Latest news with #GlobalTradeOutlookandStatistics
Time of India
11 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Worse trade outcomes possible if uncertainty spreads globally, warns WTO
New Delhi: Global goods trade posted a strong uptick in early 2025 but weakening export orders suggest that this momentum may not be sustained, the World Trade Organisation ( WTO ) Thursday said in its Goods Trade Barometer . The uptick was driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs. The barometer rose to 103.5 up from 102.8 in March while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9 pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year. The barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Year-on-year growth in the world merchandise trade turned positive the fourth quarter of 2023 and strengthened in 2024 as falling inflation and lower interest rates boosted real incomes and consumption. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like The Top 25 Most Beautiful Women In The World Articles Vally Undo 'Year-on-year trade growth eased in the fourth quarter of 2024 but new trade volume indices set for release in July are expected to show a rebound in Q1,' WTO said. Live Events The Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report of April predicted stable merchandise trade growth of 2.7% in 2025 under a low-tariff baseline scenario, and a decline of 0.2% in an adjusted forecast reflecting higher tariffs and rising trade policy uncertainty . 'Policy shifts since April have nudged the forecast up and down, but worse outcomes are still possible if uncertainty spreads globally,' it said.
Mid East Info
21-04-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
His Excellency Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, Minister of State for Foreign Trade
The UAE continues to benefit from its strategic trade policies. It has expanded its network of trade and investment partners around the world through the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA) program, which has helped the UAE consolidate its position as a vital trading nation in the global economy and a gateway for the flow of trade in goods and services around the world. The Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report issued by the World Trade Organization confirmed the UAE's increased importance in international trade. The country's non-oil foreign trade continues to grow, and its share in the trade of goods and services globally increases. The UAE ranks 11th and 14th globally in goods exports and imports with a value of $603 billion and $539 billion respectively. The UAE also ranks 13th and 21st in exports and imports of services, with a value of US$176 billion and US$106 billion respectively. The UAE's foreign trade of goods and services continued to benefit from the expansion of the country's CEPA Program, which began to be implemented at the end of 2021. Under the program, 27 agreements have been concluded so far with countries and economic blocs of strategic importance to the global economy. Of those, 8 agreements have already entered into force. The program contributed to raising the country's profile as a global trading hub. According to data issued by the World Trade Organization, the UAE has steadily risen in its rankings. The UAE rose 6 places in goods exports between 2021 and 2024. As for goods imports, the UAE rose 4 places between 2021 and 2024. The UAE has also grown in importance in the services trade, rising 2 places in exports between 2021 and 2024. As for digital services trade, in 2024 the UAE ranked 21st with a value of US$52 billion, contributing 1.1% of the world's exports of digital services, compared to US$48 billion in 2023, US$37 billion in 2021 and US$29 billion in 2019. This vital sector of the economy contributes 30% of the UAE's total services exports to the world. The UAE's policy of further openness to the world in trade and investment benefits the national economy, especially the non-oil sectors that make up the knowledge and innovation-based industries of the future. The UAE is committed to free, rules-based international trade as a catalyst for global economic growth and development.
Zawya
21-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report – World Trade Organization 16 April 2025
The UAE continues to benefit from its strategic trade policies. It has expanded its network of trade and investment partners around the world through the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA) program, which has helped the UAE consolidate its position as a vital trading nation in the global economy and a gateway for the flow of trade in goods and services around the world. The Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report issued by the World Trade Organization confirmed the UAE's increased importance in international trade. The country's non-oil foreign trade continues to grow, and its share in the trade of goods and services globally increases. The UAE ranks 11th and 14th globally in goods exports and imports with a value of $603 billion and $539 billion respectively. The UAE also ranks 13th and 21st in exports and imports of services, with a value of US$176 billion and US$106 billion respectively. The UAE's foreign trade of goods and services continued to benefit from the expansion of the country's CEPA Program, which began to be implemented at the end of 2021. Under the program, 27 agreements have been concluded so far with countries and economic blocs of strategic importance to the global economy. Of those, 8 agreements have already entered into force. The program contributed to raising the country's profile as a global trading hub. According to data issued by the World Trade Organization, the UAE has steadily risen in its rankings. The UAE rose 6 places in goods exports between 2021 and 2024. As for goods imports, the UAE rose 4 places between 2021 and 2024. The UAE has also grown in importance in the services trade, rising 2 places in exports between 2021 and 2024. As for digital services trade, in 2024 the UAE ranked 21st with a value of US$52 billion, contributing 1.1% of the world's exports of digital services, compared to US$48 billion in 2023, US$37 billion in 2021 and US$29 billion in 2019. This vital sector of the economy contributes 30% of the UAE's total services exports to the world. The UAE's policy of further openness to the world in trade and investment benefits the national economy, especially the non-oil sectors that make up the knowledge and innovation-based industries of the future. The UAE is committed to free, rules-based international trade as a catalyst for global economic growth and development.
Arabian Business
17-04-2025
- Business
- Arabian Business
Global trade to shrink by 0.2% as Trump tariffs trigger ‘dampening effect,' WTO warns
Global merchandise trade is projected to contract by a notable 0.2 per cent in the coming year as escalating tariffs and growing trade policy uncertainty reshape the world economy, the World Trade Organisation said in a stark reversal of earlier growth forecasts. The WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report warns that the contraction could deepen to 1.5 per cent if trade tensions further escalate, representing a dramatic three-percentage-point downgrade from what would have been expected under a low-tariff scenario. The report specifically cites the recent wave of US tariff measures under President Donald Trump's administration as the primary catalyst for the downturn, with North American trade flows projected to plummet by double digits. 'I am deeply concerned by the uncertainty surrounding trade policy, including the US-China stand-off,' WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in the report. 'The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has temporarily relieved some of the pressure on global trade. However, the enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth.' The figures mark a significant reversal from 2024, when merchandise trade grew by 2.9 per cent, outpacing global GDP growth of 2.8 per cent – the first time since 2017, excluding the post-pandemic rebound, that trade had expanded faster than the broader economy. North America is expected to be hardest hit, with exports projected to collapse by 12.6 per cent and imports by 9.6 per cent in 2025. This regional impact alone is sufficient to drag global trade into negative territory, the report found. WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa highlighted the profound impact of trade policy uncertainty, which extends beyond the direct effects of tariffs themselves. 'Our simulations show that trade policy uncertainty has a significant dampening effect on trade flows, reducing exports and weakening economic activity,' Ossa said. 'Moreover, tariffs are a policy lever with wide-ranging, and often unintended consequences.' Trump's tariff strategy and global response The sharp decline in trade forecasts comes after Trump declared a 'Liberation Day' on March 31, announcing a set of reciprocal tariffs aimed at foreign goods to protect American jobs and industries. The initial proposal included a 25 per cent tariff on automobiles, 20 per cent on pharmaceuticals, and 10 per cent on all imports from most countries. China retaliated almost immediately with a 25 per cent tariff on US goods, prompting further escalation. By April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most of the reciprocal tariffs, lowering the rate to 10 per cent for most countries. However, Chinese imports still face crippling duties exceeding 125 per cent, leading to what the WTO describes as a 'decoupling between China and the United States'. The report projects that US imports from China will fall sharply in sectors such as textiles, apparel, and electrical equipment, creating new export opportunities for other suppliers. Chinese merchandise exports are projected to rise by 4 per cent to 9 per cent across all regions outside North America as trade is redirected. 'In a world of trade tensions, a clear-eyed view of trade-offs is more important than ever,' Ossa noted in the analytical chapter of the report, where the WTO examines various scenarios for how the trade conflict might evolve. Market observers note the recent pattern mirrors the first Trump administration's trade policies. Stocks initially fell on the tariff announcements but rebounded after the April 9 pause, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2 per cent on April 10 as investors hoped for a more selective approach to trade barriers. The EU has expressed serious concerns about the US measures and hinted at possible retaliatory steps, while several nations including South Korea and Brazil are in talks with the US to seek exemptions. Trade diversion and unexpected winners Surprisingly, the WTO found that least-developed countries (LDCs) might benefit from the trade disruption in the short term. Their exports are projected to grow by 4.8 per cent in 2025 as they capture market share from China in sectors like textiles and electronics, particularly in the US market. 'Under the current situation with the pause on US 'reciprocal' tariffs, LDCs may benefit from trade diversion as their export structure is similar to China's, especially in textiles and electronics,' the report states. Global GDP growth is now expected to reach just 2.2 per cent in 2025, 0.6 percentage points below what would have been expected without recent policy shifts. North America faces the largest impact with growth projected to slow by 1.6 percentage points. Services trade, though not directly subject to tariffs, is also expected to be adversely affected. The global volume of commercial services trade is now forecast to grow by 4 per cent in 2025, well below the baseline projection of 5.1 per cent. Declines in goods trade will reduce demand for transport and logistics services, while broader uncertainty will dampen travel and investment-related services. For the first time, the WTO report includes projections for commercial services trade in volume terms, finding that most services growth in 2025 will originate from Europe, where exports are expected to grow by 5 per cent. European growth will continue at 4.4 per cent in 2026. Asian economies' services exports are projected to increase by 4.4 per cent in 2025 and by 5.1 per cent in 2026. The report also includes a detailed analysis of trade policy uncertainty (TPU), measuring it through 'tariff water' – the gap between maximum possible tariffs under WTO rules and actual applied rates. The WTO found that about 40 per cent of the projected GDP impact stems from uncertainty rather than the tariffs themselves, as businesses delay investments and new trade relationships. 'Although the current outlook is challenging, it is worth recalling that the trajectory of world trade will not be determined by any single economy or bilateral relationship,' Ossa wrote in his analysis. 'The fact that 87 per cent of global merchandise trade takes place outside the United States – and that bilateral trade between the United States and China accounts for around 3 per cent – is a reminder of the importance of other trading relationships.' 'In the face of this crisis, WTO members have the unprecedented opportunity to inject dynamism into the organisation, foster a level-playing field, streamline decision-making, and adapt our agreements to better meet today's global realities,' Okonjo-Iweala concluded.
NBC News
16-04-2025
- Business
- NBC News
Global trade outlook has ‘deteriorated sharply' amid Trump tariff uncertainty, WTO warns
The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned on Wednesday that the outlook for global trade has 'deteriorated sharply' in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs regime. 'The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty,' the WTO said in its latest 'Global Trade Outlook and Statistics' report out Wednesday. Based on the tariffs currently in place, and including a 90-day suspension of 'reciprocal tariffs,' the volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, before posting a 'modest' recovery of 2.5% in 2026. The decline is anticipated to be particularly steep in North America, where exports are forecasted to drop by 12.6% this year. The WTO also warned that 'severe downside risks exist,' including the application of 'reciprocal' tariffs and a broader spillover of policy uncertainty, 'which could lead to an even sharper decline of 1.5% in global goods trade,' particularly hurting export-oriented, least-developed countries. The recent tariff disturbances follow a strong year for world trade in 2024, during which merchandise trade grew 2.9% and commercial services trade expanded by 6.8%, the WTO said. The new estimate of a 0.2% decline in world trade for 2025 is nearly three percentage points lower than it would have been under a 'low tariff' baseline scenario, the WTO added, and marks a significant reversal from the start of the year when the trade body's economists expected to see continued trade expansion supported by improving macroeconomic conditions. 'Risks to the forecast include the implementation of the currently suspended reciprocal tariffs by the United States, as well as a broader spillover of trade policy uncertainty beyond U.S.-linked trade relationships,' the WTO said. 'If enacted, reciprocal tariffs would reduce world merchandise trade growth by an additional 0.6 percentage points, posing particular risks for least-developed countries (LDCs), while a spreading of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) would shave off a further 0.8 percentage points. Taken together, the reciprocal tariffs and spreading TPU would lead to a 1.5% decline in world merchandise trade volume in 2025.' Trump stunned trading partners and global markets in early April, when he announced a raft of 'reciprocal' tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries. Beijing was hit the hardest of all, with the U.S. duty on Chinese imports now effectively totaling 145%. China in turn hit back at Washington with retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on U.S. imports. Widespread market turbulence following the tariffs announcement prompted a temporary climbdown by Trump, with the president last week announcing that the new duties on imports from most trading partners would be reduced to 10% for 90 days in order to allow for trade negotiations with Washington's counterparts. The WTO said in its Wednesday report that the impact of recent trade policy changes is likely to vary sharply from region to region. In the adjusted forecast, North America now subtracts 1.7 percentage points from global merchandise trade growth in 2025, turning the overall figure negative. Meanwhile, Asia and Europe continue to contribute positively, but less than in the baseline scenario, with Asia's input halved to 0.6 percentage points. The disruption in U.S.-China trade is expected 'to trigger significant trade diversion,' the WTO added, raising concerns among third markets about increased competition from China. 'Chinese merchandise exports are projected to rise by 4% to 9% across all regions outside North America as trade is redirected. At the same time, U.S. imports from China are expected to fall sharply in sectors such as textiles, apparel and electrical equipment, creating new export opportunities for other suppliers able to fill the gap,' the trade organization remarked, noting that this could open the door for some least-developed countries to increase their exports to the U.S. market.
