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Zawya
16-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Traders predict more volatility after markets pass tariff test: IFR
Financial markets remained remarkably orderly and liquid during the wild price swings at the height of April's US tariff tantrum, senior traders told ISDA's annual general meeting in Amsterdam on Thursday, although many predict more volatility ahead despite the recent return to calmer markets. 'The financial markets came through it very, very well,' said Jared Noering, global head of fixed income trading at NatWest. Although bid-offer spreads on bonds widened by two to three times, Noering noted that futures margins were stable and repo markets remained liquid and open for business. He highlighted the greater proportion of hedge funds clearing repo trades compared to a few years ago as a helpful factor in maintaining the calm. 'All this allowed for more resilience in the market, allowed us to weather the storm and come back from there. And I do feel like the markets are in a much better space,' said Noering. Financial markets swooned in the wake of US president Donald Trump announcement on April 2 of larger and broader-than-expected tariffs against its trading partners. The S&P 500 plunged 12% in the space of four days, 10-year Treasury yields jumped and Cboe's VIX volatility index closed at its highest level since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. Traders drew a contrast with that period and other episodes of market stress, however, confirming that trading conditions held up well despite the headline moves in asset prices. 'Liquidity has been remarkably decent in this period,' said Diederik Visser, head of swaps trading at ABN AMRO. 'In August, the rout we had in fixed income felt way more panicky than the moves we saw in April,' referring to the market turmoil in the wake of Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping 12.4% on August 5. Thomas Fielden, head of European single stock options at Optiver, said a lot of people were hedged ahead of the tariff announcement following earlier bouts of volatility such as the selloff in US technology stocks in late February after China's DeepSeek launched its artificial intelligence model. 'We thought the market was pretty well positioned for this kind of event. And actually, during the panic, if anything people's hedges rolled off and they converted to more bullish structures,' Fielden said. 'On the volatility space it was quite a different scenario than previous panics we've seen before.' Andrew Ng, group head of global financial markets at DBS Bank, said it didn't feel like a crisis and liquidity was 'still there'. 'But any big shock, I'm not so sure [that will continue],' he said. 'I think this is just the beginning [of volatility], so buckle up.' Financial markets have stabilised since the Trump administration rowed back on many (although not all) of its April tariff announcements, including a recent softening in its stance towards China. The S&P 500 is now roughly flat for the year to date, having been down more than 15% at the height of the turmoil, as a more conciliatory tone has emerged from Washington, while the VIX is back its pre-April 2 level. Calm before the storm? Several traders suggest this is merely the calm before the next storm. Noering noted how the move towards deglobalisation is 'fractionalising economies', 'causing friction' and 'upending the way we've worked... probably since World War II'. 'This is probably just the beginning of the volatility that we're probably going to see over the next four years or longer because things are changing dramatically,' he said. More immediately, Noering highlighted discrepancies between so-called soft data – which is flagging a potential slowing in the US economy – and hard data that remains fine so far. He expects the hard data to deteriorate in time as well. 'A lot of people talk about a 'shallow' recession. Whatever type of recession… it's going to be terrible for the global economy and I think we need to be ready for that in the second half of the year,' Noering said. Fielden highlighted that short-dated volatility has dropped quickly as investors anticipate a quieter period heading into summer following the Trump administration's 90-day tariff pause. However, there are some signs of traders positioning for a pickup in volatility when the impact of tariff policies starts to be felt. 'We think the [pricing of volatility in] the summer months could be a bit too complacent,' he said. Visser highlighted other challenges facing markets, including moves in short-dated euro rates trading being 'completely dominated by hedge funds'. 'I do think there is risk out there with risk moving into the unregulated space, rather than the heavily regulated banking sector,' he said. Identifying effective hedges for periods of market stress is another challenge. Visser said the easiest thing for market makers to do in this uncertainty is simply to reduce risk positions. 'That's something that we have done,' he said. Ng said diversification has been a major talking point in Asia lately amid the US tariff uncertainty. 'We have been reducing some of our [Treasury] portfolio,' he said, and switching to other currencies like Japanese government bonds, as well as euro and some Asian and Australian bonds. "I think this has not only happened [to] us. I think a lot of corporates in Asia are doing the same thing.'
Associated Press
12-05-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
Additional Keynote Speakers Announced: ISDA's 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam!
--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 12, 2025-- Join the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) at its 39 th Annual General Meeting (AGM) in Amsterdam from Tuesday May 13 to Thursday May 15, 2025. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Keynote speakers include: Other keynotes will be announced in the coming weeks. The conference will include sessions on: Additional information on the conference, including an agenda, is available on ISDA's website. An updated agenda will be available in due course. Journalists are invited to attend all social events, including the pre-conference welcome reception on Tuesday May 13 at 7:30PM. Please note that attendance at the evening events is granted on a strictly off-the-record basis and is for networking purposes only, not for reporting. Since 1985, ISDA has worked to make the global derivatives markets safer and more efficient. Today, ISDA has over 1,000 member institutions from 76 countries. These members comprise a broad range of derivatives market participants, including corporations, investment managers, government and supranational entities, insurance companies, energy and commodities firms, and international and regional banks. In addition to market participants, members also include key components of the derivatives market infrastructure, such as exchanges, intermediaries, clearing houses and repositories, as well as law firms, accounting firms and other service providers. Information about ISDA and its activities is available on the Association's website: Follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube. ISDA ® is a registered trademark of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. View source version on CONTACT: All press attending this conference must register in advance. Please send your name, affiliation, and contact details to Christopher Faimali,[email protected], +44 20 3808 9736 KEYWORD: NETHERLANDS EUROPE INDUSTRY KEYWORD: OTHER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES PROFESSIONAL SERVICES FINANCE SOURCE: International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. Copyright Business Wire 2025. PUB: 05/12/2025 06:01 AM/DISC: 05/12/2025 06:01 AM
Business Wire
24-04-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Additional Keynote Speakers Announced: ISDA's 39
--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Join the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) at its 39 th Annual General Meeting (AGM) in Amsterdam from Tuesday May 13 to Thursday May 15, 2025. Join us in Amsterdam on May 13-15 to celebrate ISDA's 40th anniversary. Share Keynote speakers include: Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England José Manuel Campa, Chairperson, European Banking Authority Luis de Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank Jens Larsen, Head of Geoeconomics, Eurasia Group Steven Maijoor, Executive Board Member and Chair of Supervision, De Nederlandsche Bank Martin Moloney, Deputy Secretary General, Financial Stability Board Sid Nadella, Director, Global Head of Capital Markets Solutions, Google Cloud Other keynotes will be announced in the coming weeks. Accredited journalists are invited to attend the event and must register in advance. Please send your name, affiliation and contact details to Christopher Faimali, cfaimali@ +44 20 3808 9736 Expand The conference will include sessions on: Navigating geopolitical risk Next steps for Basel III in the US, EU and UK Global impact of the US Treasury clearing mandate The future of the EU's sustainability agenda Financial stability and liquidity risk Managing derivatives terminations Additional information on the conference, including an agenda, is available on ISDA's website. An updated agenda will be available in due course. Journalists are invited to attend all social events, including the pre-conference welcome reception on Tuesday May 13 at 7:30PM. Please note that attendance at the evening events is granted on a strictly off-the-record basis and is for networking purposes only, not for reporting. WHEN: Conference sessions will be held on Wednesday May 14 – Thursday May 15, 2025. The pre-conference welcome reception is on Tuesday May 13 at 7:30PM. WHERE: Mövenpick Hotel Amsterdam City Centre Piet Heinkade 11, 1019 BR, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Expand Since 1985, ISDA has worked to make the global derivatives markets safer and more efficient. Today, ISDA has over 1,000 member institutions from 76 countries. These members comprise a broad range of derivatives market participants, including corporations, investment managers, government and supranational entities, insurance companies, energy and commodities firms, and international and regional banks. In addition to market participants, members also include key components of the derivatives market infrastructure, such as exchanges, intermediaries, clearing houses and repositories, as well as law firms, accounting firms and other service providers. Information about ISDA and its activities is available on the Association's website: Follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube. ISDA ® is a registered trademark of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc.
Zawya
17-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Tariff turmoil sees credit index futures break records: IFR
Activity in futures contracts that provide users with exposure to investment-grade and high-yield US corporate bonds has reached record highs in the weeks of elevated market volatility following US president Donald Trump's "liberation day" declaration on April 2 of swingeing tariffs, according to exchange group Cboe. Open interest in Cboe's high-yield corporate bond index futures hit an all-time high of US$868m across 5,223 contracts on April 9 when the "reciprocal" tariffs were imposed, while open interest for its investment-grade corporate bond index set a record on April 14 of US$515m across 3,774 contracts. Such activity marks continued positive development for a market that some believe could one day rival credit default swaps and exchange-traded funds. 'In times of market volatility, like we're experiencing now, institutional investors are increasingly seeking efficient tools to manage credit exposure and navigate uncertainty,' said David Litchfield, director, global derivatives sales at Cboe. Investors across global financial markets have scrambled to adjust positions in response to Trump's whipsawing tariff policy in recent weeks – which saw a 10% universal tariff and additional tariffs against 57 countries announced on April 2, only for the reciprocal tariffs to be granted a 90-day pause on the afternoon of April 9 for all countries except China, having come into effect at one minute past midnight that day. Amid the policy mayhem, equities plunged, government bond yields surged, credit spreads widened, and the US dollar skidded lower – fuelling demand for hedging solutions. Over the past decade, investors have become heavily reliant on CDS indices and ETFs to manage their credit risks, dampening their interest in alternative products such as credit index futures and making it hard to build sufficient liquidity. Despite the recent growth, open interest for credit futures contracts still pales in comparison to Cboe's flagship equity volatility index futures – the most actively-traded contract on the exchange – which has 333,404 contracts. That hasn't stopped competitors from entering the market for credit index futures. Last year, rival exchange operator CME Group launched a set of futures pegged to Bloomberg's credit indices, hoping its track record in other markets will prove decisive in establishing a listed derivatives market for trading US corporate debt. Open interest for CME's investment-grade credit futures sits at 1,097 contracts while open interest for its high-yield credit futures is 1,151 contracts. Futures contracts have several advantages against CDS and ETFs. To trade CDS end-users must sign an ISDA master agreement with their trading counterparty – a legal document that can take months to negotiate, creating a barrier to entry to the market. While ETFs don't require complex legal agreements to trade, they can only be purchased by stumping up the full amount of cash required, deterring some investors. Firms trading credit index futures must post margin to the exchange on a regular basis instead, which tends to be a fraction of their total investment exposure.
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- General
- Yahoo
Idaho watercraft inspection stations are open for the season. Here's what to know.
Watercraft inspectors Ron Lang, left, and Fabian Rendon, clean and dry a kayak at Centennial Waterfront Park in Twin Falls on Aug. 8, 2024. (Clark Corbin/Idaho Capital Sun) Watercraft inspection stations managed by the Idaho State Department of Agriculture are open for the 2025 season. This means all boat owners — regardless of their watercraft size, propulsion, motorized or non-motorized — must stop for mandatory inspection when traveling past an inspection station during operating hours. Inspection stations are essential to prevent invasive species, such as quagga mussels, from entering Idaho's waterways. Quagga mussels were first discovered in the Snake River near Twin Falls in 2023, and have since cost the state millions to suppress as they have the potential to outcompete other aquatic species and clog agricultural and energy infrastructure. Quagga mussel elimination efforts have also killed thousands of native fish in the Snake River, including at least 48 white sturgeon, some of which were up to 35 years old and eight feet long, the Idaho Capital Sun previously reported. 'We take this seriously': ISDA director on out-of-state boat traffic, Idaho quagga mussels 'Stopping at watercraft inspection stations and following the simple steps of cleaning, draining, and drying your watercraft are essential to ensuring Idaho's waters thrive for generations to come,' department director Chanel Tewalt said in a press release. 'It is up to all of us — boaters, anglers, and outdoor enthusiasts — to take responsibility in safeguarding our waters from invasive species.' Idaho law requires all out-of-state watercraft to be inspected and decontaminated at a watercraft inspection station prior to launch. When entering Idaho, boat owners should look for road signage and electronic message boards directing them to inspection stations. Before launching a watercraft in Idaho, nonresident owners must also purchase an invasive species sticker. Before transporting any watercraft, Idaho law requires operators to remove the drain plug and drain all water, including from internal compartments such as ballasts, bilges, live wells, and motors. All bilge and ballast plugs and other barriers that prevent water drainage must be removed and remain open while a watercraft is transported by land within the state. To prevent the spread of invasive species, watercraft owners can follow these steps: Clean all equipment before leaving any waterbody, removing visible plants and animals. Drain water from all compartments, including motors, live wells and boats. Pull the boat's bilge plug and allow water to drain. Dry all equipment thoroughly before using the watercraft in a different waterbody. In 2024, the Idaho State Department of Agriculture's Invasive Species Program performed nearly 157,000 watercraft inspections — a 44% increase from 2023. Throughout the history of the program, Idaho stations have performed over one million inspections. For more information, contact the Idaho State Department of Agriculture Invasive Species Hotline at 877-336-8676 or visit the Invasive Species of Idaho website. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
