Major Climate-GDP Study Under Review After Facing Challenge
But a re-analysis by Stanford University researchers in California, released Wednesday, challenges that conclusion -- finding the projected hit to be about three times smaller and broadly in line with earlier estimates, after excluding an anomalous result tied to Uzbekistan.
The saga may culminate in a rare retraction, with Nature telling AFP it will have "further information to share soon" -- a move that would almost certainly be seized upon by climate-change skeptics.
Both the original authors -- who have acknowledged errors -- and the Stanford team hoped the transparency of the review process would bolster, rather than undermine public confidence in science.
Climate scientist Maximilian Kotz and co-authors at the renowned Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), published the original research in April 2024, using datasets from 83 countries to assess how changes in temperature and precipitation affect economic growth.
It became the second most cited climate paper of the year, according to the UK-based Carbon Brief outlet, and informed policy at the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, US federal government and others. AFP was among numerous media outlets to report on it.
Yet the eye-popping claim that global GDP would be lowered by 62 percent by the year 2100 under a high emissions scenario soon drew scrutiny.
"That's why our eyebrows went up because most people think that 20 percent is a very big number," scientist and economist Solomon Hsiang, one of the researchers behind the re-analysis, also published in Nature, told AFP.
When they tried to replicate the results, Hsiang and his Stanford colleagues spotted serious anomalies in the data surrounding Uzbekistan.
Specifically, there was a glaring mismatch in the provincial growth figures cited in the Potsdam paper and the national numbers reported for the same periods by the World Bank.
"When we dropped Uzbekistan, suddenly everything changed. And we were like, 'whoa, that's not supposed to happen,'" Hsiang said. "We felt like we had to document it in this form because it's been used so widely in policy making."
The authors of the 2024 paper acknowledged methodological flaws, including currency exchange issues, and on Wednesday uploaded a corrected version, which has not yet been peer-reviewed.
"We're waiting for Nature to announce their further decision on what will happen next," Kotz told AFP.
He stressed that while "there can be methodological issues and debate within the scientific community," the bigger picture was unchanged: climate change will have substantial economic impacts in the decades ahead.
Frances Moore, an associate professor in environmental economics at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in either the original paper or the re-analysis, agreed. She told AFP the correction did not alter overall policy implications.
Projections of an economic slowdown by the year 2100 are "extremely bad" regardless of the Kotz-led study, she said, and "greatly exceed the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize the climate, many times over."
"Future work to identify specific mechanisms by which variation in climate affects economic output over the medium and long-term is critical to both better understand these findings and prepare society to respond to coming climate disruption," she also noted.
Asked whether Nature would be retracting the Potsdam paper, Karl Ziemelis, the journal's physical sciences editor, did not answer directly but said an editor's note was added to the paper in November 2024 "as soon as we became aware of an issue" with the data and methodology.
"We are in the final stages of this process and will have further information to share soon," he told AFP.
The episode comes at a delicate time for climate science, under heavy fire from the US government under President Donald Trump's second term, as misinformation about the impacts of human-driven greenhouse gases abounds.
Yet even in this environment, Hsiang argued, the episode showed the robust nature of the scientific method.
"One team of scientists checking other scientists' work and finding mistakes, the other team acknowledging it, correcting the record, this is the best version of science." Researchers AFP spoke to said the effects of heat on economies of countries near the tropics is magnified, like the riverbank dwellers carrying banana produce in northern Brazil AFP
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Local Germany
an hour ago
- Local Germany
EXPLAINED: How will the new US tariffs affect Germany?
Following an agreement between the EU and US President Donald Trump , new tariffs – set at 15 percent on most European goods imported into the US – have come into force as of Thursday morning. Germany, along with most nations that engage in trade with the US, has been rocked by a whirlwind of different tariffs and tariff threats from the US since the Trump administration took control in January. Previous tariff announcements, as well as retaliatory tariff announcements by the EU, had elicited grave warnings from economists and business interests and sent global economies into a period a deep uncertainty. With various tariffs at various rates having been applied and then altered or repealed many times over, you may be wondering, what does any of this really mean? Here's an overview of what the latest tariffs mean for people living in Germany. How will the 15 percent tariff affect me? Assuming you're not a major investor in a German export business, you probably wont notice the effects of the US tariffs, at least not directly. The 15 percent import duty is to be levied on products from Germany that are sold in the US, so US-based companies and customers will be the ones to pay those higher prices. Retaliatory tariffs would have affected prices for European consumers directly, but now that an agreement has been reached between Trump and the EU Commission, the EU has suspended any countermeasures for at least six months. So consumers in Germany don't need to worry about immediate tariff related price increases. READ ALSO: Why gas bills in Germany are set to get cheaper US made cars could actually get cheaper in Europe, because the recent trade agreement will see the EU scrap protectionary tariffs on American autos, which were previously set at ten percent. (But US car makers are affected by tariffs on parts and materials that they import from around the world, including Europe, so those car prices could rise as well.) Advertisement How will German companies be affected? As opposed to consumers, German companies could be more directly impacted by the tariffs if they end up losing business in the US due to increased prices on their products there. According to a report by Welt, some big German companies are well positioned, thanks to having previously set up manufacturing plants in the US. This includes the gummy-bear maker Haribo, for example, and the tech giant Siemens. Interestingly, many small and midsized German manufacturers are not as concerned about the tariffs – especially those who say their products are specialised enough that they cannot be replaced by US-made alternatives. Billion-dollar agreements On top of the 15 percent tariff rate, the EU has agreed to buy energy from the US worth $750 billion (€650 billion), as well as agreeing that a further $600 billion (nearly €520 billion) is to be invested in the US. Advertisement It's unclear if that latter investment is a realistic sum. The EU Commission has suggested that European companies have expressed interest in making those investments but says it's ultimately up to them. Trump has spoken of the potential investments as a gift. While the trade agreement appears heavily slanted in favour of the US, European leaders , including Chancellor Friedrich Merz , have suggested that accepting the tariffs and trade terms is the best option. "We have thus managed to preserve our fundamental interests, even if I would have wished for more relief…" he said shortly after the deal was announced.
Int'l Business Times
6 hours ago
- Int'l Business Times
Higher US Tariffs Take Effect On Dozens Of Economies
Higher US tariffs came into effect for dozens of economies Thursday, drastically raising the stakes in President Donald Trump's wide-ranging efforts to reshape global trade. As an executive order signed last week by Trump took effect, US duties rose from 10 percent to levels between 15 percent and 41 percent for a list of trading partners. Many products from economies like the European Union, Japan and South Korea now face a 15-percent tariff, even with deals struck with Washington to avert steeper threatened levies. But others like India face a 25-percent duty -- to be doubled in three weeks -- while Syria, Myanmar and Laos face staggering levels at either 40 percent or 41 percent. The latest tariff wave of "reciprocal" duties, aimed at addressing trade practices Washington deems unfair, broadens the measures Trump has imposed since returning to the presidency. But these higher tariffs do not apply to sector-specific imports that are separately targeted, such as steel, autos, pharmaceuticals and chips. Trump said Wednesday he planned a 100-percent tariff on semiconductors -- though Taipei said chipmaking giant TSMC would be exempt as it has US factories. Even so, companies and industry groups warn that the new levies will severely hurt smaller American businesses. Economists caution that they could fuel inflation and weigh on growth in the longer haul. While some experts argue that the effects on prices will be one-off, others believe the jury is still out. With the dust settling on countries' tariff levels, at least for now, Georgetown University professor Marc Busch expects US businesses to pass along more of the bill to consumers. An earlier 90-day pause in these higher "reciprocal" tariffs gave importers time to stock up, he said. But although the wait-and-see strategy led businesses to absorb more of the tariff burden initially, inventories are depleting and it is unlikely they will do this indefinitely, he told AFP. "With back-to-school shopping just weeks away, this will matter politically," said Busch, an international trade policy expert. The tariff order taking effect Thursday also leaves lingering questions for partners that have negotiated deals with Trump recently. Tokyo and Washington, for example, appear at odds over key details of their tariffs pact, such as when lower levies on Japanese cars will take place. Washington has yet to provide a date for reduced auto tariffs to take effect for Japan, the EU and South Korea. Generally, US auto imports now face a 25-percent duty under a sector-specific order. A White House official told AFP that Japan's 15-percent tariff stacks atop of existing duties, despite Tokyo's expectations of some concessions. Meanwhile, the EU continues to seek a carveout from tariffs for its key wine industry. In a recent industry letter addressed to Trump, the US Wine Trade Alliance and others urged the sector's exclusion from tariffs, saying: "Wine sales account for up to 60 percent of gross margins of full-service restaurants." Trump is also not letting up in his trade wars. He opened a new front Wednesday by doubling planned duties on Indian goods to 50 percent, citing New Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil. But the additional 25-percent duty would take effect in three weeks. Trump's order for added India duties also threatened penalties on other countries that "directly or indirectly" import Russian oil, a key revenue source for Moscow's war in Ukraine. Existing exemptions still apply, with pharmaceuticals and smartphones excluded for now. And Trump has separately targeted Brazil over the trial of his right-wing ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of planning a coup. US tariffs on various Brazilian goods surged from 10 percent to 50 percent Wednesday, but broad exemptions including for orange juice and civil aircraft are seen as softening the blow. Still, key products like Brazilian coffee, beef and sugar are hit. Many of Trump's sweeping tariffs face legal challenges over his use of emergency economic powers, with the cases likely to ultimately reach the US Supreme Court. An order by President Donald Trump, raising tariffs on dozens of trading partners, took effect Thursday AFP US companies and industry groups warn that President Donald Trump's new tariffs could severely hurt smaller American businesses AFP
Int'l Business Times
6 hours ago
- Int'l Business Times
Pacific Microstate Sells First Passports To Fund Climate Action
A remote Pacific nation has started selling passports to fund climate action, but is so far struggling to attract new citizens to the low-lying, largely barren island. Pacific microstate Nauru, one of the world's smallest nations, has a novel plan to fund its fight against climate change by selling so-called "golden passports". Selling for US$105,000 each, Nauru plans to drum up more than US$5 million in the first year of the "climate resilience citizenship" programme. Almost six months after the scheme opened in February, Nauru has so far approved just six applications -- covering two families and four individuals. Despite the slow start -- Nauru eventually hopes to sell 66 passports in the scheme's first year -- President David Adeang remained upbeat. "We welcome our new citizens whose investment will assist Nauru to secure a sustainable and prosperous future for generations to come," he told AFP on Thursday. Nauru believes the passport programme could eventually generate $43 million -- or about 500 successful applicants -- which would account for almost 20 percent of total government revenue. But there are fears the scheme could be ripe for exploitation. Edward Clark, who runs Nauru's climate passport programme, said one application has already been withdrawn after officials flagged "adverse findings" during background checks. "The application would have been rejected had it not been withdrawn," he told AFP. A previous Nauru attempt to sell passports ended in disaster. In 2003, Nauru officials sold citizenship to Al-Qaeda members who were later arrested in Asia. Among the first batch of climate passports approved was an unnamed German family of four living in Dubai, said Clark touting the "major milestone". "They were looking for a second citizenship to provide them with a Plan B given the current global political volatility." The Nauru passport provides visa-free entry into 89 countries, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong. More than 60 different nations offer some form of migration for investment schemes, Australia's Lowy Institute has found. Pacific nations such as Vanuatu, Samoa and Tonga have all dabbled in selling passports. The island republic of Nauru sits on a small plateau of phosphate rock in the sparsely populated South Pacific. With a total landmass of just 21 square kilometres (eight square miles), it is one of the world's smallest nations. Unusually pure phosphate deposits -- a key ingredient in fertiliser -- once made Nauru one of the wealthiest places, per capita, on the planet. But these supplies have long dried up, and researchers today estimate 80 percent of Nauru has been rendered uninhabitable by mining. What little land Nauru has left is threatened by encroaching tides. Scientists have measured sea levels rising 1.5 times faster than global averages. Nauru will eventually need to relocate 90 percent of its population as creeping seas start to eat away at its coastal fringe. The first phase of this mass relocation is estimated to cost more than $60 million.
