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Indian Express
3 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
What Operation Sindoor tells us about the nature of escalation, and India's changing approach
The four-night military confrontation between India and Pakistan that began early on May 7 was the most expansive outbreak of hostilities since the war of 1971. The Kargil conflict of 1999 was limited to a small area in Jammu and Kashmir; during Operation Sindoor, India hit targets up to 100 km inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), and Pakistan launched aerial attacks against J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan, even Haryana. In terms defined by the American military strategist and thinker Herman Kahn's 44-step 'escalation ladder', the situation can be seen as having begun with the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22 — the 'Ostensible Crisis' — and gone up to the stage of 'Dramatic Military Confrontations' before being paused by the ceasefire of May 10. The idea of escalation began to appear in strategic literature in the years after the end of World War II, in part as a reaction to the idea of 'all-out' war. Kahn, a futurist and military strategist who co-founded the Washington DC think tank Hudson Institute with the vision of 'thinking about the future in unconventional ways', was the preeminent Western theorist of the 'structure' of escalation. Kahn's metaphor for escalation was a ladder, each rung of which denoted a rising level of conflict. In 1962, Kahn proposed a 16-step ladder of escalation from 'Subcrisis Disagreement' to 'Aftermath'. Three years later, he published On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios (1965), in which he developed a more detailed, 44-step ladder of escalation — with 'Ostensible Crisis' as Step 1, and 'Spasm/ Insensate War' as Step 44. The India-Pakistan escalation The Pahalgam terror attack can be described as 'Ostensible Crisis' — Step 1, in which 26 civilians including 25 tourists and one local Kashmiri were killed by Pakistan-backed terrorists on April 22. This led to Step 2, 'Political, Economic and Diplomatic Gestures' — India's decisions from April 23 onward can be labeled as such. These include the decision to keep the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, cancelling the visas of Pakistani nationals, stopping trade and postal services, closing India's air space for Pakistan's aircraft, not allowing Pakistan-flagged ships to dock at Indian ports, etc. Then came Kahn's Step 3 — 'Solemn and Formal Declarations'. India's top leadership declared the intent to avenge the killings of the tourists at Pahalgam — Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to 'pursue the terrorists and those who shelter them to the very end'. And Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif promised a 'crushing reply to any Indian misadventure'. Kahn's Step 4 is the 'Hardening of Positions — Confrontation of Wills'. India blamed Pakistan for not taking action against terrorist groups, while Islamabad asked for evidence of India's accusation. It also said that India's position on the IWT would be deemed as an 'act of war'. Step 5, Kahn's rung of 'Show of Force' was seen as the Indian Navy on April 27 carried out multiple anti-ship missile firings, underlining its preparedness for long-range offensive strikes. On May 3, Pakistan test-fired Abdali, its surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a 450-km range. Step 6 — 'Significant Mobilisation' — was quick and stealthy, and from May 7 onward, the escalation quickly reached rungs 8 ('Harassing Acts of Violence') and 9 ('Dramatic Military Confrontations'). India struck at nine terror locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and successfully thwarted Pakistani drone attacks along the western border. The two militaries remained at Step 9 for four nights before they agreed to stop military action — this is where Kahn's escalation ladder was aborted. 2016, 2019: change of doctrine In Choices: Inside the Making of Indian Foreign Policy, former National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon concluded the chapter on the 26/11 terror attacks ('Restraint or Riposte? The Mumbai Attack and Cross-Border Terrorism from Pakistan') with the sentence: '…Personalities matter. With a different mix of people at the helm, it is quite possible that India would have chosen [to act] differently [in the aftermath of the attacks]. In fact, if India is forced to make a similar choice in the future, I am sure it will respond differently.' The book was published in November 2016. Weeks earlier, on September 29, Indian special forces had crossed the Line of Control to carry out surgical strikes on terrorist launchpads in PoK. That October, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told a gathering in Mandi, Himachal Pradesh: 'Earlier Israel used to be spoken of like this (in the context of carrying out targeted military strikes against its enemies). Now everyone knows our Army can do it too and is no less capable.' A little over two years later, in February 2019, the Prime Minister said in Hindi at a public meeting in Churu, Rajasthan: 'I swear by this soil that I won't let the nation be destroyed, I won't let the nation be stopped. It is my promise to Bharat Ma that I won't let her head be bowed.' In these two speeches, the Prime Minister mentioned neither the surgical strikes nor the Balakot air strikes of February 26, 2019, but the change in India's doctrine of response to terrorism was clear. In his address to the nation on May 12 this year, Modi articulated the elements of India's current doctrine against terrorism: a befitting response on India's terms; zero tolerance for Pakistan's nuclear blackmail; and no distinction between terrorist leaders and state sponsors of terrorism. He also made it clear that India had only 'suspended' its military action, and underlined that for New Delhi, this was the 'new normal' now. India's new policy is qualitatively higher in aggression. Targeting the Pak establishment that has long used cross-border terrorism as an instrument of policy means the military and government of that country are not off-limits for future retributive actions. By linking Pakistan-based groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed to major terrorist attacks in the US and UK, Modi framed Operation Sindoor as India's war on terrorism, similar to what NATO launched in Afghanistan after 9/11. The PM also painted Pakistan as a country that protects, rather than going after, terrorists, and laid down the red lines on resuming the bilateral dialogue that has been suspended since 2016. Takeaways, outlook going forward New Delhi has its task cut out — politically, diplomatically, and militarily. LOWER THRESHOLD FOR ACTION: India's 'new normal' has lowered the threshold of response in case of a major terrorist attack in future. In terms of Kahn's ladder of escalation, this could mean India's response will begin from Step 3 (Solemn and Formal Declarations) and could very quickly escalate to Steps 9 (Dramatic Military Confrontations) and 10 ('Provocative Breaking off of Diplomatic Relations'). Step 12 ('Large Conventional War') would be very much on the horizon. DIPLOMATIC CHALLENGE: Pakistan has been trying to project itself as the victim before the international community. New Delhi is concerned at the false equivalence between the two countries that some in the West have suggested, along with a re-hyphenation of India and Pakistan. The multi-political party outreach by the Indian government, where bipartisan political delegations are currently travelling the world, explaining to countries that India was the original victim in Pahalgam, and that it responded in self-defence. THE DONALD TRUMP FACTOR: President Trump's claim of a 'US-brokered ceasefire' has created a challenge for India, which has always rejected any third-party involvement in India-Pakistan issues. Trump's view of the May 10 ceasefire as a success for American diplomacy and the first 'military confrontation' that he has been able to stop from escalating presents Indian diplomacy with a delicate task. New Delhi has to navigate Trump's unpredictable statements and posts on social media, pushing back with tact and conviction. NEW FRONTIERS OF WAR: Besides upgrading its military prowess to dominate in the air, at sea, and on land, India will have to also build capacity in the new frontiers of war where evolving and improving technology is changing the rules very rapidly. Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express, has been a journalist for more than 25 years now. Roy joined The Indian Express in October 2003 and has been reporting on foreign affairs for more than 17 years now. Based in Delhi, he has also led the National government and political bureau at The Indian Express in Delhi — a team of reporters who cover the national government and politics for the newspaper. He has got the Ramnath Goenka Journalism award for Excellence in Journalism '2016. He got this award for his coverage of the Holey Bakery attack in Dhaka and its aftermath. He also got the IIMCAA Award for the Journalist of the Year, 2022, (Jury's special mention) for his coverage of the fall of Kabul in August 2021 — he was one of the few Indian journalists in Kabul and the only mainstream newspaper to have covered the Taliban's capture of power in mid-August, 2021. ... Read More
Morocco World
5 days ago
- Politics
- Morocco World
Syria Confirms Closure of Polisario Separatist Premises in Damascus
Doha – Damascus authorities have officially confirmed the shuttering of premises occupied by Polisario separatists in the Syrian capital, delivering a devastating blow to the militants' fading aspirations for legitimacy and regional relevance. The confirmation came during a visit by a Moroccan technical delegation tasked with preparing the reopening of Morocco's embassy in Syria after a 13-year closure. A joint mission comprising Moroccan officials and high-ranking Syrian authorities conducted an on-site inspection to verify the effective closure of the separatist group's office in Damascus. Syrian officials reaffirmed their commitment to respecting Morocco's national sovereignty and territorial integrity, explicitly rejecting any form of support for separatist entities. This move represents a tangible manifestation of Syria's firm determination to strengthen bilateral cooperation with Morocco and promote regional stability. The decision by King Mohammed VI to reopen Morocco's embassy in Damascus signals the dawn of a new era in Moroccan-Syrian relations. The embassy's reopening, announced on May 17, comes after fundamental disagreements with the now-collapsed Assad regime had prompted its closure in 2012. King Mohammed VI stressed that this diplomatic reestablishment 'will open broader perspectives in the historical relations between our two countries and our two peoples.' Assad's Syria armed separatists covertly Ongoing disclosures continue to unmask the depth of the former Assad regime's complicity with the Iran-backed Polisario separatists—exposing, one after another, the covert channels, political favors, and ideological alliances that long sustained the militants' fabricated cause. Evidence has mounted conclusively linking the separatist militia to Tehran's malign regional activities. An April comprehensive analysis by the Hudson Institute brought to light that the Polisario 'receives drones from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) through transfers facilitated by the Algerian regime' and routinely 'smuggles arms to jihadist insurgencies that threaten American forces across the Sahel.' This relationship has transformed the group from mere separatists into a dangerous extension of the Iranian regime's destabilizing proxy network across North Africa. The threat posed by this axis cannot be overstated, as the theocratic regime in Tehran continues exploiting the Polisario as a strategic lever to project power far beyond its borders. Security experts have documented how Iran's revolutionary agenda has weaponized the separatist group, providing not only material support but also tactical training through Hezbollah operatives specifically to undermine Morocco's territorial integrity and broader regional security architecture. A document marked 'highly confidential' from January 2012 detailed a secret alliance between Assad's government and the Polisario Front. The correspondence revealed that Polisario dispatched militias to undergo military training with the Syrian Arab army under a program coordinated with Hezbollah in Beirut. Security sources confirmed in December 2024 that approximately 30 Polisario militants were captured by Syrian opposition forces in Aleppo. These militants were reportedly abandoned by Assad regime forces during clashes. Former Iraqi deputy Omar Abdul Sattar stated the militants were found in a rural Aleppo camp after being transported there by Algeria with Iranian support. 'They were under the supervision of Iranian military advisor Borhashmi, who was killed, and were receiving military training before their planned return to Tindouf to use these experiences in operations against Moroccan territories,' Abdul Sattar noted. An April Washington Post report corroborated the deep collaboration between Iran-backed Hezbollah, and the Polisario Front, and Algeria—the patron, primary financier, and relentless political sponsor of the separatist movement. The report cited sources confirming that Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy, trained Polisario Front separatists to advance its interests. As quoted, regional and European officials verified that Iran trained fighters from the 'Algeria-based Polisario Front' who are now detained by Syria's new security forces. Polisario's isolation reaches breaking point Morocco severed ties with Iran in 2018, presenting substantial evidence of Tehran's arming and training of Polisario separatists through Hezbollah. Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita affirmed that Morocco provided detailed documentation of the Polisario-Hezbollah conspiracy. 'The file was carefully prepared, for weeks, on the basis of information collected and cross-checked over several months,' Bourita stated at the time, adding that the document summarizes 'proven and precise facts: dates of visits by senior officers of Hezbollah in Algeria, dates and venues of meetings with Polisario officials, and a list of names of agents involved in these contacts.' Following the Assad regime's collapse in December, the Syrian National Salvation Front has urged Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa to cut all ties with the Polisario Front and officially recognize Morocco's sovereignty over its southern provinces. The opposition group specifically called on the Syrian president to open a consular office in Laayoune. King Mohammed VI has reaffirmed Morocco's support for the Syrian people in achieving their aspirations for freedom, peace, and stability. Morocco stands ready to assist Syria 'while they navigate this critical and decisive phase in their history in complete harmony with our principled stance supporting Syria's territorial integrity and national sovereignty,' the monarch declared in a royal message in February. The closure of the Polisario office in Syria marks a resounding defeat for the separatist group—dismantling one of its last propaganda footholds in the region and further isolating its collapsing agenda on the international stage. About 113 countries now back Morocco's Autonomy Plan as the most credible political solution to end the dispute. Tags: Assad regimeMorocco SyriaPolisario Front
India Gazette
22-05-2025
- Politics
- India Gazette
Japanese strategic expert praises India's Operation Sindoor, calls out Pakistan for supporting terrorism
Tokyo [Japan], May 22 (ANI): Japanese strategic expert Satoru Nagao, a Fellow (Non-resident) at the Hudson Institute, has praised India's Operation Sindoor, calling it a 'responsible and proper' response against state-sponsored terrorism. He called out Pakistan for supporting terrorism and called it a 'suicide' as no one can control terrorists. The expert whose primary research area is the US-Japan-India security cooperation in an interview with ANI, termed the April 22 terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam as 'terrible'. As many as 26 people were killed and several others were injured in that terrorist attack The Japanese expert emphasised that India has suffered from terrorism and Pakistan supports this terrorism. He also noted that support Islamabad's support for terrorism has a long history. On the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, he said, 'That was terrible, of course, because even the Japanese got a chance to see what happened. In one picture, we see a picture in which (a woman is) just side of her we were moved emotionally. But at the same time, we want to know more because India's voice is always good.' 'But at the same time, Japanese should know more about this because for a long time, India suffered this terrorism and this is terrorism supported by Pakistan, that is ... we need to tell Pakistan, they must crackdown on such kind of terrorists, not support terrorists. That is a very important message. And in this case, one by one, step by step, the Japanese has understand why India needs to deal with this terrorism and what is the Pakistan supported terrorism. So, that's why this is a very important issue.' 'But at the same time, we need Indian voice more. I personally, of course, support India strongly, of course. ...Pakistan support of terrorism has a long history. They do not think this is a wrong thing, that is a problem. We need to tell this is a wrong thing and indeed, this is suicide for Pakistan, too, because terrorists, is indeed, no one can control. So that's why this terrorist is very risky, not only against, of course, India, but in other countries, ...at the same time, Pakistan itself will suffer because they support them. This is tragic situation. They should regret it, I believe,' the expert said Satoru Nagao, praised India for targeting terrorist sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir on May 7 and called it a 'good example of punishment.' He stated that Pakistan should know that supporting terrorists is a risky strategy. When asked about his views on India targeting terror sites in Pakistan and PoJK under Operation Sindoor, he responded, 'That is responsible attack, I believe, because only terrorist camps they attack. This is very responsible because India's operation is careful manner military operation. Firstly, they attack terrorist-related facility in Pakistan carefully because this is punishment of the Pakistan support terrorists and terrorist activity. Many terrorists have died, but these terrorists were perpetrators of many terrorist in the past.' 'So, that's why this is a good example of the punishment, proper response, I think. And at the same time, Pakistan should know this is risky strategy, supporting terrorism is risky strategy because for long time the world just waits at their response towards terrorists. But now one by one India punishes each terrorist and each terrorist activity that's why the other sending the message this operation Sindoor is a very good responsible, proper response against state sponsored terrorism,' he added. In response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack, Indian Armed Forces launched Operation Sindoor in the early hours of May 7, targeting nine terror sites in Pakistan and PoJK, leading to the death of over 100 terrorists affiliated with terror outfits like the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). When asked whether international community has failed to hold Pakistan responsible for state-sponsored terrorism, the Japanese expert responded, 'That's a little bit tragic but yes people in the world start to understand Pakistan is supporting terrorists, this is a problem. But at the same time, still many people believe this is a regional issue not a world affair. So, that's why the people should know this properly and reply to the terrorists is very important. 'Recently there are too many wars in the world and there's big that's why the US without the effort of the experts or of course Indians of course, but we should take charge to tell the people to understand the situation. That is also the responsibility for us. We need to know India's right and supporting terrorism is tragic crime. And at the same time, cracking terrorists is indeed not a regional problem, this is a world problem,' Satoru Nagao said. Nagao who was awarded his PhD by Gakushuin University in 2011 for his thesis, 'India's Military Strategy' has praised India for sending a delegation to Japan to explain India's viewpoint, as people of Japan cannot get enough chances to read about it in the Indian media. He called India a 'strong country' to deal with terrorists. On a Indian Parliamentary delegation's visit to Japan, he said, 'Yeah, I think so. Because without visiting Japan, there is no chance to exchange opinion about it. So this is very clever way, I think, sending the delegation to the other country and explaining India's view, which is right view, of course, and proper view. Because Indian media for Indians. So that's why Japanese cannot get enough chance to read it.' 'Only some experts like me can access these media. But if the delegation come and explain in front of the many media experts at the same time, in this case, this is a very precious chance for them to get access to Indian viewpoint. That is very important because India is right in this case because India is a victim, but India is a strong country to deal with terrorists because of India's strong and India's right. These kind of facts people should know., even in Japan, people should know. So that is the reason this delegation contributed a lot, I believe,' Nagao said. Meanwhile, Hirose Hiromi, Political Science Professor, Kindai University, said, 'The terrorist attack is very bad, killing innocent civilians, visiting the tourist sites, nothing to do with international conflict or nothing to do with religious conflict, this kind of attack should be condemned very severely. We Japanese do not know much about the background of the conflict. I think we should know much more about the deep cause of this conflict.' The All-Party Parliamentary Delegation, led by Sanjay Kumar Jha, includes Ambassador Mohan Kumar, BJP MP Hemang Joshi, CPI(M) MP John Brittas, TMC MP Abhishek Banerjee, BJP MP Aparajita Sarangi, BJP MP Brij Lal, and BJP MP Pradan Baruah, arrived in Tokyo today. The delegation aims to brief international partners on India's response to the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack and its broader fight against cross-border terrorism while engaging with leaders in Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Singapore. (ANI)
NDTV
22-05-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
"Responsible And Proper": Japanese Strategic Expert On Operation Sindoor
Tokyo: Japanese strategic expert Satoru Nagao, a Fellow (Non-resident) at the Hudson Institute, has praised India's Operation Sindoor, calling it a "responsible and proper" response against state-sponsored terrorism. He called out Pakistan for supporting terrorism and called it a "suicide" as no one can control terrorists. The expert whose primary research area is the US-Japan-India security cooperation in an interview with ANI, termed the April 22 terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam as "terrible". As many as 26 people were killed and several others were injured in that terrorist attack The Japanese expert emphasised that India has suffered from terrorism and Pakistan supports this terrorism. He also noted that Islamabad's support for terrorism has a long history. On the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, he said, "That was terrible, of course, because even the Japanese got a chance to see what happened. In one picture, we see a picture in which (a woman is) just side of her we were moved emotionally. But at the same time, we want to know more because India's voice is always good." "But at the same time, Japanese should know more about this because for a long time, India suffered this terrorism and this is terrorism supported by Pakistan, that is ... we need to tell Pakistan, they must crackdown on such kind of terrorists, not support terrorists. That is a very important message. And in this case, one by one, step by step, the Japanese has understand why India needs to deal with this terrorism and what is the Pakistan supported terrorism. So, that's why this is a very important issue." "But at the same time, we need Indian voice more. I personally, of course, support India strongly, of course. ...Pakistan support of terrorism has a long history. They do not think this is a wrong thing, that is a problem. We need to tell this is a wrong thing and indeed, this is suicide for Pakistan, too, because terrorists, is indeed, no one can control. So that's why this terrorist is very risky, not only against, of course, India, but in other countries, ...at the same time, Pakistan itself will suffer because they support them. This is tragic situation. They should regret it, I believe," the expert said Satoru Nagao, praised India for targeting terrorist sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir on May 7 and called it a "good example of punishment." He stated that Pakistan should know that supporting terrorists is a risky strategy. When asked about his views on India targeting terror sites in Pakistan and PoJK under Operation Sindoor, he responded, "That is responsible attack, I believe, because only terrorist camps they attack. This is very responsible because India's operation is careful manner military operation. Firstly, they attack terrorist-related facility in Pakistan carefully because this is punishment of the Pakistan support terrorists and terrorist activity. Many terrorists have died, but these terrorists were perpetrators of many terrorist in the past." "So, that's why this is a good example of the punishment, proper response, I think. And at the same time, Pakistan should know this is risky strategy, supporting terrorism is risky strategy because for long time the world just waits at their response towards terrorists. But now one by one India punishes each terrorist and each terrorist activity that's why the other sending the message this operation Sindoor is a very good responsible, proper response against state sponsored terrorism," he added. In response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack, Indian Armed Forces launched Operation Sindoor in the early hours of May 7, targeting nine terror sites in Pakistan and PoJK, leading to the death of over 100 terrorists affiliated with terror outfits like the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). When asked whether international community has failed to hold Pakistan responsible for state-sponsored terrorism, the Japanese expert responded, "That's a little bit tragic but yes people in the world start to understand Pakistan is supporting terrorists, this is a problem. But at the same time, still many people believe this is a regional issue not a world affair. So, that's why the people should know this properly and reply to the terrorists is very important. "Recently there are too many wars in the world and there's big that's why the US without the effort of the experts or of course Indians of course, but we should take charge to tell the people to understand the situation. That is also the responsibility for us. We need to know India's right and supporting terrorism is tragic crime. And at the same time, cracking terrorists is indeed not a regional problem, this is a world problem," Satoru Nagao said. Nagao who was awarded his PhD by Gakushuin University in 2011 for his thesis, "India's Military Strategy" has praised India for sending a delegation to Japan to explain India's viewpoint, as people of Japan cannot get enough chances to read about it in the Indian media. He called India a "strong country" to deal with terrorists. On a Indian Parliamentary delegation's visit to Japan, he said, "Yeah, I think so. Because without visiting Japan, there is no chance to exchange opinion about it. So this is very clever way, I think, sending the delegation to the other country and explaining India's view, which is right view, of course, and proper view. Because Indian media for Indians. So that's why Japanese cannot get enough chance to read it." "Only some experts like me can access these media. But if the delegation come and explain in front of the many media experts at the same time, in this case, this is a very precious chance for them to get access to Indian viewpoint. That is very important because India is right in this case because India is a victim, but India is a strong country to deal with terrorists because of India's strong and India's right. These kind of facts people should know., even in Japan, people should know. So that is the reason this delegation contributed a lot, I believe," Nagao said. Meanwhile, Hirose Hiromi, Political Science Professor, Kindai University, said, "The terrorist attack is very bad, killing innocent civilians, visiting the tourist sites, nothing to do with international conflict or nothing to do with religious conflict, this kind of attack should be condemned very severely. We Japanese do not know much about the background of the conflict. I think we should know much more about the deep cause of this conflict." The All-Party Parliamentary Delegation, led by Sanjay Kumar Jha, includes Ambassador Mohan Kumar, BJP MP Hemang Joshi, CPI(M) MP John Brittas, TMC MP Abhishek Banerjee, BJP MP Aparajita Sarangi, BJP MP Brij Lal, and BJP MP Pradan Baruah, arrived in Tokyo today. The delegation aims to brief international partners on India's response to the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack and its broader fight against cross-border terrorism while engaging with leaders in Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Singapore.
Washington Post
20-05-2025
- Business
- Washington Post
The U.S. must break China's chokehold on our rare earth magnet supply
Rob Wittman, a Republican, represents Virginia's 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives and is former co-chair of the House Critical Minerals Policy Working Group. Nadia Schadlow is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a national security visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. The Chinese Communist Party's recent decision to restrict exports of rare earth elements and magnets stunned many pundits and analysts. But for those who have observed China's decades-long campaign to consolidate and control the rare earth industry, it was entirely predictable.
