4 days ago
Taiwan readying 'carrier killer' missile to thwart China invasion
Betting on stealth over speed, Taiwan is forging a long-range 'carrier killer' to push back China's carriers and toughen the First Island Chain—even as layered Chinese defenses and shaky allied politics cloud the gambit.
This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Taiwan is developing a long-range subsonic anti-ship cruise missile that defense analysts say could significantly strengthen deterrence against China's growing naval power, citing a defense ministry procurement list.
Under the Defense Industry Development Act, the ministry will spend NT$40 million (US$1.3 million) over two years on 80 frequency-agile coaxial magnetrons, radar components for the new missile and existing models.
Meanwhile, local media said more than NT$800 million (US$26 million) was allocated in 2021–2022 to adapt Hsiung Feng IIE land-attack technology with enhanced stealth. Taiwan's National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) is believed to have led the weapon's development since 2021.
Analysts, citing the US AGM-158B and C as references, estimate the missile will have a range of 600–1,000 kilometers—enough to reach beyond Chinese carrier-based aircraft and cover large parts of the East and South China Seas.
The new weapon aims to offset the Hsiung Feng III's 400-kilometer limit and the US-made Harpoon's 200-kilometer reach, both requiring risky penetration of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) layered defenses.
The timing highlights urgency, with two PLA Navy (PLAN) carriers exercising in the Western Pacific amid a years-long escalation since Beijing cut ties in 2016. China claims Taiwan as its territory, while the US remains Taipei's leading arms supplier, shaping the self-governing island's procurement and war planning.
Jonathan Harman mentions in an October 2024 Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) article that domestic production of missile platforms offers Taiwan mainly quicker deployment and reduced costs for weapons that match the performance of US systems. Harman notes that Taiwan aims to replace specific US missile systems with its indigenous variants, although some still require improvements to serve as a more credible deterrent.
In line with that, Taiwan's subsonic Hsiung Feng II is slower, more vulnerable to shipboard defenses and has a short range of only 120 kilometers. Although the Harpoon has a longer range, it remains a subsonic missile.
The supersonic Hsiung Feng III may have a better chance of punching through shipboard defenses but lacks sufficient reach for standoff fires against PLAN surface groups. Together, these limits may explain Taipei's shift toward a stealthier, longer-ranged option.
Taiwan's emphasis on a stealthy, long-range anti-ship missile may also reflect a change of philosophy in defeating shipboard air defenses. The AGM-158, which Taiwan may take as a design reference for its new missile, has a low radar cross-section and minimal infrared signature to evade modern ship defenses.
In contrast, supersonic missiles try to 'outrun' interceptors, but they emit intense heat during flight, increasing detectability and engagement opportunities. The divergence captures two schools of thought about beating increasingly sophisticated naval shields.
Underscoring just how formidable China's carrier defenses are, Daniel Rice notes in a July 2024 China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) report that its carrier battle groups employ three concentric zones. These include: An Outer Defense Zone 185–400 kilometers from the carrier, where J-15 fighters and submarines conduct surveillance and precision anti-air/anti-ship strikes, executing 'offense to enhance defense' A Middle Defense Zone, 45–185 kilometers away, where large surface combatants—Type 052D 'sword-carrying guards' with advanced radars and vertical launch systems (VLS), and Type 054A frigates acting as 'bodyguards'—focus on anti-submarine warfare and area air defense An Inner Defense Zone, 100 meters–45 kilometers from the carrier, where shipborne point defenses ring the flattop, which serves as the command-and-control (C2) hub.
Taiwan's existing anti-ship missiles leave gaps that a new system aims to close. The Hsiung Feng II, Harpoon and Hsiung Feng III cover short to medium ranges. A longer-ranged, harder-to-detect missile would extend its sea-denial envelope.
Further, Craig Koerner mentions in an October 2021 Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) article that Taiwan's asymmetrical defense strategy would leverage its terrain to deploy numerous ground-based anti-ship and anti-air missile units.
According to Koerner, these units, concealed by camouflage and decoys, can target invading forces while avoiding detection. Koerner says this 'porcupine strategy' offers a cost-effective defense, reduces vulnerability to China's strikes and surveillance, and sustains deterrence.
The regional picture trends in the same direction. Taiwan is not alone in pursuing land-based, anti-ship capabilities; US allies are normalizing distributed, road-mobile launchers to complicate PLA planning.
For instance, Japan plans to acquire 1,000 upgraded Type 12 cruise missiles and host the US Navy/Marine Corps Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS), while the Philippines indefinitely hosts the US Typhon and NMESIS systems—moves that toughen the First Island Chain's anti-ship missile wall and create cross-pressures on PLA surface operations.
However, this larger US strategy of containing China faces significant caveats. Eric Gomez argues in a November 2023 Cato Institute report that Taiwan's asymmetric strategy is less flexible than traditional capabilities in peacetime or gray-zone scenarios, but remains essential for deterring and surviving a Chinese invasion.
Suppose the PLA blockades Taiwan with naval and air forces to cut off shipping without storming the island's beaches in an amphibious invasion; then, Taiwan's shore missiles have no clear target unless it escalates to firing the first shot.
While a blockade may seek to force capitulation without fighting, Gomez says that approach often fails to achieve its aims, while pointing out that an invasion carries the highest risk but is the most likely approach to succeed.
Masashi Murano points out in a March 2024 article for the US Studies Centre (USSC) that Japan's long-range strike capability faces critical gaps in support assets, munitions stockpiles, joint operational doctrine and persistent intelligence tracking. He adds that legal constraints and escalation risks further limit its ability to credibly deter nuclear-armed adversaries such as China through conventional counterstrike operations.
Domestic politics can also reroute strategy. Derek Grossman warns in a July 2025 Foreign Policy article that shifting Philippine politics could upend US defense plans: Vice President Sara Duterte—the 2028 presidential frontrunner after midterm gains—could roll back President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's US alliance expansion, invoking the constitution's call for an 'independent' foreign policy and thus implicitly criticizing the US Typhon deployment in northern Luzon that has sparked Beijing's ire.
Grossman notes she might follow her father's precedent by revisiting moves to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and by curbing the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement's (EDCA) now nine-site access, risking US access, training and surge capacity in the Philippines.
Strategic bandwidth is another constraint. US involvement in overlapping conflicts—support to Ukraine, naval operations against the Houthis in Yemen, backing Israel versus Iran and responding to North Korea's nuclear saber-rattling—could sap political will and overstretch the defense industrial base, making US intervention against China's designs over Taiwan unfeasible if the timelines collide.
Ultimately, Taiwan's deterrence hinges less on one 'carrier killer' than on whether Taipei can outlast a Chinese blockade while allied resolve from the Philippines to Japan—and US bandwidth—holds fast.
