Global merchandise trade surges in Q1, slowdown expected: WTO
According to the latest data released by the WTO, the volume of world merchandise trade rose by 3.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, driven largely by a surge in imports in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs in the United States.
However, WTO economists expect the growth momentum to ease in the coming months as fully stocked inventories and increased tariffs begin to weigh on import demand.
In its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released in April, the WTO forecast a 0.2 percent decline in global merchandise trade volume for 2025, warning of serious downside risks stemming from the reintroduction of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" and spillovers from trade policy uncertainty.
Tuesday's data revealed notable regional disparities in trade performance during the first quarter, particularly on the import side. North America recorded the strongest quarter-on-quarter import growth of any region at 13.4 percent, followed by Africa at 5.1 percent, the WTO said.
On the export side, the Middle East led with 6.3 percent quarter-on-quarter growth, followed by Asia at 5.6 percent.
In terms of product categories, trade in office and telecom equipment posted the highest year-on-year growth at 16 percent, followed by chemicals at 12 percent, and clothing at 7 percent. In contrast, trade in automotive products, fuels and mining products, and iron and steel declined.
The WTO also noted signs of a slowdown in import activity in the second quarter. While U.S. imports surged 25 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, growth slowed dramatically to just 1 percent in the first two months of the second quarter.
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