Latest news with #Gundlach
Business Insider
09-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Why Bond King Jeff Gundlach says record-setting gold is poised for another 20% rally
Gold's record-setting rally isn't close to being over, according to "Bond King" Jeff Gundlach. The DoubleLine Capital CEO predicted that the price of the precious metal could climb as high as $4,000 per ounce, a gain of 20% from Friday afternoon's price of around $3,345. Speaking to CNBC this week, Gundlach said tariff-related volatility is fundamentally changing the way traders view the precious metal, pointing to its 25% rally year-to-date. "I think that's telling us that we're in a regime where gold is no longer a speculation for short-term traders, or for survivalists as a long-term hold. I think people are viewing gold as an asset class out of fear of the turmoil that's going on geopolitically, with the tariffs and everything else, and just the amount of debt that exists, that people wonder how we're going to deal with this. So gold is sort of the true monetary asset," Gundlach said. The global market for physically-backed gold ETFs swelled by $11 billion in April to $397 billion, according to data from the World Gold Council. Meanwhile, 58% of global fund managers in a recent Bank of America survey said they believed gold was the safest asset in a full-blown trade war. Gundlach added that he believes the backdrop for other risk assets, like stocks, is challenging at the moment. He doubled down on his forecast that stocks could see a "breakdown" in the near term, potentially taking the S&P 500 as low as 4,500. That would imply a 20% drop from current levels. "I feel like we're in a risk-off market on an intermediate term basis," he said. Other forecasters have issued bullish calls on gold in recent months, citing uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policy. Goldman Sachs lifted its price target for the precious metal last month to $3,700 an ounce, pointing to high levels of policy uncertainty and a potential slowing of the US economy. UBS and Bank of America have also issued $3,500 price targets on gold, implying 4% upside from current levels.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Labor groups mark Workers Memorial Day to highlight workplace deaths
Simulated gravestones are arrayed in front of the Madison Labor Temple on Monday, April 28, 2025, to commemorate Workers Memorial Day. (Photo by Erik Gunn/Wisconsin Examiner) Some 112 Wisconsin workers died on the job in 2023, the AFL-CIO reported Monday as labor unions marked Workers Memorial Day to highlight workplace dangers. 'When a union is there at the workplace, injuries go down and lives are saved,' said Kevin Gundlach, president of the South Central Federation of Labor, representing union workers in Dane County and surrounding counties. Workers Memorial Day serves both to remember those who have lost their lives at work as well as 'fighting for the living' to have a safe workplace, Gundlach told the Wisconsin Examiner. The date, April 28, coincides with the anniversary of the date that the federal Occupational Safety and Health Act took effect 54 years ago. The AFL-CIO's analysis draws on 2023 job fatality, injury and illness data along with workplace safety regulation enforcement data for the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2024. Of the 112 Wisconsin worker deaths in 2023, 15 were from assaults and other violent acts, 37 from transportation incidents, 17 from falls, 19 from exposures to harmful substances or environments, and 23 from 'contact with objects or equipment,' according to the AFL-CIO. 'Every worker in Wisconsin has the right to a safe job,' said Wisconsin AFL-CIO President Stephanie Bloomingdale. 'We need collective bargaining rights and strong unions for all to best ensure that safety concerns are adequately and timely addressed in the workplace.' Union groups around Wisconsin held events, including in Madison, Milwaukee, Eau Claire, La Crosse and Wausau. At the Madison event, people working in health care, construction, education and as state game wardens came out. There was also testimony on behalf of immigrant workers in the construction industry. 'Many of these workers are exploited and don't have a union,' Gundlach said. Recent attacks on migrants have made some 'fearful to speak up for workplace conditions.' The event also called attention to workplace violence as a danger, and the need for employers to address workplace safety issues. In its report, the AFL-CIO criticized the administration of President Donald Trump, which marks its first 100 days this week, for 'totally decimating the fabric of what makes government protections work for people through attacks on job safety, public health, union rights and the independence of federal agencies.' SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Miami Herald
11-04-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach sends blunt warning on stocks, bonds
Much has been said on tariffs this past week, and for good reason. President Trump's decision to ramp up import tariffs has sent shockwaves through the global economy, sending stocks and Treasury bond markets reeling. The tariff turmoil has sparked fierce debate among proponents and opponents. Those favoring tariffs say they're the best way to arm wrestle manufacturing back to America, while those against them argue they're inflationary and put the economy on track for recession. The reality is that we won't know how the tariff experiment pans out for a while. Building factories takes a long time, and it could be months before we know for certain how inflation will impact business and consumer spending trends. Negotiations with nations that may reduce tariffs on their exports are also kicking off and could significantly change assumptions over the impact of import taxes over the coming months. In short, there's tremendous uncertainty, and markets traditionally hate uncertainty. Related: Analyst resets recession risk after Jamie Dimon's message on economy That fact isn't lost on billionaire hedge fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach. Gundlach is the founder of DoubleLine, a hedge fund with over $90 billion in assets under management. Gundlach recently offered a blunt take on the current fallout from the tariff tussle, and given he's been professionally navigating markets since the mid-1980s, investors ought to pay attention. CNBC/Getty Images Much has happened in the past five years. The Covid pandemic shutdown required massive fiscal and monetary stimulus to prevent a Great Depression-like meltdown. However, that flood of cash sparked runaway speculation and skyrocketing inflation that eclipsed 8% in 2022. As a result, the Fed, after incorrectly arguing inflation was transitory in 2021, embarked on the most restrictive series of interest rate hikes since Fed Chair Paul Volcker battled inflation in the early 1980s. Related: Legendary fund manager sends blunt 9-word message on stock market tumble The restrictive monetary policy successfully wrestled inflation below 3% last year but also caused cracks in the jobs market, sending the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 3.5% in 2023. Now, the economy faces the jarring reality that higher tariffs could cause massive dislocations in economies worldwide, re-sparking inflation even as the jobs market remains shaky. Over 275,000 Americans lost their jobs in March, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, as Department of Government Efficiency job cuts took a toll -- up 205% year over year, and the worst showing since Covid in 2020. Unsurprisingly, that's taking a toll on confidence. On April 11, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index plunged 11% in April from March to 50.8, which was below Wall Street outlooks for 54.5. The Consumers Expectations Index dropped to 47.2 from 52.6 in March. The one-year inflation outlook surged to 6.7% from 5%. Unemployment expectations are now "more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009," according to the Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. The risk that falling confidence will cause consumer and business spending to retrench, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of recession isn't the only fallout from the ongoing trade war. Gundlach has seen a thing or two over his forty-year career managing money. His role as the head of one of the largest money managers gives him access to insight across sectors, industries, and asset classes. Related: Stanley Druckenmiller sends curt 7-word response to tariff war He's not a fan of what he's seeing right now, and given the size of the U.S. debt pile; the government isn't nearly in the position it was in 2020 to prop up the economy if things worsen. "Halfway through fiscal year 2025, the U.S. Budget deficit increased by $1.3 trillion. So we are up to a $2.6 trillion annual rate. That rounds up to an incredible 9% of GDP," wrote Gundlach in a post on "X." The soaring budget deficit means we rely heavily on foreign Treasury bond buyers to finance (and refinance) our spending. Foreign buyers own 30% of Treasuries, according to Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Group. Given our hefty deficit, the appetite to own Treasuries could weaken amid the ongoing trade war. We may already be feeling some shockwaves. "The 30-year US Treasury yield is going vertical," wrote Gundlach. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is often used as a benchmark by banks to set mortgage rates. It's also the risk-free rate businesses often use when weighing whether or not to invest in new projects, and investors use it to consider whether the risk of owning stocks is worth the possible reward. More Economic Analysis: Wall Street overhauls S&P 500 price targets as tariff selloff acceleratesInflation would like a word, pleaseStocks could bounce, but big bank earnings hold the cards The 10-year Treasury Note yield has also surged in the past week, rising to 4.5% from below 4% on April 5th. We're also seeing a massive drop in the value of the U.S. Dollar, which has long been considered a safe haven in times of distress. It has slumped to the lowest level in three years, "having fallen around 8.8% against a basket of its global peers since the start of the year", writes TheStreet's Martin Baccardax. The S&P 500 is down nearly 10% year-to-date, and Gundlach worries it's not over. In a CNBC interview on April 7, "The odds favor a recession at this point. It's kind of hard to see how we avoid it... The market was ridiculously overvalued going into 2025." Gundlach thinks the S&P 500 could see 4,500. It's currently 5,314. "The 30-year Treasury yield experienced the biggest increase since 1982, equities are falling, the dollar is falling, and gold hit an all-time high," wrote UBS economist Paul Donovan. The combination of a Treasury sell-off, which caused yields to spike and created headwinds for economic activity, and the U.S. Dollar decline may suggest a structural shift in the global framework that has benefited America for a very long time. Or, to put it bluntly: "The fit is hitting the shan," wrote Gundlach. Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Miami Herald
08-04-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
There's likely some stress among bond traders
One of the little-discussed by-products of the massive financial market turmoil since the end of March is who the losers might be. Aside from investors, of course. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter There will be some casualties among traders who are suddenly forced to sell securities to meet margin calls. They'd bet too much on risky stocks or on high-yield bonds, whose value slumped when stocks fell. Related: Stock Market Today: Stocks end mixed amid $9.5 trillion global wipeout The price of a bond is sum of the present value of the regular coupon payment (usually paid twice a year) and the present value of the principal value of the bond. When rates go up, the value of the income stream and the underlying bond must both fall. More Economic Analysis: Wall Street overhauls S&P 500 price targets as tariff selloff acceleratesInflation would like a word, pleaseStocks could bounce, but big bank earnings hold the cards If the position was built with a lot of borrowing, these investors might be forced to sell assets to make good on their obligations. When a situation like that arises, an investor often starts to fix the problem by selling his most valuable holdings first, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Gundlach, CEO and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, described the scenario during an interview with CNBC. Gundlach said he began to see forced selling on Friday when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.5% and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped nearly 6%. And on Monday, the forced selling became even more visible amid wildly gyrating stock prices. Bond yields went up, and that depressed the market value on the bonds. Gundlach said he didn't think the selling is done. The S&P 500 could bottom at 4,500. But he added, "I think someone is going to go bankrupt." He was quick to add he knew of no one in trouble. Bloomberg/Getty Images But maybe these investors will dodge the bullet on bankruptcy. The stock market rebounded from morning lows that saw the S&P 500 fall to an intraday low of 4,835.04. That dropped the relative strength index for the S&P to a value of 19. RSI measures whether a stock is overbought or, in this case, oversold. Below 30 means something is oversold. That 19 level is considered by some to be a screaming buy signal, and futures trading Monday was signaling a big relief rally on Tuesday. Related: Here's what a Fed official calls central bank's bigger challenge Many bonds are not traded on organized exchanges. So it can be hard to see the math of what Gundlach was talking about. You can see it in the behavior of the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond exchange-traded fund (JNK) . Shares of the ETF fell 0.9% to $91.61 Monday and are down 5.7% since hitting $97.12 on Feb. 28. The savings grace so far is that the ETF sports a distribution yield of 6.94%. The ETF is invested almost entirely in bonds rated BB or lower. Yahoo Finance data indicates it buys bonds in the energy industry. Energy is among the most volatile industries around. So, if interest rates go up or oil-and-natural gas prices go down, the fund price falls. Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
02-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is Adobe Inc. (ADBE) the Debt Free Halal Stock to Invest in Right Now?
We recently published a list of . In this article, we are going to take a look at where Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stands against other debt free halal stocks to invest in right now. The current economic conditions with elevated interest rates have made debt-free stocks increasingly valuable to investors. Companies without debt responsibilities avoid spending their funds on interest costs from loans or different types of borrowing. Due to their enhanced financial flexibility, corporate funds can be directed toward research and development, strategic growth projects, and business expansion initiatives that boost long-term business worth. Debt-free flexibility stands as an essential factor because high interest rates create better business models and financial results that matter during recessions. Low-debt stocks experience lower price volatility in challenging economic circumstances. Economic slowdowns, together with inflationary pressures, bring about elevated interest rates that result in market instability and increased investor concern. Companies without debt stand as more secure financial investments since they encounter a reduced probability of financial problems or bankruptcy. A turbulent market can find potential protection from negative effects through investing in shares with minimal debt which provides stability to uneasy investors. Investors who buy debt-free stocks receive the advantage of potentially better dividend payments at times when interest rates are elevated. Companies with robust cash reserves together with no debt hold better chances of allocating dividends to investors. The market value of debt-free stocks tends to be higher when interest rates are elevated. Jeffrey Gundlach shared his thoughts on market reactions to the Federal Reserve's recent meeting through his CNBC interview on January 30. Gundlach explained that the Fed declared no rush in interest rate suppression but investors interpreted it as moderate hawkishness. He stated the federal funds rate aligns perfectly with the two-year Treasury yield showing that the Fed maintains its current financial policy in response to economic conditions. Gundlach expressed skepticism about data-driven Federal Reserve policy because it potentially creates short-term monetary choices. He further observed unique market patterns after the Federal Reserve made its first interest rate reduction in September. Gundlach believes bond prices ascended after rate reductions but this situation features two-year Treasury yields increasing by 60 basis points together with ten-year Treasury yields growing by 85 basis points. The bond market displays unexpected behavior after Federal Reserve policy changes because investors observe both this market pattern and falling long bond ETF values. According to Gundlach, the ongoing Federal Reserve pause signifies market stability because they need more evidence before making decisions. In addition, Gundlach noted that the stock market faces difficulties due to the broader index's CAPE ratio of around 35. His comparison between the present CAPE ratio and the ratio that stood at 10 during Ronald Reagan's time shows that future value expansion is quite limited. Profitability stands as the chief determinant to boost stock market performance rather than multiple business expansions. With interest rates unlikely to decline soon, debt-free stocks remain attractive for their stability, resilience, and strong financial positioning. To compile this list, we chose the top 10 stocks from the S&P Shariah ETF, which includes all Shariah-compliant constituents of the broader index. After this, we compared their market caps with their enterprise value to gauge which ones are debt-free. The companies listed below may not be entirely debt-free, but they maintain a solid financial standing with low net debt and substantial cash reserves, ensuring they can comfortably meet their debt obligations. From that list, we picked 10 companies with the highest number of hedge funds having stakes in them, as per Insider Monkey's database of Q4 2024. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (). A team of engineers and scientists collaborating at a workstation surrounded by their applications and solutions. Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 117 The ninth stock on our list of the best halal stocks is Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE). It is a global leader in creative and digital marketing software. Its main products—Photoshop, Illustrator, and Acrobat, for example—have established themselves as industry standards for document management and content production, catering to a wide spectrum of clients from small businesses to individual producers. Digital experience creation, collaboration, and enhancement are made possible via the company's Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud platforms. Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) recently released Q2 guidance that matched market forecasts and posted better-than-expected Q1 2025 earnings. Analysts were concerned, meanwhile, about modifications to its disclosure of subscription revenue. The new reporting strategy makes it more difficult to monitor Creative Cloud's core business performance, according to a Citi analyst who has a neutral rating on the company. Matthew Swanson, an analyst at RBC Capital, on the other hand, had a positive assessment of the impressive Q1 performance. He emphasized Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)'s initiatives to implement fresh indicators that provide investors with a better understanding of the company. Swanson also said that focus is turning to the next Adobe Summit, where the business is anticipated to reveal more information regarding how it plans to make money off of its AI technologies. The analyst took a cautious stance, lowering his price objective for the stock from $550 to $530, even though he still maintained an Outperform rating. Overall, ADBE ranks 9th on our list of debt free halal stocks to invest in right now. While we acknowledge the potential of ADBE, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ADBE but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the . READ NEXT: and . Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at . Sign in to access your portfolio
