Latest news with #Hsiang
GMA Network
9 hours ago
- Science
- GMA Network
Climate change could cut crop yields up to a quarter, says scientists
PARIS, France - Climate change is on track to reduce by 11 percent in 2100 the yields that today provide two-thirds of humanity's calories from crops, even taking into account adaptation to a warming world, scientists said Wednesday. As soon as 2050, this "moderate" scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040 and slowly taper off -- a trajectory aligned with current trends -- would see global losses of nearly eight percent. And if carbon pollution worsens, the loss of calories across the same six staples -- corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, sorghum and cassava -- rises to nearly a quarter by century's end, the researchers reported in Nature. More generally, every additional degree Celsius of warming reduces the world's ability to produce food from these crops by 120 calories per person per day, or nearly five percent of current daily consumption, they calculated. "If the climate warms by three degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a professor at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability in California. The steepest losses will occur at the extremes of the agricultural economy: in modern, Big Ag breadbaskets that currently enjoy some of the world's best growing conditions, and in subsistence farming communities that typically rely of small cassava harvests. North America would be hit hardest, losing a fifth of yields by 2100 in the moderate carbon pollution scenario, and two-fifths if emissions from burning fossil fuels continue apace. Working with more than a dozen scientists, Hsiang and co-leader Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor at the University of Urbana-Champaign, sifted through data from more than 12,000 regions in 55 countries. Erratic weather Previous calculations of how a warming world will impact crop yields generally failed to consider the ways in which farmers would adapt, such as switching crop varieties, shifting planting and harvesting dates, and altering fertiliser use. The scientists estimated such adjustments would offset about a third of climate related losses over the next 75 years in the scenario of rising emissions, but that residual impacts would still be devastating. "Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses for agriculture," said Hultgren. With the planet about 1.5C hotter than preindustrial levels in the late 1900s, farmers in many regions are already experiencing longer dry spells, unseasonable heatwaves and erratic weather that undermines yields. The nutritional value of most crops also declines with hotter temperatures, earlier research has shown. The study revealed sharp variations in the impact of global warming on different crops and regions. In the "worst-case" scenario of rising carbon emissions, corn yields would plummet 40 percent by 2100 across the grain belt of the United States, eastern China, central Asia, and the Middle East. For soybeans, yields in the US would decline by half, and increase by a fifth in Brazil. Wheat losses would drop by a fifth in eastern and western Europe, and by 30 to 40 percent in other wheat-growing regions: China, Russia and North America. Cassava would be hit hard everywhere it's grown. "Although cassava does not make up a large portion of global agricultural revenues, it is an important subsistence crop in low- and middle-income countries," the researchers pointed out. Among the six crops examined, rice is the only one that stands to benefit in a warmer climate, mainly due to warmer nights. — Agence France-Presse
Int'l Business Times
12 hours ago
- Science
- Int'l Business Times
Climate Change Could Cut Crop Yields Up To A Quarter
Climate change is on track to reduce by 11 percent in 2100 the yields that today provide two-thirds of humanity's calories from crops, even taking into account adaptation to a warming world, scientists said Wednesday. As soon as 2050, this "moderate" scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040 and slowly taper off -- a trajectory aligned with current trends -- would see global losses of nearly eight percent. And if carbon pollution worsens, the loss of calories across the same six staples -- corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, sorghum and cassava -- rises to nearly a quarter by century's end, the researchers reported in Nature. More generally, every additional degree Celsius of warming reduces the world's ability to produce food from these crops by 120 calories per person per day, or nearly five percent of current daily consumption, they calculated. "If the climate warms by three degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a professor at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability in California. The steepest losses will occur at the extremes of the agricultural economy: in modern, Big Ag breadbaskets that currently enjoy some of the world's best growing conditions, and in subsistence farming communities that typically rely of small cassava harvests. North America would be hit hardest, losing a fifth of yields by 2100 in the moderate carbon pollution scenario, and two-fifths if emissions from burning fossil fuels continue apace. Working with more than a dozen scientists, Hsiang and co-leader Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor at the University of Urbana-Champaign, sifted through data from more than 12,000 regions in 55 countries. Previous calculations of how a warming world will impact crop yields generally failed to consider the ways in which farmers would adapt, such as switching crop varieties, shifting planting and harvesting dates, and altering fertiliser use. The scientists estimated such adjustments would offset about a third of climate related losses over the next 75 years in the scenario of rising emissions, but that residual impacts would still be devastating. "Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses for agriculture," said Hultgren. With the planet about 1.5C hotter than preindustrial levels in the late 1900s, farmers in many regions are already experiencing longer dry spells, unseasonable heatwaves and erratic weather that undermines yields. The nutritional value of most crops also declines with hotter temperatures, earlier research has shown. The study revealed sharp variations in the impact of global warming on different crops and regions. In the "worst-case" scenario of rising carbon emissions, corn yields would plummet 40 percent by 2100 across the grain belt of the United States, eastern China, central Asia, and the Middle East. For soybeans, yields in the US would decline by half, and increase by a fifth in Brazil. Wheat losses would drop by a fifth in eastern and western Europe, and by 30 to 40 percent in other wheat-growing regions: China, Russia and North America. Cassava would be hit hard everywhere it's grown. "Although cassava does not make up a large portion of global agricultural revenues, it is an important subsistence crop in low- and middle-income countries," the researchers pointed out. Among the six crops examined, rice is the only one that stands to benefit in a warmer climate, mainly due to warmer nights.
France 24
13 hours ago
- Science
- France 24
Climate change could cut crop yields up to a quarter
As soon as 2050, this "moderate" scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040 and slowly taper off -- a trajectory aligned with current trends -- would see global losses of nearly eight percent. And if carbon pollution worsens, the loss of calories across the same six staples -- corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, sorghum and cassava -- rises to nearly a quarter by century's end, the researchers reported in Nature. More generally, every additional degree Celsius of warming reduces the world's ability to produce food from these crops by 120 calories per person per day, or nearly five percent of current daily consumption, they calculated. "If the climate warms by three degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a professor at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability in California. The steepest losses will occur at the extremes of the agricultural economy: in modern, Big Ag breadbaskets that currently enjoy some of the world's best growing conditions, and in subsistence farming communities that typically rely of small cassava harvests. North America would be hit hardest, losing a fifth of yields by 2100 in the moderate carbon pollution scenario, and two-fifths if emissions from burning fossil fuels continue apace. Working with more than a dozen scientists, Hsiang and co-leader Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor at the University of Urbana-Champaign, sifted through data from more than 12,000 regions in 55 countries. Erratic weather Previous calculations of how a warming world will impact crop yields generally failed to consider the ways in which farmers would adapt, such as switching crop varieties, shifting planting and harvesting dates, and altering fertiliser use. The scientists estimated such adjustments would offset about a third of climate related losses over the next 75 years in the scenario of rising emissions, but that residual impacts would still be devastating. "Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses for agriculture," said Hultgren. With the planet about 1.5C hotter than preindustrial levels in the late 1900s, farmers in many regions are already experiencing longer dry spells, unseasonable heatwaves and erratic weather that undermines yields. The nutritional value of most crops also declines with hotter temperatures, earlier research has shown. The study revealed sharp variations in the impact of global warming on different crops and regions. In the "worst-case" scenario of rising carbon emissions, corn yields would plummet 40 percent by 2100 across the grain belt of the United States, eastern China, central Asia, and the Middle East. For soybeans, yields in the US would decline by half, and increase by a fifth in Brazil. Wheat losses would drop by a fifth in eastern and western Europe, and by 30 to 40 percent in other wheat-growing regions: China, Russia and North America. Cassava would be hit hard everywhere it's grown. "Although cassava does not make up a large portion of global agricultural revenues, it is an important subsistence crop in low- and middle-income countries," the researchers pointed out. Among the six crops examined, rice is the only one that stands to benefit in a warmer climate, mainly due to warmer nights. © 2025 AFP
The Hill
16 hours ago
- Science
- The Hill
Climate change cuts crop yields, even with adaptation efforts: Study
Climate-induced warming is jeopardizing the global food supply even as farmers take adaptive measures to stymie these effects, scientists are warning. In contrast with previous research suggesting that warming could actually bolster food production, a new study, published in Nature on Wednesday, finds the opposite. For every additional degree Celsius the planet warms, its ability to produce food could decrease by 120 calories per person per day, or 4.4 percent of the current daily consumption, according to the study. 'If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast,' senior author Solomon Hsiang, a professor of environmental social sciences at Stanford University, said in a statement. Another serious side effect, Hsiang warned, could be price surges that infringe upon access to food for families across the world. U.S. agriculture is expected to suffer significant losses, particularly in the Midwest, the researchers noted. Lead author Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, warned that U.S. corn and soybean production could 'just get hammered under a high warming future.' 'You do start to wonder if the Corn Belt is going to be the Corn Belt in the future,' Hultgren said in a statement. Hsiang and Hultgren, together with more than a dozen scholars, worked over the past eight years to draw observations from more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries. They analyzed adaptation costs and yield for crops responsible for two-thirds of the planet's calories: wheat, rice, soybeans, barley and cassava. They found that previous studies failed to consider what adaptation measures might be realistic for farmers — assuming that they would implement either 'perfect' adaptation protocols or none at all. The researchers estimated that adjustments farmers are making — such as switching crops, shifting planting and harvesting dates and altering fertilizer — could offset about a third of climate-related losses in 2100 amid rising emissions. But the rest of the losses, they stressed, would remain. 'Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses from agriculture,' Hultgren said. Overall, the researchers found that yield losses could amount to about 41 percent in the wealthiest regions and 28 percent in lowest income areas by 2100. There is a 50 percent chance that the world's rice yields could rise, because rice thrives on warm nights, while there is a 70 to 90 percent chance that the other staple crops will decline, according to the study. In the shorter-term, the authors estimated that climate change would bring down global crop production by about 8 percent by 2050, regardless of the rise or fall of emissions. This is because carbon dioxide emissions, they explained, stay in the atmosphere, trapping heat for the long haul. Going forward, the scientists said they are working with the United Nations Development Program to raise awareness about their findings among governments. They are also creating a system to determine which communities are most at risk of declines and could benefit from targeted support. 'Farmers know how to maintain the soil, invest in infrastructure, repair the barn,' Hsiang said. 'But if you're letting the climate depreciate, the rest of it is a waste. The land you leave to your kids will be good for something, but not for farming.'
