Latest news with #IPOR
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Consumer confidence in Virginia nears record low as economic anxiety grows
Consumer confidence in Virginia nears a record low, according to a Roanoke College poll, as tariff concerns and economic uncertainty outweigh gains in wages. (Photo by) Consumer sentiment in Virginia continues to slide, reaching its second-lowest level on record, according to the latest quarterly report by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College, released Wednesday. 'While the labor market remains strong and wage growth is outpacing inflation, uncertainty is weighing heavily on consumers, particularly around tariffs,' said Alice Louise Kassens, Roanoke College's John S. Shannon Professor of Economics and senior analyst at IPOR. 'This uncertainty is reflected in both short- and long-term inflation expectations, which remain elevated despite recent easing in actual inflation rates.' The Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 63.6 in the second quarter of 2025, continuing a 13-point slide over the past six months and marking the second-lowest reading since the index began in 2011. The drop underscores growing unease among Virginians, particularly surrounding the economic consequences of new tariffs and the general direction of the national economy. Kassens warned that a continued slide in sentiment could soon translate into concrete economic consequences. 'Consumer spending, which drives nearly 70% of economic activity, has remained robust, albeit tempered,' she said. 'However, if sentiment continues to decline, we may see a pullback in spending that could slow economic growth or even trigger a recession.' That warning comes despite some signs of strength in the broader economy. The labor market remains resilient, and Virginia workers are seeing wage increases that exceed inflation. Average wage growth in the commonwealth is currently 3.8%, compared to 2.3% inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index. This gap suggests increased purchasing power for households, a key support for ongoing economic activity. Still, many Virginians remain cautious. Just 20% of respondents said their household finances are better today than they were a year ago, while 30% expect improvement over the next year. Meanwhile, 32% anticipate worsening conditions, and 59% believe the next few years will be marked by economic difficulty. Short-term inflation expectations remain stubbornly high, even as actual inflation continues to moderate. Many survey respondents indicated they were accelerating purchases of big-ticket items like refrigerators in anticipation of higher prices to come. In fact, 37% said it was a good time to buy such durable goods, citing concern over the inflationary effects of tariffs. 'Despite months of easing inflationary fears in the commonwealth over 2024, the inflationary effects of tariffs are keeping short-term inflation expectations elevated,' the report notes. 'These concerns can have a chilling effect on the economy as consumers and businesses experience difficulty in financial planning.' The Virginia Index of Current Conditions, which measures sentiment about personal finances and buying conditions today, declined 2.2 points from last quarter to 60.8. That remains slightly above the national index, a trend that continued in future expectations as well. The Virginia Index of Consumer Expectations held at 65.4 — unchanged from the previous quarter — while the national index dropped nearly 18 points to 46.5. Kassens said that disparity may point to some localized resilience. 'The divergence between Virginia and national sentiment, where Virginia remains more optimistic, suggests regional resilience, but that could be tested if inflationary and uncertainty pressures persist,' Kassens said. 'As we move into the second half of 2025, the trajectory of consumer sentiment will be a key indicator to watch.' The results are based on a representative sample of 719 Virginia adults surveyed between May 12 and May 19. The survey was conducted using a combination of phone interviews (including landlines and texts to mobile phones) and an online panel. The phone sample was drawn by Marketing Systems Group using random digit dialing, while the online panel was managed by Cint USA, Inc. Responses were statistically weighted to reflect the gender, age, and racial demographics of Virginia according to the 2023 American Community Survey. Regional quotas were also applied to ensure proportional representation across different areas of the state. About 38% of completed phone and text-to-web interviews came via mobile phones. Interviews were conducted in English, and attention checks were built into the online questionnaire to ensure quality responses. The continued decline in consumer confidence — despite economic indicators that might otherwise encourage optimism — suggests that psychological factors such as uncertainty and inflation fear may be outweighing hard data in shaping household expectations. Kassens emphasized that while wage growth and job availability remain bright spots, sentiment will be a key factor to watch as the year progresses. 'We're at a critical juncture,' she said. 'If consumers lose confidence in their ability to spend and plan ahead, it could create ripple effects that weaken an otherwise sturdy economic foundation.' SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
Express Tribune
23-05-2025
- Express Tribune
'55% of local cigarette producers evade taxes'
Listen to article The Institute for Public Opinion and Research (IPOR) released its research report today during a press briefing in Lahore. The report sheds light on the alarming rise in the illicit cigarette trade across Pakistan and the gaps in enforcing existing tobacco control laws. During the briefing, IPOR Executive Director, Tariq Junaid revealed that more than 54% of cigarette brands available in the market are in blatant violation of national laws, particularly the Track and Trace System (TTS) and Graphical Health Warnings (GHWs). He highlighted that despite the implementation of GHWs in 2009 and TTS in 2022, enforcement has been practically non-existent, creating space for the illegal trade to thrive. Cigarette packs without health warnings and without TTS stamps are openly being sold in the market. He pointed out that although legislation introduced in 2019 mandated that 60% of each cigarette pack must display a graphical health warning, six years later, 286 brands are still openly sold without any health warnings. This, he noted, is a clear breach of the law. Junaid added that, much like in other areas, the Track and Trace System appears to have failed in curbing these violations. According to the report, a survey was conducted across 1,520 retail outlets in 19 districts, identifying 413 different cigarette brands being sold. Alarmingly, only 19 brands were found to be compliant with TTS requirements while 394 brands were found without stamps. The vast majority lacked tax stamps and the legally mandated health warnings. Moreover, 332 brands were being sold below the legal minimum price of Rs162.25, with some priced as low as Rs40 — posing not just a regulatory challenge but also causing significant loss to government revenue. The report further disclosed that 55% of illicit cigarettes are produced locally without paying taxes, while 45% are smuggled from abroad. This unchecked illegal trade is causing an estimated annual loss of over Rs300 billion to the national treasury. During the session, Junaid also responded to questions related to tobacco sector regulations. He stressed that each time the government increases tobacco taxes, illegal cigarette sellers are the primary beneficiaries, as the lack of enforcement drives consumers toward cheaper, illicit tax-evading alternatives. He urged the government to take immediate and decisive action by enhancing monitoring of retail outlets nationwide, ensuring full compliance with TTS and GHWs by all manufacturers, and launching a coordinated national crackdown on the illegal cigarette trade. These actions, he stated, are critical not just for ensuring legal accountability but also for safeguarding state revenue and maintaining fair business competition. Junaid warned that this is not merely a regulatory shortfall, but a serious economic and legal crisis that demands urgent, integrated, and effective government intervention.
Business Recorder
17-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Public opinion surveys: A crucial tool for evidence-based policymaking
In an era where governance and policymaking are increasingly scrutinized, it is imperative that decisions are rooted in empirical evidence rather than assumptions or political expediency. Public opinion surveys serve as a critical tool in this regard, providing policymakers with real-time insights into public needs, concerns, and expectations. By leveraging scientifically conducted surveys, governments and institutions can align their policies with public sentiment, ensuring greater effectiveness and accountability. The power of polling in policy decisions Public opinion surveys are more than just snapshots of popular sentiment—they are powerful instruments that guide governance, assess policy effectiveness, and enhance public trust in decision-making processes. By systematically collecting and analyzing data, surveys can highlight pressing societal issues, identify policy gaps, and propose strategic interventions that resonate with the people. For instance, surveys conducted by the Institute for Public Opinion Research (IPOR) have repeatedly pointed out governance inefficiencies, yet meaningful reforms remain elusive. If Pakistan is to move towards effective governance, data-driven decision-making must become the cornerstone of public policy. The tobacco industry is a prime example of how weak enforcement of data-backed policies can lead to massive revenue losses. According to the latest research by IPOR, compliance with the Track and Trace System (TTS) remains alarmingly low. Out of 413 cigarette brands available in the market, only 19fully adhere to the system, leaving 54% of brands non-compliant. A significant portion of the non-compliant tobacco market consists of local duty-evaded brands, accounting for 55%, while smuggled brands make up the remaining 45%, further deepening the issue of tax evasion. Additionally, 13 brands are being sold both with and without TTS, highlighting serious lapses in regulatory oversight. Similarly, our study on the shifting dynamics between social media and traditional media consumption provided invaluable insights into how Pakistanis engage with news and political discourse. The findings demonstrated that younger demographics increasingly rely on digital platforms for information, whereas older generations still place their trust in television and print media. The study also revealed that while 41% of Pakistanis rely on social media for news, a significant 38% still depend on traditional media, highlighting the need for a balanced communication approach. Policies on misinformation, media regulation, and public engagement should stem from such empirical findings rather than outdated assumptions about media consumption. Most recently, IPOR's opinion poll on the one-year performance of Chief Minister of Punjab assessed governance efficiency and service delivery across all four provinces. The survey provided key insights into public sentiment, showing that public trust improves when governance delivers visible progress, with education (73%) and health (68%)receiving high approval ratings. However, it also identified employment (63%) as a major area of concern, emphasizing the urgent need for job creation policies. These findings underscore how data-driven policymaking enables leaders to address real public concerns, ensuring that resources are allocated effectively and reforms are tailored to actual needs. From opinion to action Public opinion surveys must not be seen as mere academic exercises or political tools; rather, they should be an integral component of the policymaking process. Evidence-based decision-making leads to more robust governance structures, greater public satisfaction, and long-term stability. Governments at all levels should institutionalize survey research as a standard practice for evaluating policies, measuring impact, and responding to public needs dynamically. Policymakers must embrace a culture where decisions are backed by data, not dictated by anecdotal evidence or political considerations. If governance is to be truly representative and effective, it must start with listening to the people and there is no better way to do that than through rigorous, scientific public opinion surveys. The way forward As Pakistan navigates complex economic and social challenges, adopting an evidence-based approach to governance is not just an option – it is a necessity. Public opinion surveys provide a direct channel for citizens to voice their concerns and expectations. By integrating these insights into the policy process, governments can craft responsive, effective, and sustainable policies that truly serve the public interest. In the end, good governance is about making informed decisions and informed decisions require data. The future of policymaking lies in embracing the power of public opinion research and ensuring that every policy is backed by credible evidence. It's time we recognize that the best policies are not those crafted in isolation but those shaped by the voices of the people they are meant to serve. The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners
Express Tribune
01-05-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Over Rs300b lost annually to illicit cigarette trade
Listen to article In a recent episode of The Express Tribune Podcast, in collaboration with #BehtareenPakistan, experts warned that Pakistan loses more than Rs300 billion annually due to the unchecked trade of illicit cigarettes. The conversation highlighted how tax evasion, weak enforcement of the Track and Trace system, and regulatory loopholes are crippling both public revenue and health safeguards. Speaking on the podcast, CEO of the Institute for Public Opinion Research (IPOR), Junaid Iqbal, said, 'This is not just a health issue—it's an economic crisis. When more than 40% of the cigarette market goes untaxed, the state loses the ability to fund vital services. Smugglers are filling the gap while legitimate businesses suffer.' Panelists revealed that illegal cigarette manufacturers are exploiting the system by avoiding the Federal Excise Duty and producing below the legal price threshold. These untaxed products are then sold cheaply, undercutting lawful manufacturers and contributing to a shadow economy that thrives on regulatory inaction. The podcast also explored the broader impacts of the illicit trade. Experts emphasised that this is not simply a revenue issue—it also has dire implications for public health. Consumers of illegal cigarettes are often exposed to unregulated, potentially more harmful products. In response to these challenges, the panel advocated for the urgent implementation of a fully functional track-and-trace system to digitally monitor cigarette production and distribution. They also called for tougher penalties for violators and more transparent oversight by tax authorities. Iqbal stressed, 'There needs to be a serious political will to act. The solution is not just about enforcement—it's about protecting Pakistan's economy from systemic exploitation.' The podcast concluded with a consensus that only a coordinated approach—combining technology, regulation, and awareness—can dismantle the illegal trade and reclaim lost revenue for the nation.
Express Tribune
08-03-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Maryam Nawaz outperforms other provincial CMs in governance, survey reveals
A new survey has found that a majority of Punjab residents view Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz's governance positively, particularly in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, while concerns remain over employment and inflation. The survey, conducted by the Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) across Punjab's 36 districts, revealed that 62% of respondents rated Maryam Nawaz's first year in office as 'remarkable' in addressing public issues. In education and healthcare, 73% and 68% of respondents, respectively, rated the provincial government's performance as "good" or "very good." However, 63% expressed dissatisfaction with job creation efforts, calling them 'poor' or 'very poor.' Overall, 57% of respondents believe governance standards have improved over the past year, while 17% said they have worsened. A similar 57% felt the government had effectively addressed key public concerns. According to the survey, 60% of Punjab residents believe Maryam Nawaz has outperformed the chief ministers of the other three provinces. Her most well-received initiatives include improvements in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and the "Clean Punjab" campaign. The report highlights a 15% improvement in education, 14% in healthcare, 11% in infrastructure, and 11% in cleanliness efforts. However, residents identified employment (13%), healthcare services (13%), and inflation control (12%) as the most urgent issues requiring attention. The survey also found that 53% of respondents believe Punjab's governance has improved under Maryam Nawaz compared to the previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government. The poll was conducted between February 3 and 18, gathering responses from 66,000 residents in both rural and urban areas.
