms' at USAID? It involves consigning climate science to the dustbin of history — to a deep, dark memory hole. And why is such industrial-strength ignorance necessary? Because scientific understanding of the climate harms caused by fossil fuel burning is bad for business. Let's say we do send America back to the Dark Ages, before scientists discovered that fossil fuel burning alters global climate. We just pretend it doesn't exist. Pretend planetary warming isn't happening. Pretend we know nothing about the causes of warming. Cut funding for research. Kill information that reveals how the poor and those of color suffer the most severe impacts. Let's Make Ignorance Great Again! We can try to ignore what's happening, but climate change is real. It affects all of us, in every aspect of our lives. Befouling the atmosphere by using it as a convenient 'unpriced sewer' for our carbon pollution has already altered global climate. Human actions are already warming the atmosphere, the land and the oceans, raising sea levels and altering the properties of extreme events. Human-caused climate change is already influencing our health. Where we can live. Our access to fresh water and secure food. Like the demise of USAID, the demise of federally funded climate science will have severe consequences. We will be less aware of the true risks of climate change. We will make poorer decisions on how to adapt and respond. More lives will be put in harm's way. More will die. In 1967, Professor Suki Manabe published a paper in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. The paper was coauthored with Richard Wetherald, a colleague of Manabe's at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton. The research used a simple climate model to predict how atmospheric temperature would respond to large increases in carbon dioxide. Manabe and Wetherald showed that doubling or tripling preindustrial CO2 levels would lead to fundamental changes in the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature. In simple terms, heat would be increasingly trapped in the lowermost layer of Earth's atmosphere — the troposphere. The layer above the troposphere — the stratosphere — would cool. This prediction proved to be right. Satellite temperature measurements have confirmed significant warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere, sustained over decades. No natural causes can produce this distinctive fingerprint. It's our fingerprint: the fingerprint of human-caused fossil fuel burning. It's important to note that Suki Manabe and Dick Wetherald worked at an institution run and funded by NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Many of the satellites used to monitor changes in atmospheric temperature are NOAA satellites. One of the premier computer models now used to study climate change is a NOAA model. Like USAID, NOAA is now a target for death by a thousand cuts. Today, in MAGA world, the research in their seminal 1967 paper might not have been performed. An evidentiary record of human-caused tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling might not exist. 'Woke' NOAA computer models would not make troubling climate projections. Such dire prospects should be of deep concern to every American. We cannot allow climate science to become 'samizdat' — secret, illicit knowledge that may not be spoken of for fear of angering the MAGA president. I don't want the stain of willful ignorance to tarnish America for generations. I want our country to act as leaders in solving a problem for which we bear primary historical responsibility. I want America to be part of a community of nations working toward the common goal of maintaining a stable climate system. We are at Elon Musk's infamous 'fork in the road,' but we're not at the fork that he envisages. The fork we face is the choice between science and ignorance, between climate stability and climate carnage, between democracy and dictatorship. Between bright hope and dark despair. If we do not choose wisely, we will betray the sacred trust of our children and grandchildren. They entrust us, as each new generation does, to make the world a better and safer place. We cannot sell out their climate future for the continued profits of powerful business interests. Ben Santer is a climate scientist and a John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Fellow. He served as convening lead author of chapter eight of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report and was a contributor to all six IPCC scientific assessments. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
24-02-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Ignoring science for profit will have deadly consequences for America
Some stains can't be eradicated, no matter how hard you try. Lady Macbeth learned that lesson. It's a lesson we are now learning in America. Eviscerating an agency like USAID, which provides humanitarian assistance to some of the most vulnerable people in the world, is a national stain. A permanent blemish on the soul of a nation. Condemning USAID to 'die' will affect millions who rely on U.S. assistance, in zones of famine, war, drought and catastrophe. Condemning USAID condemns countless people to die. But shame and guilt, and decency and kindness, are apparently foreign to the new administration. Those are woke, antiquated concepts in MAGA world, where only money, power and influence seem to have meaning. What's next after removing the 'ball of worms' at USAID? It involves consigning climate science to the dustbin of history — to a deep, dark memory hole. And why is such industrial-strength ignorance necessary? Because scientific understanding of the climate harms caused by fossil fuel burning is bad for business. Let's say we do send America back to the Dark Ages, before scientists discovered that fossil fuel burning alters global climate. We just pretend it doesn't exist. Pretend planetary warming isn't happening. Pretend we know nothing about the causes of warming. Cut funding for research. Kill information that reveals how the poor and those of color suffer the most severe impacts. Let's Make Ignorance Great Again! We can try to ignore what's happening, but climate change is real. It affects all of us, in every aspect of our lives. Befouling the atmosphere by using it as a convenient 'unpriced sewer' for our carbon pollution has already altered global climate. Human actions are already warming the atmosphere, the land and the oceans, raising sea levels and altering the properties of extreme events. Human-caused climate change is already influencing our health. Where we can live. Our access to fresh water and secure food. Like the demise of USAID, the demise of federally funded climate science will have severe consequences. We will be less aware of the true risks of climate change. We will make poorer decisions on how to adapt and respond. More lives will be put in harm's way. More will die. In 1967, Professor Suki Manabe published a paper in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. The paper was coauthored with Richard Wetherald, a colleague of Manabe's at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton. The research used a simple climate model to predict how atmospheric temperature would respond to large increases in carbon dioxide. Manabe and Wetherald showed that doubling or tripling preindustrial CO 2 levels would lead to fundamental changes in the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature. In simple terms, heat would be increasingly trapped in the lowermost layer of Earth's atmosphere — the troposphere. The layer above the troposphere — the stratosphere — would cool. This prediction proved to be right. Satellite temperature measurements have confirmed significant warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere, sustained over decades. No natural causes can produce this distinctive fingerprint. It's our fingerprint: the fingerprint of human-caused fossil fuel burning. It's important to note that Suki Manabe and Dick Wetherald worked at an institution run and funded by NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Many of the satellites used to monitor changes in atmospheric temperature are NOAA satellites. One of the premier computer models now used to study climate change is a NOAA model. Like USAID, NOAA is now a target for death by a thousand cuts. Today, in MAGA world, the research in their seminal 1967 paper might not have been performed. An evidentiary record of human-caused tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling might not exist. 'Woke' NOAA computer models would not make troubling climate projections. Such dire prospects should be of deep concern to every American. We cannot allow climate science to become 'samizdat' — secret, illicit knowledge that may not be spoken of for fear of angering the MAGA president. I don't want the stain of willful ignorance to tarnish America for generations. I want our country to act as leaders in solving a problem for which we bear primary historical responsibility. I want America to be part of a community of nations working toward the common goal of maintaining a stable climate system. We are at Elon Musk's infamous 'fork in the road,' but we're not at the fork that he envisages. The fork we face is the choice between science and ignorance, between climate stability and climate carnage, between democracy and dictatorship. Between bright hope and dark despair. If we do not choose wisely, we will betray the sacred trust of our children and grandchildren. They entrust us, as each new generation does, to make the world a better and safer place. We cannot sell out their climate future for the continued profits of powerful business interests. Ben Santer is a climate scientist and a John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Fellow. He served as convening lead author of chapter eight of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report
