Latest news with #HamiltonByElection
Daily Mail
4 hours ago
- Politics
- Daily Mail
STEPHEN DAISLEY: Baillie grinned like the cat who got the cream...and sent the milkman to A&E
With its astonishing victory in the Hamilton by-election, Scottish Labour becomes the first recorded case of resurrection from the dead in more than 2,000 years. No one predicted this. Not the pollsters, nor the pundits; not the bookies, nor the broadcasters. Anyone who says otherwise is telling big fat porkies. Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse was staying SNP or there was going to be an upset for Reform. And while Richard Tice didn't look upset necessarily, you'd have been hard-pressed to guess his party had received one in every four votes cast in a staunchly left-wing seat it had never contested before. The Reform deputy leader's mind might have been on other matters. Earlier in the day, his party chairman Zia Yusuf quit amid an internal spat on the merits of banning the burqa. Hacks ambushed Tice at the count demanding his views. It's not every day South Lanarkshire Council HQ hosts an impromptu debate on Islamic theology. The man of the night, though, was Davy Russell. Up there on the dais with the other candidates, the bloke just beamed. He is what you'd get if you asked ChatGPT for a Lanarkshire granda: ruddy coupon, unpolished manner, plain diction, doesn't like a fuss, slips the grandweans full-fat Irn-Bru when their mammy isn't looking. (Speaking later to a journalist, he said: 'The only high greater than this was when my grandson Adam was born six weeks ago.' Bless.) His victory speech had obviously been written for him by a press officer and if his delivery was flat and unvaried, it was all this banal checklist of soundbites called for. There was, to be fair, one moment of wit. 'And for Ross,' Russell smirked, 'can you see me noo?' Ross Lambie, his Reform opponent, had branded Russell 'the invisible man' after he failed to show for a televised hustings. Labour's decision to keep their man away from the debate was a canny one. Russell is not a seasoned public speaker. He would have opened himself to awkward questions about Labour policies at Westminster. The potential for gaffes would have been too great. With any luck we'll see more pushback against this alien American interloper into our democracy. TV debates are show-business, not politics, and unless you have a showbiz candidate, they should be avoided. The outcome was as dazzling for Labour as for everyone else. As Anas Sarwar made a valiant attempt to explain the result to Sky News, over his shoulder Labour whip Martin McCluskey had an expression I've only ever seen on someone coming off a three-day bender. What was happening? Was it actually happening? Is it possible to hallucinate off the back of three cups of lukewarm tea? TV cameras caught Sarwar, gape-jawed and gripping Jackie Baillie by the elbows, before breaking into a smile. This victory belonged as much to him as to anyone. Beating the SNP is one thing, but he had triumphed over Scottish Labour's most fearsome foe: Keir Starmer. The Prime Minister threw everything he could at Russell's campaign — Universal Credit changes, Winter Fuel Allowance cuts, uncontrolled immigration — but somehow Scottish Labour managed to clinch victory from the jaws of Starmer. In the wee small hours of Friday there was already speculation that Sarwar could turn around the polls in time to win Holyrood 2026. But, wait, where was John Swinney in all this? He was the face of the SNP's campaign in Hamilton. He made the poll a choice between his genre of politics and that of Nigel Farage. Yet when the chips, not to mention the ballots, were down he was nowhere to be seen. On STV, it was put to Baillie that the First Minister had been adamant that Hamilton was a straight fight between the SNP and Reform. She grinned like the cat that not only got the cream but had sent the milkman to A&E in the process. 'The First Minister is adamant about a lot of things,' she purred. On Friday, Swinney finally found his way to a TV camera and asserted that, while the SNP had come second, it had nevertheless 'made progress'. If losing a constituency the SNP had held uninterrupted since 2011 is the First Minister's definition, may his party make much, much more progress over the next 12 months
Daily Mail
4 hours ago
- Politics
- Daily Mail
TOM HARRIS: A sigh of relief for Anas - but don't be fooled by Farage's failure to win
It is easy to see why the SNP often underestimates its traditional opponents in the Scottish Labour Party. But after Thursday's spectacular result in the Hamilton by-election, John Swinney 's party would be well advised not to repeat this strategic blunder. The smiles of Labour's victorious campaign team, including its new MSP, Davy Russell, were all too genuine, if tinged by an element of relief. Anas Sarwar's party, after all, had been written off in this contest, not least by the First Minister himself, who repeatedly warned voters that the by-election was a two-horse race between the SNP and Nigel Farage 's insurgent party, Reform UK. But if there was such a two-horse race between those two parties, it was for second and third place. Labour's victory will inject some much-needed confidence into its campaign to unseat the SNP at Holyrood next May, an effort that was looking increasingly forlorn as Keir Starmer 's one-year-old Labour administration at Westminster became ever more unpopular. But there is again a spring in Mr Sarwar's step this weekend, just as an ominous dark cloud has appeared over the head of John Swinney. The nationalists ought to have seen this coming. The late Christine McKelvie, whose sad, premature death caused the by-election in a seat she first won in 2011, was a popular figure in her party and in her Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse constituency. But world-weary strategists of any party know only too well that voters' sympathy for the loss of an MP or MSP, however sincerely felt, rarely translates into votes. The SNP's shameful record in government at Holyrood for the last 18 years played a much greater role in voters' judgment. And that does not bode well for Mr Swinney as polling day next May draws nearer. Expect Scottish Labour to remind Scots at every opportunity, in the next year, of the ever-lengthening catalogue of SNP policy failures, from historically-high NHS waiting lists to dodgy ferry contracts, from the fall in Scotland's international reputation on education to its disgraceful record on drug deaths. The result in Hamilton has boosted Scottish Labour's self-belief that it might actually draw the SNP's long hegemony finally to a close. But as the two traditional political enemies warily circle each other, firing insults and defending their own records, Thursday's third placed party demands some attention of its own. Who could have predicted, even a year ago, that a brand new party that scraped barely seven per cent of Scots' votes at the general election would come within five per centage points and 1,500 votes of taking a seat in Labour's former working class heartland? Aside from Labour's electoral resilience, the core message from Lanarkshire this week has been that there is, after all, an opportunity for a right-wing alternative to the SNP-Labour duopoly to attract the support of disillusioned and fed-up Scots. That will be frustrating to the Scottish Conservatives and its new leader, Russell Findlay, who, despite consistently and effectively holding the SNP government to account week after week at Holyrood, failed to tun that into votes in Thursday's by-election. Nigel Farage isn't exactly a new arrival on the political scene; most people hold strong views about him, one way or the other. To say that he is a divisive figure is like saying Donald Trump might not be everyone's cup of tea. But his party, Reform UK, looks likely to set the heather alight, even in left-wing, right-on Scotland. That there has always been a large section of the electorate who didn't buy into the high-immigration, high-tax, progressive vision of Scotland has never quite been proved, partly because of the reluctance of such people to vote for the Conservatives. Polling evidence suggested Scottish attitudes to immigration were little different from those in the rest of the UK, but that did little to dent Scotland's reputation as an exceptionalist haven of moderation and tolerance. Now voters have been offered an electoral alternative to the Tories, and with it the chance to disrupt the cosy consensus that has prevailed north of the border since devolution was born. Will they take it? The Scottish parliament elections will not be like a by-election, where the eventual winner can have little impact on how Scotland is governed. Will Scots really place their trust in – and their crosses against – Reform candidates? What is fascinating about the Hamilton result – and for the SNP, chilling – is that while Reform came from nowhere, and where Labour's vote since 2021 dropped by just two per cent, the SNP saw its support slump by nearly 17 per cent, much of that, we must assume, going to Reform. The establishment parties should avoid being lulled into a false sense of security by Reform's failure to win on Thursday. There's a new player in town and if it's still around by next May, the consequences for both Labour and the SNP could prove devastating. And entertaining.
The Independent
5 hours ago
- Politics
- The Independent
Labour hails ‘incredible' by-election victory – but can it see off Reform to win Holyrood in 2026?
Against expectations, Labour won the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election for the Scottish parliament. Anas Sarwar, its leader in Scotland, hailed the result as an 'incredible victory' and declared that voters are 'tired of SNP failure' but have 'rejected Reform 's poison'. However, with a little less than a year before the next elections at Holyrood, it's by no means clear who the next first minister will be. What happened in Hamilton? The by-election was held following the death earlier this year of Scottish government minister, Christina McKelvie. Labour's Davy Russell won after a swing of more than 7 per cent from the SNP to Labour, with 8,559 votes, beating SNP candidate Katy Loudon on 7,957 and Reform's Ross Lambie on 7,088. Mr Sarwar said: 'The choice is stark next year ... it is about choosing a government here in Scotland. The choice is stark – a third decade of the SNP with John Swinney as first minister or a new direction for Scotland with me as first minister.' Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice insisted his party was 'delighted' with coming third. 'We've come from nowhere to being in a three-way marginal, and we're within 750 votes of winning that by-election and just a few hundred votes of defeating the SNP, so it's an incredible result,' he said. Was it an 'incredible victory' for Labour? No. Labour did far worse than in a 2023 by-election for Westminster, and in last year's election. It even did a little worse here than it did in the 2021 Holyrood elections. What's more, it was hardly ahead of the SNP or, more shockingly, Reform UK. A shift of a few hundred votes out of the total of 27,155 cast could have swung it for any of three main contenders. It was really a three-way fight, and could easily have been won by either of the other two, with Labour possibly finishing a close third. The outstanding features were the collapse in SNP and Conservative support, plus a Reform UK surge in unpromising territory. What does it tell us about Labour? This took place in the central belt, where Labour staged a remarkable revival last year but has since suffered a steep decline, so the result was broadly in line with what opinion polls are telling us. So who will win the Scottish elections next year? Nobody, in the sense that the SNP will suffer heavy losses and Labour may do scarcely better than it did in 2021. On the current showing, the SNP will most likely emerge as the largest party unless Labour can stage a recovery and take voters away from the SNP, who've been in power since 2007. On the basis of this by-election and the opinion polls, no one will get anywhere near an overall majority, and it will be difficult for any realistic majority to be cobbled together. The Scottish election system has a good deal of proportionality in it which means that, unlike the first-past-the-post arrangement for the House of Commons, many more parties will gain a larger representation. Thus it seems likely that the SNP, Labour, Reform, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and possibly the Scottish Greens and Alba will be represented to some extent. The SNP, despite its slump since 2021, may well still be the largest single party, on about 32 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour. But the SNP would need the support of other, mostly unionist, parties if it wanted to govern on a truly stable basis – at the moment, an unlikely scenario. Alternatively, the SNP, possibly under new leadership, could follow the example of Alex Salmond in his first term as first minister from 2007 to 2011, and govern on a 'policy by policy' basis as a minority administration. Either way, the relative weakness of the SNP would stymie any further push for independence. But Labour, who beat the SNP in Scotland at last year's Westminster election, will be disappointed in 2026 if they fail to retake Holyrood, which they once dominated so effortlessly.
Daily Mail
5 hours ago
- Politics
- Daily Mail
Findlay issues apology for Tory failures after Hamilton by-election vote blow
Russell Findlay has apologised directly to voters for Conservative failures in office after his party came a distant fourth in the Hamilton by-election. The Scottish Tory leader refused to 'peddle the usual excuses' after the 'disappointing result' in the three-way marginal. 'I will be straight - this by-election delivered a harsh verdict on my party's previous period in government,' he said. 'Voters still feel badly let down by the previous UK Conservative government.' The Conservatives came third in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse at the 2021 Holyrood election with a 17.5 per cent share of the vote. But on Thursday it plunged to six per cent, just above the threshold needed to save its deposit. At the same time, Reform went from a standing start to 26.1 per cent, coming just 869 votes behind the SNP and 1,471 behind Labour. Tory insiders claimed some of their support backed Labour in a 'tactical Unionist vote' to help defeat the SNP. But with polls showing up to a quarter of Tory voters at the general election now backing Reform, many local Tories undoubtedly backed Reform's Ross Lambie. Writing in today's Mail, Mr Findlay said Tory candidate Richard Nelson was 'respected and hard-working' but many local people 'didn't feel we deserved their vote because over 14 years in power, we lost our way'. The West Scotland MSP said: 'I want to say directly to everyone who feels that way that I am listening, I get it and I understand how you feel. 'My party let you down in government and we accept responsibility for our mistakes.' On a more positive note, Mr Findlay said the by-election had also exposed how 'vulnerable and beatable' the SNP was under John Swinney. 'The era of damaging and divisive Nationalist rule can be brought to an end in 2026 and our party will play a pivotal part in doing so,' he promised. 'There are vast areas of Scotland where only we can beat the SNP. 'If we work hard, demonstrate to people that we've changed and show that we're ready to represent their interests, we can send John Swinney packing. What a prize that would be.' Kemi Badenoch insisted the Conservatives were still the main opposition to Labour despite her party sinking to fourth place in Hamilton. Reform also gained 677 seats in last month's English local elections as the Tories lost 674. Keir Starmer has said he now regard Nigel Farage's party as his main rivals at Westminster, despite it having only five MPs, because of its strong position in the polls. But Ms Badenoch dismissed Reform as a 'protest party' and called the claim that it was the real opposition 'nonsense'. Describing Reform as 'another left-wing party', she said: 'What they're trying to do is talk this situation into existence. Labour is going to be facing the Conservative Party at the next election and we're going to get them out.' Recent polls have put Reform well ahead of Labour on Westminster voting intention, with the Conservatives third and the Lib Dems close behind them. However the next general election is still four years away and Reform has yet to prove its credentials in power since it won control of a dozen English councils in May. The party has also been blighted by infighting, including the dramatic resignation of chair Zia Yusuf on Thursday after a public spat with Runcorn MP Sarah Pochin about burkas. Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said support for the Tories had never 'fallen so heavily' in a Holyrood by-election. He told the Telegraph: 'The Conservatives are at risk of recording their worst-ever performance in a Scottish Parliament election next year and could find themselves occupying a much diminished space in the Holyrood chamber as only the fourth-largest party.'
Telegraph
10 hours ago
- Politics
- Telegraph
By-election shows Reform could stop Labour winning power in Scotland
The result of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election underlined the scale of the impact that the rise of Reform could have on the future shape of Scottish politics. With 26 per cent of the vote, Reform came a highly creditable third, trailing the victorious Labour candidate by just five points. The party's performance was well above its 19 per cent tally in the most recent Scottish polls – even though Hamilton did not seem like particularly fertile ground for Nigel Farage's party. Polls indicate that much of Reform's support comes from those who back Brexit while, at 38 per cent, support for Leave in the constituency in 2016 was just as low as in Scotland as a whole. Yet this did not stop Reform from turning Hamilton into a three-way marginal in which no party won as much as a third of the vote. In the meantime, support for the Conservatives collapsed to just 6 per cent, 11 points down on the tally in the constituency at the last Holyrood election in 2021. Never before has the party's support fallen so heavily in a Scottish Parliament by-election. However, its doleful performance was fully in line with its current standing of 12 per cent in Scotland-wide opinion polls. Between a fifth and a quarter of those who voted Conservative in last year's general election are now backing Reform. The outcome in Hamilton confirms that, as a result of the rise of Reform, the Conservatives are at risk of recording their worst-ever performance in a Scottish Parliament election next year and could find themselves occupying a much diminished space in the Holyrood chamber as only the fourth-largest party. Reform is, however, not only taking votes from the Conservatives, but is also damaging Labour. According to the polls, more than one in six of those who backed Anas Sarwar's party last year have now switched to the pro-Brexit insurgents. Labour might have gained Hamilton from the SNP, but the party's share of the vote was, in line with the polls, two points down on 2021, an election at which the party came no better than third across Scotland as a whole. Its 31 per cent of the vote in Hamilton is well below the near 50 per cent the party achieved locally in last year's Westminster election. So, despite giving the party the sweet taste of victory, Labour's performance was well short of what it needed to demonstrate it is currently on course to win next year's Holyrood election. Its narrow victory in Hamilton is very different from the outcome of the Rutherglen Westminster by-election in October 2023, when a 24-point increase in Labour's share of the vote (to 59 per cent) presaged the party's success in the following year's general election. Labour's narrow victory did, however, underline how little progress the SNP has made in restoring its fortunes following the drubbing it received last year. The party's vote in Hamilton was down 17 points on 2021, similar to the 15-point fall being registered in the polls. Although the party is losing fewer votes to Reform than either Labour or the Conservatives, it still finds itself able to command the support of only a little over half of those who say they would currently vote yes in an independence vote. This position is a far cry from the near 90 per cent support the party enjoyed among yes supporters in 2021. Unlike then, yes supporters appear less forgiving than they once were of what many perceive as the SNP's poor record in government. Unless those voters are won back, the SNP faces the prospect of finding itself after next May's election as very much a minority government in a parliament in which Unionists – headed by Reform – enjoy a majority. While the SNP could still be in office after next May, the party might no longer be in power.
